1:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Bills -6, Over/Under: 52.5
A classic AFC East rivalry renews today, as the surging Buffalo Bills take their act down to South Beach where they face off against the surprisingly unbeaten Miami Dolphins from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. After entering the campaign as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVII, the Bills (2-0, T-1st in AFC East) have shown ZERO signs of being unworthy of that distinction, utterly demolishing two of the very best teams in the NFL from a year ago in successive weeks. Though there was plenty of hype heading into the season opener at Los Angeles, their primetime showdown with the reigning Lombardi holders was a VERY one-sided affair, as Buffalo ran away in the second half with a 31-10 victory. With the score tied at 10-10 at halftime, largely due to three turnovers from the visitors, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s troops DOMINATED the final thirty minutes of action, marching downfield to score touchdowns on their first three drives post intermission, en route to outscoring LA 21-0 and outgaining them 224-132 along the way. (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen (pictured below) led a high-flying attack that met little resistance with 413 yards of total offense and converted a franchise-record 9-of-10 third downs, completing an efficient 26-31 passes for 297 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another fifty-six yards and a score on ten carries. He and (All-Pro Receiver) Stefon Diggs connected often for eight receptions on nine targets, 122 yards, and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Defense, which ranked first in both points allowed (17.0) and total defense (272.8) a year ago, picked right up where they left off, relegating the Rams to just 243 total yards, including fifty-two of the rushing variety, while intercepting Matthew Stafford THRICE and sacking him on SEVEN occasions. (Free Agent addition) Von Miller feasted on his former team, leading his new one with a pair of sacks. From one primetime affair to another, it was more of the same in their home opener last Monday night as they welcomed the Titans (the top seed in the AFC in 2021) and proceeded to blast them in a 41-7 drubbing. With the game tied at 7-7 after the first quarter, the hosts put their foot on the gas, running off THIRTY-FOUR unanswered points to finish the game with sizable advantages in total yards (414-187), first downs (23-12), and passing yards (317-123). Allen and the Offense put those previous turnovers behind them, with the signal-caller completing 26-of-38 passes for 317 yards and FOUR touchdowns, three of which went to Diggs, who also reeled in a dozen catches on fifteen targets for 148 yards, most of which came within the first three quarters of play. As for the Defense, they forced another FOUR turnovers, while limiting (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry to a scant twenty-five yards on thirteen carries.
For those of you who frequent this column, you’re aware of how we feel about the Bills, and how they’ve basically set the modern blueprint on how to properly rebuild a franchise. Prior to McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane’s arrival in 2017, Buffalo went SEVENTEEN years without a single playoff appearance, twelve of which were losing seasons. After ending that postseason drought in their first year together, McDermott and Beane decided to take a step back, tear down the Offense and rebuild it around Allen, a small school prospect out of Wyoming whom they drafted seventh overall back in 2018. Inspired drafting coupled with patient player development is always a winning formula, with the brain trust eventually hitting a home run with the acquisition of Diggs via trade, accelerating Allen’s development exponentially. As a result, they’ve ended the Patriots’ reign of terror in the AFC East, winning back-to-back division titles for the first time since the early 90’s. Coming into this season, the only real concern was how the attack would transition from former Offensive Coordinator, Brian Daboll, who is now the Giants Head Coach, to Ken Dorsey, who spent the last four years as Allen’s Quarterback Coach. Well, as we covered earlier, the Offense hasn’t lost a step, leading the NFL through two weeks in points scored (36.0 P/G) and third down percentage (60.9%), while No. 17 has completed 75.4% of his attempts for 614 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging an insane 8.40 net yards per attempt. Given his history against the Dolphins, we don’t expect him to slow down much at all in the sweltering heat and humidity of South Beach; in eight meetings, the 26-year-old has completed 63.2% of his attempts for an average of 247.5 yards on a healthy 7.5 net yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, while rushing for another 430 yards and four scores en route to amassing a stellar 7-1 record. As a team, the Bills have won nine of their last ten games against the Dolphins straight-up, including three consecutive trips to Hard Rock Stadium and have covered the spread in three of the last four meetings. When they traveled to Miami last September, Buffalo left with a 35-0 shutout. Granted, repeating that feat could prove to be difficult this time around, due to the injury situation on defense; (Safeties) Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were limited throughout the practice week due to various ailments, while (Cornerback) Dane Jackson left Monday night’s affair with a neck injury, with (Defensive Tackles) Jordan Phillips and Ed Oliver participating lightly this week, as the latter missed the win over Tennessee with a sprained ankle.
Meanwhile, could it be that the Dolphins (2-0 T-1st in AFC East) have FINALLY figured it all out? We spoke about the malaise that their bitter division rivals endured through the first seventeen years of this century, and it’s been a similar story in Miami; the franchise has qualified for the postseason on just two occasions since 2002 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2000, with ELEVEN losing seasons to their credit. Furthermore, they did NOT enjoy a smooth offseason, as their owner, Stephen Ross, was fined heavily by the NFL after (former Head Coach) Brian Flores went postal with accusations of tampering and tanking, which Ross allegedly incentivized back in 2019 with hopes that the ‘Fins would draft early enough to select the Franchise Quarterback that they’ve been searching for since… well, since Dan Marino retired over two decades ago. Picking fifth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, the organization passed on Justin Herbert (yikes!!!) in favor of choosing Tua Tagovailoa (pictured below), who struggled mightily throughout his first two seasons in South Beach, with injuries and a poor supporting cast making things rather difficult for the lefty, leading to an icy relationship with Flores, who benched him at one point in 2021. However, while Ross was making headlines for all the wrong reasons, (General Manager) Chris Grier was hard at work bolstering the roster, with this past offseason looking like a transformative one. First and foremost, the Dolphins appear to have made an excellent hire in the form of new Head Coach, Mike McDaniel, whose offensive prowess has been a hit in the early goings of the campaign. The latest graduate from the ever-growing Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree, the 39-year-old has revolutionized a stagnant attack, that has no doubt been boosted by a slew of reinforcements. Grier spent a fortune to obtain the services of (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, shipping picks in the first, second, and fourth rounds of last Spring’s NFL Draft, along with a fourth and sixth next year in exchange for the league’s premier vertical threat, whom they inked to a four-year, $120 million contract. Furthermore, they improved the Offensive Line with (Left Tackle) Terron Armstead and (Left Guard) Connor Williams to keep Tua clean and upright, which has led to an attack that has surprised many around the league; Miami has averaged 31.0 points per game (4th Overall) on 445.0 total yards (2nd Overall), thanks in large part to a league-best 369.5 yards through the air (1st Overall). Tagovailoa has been unrecognizable in comparison to the passer we saw over the last two years, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including completion percentage (71.1%), yards per attempt (8.9), yards per completion (12.5), passer rating (116.5), and QBR (85.7), all the while leading the league with seven touchdown passes. Of course, one HUGE performance has weighed heavily on that stat line, but if last weekend’s stunning 42-38 comeback at Baltimore was any indication, then BIG things could be awaiting the ‘Fins…
If Miami does in fact advance to the postseason on the left arm of their young Quarterback, then it’s likely that we’ll look back to last Sunday’s insane performance as the turning point. This one was a tale of two halves, folks, as the visiting Dolphins fell behind 28-7 in the first thirty minutes, with the hosts running off twenty-one unanswered points in the second quarter alone. However, everything changed after intermission; McDaniel’s troops put together a textbook opening drive consisting of twelve plays and seventy-five yards, chewing up over seven minutes of game time as Tagovailoa found (Tight End) Mike Gesicki for a 14-yard score. After trading punts, Baltimore struck back with a 79-yard jaunt downfield courtesy of Lamar Jackson, only for Tua to answer with another touchdown drive to cut the deficit to fourteen points. And this is where things really got crazy. The Ravens were stuffed behind the line of scrimmage on fourth and one at their opponent’s 40-yard line, with Tagovailoa finding Hill forty-eight yards downfield just five plays later to make it a one-possession game. Forcing the home side to punt, the young Quarterback went right back to Hill, who burned an unorganized Secondary for the second time of the quarter, sprinting into the end zone on a 60-yard score to tie the game at 35-35. With time winding down, the Ravens retook the lead with a 51-yard field goal, putting the ball back in Tua’s hands for what would become the game-winning drive. The 24-year-old piloted the Dolphins sixty-eight yards in six plays, hitting (Sophomore Receiver) Jaylen Waddle for the go-ahead touchdown. In the end, Miami racked up 547 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, converting 7-of-11 third downs and each of their two on fourth, possessing the football for a commanding 34:47. Tagovailoa erupted for 469 yards and SIX touchdowns on 36-of-50 passing, with Hill totaling 190 yards and those two scores on eleven receptions, while Waddle added another 108 yards and a touchdown on four catches. It will be interesting to see if Tua can carry this momentum over to this showdown with Buffalo, for he has struggled MIGHTILY against them, losing all three meetings and completing just 56.4% of his attempts for an average of 193.0 yards with one touchdown, four interceptions, and five sacks. In last year’s 35-0 loss at Hard Rock Stadium, he fractured multiple ribs on a hit from A.J. Epenesa early in the affair, sidelining him for the following three contests. And speaking of injuries, there are plenty to talk about for Miami, who could be without (Cornerback) Xavien Howard, (Offensive Tackles) Austin Jackson and the aforementioned Armstead, along with (Defensive Tackle) Raekwon Davis, whom were all limited throughout the week of practice with various maladies.