7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Syracuse -10.5, Over/Under: 53
An ACC showdown takes centerstage tonight in Central New York, as the surging Syracuse Orange play host to the new-look Virginia Cavaliers in what could be an understated, yet high-flying offensive affair from JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, New York. It’s a new era of football in Charlottesville, where Virginia (2-1, 0-0 in ACC) looks to level up after hiring (Head Coach) Tony Elliott, who in turn looks to bring what he learned from over a decade spent at Clemson, where he had a HEAVY hand in guiding that program to outrageously successful heights. A Tigers’ alum, Elliott worked his way up the proverbial ladder of Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff, starting out as Running Backs Coach in 2011 before becoming Co-Offensive Coordinator (and primary playcaller) in 2014, where he would lead the development of (Quarterbacks) Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, while the school went on to win National Championships in both 2016 and 2018, along with making a pair of appearances in the National Final (2015 and 2019). Along the way, Elliott became one of the highest-paid assistant coaches in the country, all the while displaying a patience in sifting through the many advances from universities competing for his services, ultimately choosing Virginia last December. Of course, the Cavaliers aren’t that far removed from enjoying their own recent string of success; the program made some strides under (former Head Coach) Bronco Mendenhall from 2016-2021, improving from 2-10 in his first year at the school, to posting a 17-10 record between 2018 and 2019, cracking Top-20 in the rankings for the first time since 2007, and participating in both the 2019 ACC Championship Game and Orange Bowl. Unfortunately, that momentum came to a screeching halt during the COVID-ravaged season of 2020, with his troops mustering a mediocre 11-11 record under his watch, leading the skipper to step down not long after a 29-24 defeat to (bitter rival) Virginia Tech. Essentially, what we’re saying is that Elliott isn’t inheriting a roster without talent; (Junior Quarterback) Brennan Armstrong has been on NFL watch lists for a few years now, while the Receiving Corps is experienced, deep, and athletic, with the Defense possessing one of the better Secondaries in the league. However, how far Elliott can take this group will depend on how quickly a completely overhauled Offensive Line can develop chemistry, while the defensive front looks to adjust to a sizeable scheme change. So, how have the Wahoos faired you ask? If the first three games have been any indication, they’re still very much a work in progress.
After a solid showing in the season opener against Richmond (34-17), Virginia ran into a proverbial brick wall at Illinois, where they managed to muster a scant 222 total yards of offense with three turnovers in a 24-3 loss in Champaign. That renovated Offensive Line was overwhelmed in this matchup, paving the way for only forty-two rushing yards despite twenty-nine attempts, while relinquishing FIVE sacks in the process. Last weekend, the Cavaliers didn’t look much better against Old Dominion, needing a late 26-yard field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Brendan Farrell to escape with a 16-14 victory at Scott Stadium. For the third week in a row, Elliott’s troops committed multiple turnovers and it very nearly cost them the game, particularly after the visitors struck with a late touchdown to take the lead with just over a minute in the affair. Fortunately, they received a great kickoff return from (Sophomore Receiver) Demick Starling to the 37-yard line, where the aforementioned Armstrong quickly found (Freshman Receiver) Lavel Davis thirty yards downfield to the ODU 33-yard line. On the ensuing play, (Junior Wideout) Dontayvion Wicks drew a pass interference penalty (15 yards), and after a short Armstrong run to better spot the football, called a timeout setting up Farrell for the game-winner as time expired. In the end, the home side amassed 513 total yards, including 229 rushing yards on forty-five carries, while Armstong completed 20-of-37 passes for 284 yards. The dual threat also accounted for fifty-four of that total rushing yardage, while hooking up with (Senior Wideout) Keytaon Thompson for nine catches and 118 yards. With three games in the books, it’s clear that Elliott and his coaching staff need to clear up their charges’ issues with ball security, for five of their eight turnovers thus far have been lost fumbles, which is something that while thoroughly frustrating is also entirely coachable. As they face off against stiffer competition, they won’t be able to afford to leave so many yards on the field as they did against Richmond, Illinois, and Old Dominion. With that said, the Defense has looked great, yielding just 18.3 points per game on 349.3 total yards with five takeaways, including four in that defeat to the Illini. (Junior Linebacker) Nick Jackson was Second Team All-ACC a year ago and appears to have picked up where he left off with thirty-one tackles, a sack, and a pair of deflected passes, while (Senior Defensive Tackle) Aaron Faumui continues to be a presence in the trenches with four tackles for loss and a pair of sacks. In terms of tonight’s contest, Virginia has won each of their last three meetings with Syracuse, though this encounter marks their first since 2015, in which the Wahoos won 44-38 in Charlottesville. They’ve put together a 6-4 record against the spread in the last ten road games and are 5-5 in their last ten as an underdog. However, they’ve struggled mightily in both respects against ACC Atlantic foes on the road, owning a 1-7 (straight up) and 3-5 (against the spread) record versus such opponents. Furthermore, Elliott was a commanding 7-1 against the Orange during his time at Clemson, with that lone defeat occurring on a Friday night in Central New York back in 2017.
Meanwhile, what has shaped up to be a crucial season for Syracuse (3-0, 1-0 in ACC) has begun as well as anyone could have anticipated, with (Head Coach) Dino Babers guiding his troops to only their second perfect start through three games since he took over back in 2016. Only 32-43 (.427) in just over six years with the Orange, the pressure is on the 61-year-old to get the program back on track after a trio of disappointing campaigns. In 2018, the ‘Cuse went 10-3, winning ten games for just the second time since the turn of the century (2001) and competing in their first bowl game since 2013. However, they fell almost as quickly as they ascended, finishing 5-7 in 2019 before plummeting to a miserable 1-10 finish in 2020. While there were signs of life last year, Babers needed to make some changes in order to keep his job, and fortunately for him, it appears that those changes are paying off. Last year, a dreadful Offense improved by leaps and bounds by running the football, which was aided by the addition of (Mississippi State transfer) Garrett Shrader at Quarterback, a healthy Sean Tucker in the Backfield, and one of the most experienced Offensive Lines in the country. As a result, Syracuse improved from 92.0 yards per game on the ground to an ACC-best 214.0 yards in 2021. (Sophomore Tailback) Tucker became the first Orange rusher to top 1,000 yards in eight years, churning out 1,496 yards and twelve touchdowns, while Shrader, who is much more of a dual threat than any of his predecessors, added 781 yards and fourteen scores of his own. To improve the passing attack (153.0 yards per game last season), Babers hired (Offensive Coordinator) Robert Anae, who had previously held the same position at Virginia for the past six years, and that addition has paid immediate dividends in the early goings thus far; the ‘Cuse have logged a vastly improved 245.3 yards through the air on 8.9 yards per attempt, leading to an explosive attack that has averaged 37.0 points per game. Shrader has made the biggest leap, going from completing 52.6% of his passes a year ago to 66.2% this month, while racking up nearly half as many yards through three games (709) that he managed in twelve last season (1,445), along with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Keep in mind, that this was a kid who only tossed nine scores with four picks in 2021.
If you’re seeking proof of Syracuse’s explosive attack, then look no further than their wild, 32-29 victory over Purdue in Central New York from last weekend. Looking at that final score, we would forgive you for thinking that this game was entertaining from start to finish, but in the end, it was really rather dull until the pyrotechnics started in the final period of play. Trailing 10-9 upon entering the fourth quarter, the Boilermakers took the lead with a touchdown from (Quarterback) Aidan O’Connell, only for the aforementioned Shrader to hit back with a 46-yard strike downfield to (Sophomore Receiver) Oronde Gadsden II, followed immediately by a two-point rushing conversion from the Quarterback. Nine seconds later, the hosts widened their lead as (Junior Defensive End) Caleb Okechukwu intercepted O’Connell on a tipped pass and returned it seventeen yards to the end zone. However, the visitors wouldn’t remain quite for long, as O’Connell led them on back-to-back touchdown drives to stun the crowd at JMA Wireless Dome, retaking the lead 29-25 with just fifty-one seconds remaining in the contest. Unfortunately, a pair of unsportsmanlike penalties from Purdue meant that they were kicking off from their own 10-yard line, setting up the home side with terribly advantageous field position. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is where Shrader went to work. Two more penalties by the Boilermakers, including a controversial pass-interference call on a pass downfield that appeared to be uncatchable, continued to breathe life into the Orange, with Shrader buying time to find Gadsden once again in the end zone for 25-yard score to win the game. Though he struggled in the first half (4-of-10 for 35 yards), Shrader let it rip in the second half, passing for 146 yards and three touchdowns on 9-of-19 attempts. As a team, Baber’s troops only managed 306 total yards, but took advantage of Purdue’s mistakes, which in addition to that costly interception included a staggering thirteen penalties for 138 yards. Shrader accounted for 264 of his team’s total yards, with 112 yards attributed to Gadsden, who reeled in six receptions and those two seismic scores. Looking toward tonight’s contest, Syracuse has split their only two meetings with Virginia at what was formerly known as the Carrier Dome, though this is the first time that they’ve met at this venue as ACC opponents. Coming into this season, they have struggled mightily at home against Power-5 oppositions, losing eight of their last nine games straight up. With that said, they’ve performed well as a favorite, covering eight of their last ten when laying points, while matching that record against the spread when at home. Furthermore, under Baber’s watch they’re 6-4 on Friday nights, though they’ve dropped three of their last four such outings, including their latest, a narrow 17-14 defeat to Clemson last October.