8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chargers -5, Over/Under: 45.5
Week Six comes to its conclusion in the City of Angels, as the struggling Denver Broncos look to finally sort themselves out as they travel to SoFi Stadium to face the high-powered Los Angeles Chargers in this key AFC West showdown under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Coming into this season, the Broncos (2-3, 3rd in AFC West) were a rather popular choice to unseat the Chiefs out West, what with a fresh new coaching staff along with the arrival of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Russell Wilson expected to uplift one of the most sluggish offenses in the league. Since Peyton Manning retired following the club’s triumph in Super Bowl 50, Denver has continuously failed to replace the Hall of Famer, marching out a different passer each season and meeting the same results. Let’s take a moment to run down the list, shall we? Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater were but a few of the names that had a hand in their six-year postseason drought, a period in which one of the league’s proudest franchises could muster a mediocre 39-58 (.402) record. And it’s with that said, that the new ownership hired (Head Coach) Nathaniel Hackett to fix the Offense, while paying a heavy price to acquire Wilson (pictured below) via trade with the Seahawks; (General Manager) Geroge Paton coughed up first, second, and fifth round picks in last Spring’s NFL Draft along with another first and second next year, with a number of players also included in the deal, and then proceeded to sign the 34-year-old to a five-year, $242.5 million extension, making him the second-highest paid player at his position. So, what have the Broncos received on their investment, you ask? Well, by any metric this Offense has been stunningly bad, averaging a meager 15.0 points per game (31st Overall) on 363.4 total yards (18th Overall), including 250.8 through the air (19th Overall) on 6.2 net yards per attempt (15th Overall), along with another 112.6 yards on the ground (19th Overall) on 4.3 yards per carry (19th Overall). Though they’ve been an average team when it comes to operating between the twenties, Hackett’s troops have been unbelievably poor where it counts most: in the red zone. The Broncos have scored just THREE touchdowns on FOURTEEN trips inside the 20-yard line, which equates to the lowest success rate in the NFL at 21.4%. So, what in the name of John Elway is going on in Mile High, you ask? Well, it’s clear that there is a disconnect between Wilson and the rest of the Offense, with the veteran rarely looking in synch with what on paper appears to be a solid supporting cast. However, his completion percentage (59.4%) and passer rating (82.8) are the lowest of his career, while tossing nearly as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns (4). Furthermore, his own personal performance within the red zone has left A LOT to be desired, completing 46.4% of his passes with a touchdown and an interception. Granted, the Offensive Line hasn’t played well, and (young playmakers) Javonte Williams and Tim Patrick have both landed on Injured Reserve, but that’s not enough to excuse Hackett and Wilson from the dumpster fire that this unit has been through five weeks? What happened to the innovation and nuance that Hackett implemented when he was in Green Bay? Where is the uncanny off-script playmaking that made Wilson a nine-time Pro-Bowler and a Super Bowl Champion in Seattle? The NFL clearly expected more out of Denver than this, evidenced in how they’ve put them on primetime in four out of the first six weeks, though it’s hard to argue against there being a more disappointing team in the league at this point.
When we last saw the Broncos, they offered what was easily their most miserable performance to date, self-destructing in the veritable snooze fest that was last Thursday night’s 12-9 loss at home to the struggling Colts. With two underachieving teams facing each other on a short week, what’s the worst that could happen? Well, how about nearly four hours of football without a single touchdown? Indeed, this one wasn’t for the faint of heart, folks, as the two sides combined for 681 total yards, thirty-seven first downs, four turnovers, and a dreadful 6-of-31 on third down! Seriously, there were more sacks in this contest (10) than third down conversions. It was a calamity of errors for Denver, who earned the angst of their home crowd once again, routinely snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. After being intercepted on his first drive of the fourth quarter, Wilson looked set to lead the hosts to at the least would have been a “commanding” six-point lead with 2:19 left in the affair, only to be picked off in the end zone, which in turn led to Indianapolis marching downfield for the game-tying field goal as time expired. Upon winning the ensuing coin toss, the visitors opted to retain possession and drilled another field goal, putting the pressure squarely on the shoulders of the home side, which is where things REALLY got bizarre. Traveling sixty-one yards in two plays, the home managed toto take the ball all the way down to Indy’s 5-yard line, and rather than tie the game, opted to go for the win, with Wilson completely missing his intended target in the back of the end zone, concluding what had been a frustratingly glacial encounter. Wilson finished with 274 yards and a pair of interceptions on 21-of-39 passing, with four sacks and a fumble, while rushing for another twenty-two yards on four carries. (Veteran Tailback) Melvin Gordon, who saw more action in the wake of Williams’ injury, totaled 103 yards from scrimmage on seventeen touches, while (young Receiver) Courtland Sutton hauled in fifty-four yards on seven receptions. Defensively, (Sophomore Safety) Caden Sterns picked off (Colts Quarterback) Matt Ryan twice, while (Defensive End) Bradley Chubb sacked him 2.5 times and pressured him on six occasions. Looking toward tonight’s contest, the Broncos are 6-4 in their last ten meetings with the Chargers straight-up, and 5-4 against the spread in those encounters. Furthermore, they’re 6-4 against the spread in in their last ten trips to the City of Angels, though have enjoyed wearing the label of underdogs in this series of late, sporting a 7-3 record both straight-up and against the spread in such games. On the injury front, Wilson is listed as questionable with a sore shoulder suffered on a late sack in last Thursday’s affair, though is expected to participate in this one. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about (Left Tackle) Garrett Bolles and (Cornerback) Ronald Darby, whose respective seasons have come to an end with various injuries. Furthermore, (Edge-Rusher) Randy Gregory, whom the club signed as an impact free agent over the summer, was placed on injured reserve with a knee malady, keeping him out of action for at least the next four weeks.
Meanwhile, though they were picked by many as a dark horse candidate to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVII, it appears that Chargers (3-2, 2nd in AFC West) still have a way to go before they reach that particular level. Coming into this season, the hype around Los Angeles was mainly due to what on paper is supposed to be a vastly improved Defense, though that unit has been very much a mixed through the first five weeks of action. In the offseason, (Head Coach) Brandon Staley and (General Manager) Tom Telesco opened up the check book and went shopping, adding (All-Pro Cornerback) J.C. Jackson in free agency, acquiring (former Defensive Player of the Year) Khalil Mack via trade with the Bears, and re-signed (Pro-Bowl Safety) Derwin James to a lucrative extension. Granted, this group looks amazing on paper, but as we just discussed with the Broncos, these games are won and lost on the gridiron. So, how has Staley’s Defense performed thus far, you ask? Well, they’ve yielded the third-most points in the NFL (27.2) and have once again been ravaged up front against the run, serving up 130.4 rushing yards (25th Overall) on an embarrassing 5.8 yards per carry (32nd Overall). Injuries have played their part, though they’ve largely been detrimental to the pass defense, with Jackson hindered by an ankle injury for the first few games, while the disruptive pass-rushing tandem of Mack and Joey Bosa, which was a nightmare when healthy, fell apart after the latter landed on injured reserve with a partial groin tear. Thankfully, the Offense remains capable of outscoring just about every opponent they face, even with a number of injuries of their own. The Bolts have scored 24.4 points per game (9th Overall) on394.8 total yards (5th Overall), including a whopping 295.6 via the pass (2nd Overall) on a healthy 7.10 net yards per attempt (5th Overall), thanks in large part to the continued brilliance of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert. Indeed, it has been a swift ascendance for the 24-year-old, who has carried the attack despite suffering torn rib cartilage in a Week Two loss at the Chiefs. Playing through the pain, he has produced figures in line with that of the previous campaign, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 295.6 yards per game on a career-high 7.10 net yards per attempt with ten touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions. Protection has been the key here, for no Quarterback has suffered a lower sack percentage than Herbert (pictured below), who has been sacked on a scant 2.4% of his drop-backs, which is two whole percentage points lower than last season. With that said, it will be interesting to see how long that remains the case as (Sophomore Left Tackle) Rashawn Slater is out for the rest of the season with a torn biceps suffered in a 38-10 drubbing at the hands of the Jaguars.
When we last saw the Chargers, they won their second consecutive contest following that loss in Jacksonville, outlasting the Browns in a 30-28 affair in Northern Ohio last weekend. This one figured to be an entertaining affair, particularly after their last encounter, a 47-42 shootout in Los Angeles last season, and it would not disappoint. The hosts started off hot, with back-to-back touchdown drives bookending a disappointing opening salvo in which the visitors turned it over on downs from Cleveland’s 28-yard line. However, Staley’s group would eventually get themselves together, tacking on a field goal on their next possession, and returning the favor with consecutive touchdown drives of their own, the first punctuated by a five-yard run from (Backup Tailback) Joshua Kelley, and the second via a 12-yard strike from Herbert to (versatile Running Back) Austin Ekeler. Though the home side would add another touchdown to retake the lead heading into intermission, the second half would belong to the Bolts, who outscored them 13-7 and outgained them 192-163, with a trifecta of gaffes from the Browns sealing their fate. First, Cleveland turned it over on a fourth and one from their own 34-yard line, leading directly to a field goal for LA. Second, (Quarterback) Jacoby Brissett was picked off in the end zone by (young Safety) Alohi Gilman with just 2:54 left in the contest and trailing by two points. Lastly, with an opportunity to win it, (young Kicker) Cade York missed his second attempt of the afternoon, this one from fifty-three yards out. Indeed, given the self-destructive nature of their opponent, the Chargers were fortunate to leave FirstEnergy Stadium with the win as the hosts piled up 443 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, including 213 of the rushing variety. Again, Herbert & Co proved to be too much offensively, racking up 465 yards of their own, rushing for 238 yards on thirty-four carries. Completing 22-of-34 passes for 228 yards and a touchdown, Herbert was solid, but the stars of this one was the backfield of Ekeler and Kelley, who shredded the Browns’ defense for a combined 281 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, with latter rushing for a career-high 173 yards on just seventeen attempts. The 27-year-old led the league with twenty all-purpose touchdowns last season, and it looks like he’s shaken off a lukewarm start to compile 308 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two weeks. Looking to tonight’s encounter with the Broncos, the Chargers are a middling 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games as a favorite and have covered just three of their last ten when favored against Denver. In four career meetings with his AFC West rivals, Herbert is 2-2 while completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 267.8 yards on 6.78 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns and four interceptions, which is tied for the most that he has thrown any single opponent (Patriots). On the injury front, we already touched upon the respective status of both Bosa and Slater, but Los Angeles could receive a boost in Receiving Corps with the healthy return of (Pro-Bowler) Keenan Allen, who has missed the last four games with a tender hamstring. There were reports that he could’ve participated in last weekend’s affair in Cleveland, though Staley opted to give the veteran Wideout another seven days off before returning to action. With that said, kicking could be an issue in this one, as (veteran Kicker) Dustin Hopkins has been dealing with a bruised quadriceps throughout the practice week.