8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chiefs -7, Over/Under: 51
Week Five comes to a close with a renewal of hostilities in the Midwest, as the Las Vegas Raiders look to continue their climb back from a slow start, while the Kansas City Chiefs have designs on creating more space between themselves and the rest of the AFC West in this primetime showdown from Arrowhead Stadium at GEHA Field in Kansas City, Missouri. After turning the page to a brand-new era of football in Sin City, 2022 was supposed to start differently for the Raiders (1-3, 4th in AFC West), who after advancing to the playoffs for just the second time in twenty years, experienced a true failure to launch with an 0-3 start. Indeed, Las Vegas were desperate to put the toxic Jon Gruden era behind them and ushered in what is for all intents and purposes New England West; (Head Coach) Josh McDaniels was hired after spending eighteen of the last twenty-one years with the Patriots, including the past ten as their Offensive Coordinator, joining (General Manager) Dave Ziegler, who also served in Foxborough as Director of Player Personnel for the last six years, along with (Defensive Coordinator) Patrick Graham, who coached Linebackers and the Defensive Line for the Pats from 2009 to 2015. The Silver & Black then set about locking down their biggest weapons, signing both (Quarterback) Derek Carr and (Tight End) Darren Waller to lucrative renewals, while reuniting the former with his collegiate BFF, (All-Pro Receiver) Davante Adams, whom they acquired via trade with the Packers. What on paper looked like an explosive Offense appeared to be anything but during the first three weeks of the campaign, as many of their weaknesses from last season have begun to reappear. In close losses to the Chargers (24-19), Cardinals (29-23), and Titans (24-22), a reworked Offensive Line continued to struggle in developing the requisite chemistry for this potentially prolific passing attack to truly ignite. McDaniels and his coaching staff are clearly searching for answers, for no team in the NFL utilized more combinations along the line throughout the first three games than the Raiders (7), and it has absolutely showed on the gridiron; Las Vegas averaged an unbalanced 346.7 total yards, including a scant 80.0 yards on the ground on a total of fifty-three attempts, while possessing the football for less than thirty minutes in each contest (keep in mind that their loss to Arizona went into overtime). With so many weapons to throw to, it was easy for McDaniels and Carr to become overly enamored with featuring them, particularly Adams, who has seen a staggering forty-seven targets thus far, but with inconsistent protection that lack of balance has made it more difficult to move the chains, let alone get into the end zone; the Raiders have converted a middling 39.6% of their third downs (14th Overall), and have scored a touchdown on a disappointing 44.4% of their red zone opportunities (28th Overall). Learning what has been described as a terribly complex playbook, Carr has completed just 61.0% of his passes and averaged a meager 6.01 net yards per attempt, with both figures representing his lowest since he was a rookie in 2014, while tossing nearly as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (6). Thankfully for all parties involved, a return to the run would spark this team to their first victory of the season, as they topped the Broncos in a 32-23 affair last weekend.
Indeed, an encounter with their bitter division rivals may have been the remedy to their ills, as the Raiders bested the Broncos for the fifth consecutive meeting, and the eighth of ten overall. This one was particularly noteworthy for McDaniels, who had previously coached Denver from 2009 to midway through the 2010 campaign before being unceremoniously fired due to an 11-17 record (.393). In fact, last Sunday’s triumph at Allegiant Stadium was his first as a Head Coach since November 14th, 2010! The two sides would trade blows throughout the first half with (Place Kicker) Daniel Carlson kicking a 39-yard field goal to give the hosts a 19-16 lead at halftime. Credit to McDaniels & Co for making the necessary adjustments during intermission, for Las Vegas controlled the second half, outgaining the visiting side 211-88, with all but thirteen of the latter’s yardage coming on one drive. Make no mistake, despite only 188 yards and no scores from Carr, this was the most complete performance from the Offense this season; the raiders amassed 385 total yards on twenty-five first downs, converted a healthy 7-of-14 third downs, and possessed the ball for a commanding 34:52. And to what did they owe the turnaround, you ask? Running the DAMN ball. In this era of prolific passing, it’s comforting to realize that pounding the rock will never go out of style, as McDaniels’ troops churned out a season-high 212 rushing yards on thirty-eight carries, with (Tailback) Josh Jacobs erupting for 144 yards and a pair of touchdowns on twenty-eight carries. Much was made of Jacobs being featured as much as he was during the preseason, with many speculating that he could be traded, and while that may yet come to pass, he nonetheless served as their driving force to victory. The Defense also benefitted immensely with the return of the run game, effectively squatting on the Broncos, who could muster just 299 total yards (85 of the rushing variety), twelve first downs, 3-of-11 on third down, and a turnover. And now we’ll see if they can in fact carry that success on over to tonight’s matchup with the Chiefs, who they have struggled against mightily to say the least; the Silver and Black have lost all but three of their last eighteen meetings with Kansas City straight-up and are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten trips to Arrowhead. No Raider has suffered more at their hands than Carr, who is a miserable 3-13 as a starter against them, completing 62.4% of his passes for an average of 242.4 yards on just 5.92 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (17) thrown against any other opponent along with thirty-nine sacks. On the injury front, (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) and (young Receiver) Hunter Renfrow are both listed as questionable with concussions, while (Tight End) Foster Moreau and (Cornerback) Rock Ya-Sin also carry that designation with ailing knees.
Meanwhile, we think that it may be time to dispense with the narrative that the Chiefs (3-1, 1st in AFC West) are in transition on the offensive side of the football following the exit of (All-Pro Wideout) Tyreek Hill. Indeed, many around the league wondered just how Kansas City would adapt to life without the NFL’s premier vertical threat, but through four games it appears to be much ado about nothing, as their high-powered attack has evolved more than anything, which must be a nightmare for the rest of the league. With roughly a quarter of the schedule in the books, (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s troops have averaged a whopping 32.3 points per game (2nd Overall) on 393.5 total yards (4th Overall), including 276.5 yards through the air (7th Overall) on 7.0 net yards per attempt (5th Overall), along with another 117.0 yards on the ground (11th Overall) on 4.5 yards per carry (15th Overall). Furthermore, they’ve converted 51.1% of their third downs (3rd Overall) and scored a touchdown on a healthy 73.7% of their trips into the red zone (4th Overall). It appears that this team has taken the challenge of performing without Hill to heart, with none looking more focused than (All-Pro Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes, who once again wears the face of an MVP candidate. Without Hill to relentlessly bomb away to and more and more opponents fielding deep shell coverages to dissuade him from indulging his instincts, Mahomes (pictured below) has matured quite a bit over the offseason, exhibiting a patience and willingness to spread the wealth that was mostly absent a year ago; thus far, the 27-year-old has completed 66.4% of his passes for an average of 276.5 yards on 7.09 net yards per attempt, leading the league with eleven touchdowns and a Total QBR of 82.3. Furthermore, his current touchdown percentage of 7.5% is nearly two percentage points higher than it was last season and stands as his highest since MVP campaign of 2018. Acquired via free agency, (veteran Receivers) JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have helped to alleviate the departure of Hill, while (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce continues to the class of his position, hauling twenty-six receptions on thirty-four targets for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The rushing attack has seen a resurgence as well, (third-year Tailback) Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally looking like the player that they envisioned him being when they selected him at the end of the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The 23-year-old has rushed for 208 yards and a pair of scores on forty-one attempts, while proving to be a reliable option in the screen game with thirteen catches on fourteen targets for 117 yards and another three touchdowns. With that said, (Rookie Tailback) Isaiah Pacheco has been a very pleasant surprise with 140 yards and a score on twenty-eight carries, leaving many to wonder how he fell to the seventh round of last Spring’s NFL Draft. After being held below their lofty standard in a narrow 24-20 victory over the Chargers and a stunning 20-17 loss at the Colts, the Chiefs turned up in a MAJOR way in their trip to Tampa last Sunday night, as they utterly embarrassed the Buccaneers in a 41-31 drubbing that wasn’t anywhere close to what the final score would indicate.
Indeed, if not for the harrowing circumstances of the destruction wrought by Hurricane Ian across the state of Florida, the gravitas of this rematch of Super Bowl LV would have been much greater. However, at the scene of his greatest defeat, it was clear from the jump that Mahomes would not be suffering a reprise of that fateful affair. The visitors started fast and furious, aided by a fumble on the opening kickoff return from hosts, with Mahomes hitting Kelce for a 16-yard strike two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. After Tampa responded with a field goal, Kansas City proceeded to march seventy-nine yards downfield in twelve plays, with Edwards-Helaire capping the possession with a three-yard jaunt up the middle of the field into the end zone. Then, after forcing the home side to punt, Reid’s charges rolled eighty-two yards downfield in eleven plays, as Mahomes made it 21-3 with a short toss to Edwards-Helaire for another score. The Bucs managed to get one back with a touchdown of their own, but after Mahomes failed to convert on a fourth and one from Tampa’s 34-yard line, (young Cornerback) L’Jarius Sneed sacked (Buccaneers Quarterback) Tom Brady forcing a fumble, which the visiting side recovered at their opponent’s 20-yard line. Six plays later, and the Chiefs hit paydirt once again. Brady would cut the deficit to eleven points heading into halftime, but that would be about it for GOAT, who could never close the gap to single digits the rest of the way. In the end, Kansas City dismantled the top-ranked Defense in the league, amassing 417 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, rushing for 189 yards on thirty-seven attempts, converting 12-of-17 third downs and possessing the football for a commanding 38:38. Mahomes took apart a unit that humiliated him eighteen months ago, completing 23-of-37 passes for 249 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while picking up another thirty-four yards on four carries. Edwards-Helaire totaled ninety-two yards on nineteen carries, while Pacheco added another sixty-three yards on eleven attempts, with Kelce nearly breaking the century mark with ninety-two yards and a score on nine receptions. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo got after Brady once again, hitting him on five occasions and a pair of recovered fumbles. Looking to tonight’s matchup with the Raiders, there have been fewer adversaries that Mahomes has enjoyed tormenting more than the Silver & Black; the prolific passer has compiled 2,546 yards, and twenty-four touchdowns in eight meetings, winning all but one. He and the Chiefs have won three straight games in this series, including each of their two meetings last season; he tossed seven touchdowns in those outings, as his team outscored them 89-23! Kansas City has won nine of their last ten games at Arrowhead Stadium straight-up, while covering six of them, equaling their number against the Raiders. On the injury front, (Place Kicker) Harrison Butker is getting closer to returning from the ankle injury that he suffered in the season opener, (Offensive Lineman) Trey Smith and the aforementioned Sneed are listed as questionable with respective pectoral and ankle maladies.