8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Cardinals -2.5, Over/Under: 43.5
As we race onward to the midway point of the season, Week Seven kicks off with a trip to the desert where a pair of desperate teams thought to be contenders hope to get back on track, as the New Orleans Saints battle the Arizona Cardinals tonight from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Every season, there are a few teams that are hit particularly hard by the injury bug, curtailing any chances that they may have had of reaching their potential, and this Fall it appears that one of those teams is the Saints (2-4, 3rd in NFC South). Indeed, this campaign was always going to be a bit challenging after (longtime Head Coach) Sean Payton stepped down last January, but the ball was expected to keep moving with the promotion of Dennis Allen, who had spent the last seven years working under him as Defensive Coordinator. Though he struggled to catch on as the Raiders’ Head Coach in little over two seasons in Oakland (2012 to 2014), the 50-year-old has worked wonders in rebuilding what had been one of the worst Defenses in the league; upon arriving New Orleans ranked dead-last in points allowed and next-to-last in total yards allowed, yet improved incrementally to the point where they’ve finished in the top-ten in both categories in each of the last two years. So, how has Allen’s (pictured below) first season steering the ship gone thus far, you ask? Well, given the return of a number of weapons on the offensive side of the football, this team was expected to challenge for the division title, but that has gone by the wayside due to a rash of fresh injuries that have seen that unit fail to launch. First and foremost, (veteran Quarterback) Jamies Winston, who played well in his first season as starter before a torn ACL prematurely ended 2021 at seven games, has been sidelined for the last three weeks with what has been described as several small fractures in his back. Though (veteran Backup) Andy Dalton has performed admirably in his absence (3 touchdowns opposed to one interception), the Offense as a whole has yet to really be at full strength; (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Alvin Kamara missed a couple games with sore ribs, while (2019 Receiving Champion) Michael Thomas has been relegated to just three games thus far will a sore foot, with (free agent acquisition) Jarvis Landry missing the last two with a neck injury. Furthermore, the Offensive Line has seen some heavy losses, with (Rookie Right Tackle) Trevor Penning landing on Injured Reserve, while (Left Guard) Andrus Peat is expected to miss tonight’s affair with a chest contusion. With that said, the Offense has managed to move the football, ranking fifth in total yards (398.3), including seventh in rushing (151.5) and third in yards per carry (5.3), but has been beset by turnovers, committing the second-most in the NFL with thirteen. However, the biggest story out of the Big Easy has been the regression of the Defense, which no longer appears to be one of the best units in the league; perhaps it’s a case of Allen focusing on the bigger picture, but for whatever reason this group hasn’t lived up to expectations, allowing the fourth-most points in the NFL (26.3), while getting trampled versus the run in yielding 120.8 yards (20th Overall) on 4.6 yards per rush (20th Overall). Granted, they’ve been solid from a situational standpoint, ranking fifth on third down (33.8%) and seventh in the red zone (46.7%), but they’ve failed to produce many big plays, generating just six takeaways (23rd Overall), parlaying to a minus-7 differential through six games.
When we last saw the Saints, they failed to build momentum following their first victory since the season opener, collapsing in the second half of a 30-26 defeat at home to the Bengals. New Orleans looked strong throughout the first half play, scoring on four of their first six drives of the afternoon and taking a 20-14 lead into halftime. However, the difference between the two teams would be evident rather quickly as the hosts continued to kick field goals after intermission, while the visiting side scored touchdowns; the hosts marched downfield into Cincinnati’s red zone on four consecutive occasions and came up short of breaching the end zone each time, despite putting together three consecutive 14-play drives. On the flipside, the Defense started to get torched as the affair progressed, yielding twenty-three points on four straight possessions. With that said, they had an opportunity to win the game; following a 60-yard catch and run from the heroes of LSU’s 2019 National Championship team, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, the aforementioned Dalton managed to move the football to the 41-yard yard line of the team that drafted him back in 2011, but was sacked for a seven-yard loss setting up an ill-fated attempt on fourth-and-seventeen from midfield, with his pass to (young Wideout) Marquez Callaway failing to reach its target, ending the contest altogether. In the end, the hosts rolled up nearly 400 total yards (399) on twenty-two first downs, rushing for 228 yards on thirty-four carries, and converting a healthy 8-of-17 third downs without committing a turnover for the first time all season, though their inability to succeed in the red zone ultimately proved to be their downfall. In his third encounter with his former team, Dalton completed 17-of-32 passes for just 162 yards and a touchdown, while Kamara really got going with 124 yards from scrimmage on twenty-five touches. However, the lack of quality weapons in the passing game was VERY noticeable, as Thomas and Landry once again missed action, while (impressive Rookie Receiver) Chris Olave was sidelined with a concussion. On the injury front, Thomas, Landry, and Peat have already been branded out for tonight’s trip to the desert, along with (young Tight End) Adam Trautman and (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marshon Lattimore, though Olave has been cleared to return to the gridiron. There are also signs that Winston is getting closer to making his return as well, with Allen hinting that we could see the former number one overall pick back for next week’s encounter with the Raiders. Known for their stellar play at home over the past two decades, New Orleans has been surprisingly solid on the road of late, posting a 7-3 record straight-up in their last ten trips away from Caesars Superdome, along with a 6-4 mark against the spread. Furthermore, they’ve been a good bet against the Cardinals, covering seven of their last ten meetings. Unfortunately, it’s been a different story when they’ve been labeled an underdog by the oddsmakers, winning just two of their last ten against Arizona straight-up and covering four of them regardless of the opponent. Tonight’s matchup is their first since 2019, in which the Saints dominated the redbirds in a 31-9 victory in the Big Easy, racking up a ridiculous 510 total yards and relinquishing a scant 237.
Meanwhile, though there have been many disappointing teams this season, there is certainly an argument that the Cardinals (2-4, 4th in NFC West) are the most disappointing of the bunch, particularly when you compare their performance thus far with lofty expectations. After showing incremental improvement throughout their first two seasons together, the tandem of (Head Coach) Kliff Kingsbury and (Quarterback) Kyler Murray kicked in the door in 2021, getting off to a white-hot 7-0 start before eventually advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Sure, they backed into the postseason and were thoroughly outplayed in a 34-11 thumping at the hands of the (eventual Super Bowl Champion) Rams in the Wild Card round, but Arizona exhibited enough growth to warrant legitimate expectations that they would take yet another step in their development and become serious contenders to not just win a division crown but represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. Well, with six games in the books that hasn’t been the case, for at this point they’ll be lucky to right what for all intents and purposes appears to be a sinking ship. So, what in the name of Larry Fitzgerald is going on in the desert, you ask? If we’re being honest, this mess is on Kingsbury, and we’re surprised that it’s taken this long to happen. No disrespect to the 43-year-old, but his weekly gameplans and inability to adjust has been very telling, with opponents consistently having a beat on what he’s trying to do. Granted, one of the biggest criticisms of the Head Coach has been that his system is too simple, with not enough nuance or balance to keep Defenses honest. In this case, the numbers will tell the whole story; last season, the redbirds ranked eleventh in points (26.4) and eighth in total yards (393.8), including tenth in both passing (271.7) and rushing (122.1), while enjoying a healthy plus-12 turnover differential and converting an equally healthy 45.2% of their third downs (5th Overall), only to regress to 19.0 points per game (22nd Overall) on 365.1 total yards (16th Overall), including 245.8 via the pass (16th Overall) and 119.3 via the run (15th Overall), and converting a disastrous 34.1% on third down (28th Overall). Furthermore, that turnover differential has flipped to minus-two, making it all the more difficult for this unit to make progress. Slow starts have plagued them throughout the first six games, as Kingsbury’s troops have been outscored 69-29 in the first half this season, trailing at intermission every week. And speaking of progress, or a lack thereof, Murray (pictured below) has embodied the Offense’s struggles to this point, with the former number one overall pick taking a clear step backward from last year’s Pro-Bowl campaign; the 25-year-old has regressed in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (65.1%, down from 69.2%), yards per attempt (5.8, down from 7.9), yards per completion (8.9, down from 11.4), touchdown percentage (2.4%, down from 5.0%), and QBR (46.6, down from 57.3). Kingsbury was hired solely on his history and rapport with Murray, and the fact that they’ve become this stagnant in their fourth year together does not bode well moving forward. Granted, the Offense has been without (All-Pro Receiver) DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games due to suspension, but even without his reliable hands few could have imagined this precipitous decline on this side of the football.
When we last saw the Cardinals, they authored their most disappointing performance in a young season littered with them, falling to the Seahawks in a listless 19-9 affair in the Pacific Northwest. This one was a proverbial snooze fest for both fan bases, but for the Arizona faithful it was particularly hard to watch. After driving seventy-six yards downfield in ten plays and settling for a settling for a field goal, the visitors’ afternoon went as follows: four punts, three turnovers on downs, a lost fumble and an interception courtesy of Murray. That’s it, folks, as the redbirds finished the affair with 315 total yards on fifteen first downs, converting 4-of-16 third downs and laying an egg on four of their five attempts on fourth down. The only touchdown for the visitors came via a fumble recovery in the end zone by (veteran Safety) Chris Banjo, though their kicking woes came to bite them in the ass once again, as (replacement Kicker) Matt Amendola, who missed a potential game-tying field goal as time expired last weekend against undefeated Philadelphia, missed the ensuing extra point. Murray moved the football throughout the affair, passing for 222 yards on 23-of-37 attempts and rushing for a season-high 100 yards on ten carries, but all of that yardage appeared to be nothing more than empty calories as the diminutive dynamo failed to breach the end zone and turned it over on two occasions. (Veteran Tight End) Zach Ertz reeled in seven catches for seventy yards, while (young Wideout) Marquise “Hollywood” Brown added sixty-eight yards and a fumble on five receptions, eventually departing the gridiron with a sprained foot that Kingsbury has stated will keep the speedster on the shelf for at least a month. Needless to say, this a disappointing turn of events for the fourth-year Receiver, whom the franchise acquired via trade during the 2022 NFL Draft with the Ravens in exchange for a first-round pick, reuniting him Murray, who was his collegiate teammate at Oklahoma when the versatile Quarterback claimed the 2018 Heisman trophy. Looking to tonight’s showdown in the desert, the cardinals are a disappointing 2-8 straight-up in their last ten home games, covering the spread in just three of them along the way, while also equaling that mark in their last ten outings as a favorite. We touched upon their struggles against the Saints, and when they last met it was a veritable trainwreck for Murray, who was making only the eighth start of his professional career. That 31-9 loss featured 220 yards on 19-of-33 passing from the then-Rookie, who was completely bottled up in the run game to a mere thirteen yards on only two carries with a fumble for his troubles. On the injury front, the Offensive Line is likely to be shorthanded in this matchup, with both (Center) Rodney Hudson and (Right Tackle) Justin Pugh dealing with respective knee injuries, while the Backfield could be short on depth once again as (Tailbacks) James Conner and Darrell Williams haven’t practiced this week with their own bumps and bruises. Furthermore, kicking could continue to be an issue as (veteran Kicker) Matt Prater still hasn’t practiced with a nagging hip bruise. With that said, the aforementioned Hopkins is expected to make his long-awaited return tonight, while (veteran Receiver) Robbie Anderson will make his debut with the team after arriving via trade from Carolina following his controversial dispute with interim Head Coach Steve Wilks.