1:00 MP EST, CBS – Line: Titans -2.5, Over/Under: 42.5
In a week without many notable matchups, a pivotal AFC South clash takes centerstage as the Indianapolis Colts look to continue building momentum as they travel to Nashville to face the rested Tennessee Titans, fresh off their bye for this latest encounter at Nissan Stadium. Coming into this season, there was some legitimate dark horse buzz surrounding the Colts (3-2-1, T-1st in AFC South), who after collapsing down the stretch late last season appeared to have added the necessary reinforcements to return to the playoffs. Indeed, (Head Coach) Frank Reich and (General Manager) Chris Ballard rolled up their sleeves and got down to business in the offseason, hiring (longtime Defensive Coordinator) Gus Bradley, while adding players that fit his preferred system (Seattle Cover-3) such as (veterans) Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore. However, the biggest change came at Quarterback, where Indianapolis pivoted HARD in trading away Carson Wentz in favor of acquiring the services of Matt Ryan in a separate deal with the Falcons in the continuation of a maddening trend; in five years with the franchise, Reich has had FIVE different starting Quarterbacks, heading into each season with a new signal-caller. After achieving varying degrees of success with the likes of Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and the aforementioned Wentz, there was tepid optimism that the venerable playcaller would be able to maximize what was left of Ryan’s career. So, how has this latest spin of the QB roulette wheel played out thus far, you ask? Well, the 37-year-old hasn’t looked great by any means, though much of his struggles can be attributed to a supporting cast that has been utterly decimated throughout the first quarter of the regular season. First and foremost, the Offensive Line, which has been one of the league’s best groups over the past few years has really struggled to live up to that billing, with Ryan (pictured below) already suffering TWENTY-ONE sacks, which is over half of his total from last year, while the rushing attack has mustered just 83.7 yards (29th Overall) on 3.5 yards per carry (30th Overall). Granted, the continued absence of (reigning Rushing Champion) Jonathan Taylor has only compounded matters, though if we’re being honest, it’s not like he was very effective prior to suffering a sprained ankle that has sidelined him for the past two weeks; the 23-year-old has plummeted across the board, averaging 24.5 less yards per game and 1.5 less yards per carry than he did in 2021, and after churning out 161 yards in the season opener, has managed a meager 167 yards in the three games that he has since participated in. And thus, the table has been set for Ryan, who expected to come into a comfortable situation in which he could play complementary football behind one of the most productive rushing attacks in the NFL, only to have to carry the Offense in what is for all intents and purposes the twilight of his career. Prior to last weekend’s 34-27 rally to overcome the Jaguars (much more on that shortly), the four-time Pro-Bowler looked washed up and over the hill, completing 65.6% of his passes for an average of 275.2 yards on just 6.1 net yards per attempt with more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5), while taking twenty-one sacks along the way. However, last weekend’s performance showed us that he may still have something left in the tank, which may just spark the Colts to go on a run.
When we last saw the Colts, they made the most of their ten days off, winning consecutive games for the first time this season in coming from behind to get revenge on the Jaguars. Indeed, when these teams met in Northen Florida back in Week Two, Jacksonville put the hammer down in a stunning 24-0 shutout. This rematch would prove much more eventful, though it would be another slow start for Indianapolis, who punted three of their first four possessions and found themselves trailing 14-3 until late in the first half, which is where everything changed. Ryan would drive the home side fifty-four yards downfield in eight plays, hitting (young Receiver) Parris Campbell for a 4-yard strike to cut the deficit to four points, and after another three-and-out from the Jags, piloted Indy thirty-seven yards in nine plays, as (young Kicker) Chase McLaughlin added a 42-yard field goal to draw within one point before halftime. Though the visiting side would respond with a touchdown on their opening possession post intermission, it would be Ryan & Co who owned the second half of play, scoring touchdowns on each of their three drives, while Bradley’s Defense would stop the visitors on a key fourth-and-one from the 32-yard line, along with a two-point conversion attempt that would have seen them retake the lead on the ensuing drive. Of course, how appropriate was it that the man who has been referred to for well over a decade as Matty Ice would be the one to put this affair in the proverbial cooler? Leading by one point with 2:44 left to play, the veteran engineered an 11-play, 66-yard drive, hitting (Rookie Wideout) Alec Pierce for a 32-yard score to put the game out of reach, and in turn vaulting his team into a share of first place in the AFC South. In the end, the Colts amassed 434 total yards on twenty-nine first downs and converting 10-of-15 third downs, thanks in large part to Ryan, who accounted for 389 passing yards and three touchdowns on 42-of-58 passing, with no turnovers or sacks. The 2016 MVP also made a notable bit of history in this one, passing (Hall of Famer) Dan Marino for tenth on the all-time passing yards list (61,500). (Young Tailback) Deon Jackson performed well in Taylor’s absence, amassing 121 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on twenty-two touches, while a healthy Michael Pittman Jr. hauled in thirteen of sixteen targets for 134 yards. Defensively, Indianapolis made plenty of plays, with four different players registering a sack of Trevor Lawrence, while also recovering three fumbles on the afternoon. Looking to towards today’s encounter in Nashville, they’ll be looking to avenge yet another early loss in which their late rally ran out of gas in a 24-17 defeat at Lucas Oil Stadium three weeks ago. This was coincidentally the game in which Taylor sprained his ankle, leaving Ryan to carry them; the hosts were held to just thirty-eight rushing yards on twenty-three carries, while Ryan managed to bring them within one possession before ultimately collapsing in the fourth quarter as Taylor fumbled deep in Titans’ territory on their penultimate drive of the day. Indy has lost FIVE of their last SIX meetings straight-up, including each of the last four, though this is only the second time in the last seven encounters in which they’ve been branded an underdog by the oddsmakers. Reich’s troops have been MONEY against the spread in that regard, covering eight of their last ten overall regardless of their opponent, while posting a 6-3 record against the spread in their last ten trips to Tennessee. Furthermore, they’ve won all but two of their last ten ventures to Nissan Stadium straight-up. On the injury front, there is serious buzz that Taylor will make his return in today’s affair, which would be welcome news for a Backfield that been ravaged by injuries with fellow Tailbacks Nyheim Hines and the aforementioned Jackson nursing their own ailments. The Defense could also see a boost with the potential return of (All-Pro Linebacker) Shaquille Leonard, who has endured a ROUGH start to the campaign; the three-time All-Pro has been relegated to just one game thus far after rehabbing from offseason back surgery and then suffering a concussion and broken nose in that previous meeting with the Titans, and is currently listed as questionable for today’s rematch.
Meanwhile, flying completely under the radar are the Titans (3-2, T-1st in AFC South), who for better or worse appear to be the class of the AFC South for a third consecutive campaign. Granted, Tennessee hasn’t been anything remotely close to overwhelming yet, particularly when you consider that this team owned the AFC’s number one seed heading into the playoffs last January. With that said, we expected (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel’s charges to take a step backward this season for a variety of reasons ranging from the aging tandem of (Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill and (Tailback) Derrick Henry to an exodus of talent on both sides of the football, namely (young Receiver) A.J. Brown, whom they traded away during the 2022 NFL Draft. To their credit, this has been a VERY stubborn group, with all but one of their five games thus far being decided by single digits. Despite ranking twenty-first in points scored (19.2) and total yards (297.0), and churning out just 102.8 rushing yards per game (21st Overall) on a meager 3.7 yards per carry (27th Overall) with a two-time rushing champion in the backfield, the Offense has managed to punch above their weight class by taking relatively good care of the football with six turnovers in five games (four came in a Week Two blowout versus Buffalo), and making the most of their opportunities within the red zone; simply put, no team has been better inside the 20-yard line, scoring a touchdown on 92.3% of their trips to this part of the field. Of course, this is where Henry (pictured below) proves his worth, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring all of his five rushing touchdowns within the red zone. Coming off a campaign in which he missed the final nine games with a broken bone his foot, there were fears that the 28-year-old would soon hit the proverbial wall, what with the organization preparing themselves for turnover this offseason in drafting Brown’s replacement (Treylon Burks) as well as Tannehill’s (Malik Willis). It’s no secret that most Tailbacks look mortal once they get close to 30-years old, and with an opportunity to cut ties with him with little penalties in dead cap, we could very well be watching the last days and times of Derrick Henry in Nashville. With that said, the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year has begun to warm up after a lukewarm start to the season, averaging 100.3 yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry over the last three games, all of which were victories, including a season-high 114 yards and a score on twenty-two attempts in Tennessee’s 24-17 triumph in Indianapolis three weeks ago. In fact, Henry has enjoyed quite a bit of success against his division rivals, posting 89.2 yards on a healthy 5.2 yards per rush with seven touchdowns in thirteen career meetings. Furthermore, this particular matchup may mean more to him than the rest, for it was in last year’s second leg of their annual season series that he broke his foot. And speaking of breaking things, Vrabel’s troops have broken the hearts of many opponents thanks to their acute approach to situational football. Sure, they may give up the most passing yards in the league (287.6) and the second-most passing touchdowns (12), but they’ve relinquished a paltry 271% success rate on third down (2nd Overall) and a 50.0% rate in the red zone, which is the ninth-lowest figure in the NFL. Getting off the field on third down and not giving up touchdowns in the red zone is usually a recipe for success, one that Vrabel clearly learned from his time in New England.
When we last saw the Titans, they entered their bye week on a three-game winning streak, edging the Commanders in a narrow 21-17 victory on the road. This one was far from an offensive masterclass from either side, particularly for the visitors, who finished with just 241 total yards on fifteen first downs, and a disappointing 4-of-14 performance on third down. It was a hard day at the office for Tannehill, who completed 15-of-25 passes for just 181 yards and a touchdown, while taking five sacks for a loss forty-five yards along with thirteen hits and fifteen total pressures. However, the veteran refrained from turning the ball over, opting instead to simply manage the game while Henry powered his way through a tough Washington defensive front for 102 yards and two scores on twenty-eight carries. With that said, it was the Defense that proved to be decisive in this affair, folks, relegating the home side to seventeen first downs, forty-three rushing yards, and a paltry 1-of-11 on third down, while racking up three sacks and one CRUCIAL interception courtesy (veteran Linebacker) David Long. With the Commanders driving virtually the length of the field (they started from their own 11-yard line), Long finally stopped their progress intercepting Carson Wentz on a short pass to J.D. McKissic in the end zone with just six seconds left to play. Now in his fourth season with the club that selected him in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, the 26-year-old totaled a season-high TWELVE tackles along with his first pick of the year. Another Titan that balled out in this contest was (young Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons, who continued to flex his muscles in the trenches, totaling five tackles, 1.5 sacks, and a tipped pass, along with three QB hits and pressures apiece. Looking to tonight’s rematch in Nashville, Tennessee is 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread in their last ten outings at Nissan Stadium. However, as we stated earlier, they’ve struggled at home against Indianapolis, losing all but two of their last ten encounters straight-up and failing to cover the spread in all but three of them. Furthermore, an overwhelming majority of the money is squarely on the Titans (98%!!!), which could make for many unhappy bettors by the time this one is over. On the injury front, they may be coming off a bye week, but this team has been going through it from the season opener, with (Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Taylor Lewan joining (young Edge-Rusher) Harold Landry on injured reserve, while (Rookie Receiver) Treylon Burks landed on short term IR with the dreaded turf toe, along with (Right Tackle) Jamarco Jones and (Defensive Backs) Chris Jackson and Elijah Molden. Furthermore, (Safety) Amani Hooker is listed as questionable after suffering a concussion in that victory over Washington.