8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Bengals -3, Over/Under: 47.5
Happy Halloween from the good folks here at Oracle Sports, as Week Eight comes to a close with two football teams who look like they’re wearing pumpkins on their heads, in this primetime affair between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns from FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. Indeed, after a particularly frightening 0-2 start to the campaign, the Bengals (4-3 T-1st in AFC North) appear to slowly be rounding into the form that saw them go on a stellar run last Winter, culminating in their first Super Bowl appearance in thirty-three years. Of course, by now we’re all well-acquainted with the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover that typically afflicts the losing team from that affair, which in this case would be Cincinnati who narrowly met defeat in a 23-20 battle with the Rams. (Head Coach) Zac Taylor’s troops started slow, losing their first two games to a pair of teams that they were heavily favored against, thanks in large part to a deluge of turnovers and an inability adapt to conservative shell coverages. With the likes of (third-year Quarterback) Joe Burrow and (Sophomore Receiver) Ja’Marr Chase highlighting the attack, these cats absolutely THIRVED on big plays last year, and their opponents have clearly done their homework, proving a determination to keep everything in front of them. As we saw with the Chiefs a year ago, this could take a while to figure out, particularly when you consider that so many teams have struggled to find their rhythm following such an abridged preseason in which most star players were kept off the gridiron altogether, including Burrow (pictured below). Essentially, these teams are playing their way into shape, with Cincy being no different, though if the last two weeks have been any indication, they may have finally reached their peak fitness. After averaging just 18.5 points on 343.0 total yards with a minus-4 turnover differential through the first two weeks of play, the Bengals have put up 27.2 points on 375.4 total yards with a much healthier plus-4 turnover margin over the last five games. So, what in the name of Anthony Munoz has happened, you ask? Well, big plays, ladies and gentlemen. That’s where it starts. Cincinnati had just three scoring plays of fifteen or more yards through the first five weeks, but since then have doubled that number in the last two games alone. Burrow to Chase was one of the most lethal combinations last year, with the pair of collegiate teammates combining for eighty-one receptions for 1,455 yards and thirteen touchdowns, and after a sluggish start in which defenses were hellbent on bottling up the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, the proverbial code appears to be cracked. Over the last two games, Burrow and Chase have posted fifteen catches on twenty-one targets for 262 yards and four touchdowns, with Chase averaging 17.4 yards per reception, which is much more in line with the 18.0 that he authored as a rookie, certainly in comparison to the 10.7 he offered in weeks one through five. It’s also helped immensely that Burrow is enjoying some better protection than he did at the start of the season; after suffering an insane SEVENTY sacks in the regular and postseason, Taylor and (General Manager) Duke Tobin went about completely restructuring the Offensive Line, adding three new starters in free agency. However, it was clear from the jump that this group needed time to develop the requisite chemistry to keep the former number one overall pick clean, relinquishing THIRTEEN sacks in the first two games combined. Fortunately, in the five games since then, Burrow has taken eleven sacks, as he’s gotten rid of the football faster while Taylor and the coaching staff have devised more creative ways to beat these deep coverages with quicker throws. And if you wish to argue against that point, then ask the Falcons how they feel about the matter….
When we last saw the Bengals, they offered what was clearly their most complete performance of the campaign, hammering the Falcons in a 35-17 victory at Paycor Stadium in Southern Ohio. Simply put, this one was about as one-sided as it gets, folks, as the hosts raced out to a commanding 21-0 advantage, scoring touchdowns on each of their first four possessions of the afternoon. Burrow was the undisputed star of the show, completing 34-of-42 passes for a season-high 481 yards and three touchdowns, adding another score short reach across the goal line midway through the third quarter. Cincinnati had nearly three different Receivers crack the century mark, with Chase hauling in eight catches on eleven targets for 130 yards and a touchdown, while Tyler Boyd added another eight receptions on nine targets for 155 yards and a score, with Tee Higgins not far behind with ninety-three yards on five balls. Again, big plays defined this matchup, with the home side logging ELEVEN plays of fifteen yards or more, including three touchdowns of sixty, thirty-two, and forty-one yards. Defensively, Cincy continued to stymie the opposition, relegating Atlanta to just 214 total yards on thirteen first downs, with (Falcons Quarterback) Marcus Mariota completing 8-of-13 for just 124 yards and a touchdown, sacking him three times, and compiling six hits. Looking to tonight’s renewal hostilities with their instate rivals, the Bengals will be looking to best the Browns for the first time in five meetings. Remember: while Cincinnati embarrassed the Ravens and Steelers in their four encounters en route to their first division crown since 2015, they lost both meetings to their neighbors to the north by a combined thirty points. In fact, Burrow has yet to beat the Browns in three matchups, completing 67.5% of his attempts for an average of 334.7 yards on 6.16 net yards per attempt, with seven total touchdowns and five turnovers. From a betting perspective, the Bengals have covered all but two of their last ten outings overall, including five in a row, while matching that record in their last ten games away from home against the spread. In terms of Cleveland, they may be 3-7 straight-up in their last ten meetings but they’re a stellar 7-3 against the spread, equaling that mark in their last ten trips to FirstEnergy Stadium. On the injury front, this is a relatively healthy team, though (Defensive End) Trey Hendrickson, who leads the Defense with 17.5 sacks since arriving via free agency two Spring’s ago is questionable with a sore neck, while (young Linebacker) Logan Wilson practiced lightly throughout the week with a tender shoulder.
Meanwhile, as their opponent is catching fire following a slow start, the Browns (2-5, 3rd in AFC North) are doing exactly the opposite, fading fast following a tepid 2-1 beginning to the campaign. After a drama-filled and controversy-laden offseason even by their standards, there was optimism that Cleveland could take advantage of a soft first half of their schedule and parlay that it into a wide-open second half once (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Deshaun Watson returns in Week Thirteen following an eleven-game suspension that we’re not going to spend any more time covering. Indeed, (Head Coach) Kevin Stefanski’s troops started off with the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, Falcons, Chargers, Patriots, and Ravens, with that group of opponents posting a less than stellar combined record of 23-25 (.479). Not quite a murderer’s row, right? This of course, leads us to ask a question that we imagine has been asked frequently over the last twenty-five years in Northern Ohio: what in the name of Bernie Kosar has gone wrong for the Browns? Well, despite continuing to be one of the most prolific rushing teams in the NFL, led by the league’ s leading rusher, Nick Chubb (pictured below) at 740 yards eight touchdowns, the attack as a whole has repeatedly stumbled in trying to build a consistent passing game off the run, with most fingers pointing at (veteran Quarterback) Jacoby Brissett. Of course, Brissett was brought in to be a lengthy stopgap while Watson gets his body ready for his return to the field, and while the journeyman has enjoyed some high points this season, there have been far more lows thus far. Unsurprisingly, the 29-year-old has been nearly identical to the passer that he was last season in Miami, completing 62.7% of his passes for 226.3 yards per game on 6.08 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to five interceptions with a QBR of 57.7. However, those numbers don’t tell the whole story, for during this current four-game losing streak, his completion percentage has dipped to 60.2%, with three total touchdowns in comparison to committing six turnovers. At this point in his career, Brissett simply is what he is: a capable Quarterback who can win a few games in a backup or bridge role but is simply too limited to succeed over a long period of time. With that said, the Browns still rank tenth in points scored (24.0) and sixth in total offense (389.9), so we can’t put all the blame on the Quarterback, for the Defense owns a good deal of culpability in their struggles too. Coming into the season, there was an unfounded perception that this unit was better than it has been in recent years, and though they have the potential to be better, they haven’t shown nearly enough signs of growth that that will happen anytime soon. You would think that a Defense that fields two number one overall picks on the edge would fare better than twenty-eighth in points allowed (26.6) and sixteenth in total defense (346.0), but that’s precisely where the Browns reside. Granted, a minus-4 turnover differential has left them in a difficult place in terms of field position, but they haven’t created enough pressure to generate big plays, with just six takeaways (26th Overall), two of which being interceptions (28th Overall). Again, with the likes of Myles Garrett rushing the passer, ranking twentieth in sacks (14), thirtieth in QB hits (27), twenty-sixth in pressures (44) is simply unacceptable. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the run defense has been much worse, shipping 135.6 yards per game (24th Overall) on 4.7 yards per attempt (23rd Overall), and during this recent skid they’ve been gashed for 174.5 on 4.9 yards per carry. With such an uninspiring showing during what was supposed to be the soft portion of their schedule, we shudder to think what will happen over these next eight weeks in which they face the Bengals twice, along with the Dolphins, Bills, Buccaneers, and a rematch with the Ravens, who handed them their fourth straight defeat in last weekend’s annual trip to Baltimore.
When we last saw the Browns, their collective misery continued as they came up short in their rally at M&T Bank Stadium in a 23-20 loss to their bitter division rivals. Of course, we’re all acquainted with the history between these two franchises, so we won’t spend any more needless time explaining this particular blood feud. The afternoon started well enough for the visitors, who took the opening possession seventy-five yards in eleven plays, capped off with a short touchdown run from Chubb, who accounted for eighteen yards on the drive. After a Cade York field goal made it 10-3 at the end of the first quarter, the momentum flipped in favor of the home side, as Cleveland punted on three successive possessions before fumbling the football away on their first drive of the second half. This was nothing short of a dreadful spell for Stefanski’s troops, who could muster just twenty-two yards on sixteen plays over four possessions. Meanwhile, Baltimore got going in building a 20-10 lead midway through the third quarter. York drilled a 37-yarder to cut the deficit to one possession, but his opposite number, Justin Tucker, would extend the hosts’ lead back to ten with 11:29 left to play. The Browns struck back on the ensuing drive as (veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt made it 23-20 with a short touchdown run, and after the Ravens lost a fumble at the visitors’ 24-yard line, they attempted to tie the game with a 60-yard field goal from York, though the attempt would be blocked, virtually ending the affair altogether. In the end, Cleveland outgained their opponent 336-254, but only held possession for a mere 25:56, largely due to their inability maintain drives (2-of-11 on third down) and a pair of turnovers. Brissett completed an efficient 22-of-27 passes for 258 yards, but he never found the end zone, and was sacked five times with a pair of fumbles, one of which was recovered by Baltimore. Chubb churned out ninety-one yards and a score on just sixteen carries, while (veteran Receiver) Amari Cooper hauled in three of his four targets for seventy-four yards. Run defense was once again a point of discussion in this one, as (Defensive Coordinator) Joe Woods’ group shipped 160 yards and a pair of touchdowns on forty-four attempts, with (Ravens Quarterback) Lamar Jackson rushing for fifty-nine yards on ten carries. Looking to tonight’s matchup, maybe an encounter with the Bengals will prove to be the remedy to their ills. We touched upon how they’ve handled their neighbors to the south over the last few years, and in two meetings in 2021 they ran wild with sixty-two points and a combined 358 rushing yards, 195 of which came courtesy of Chubb. Brissett has faced Cincinnati just once in his well-traveled career, losing a narrow 24-23 affair back in 2017 when he was a member of the Colts, completing 25-of-39 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns, an interception, and four sacks. Just 3-7 in their last ten games straight-up, the Browns are 4-6 in those games against the spread and are a disappointing 3-7 in their last ten outings against the spread at FirstEnergy Stadium. On the injury front, Cleveland lost (emerging Tight End) David Njoku for two-to-five weeks with a high ankle sprain, which is a setback for a passing game that had invested more in him this season. In seven games, the 26-year-old had totaled thirty-four catches for 418 yards and a touchdown, which would have put him on pace to set career marks in each f those categories if not for this injury.