7:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Ohio State -19.5, Over/Under: 57.5
A Big Ten battle takes center stage tonight from the Big Horseshoe, as the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes play host to the Wisconsin Badgers, in what could very well be a preview of this winter’s Big Ten Championship Game, from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. From season to season, is there a program with a more consistent identity than Wisconsin (2-1 0-0 in Big Ten)? Indeed, the Badgers have been immune to change for what feels like a century now, for no matter who dons that scarlet jersey, the game plan simply DOES NOT CHANGE. Now in his eighth year in Madison, (Head Coach) Paul Chryst runs arguably the steadiest ship in the country, though he’s no doubt looking for some growth from his troops, particularly after they look to avoid a third consecutive disappointing start to a campaign. Following a defeat to the Buckeyes back in the 2019 Big Ten Title Game (34-21), they struggled mightily in finishing just 4-3 amid the torrent of chaos that was the wild, COVID-ravaged season of 2020. Though stability returned in 2021, along with a solid 9-4 finish, Wisconsin started a miserable 1-3, due in large part to an incredibly difficult schedule featuring Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan in the opening month. Granted, their slate has been much softer in the early goings thus far, but nonetheless find themselves staring down the proverbial barrel of an ignominious 2-2 start. So, what’s the deal with the Badgers, you ask? Well, they made short work of Illinois State in the season opener (38-0), shutting out their FCS opponent in typical fashion; the hosts rushed for 221 yards on thirty-seven carries, while the Defense teed off on the visitors, yielding just 243 yards. Unfortunately, Chyrst’s charges self-destructed in a tough 17-14 loss at home to unranked Washington State, wasting a serious advantage in yardage (401-253) thanks to three costly turnovers and eleven penalties for a whopping 106 lost yards. That outcome may have dropped them from the rankings altogether, but Chryst & Co haven’t begun to panic yet. After last year’s harrowing start, they stayed the course and were ultimately rewarded for it, so we seriously doubt that this season will go off the rails even if they were to lose in Columbus tonight. So, why the optimism? Even with just eight returning starters, including three on defense, Wisconsin continues to do what they do; the Badgers have churned out 218.3 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry en route to averaging a healthy 39.3 points per game, while in turn snuffing out the run in yielding a scant 76.0 yards on 2.7 yards per rush, along with a mere 8.0 points per contest.
(Sophomore Tailback) Braelon Allen (pictured) looks like the next great ballcarrier to come through Camp Randall Stadium, following up a 1,268-yard campaign (third in the Big Ten) with 332 yards and five touchdowns through the first three games. (Clemson Transfer) Chez Mellusi is more than a solid alternative, netting 4.7 yards per carry, while the explosive Isaac Guerendo is a threat to break away every time that he touches the football. However, the difference for Wisconsin this year will be (Redshirt Junior Quarterback) Graham Mertz. By now, we all know the story with the young passer, who was the highest-ranked recruit at that position to come to Madison in ages. In place of an injured Jack Coan back in 2020, Mertz made one helluva impression in his debut, torching Illinois for FIVE touchdowns on 20-of-21 passing for 248 yards. However, rather than turn into the latest incarnation of Joe Burrow, he crumbled over the next five games with four scores and five picks, with that inconsistency carrying over into 2021. With the position solely in his hands following the transfer of Coan, Mertz turned into a turnover machine throughout the Badgers’ dismal start, completing just 59.5% of his passes with ten touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions. Though he possesses a world of potential, the fact of the matter is that after eviscerating the Illini in his debut, he’s only 12-7 as a starting Quarterback with a pedestrian 14-16 TD/INT ratio. Thankfully, the light bulb has flickered on for Mertz, who under the guidance of (new Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Ingram, who spent the last seven years coaching Receivers and Tight Ends in int he NFL for the Baltimore Ravens, has completed a much improved 71.0% of his attempts for an average of 232.3 yards on a very healthy 11.2 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns in comparison to a pair of interceptions. He’ll be in for his toughest test of the season in this trip to the Horseshoe, though if he and his teammates wish to return to the rankings, then there is no better way to do it. Of course, that’s all easier said than done, for Wisconsin hasn’t enjoyed much success against Ohio State of late (then again, who in the Big Ten has?). Losers of seven of their last eight meetings, the Badgers have also failed in five consecutive trips to Columbus both straight-up and against the spread. In the last time that these schools encountered one another on the gridiron in the regular season, Chryst’s kids trailed 10-7 in the third quarter following a blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown, only to be outscored 28-0 the rest of the way in a 38-7 drubbing. Limiting big plays will be the mandate for (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Leonhard’s unit, though turning the Buckeyes over would be even more ideal; Wisconsin has already logged EIGHT takeaways this season, with seven different players posting an interception, including three in last weekend’s 66-7 rout of New Mexico State. In lieu of tonight’s matchup, Wisconsin is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten away games and when they’ve been branded an underdog, though they’ve only won two of those contests outright when the latter designation applies.
Meanwhile, speaking of programs not changing, Ohio State (3-0, 0-0 in Big Ten) continues to be the resident juggernaut of the Big Ten, and the fact that they’re once again favorites despite coming off their first time being denied a conference championship in five years. Then again, that just speaks to the level of excellence that (Head Coach) Ryan Day has cultivated in Columbus, for he has utterly quelled any concerns of how he would carry the torch following the retirement of his predecessor, Urban Meyer. Since taking over for Meyer back in Day has amassed an insane 37-4 record (.902), with last season being his first without a trip to the College Football Playoff. While the man does a wealth of things at a high level, it’s impossible to overstate his ability to recruit, for the Buckeyes have been absolutely STOCKED with talent during his time with the program. Consider this: despite losing a wealth of talent to the NFL and entering 2021 with ZERO career passing attempts at the Quarterback position for the first time since 1952, his Offense proceeded to score the most points in the country (45.7) and average a staggering 561.7 total yards per game and 8.0 yards per play. This season, they lose a pair of first round picks at Receiver, along with a third rounder at Tight End, two First Team All-Americans on the Offensive Line, and five more draft picks on Defense, only to average 47.7 points on 565.3 total yards through the first three games thus far. The talent at Day’s disposal is ridiculous, with three different on this side of the football garnering Heisman attention prior to the campaign. (Sophomore Tailback) TreyVeon Henderson is the best of a loaded Backfield, following up a 1,272-yard/24-touchdown season in 2021 with 197 yards and three scores in three outings. Fellow Sophomore, Miyan Williams, is just as productive, leading the Buckeyes with 207 yards and a touchdown, while (True Freshman) Dallan Hayden isn’t far behind with 121 yards on twenty-one carries. At Receiver, (Sophomore) Jaxson Smith-Njigba turned heads with an outrageous 347 yards on fifteen receptions in Ohio State’s 48-45 rally over Utah in the Rose Bowl, though has thus far been overshadowed (largely due to injury) by fellow Sophomores, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Both Wideouts have topped over 320 yards and fifteen catches, with the former invoking the play of his Hall of Fame father with a team-best five receiving touchdowns. With that said, the one to watch on this unit is (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Stroud (pictured), who when it’s all said and done will likely go down as the greatest passer in school history.
With Justin Fields departing Columbus and selected eleventh overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, there was some actual concern as to how Ohio State would fair at Quarterback, where they’ve enjoyed a massive advantage over the rest of the Big Ten for the past decade. With a number of prized recruits competing for the starting job, it would be Stroud that rose above them all, and the youngster would NOT disappoint. All this kid did was go on to complete a stellar 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards on a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt, with FORTY-FOUR touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions en route to earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors and an invitation to the Heisman ceremony (he finished second). With a full season under his belt, the Sophomore has picked up where he left off, completing 72.9% of his passes for 941 yards on 11.1 yards per attempt, with eleven scores in comparison to ZERO interceptions. Last weekend, he and the Offense were in RARE form in a 77-21 humiliation of Toledo. The Buckeyes scored ELEVEN touchdowns in the affair, totaling a mind-boggling 763 yards on thirty-six first downs, rushing for nearly as many yards (281) as the Rockets had altogether as a team (301). Stroud completed 22-of-27 passes for 367 yards and five touchdowns, while his backup, Kyle McCord, got into the action with 115 yards and another score on 5-of-7 passing. After rushing for a touchdown on the opening drive, Henderson left the field of play with an undisclosed injury, though it’s not as if the hosts needed him as Hayden racked up 108 yards on seventeen carries, while Williams added another seventy-seven yards on just ten attempts. Furthermore, three different Receivers topped 100 receiving yards, and none of them were named Smith-Njigba; Egubka led with seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown, while Harrison posted six receptions for 102 yards and two scores, with (Redshirt Freshman) Jayden Ballard reeling in four balls for 113 yards and a touchdown of his own. After the game, Day immediately quelled any doubts over Henderson’s health, stating the AP Preseason All-American was dealing with a short-term ailment, and was only pulled due to the lopsided nature of the matchup. And speaking of lopsided, that’s how we’d like to characterize this matchup between the Buckeyes and Badgers. Though they’ve been the most frequent champions from their respective divisions within the Big Ten, the Scarlet & Gray have owned their West Division counterpart, besting Wisconsin in EIGHT consecutive encounters, including three conference championship games, while covering the spread in six of those contests. When they last crossed paths, it was in the 2019 Big Ten Title Game, in which Ohio State rallied back from a 21-7 halftime deficit to score twenty-seven unanswered points in the second half. As a home favorite, the Buckeyes are 33-33 against the spread over the past ten years, while posting a 47-40-1 record versus conference opponents in that regard. This will be the fourth in a five-game homestand for Day’s troops before they finally hit the road in two weeks’ time, with news out of Columbus indicating that it will indeed be a blackout tonight at the Horseshoe, adding even more hype to what should be a pivotal conference matchup for both sides.