8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: 49ers -8, Over/Under: 43.5
Week Eleven comes to its conclusion south of the border, as the surging San Francisco 49ers and the potentially shorthanded Arizona Cardinals take their act to Mexico City for the first leg of their renewal of hostilities. Though they’re only sitting one game above .500, there is an awful lot of juice building behind the 49ers (5-4, 2nd in NFC West), who when it is all said and done, may very well find themselves as the premier powerhouse in the NFC. After all, this is a team that typically finishes strong, as was the case last season when they won eight of their last eleven contests en route to a surprise trip to the NFC Championship Game, where they very nearly toppled the (eventual Super Bowl Champion) Rams. So, why is there so much optimism around the Niners, you ask? Well, any notions of this campaign being a transitional one with the shift to (Sophomore Quarterback) Trey Lance was quelled two games into the season when last year’s third overall pick shattered his ankle, leading to (veteran Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo resuming his role as QB1. Throughout the offseason and preseason, there was a sense that the team would be better suited maximizing their championship window with the 31-year-old under center, with his return to the proverbial cockpit signaling their intent on contending in 2022. Say what you will about Jimmy G, he’s been nothing if not a winner; since arriving via trade midway through the 2017 season, he is 39-19 (.672) as the starter, with the club going a dismal 8-20 (.285) without him on the gridiron. Steady if not unspectacular, Garoppolo has been a calming influence on the offense, which overcame some early injuries to key players to receive a MAJOR boost at the trade deadline in the form of (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Christian McCaffrey. Hampered by injuries over the last two seasons in Carolina, McCaffrey (pictured below) was happy to return to his collegiate stomping grounds where his plethora of talents have already been put to good use by (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan, whose father coached his father back in the 90s with the Broncos. In three games in San Francisco, he’s posting 96.0 yards from scrimmage on 5.3 yards per touch, with four total touchdowns, even throwing for one 31-14 bullying of the Rams three weeks ago. Coupled with (Pro-Bowlers) Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Trent Williams, this unit has the potential to become a bonafide JUGGERNAUT under Shanahan’s watch, which if last weekend’s 22-16 victory over the Chargers was any indication (which we’ll get into shortly), could become a reality over the second half of the season. Another positive sign has been a stout Defense getting healthier with each passing week. Even with a litany of injuries, no unit has given up fewer yards than the 49ers (280.6). (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Nick Bosa has been borderline dominant, with 9.5 sacks, twenty-four QB hits, and thirty-one pressures, along with eleven tackles for loss, while (Sophomore Safety) Talanoa Hufanga has flourished within (Defensive Coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, leading the team with four interceptions, returning one for a touchdown.
When we last saw the 49ers, they flexed their muscles in a gritty comeback win over the Chargers, rallying back an early 13-3 deficit that was due in large part to a failure to finish. After their opening 14-play, 67-yard drive ended with a Robbie Gould Field Goal, (Young Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk was stripped of the football on the first play of their ensuing possession, with San Francisco stalling on their following two drives, which resulted in three-and-outs. Fortunately, Shanahan’s troops turned the tide with a 9-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a short reach at the goal line by Garoppolo shortly before halftime, while their opening possession post intermission resulted in another Gould Field Goal. The Niners would continue bullying the Bolts throughout the second half, manufacturing a 14-play, 77-yard drive capped shot McCaffrey touchdown to finally take the lead, which they would never relinquish. In the end, this one wasn’t really as close as the final score would lead you to believe, as the hosts held significant advantages several categories, including total yards (387-238), first downs (22-12), rushing yards (157-51), and time of possession (36:59). Garoppolo finished the night completing 19-of-28 passes for 240 yards and that rushing score, while McCaffrey compiled seventy-seven yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on eighteen touches. (Young Tailback) Elijah Mitchell, who had missed the previous eight weeks due to injury, returned with a bang, leading the team with eighty-nine rushing yards on eighteen carries. The Defense was excellent in this one, particularly during the second half, where they held a high-powered Chargers attack to a scant fifty-seven yards and zero points, with the aforementioned Bosa logging four tackles, four pressures, three tackles for loss, and a sack. Looking to tonight’s trip to Mexico City, the 49ers have only won three of their last ten meetings with their division foes straight-up, while covering the same number against the spread. Furthermore, they’re only 2-8 against the spread in their last ten encounters with the Cardinals when favored, which is the case tonight. With that said, San Francisco has covered the line in five consecutive meetings with their NFC West brethren. On the injury front, Shanahan & Co lost (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Arik Armstead last weekend to a foot injury that will sideline him an indefinite amount of time, which seriously reduces the depth along the Defensive Line given Javon Kinlaw’s status on injured reserve and Samson Ebukam sitting out that matchup with the Chargers with an ailing Achilles. Tonight’s matchup will mark only the sixth time that the NFL has ventured south of the border, with this particular matchup between the Niners and Cards serving as a rematch of the first affair contested at Estadio Azteca, with Arizona winning that battle rather comfortably, 31-14 way back in 2005.
Meanwhile, oh, what a difference a year has made for the Cardinals (4-6, 3rd in NFC West), who this time last season owned the best record in the NFL. Indeed, these redbirds look almost unrecognizable in comparison to the one that ended a five-year postseason drought last Winter, which has led to (Head Coach) Kliff Kingsbury’s seat getting warmer with each passing week. So, what in the name of Larry Fitzgerald has happened in the desert, you ask? Well, it’s been a confluence of issues that have contributed to Arizona’s woes, and while they’ve suffered their fair share of injuries and were without the services of (All-Pro Receiver) DeAndre Hopkins (pictured below) for the first six games due to suspension, most will lay the blame at the feet of Kingsbury, who despite signing an extension in the offseason may have finally hit the proverbial wall. The 43-year-old was a curious hire to say the least, particularly when you consider his mediocre CV at the collegiate level and lack of NFL experience, and though he has managed a middling 28-30-1 (.474) record during his time with the Cards, his teams have exhibited a consistent knack for crumbling down the stretch. In the months of November, December, and January, his troops have mustered a miserable 10-18 (.357) mark. However, unlike its predecessor, this season has not featured a strong start, with a wildly uneven nature characterizing their play on the gridiron. Simply put, slow starts are killing the Cardinals, who have been nothing short of dreadful during the first half of games thus far; Arizona has scored just seven offensive touchdowns in first halves en route to being outscored 91-130 thus far, but in their six losses that margin has been even more dire (-40). The play calling has been heavily criticized, with the offense able to move the football only after falling behind by so many points, which is generally when defenses start to play more conservatively. The biggest victim has been (Quarterback) Kyler Murray, who after looking like a legitimate MVP candidate for half of last season, has regressed in 2022, with his completion percentage (66.7%, down from 69.2%), touchdown percentage (3.3%, down from 5.0%), yards per attempt (6.0, down from 7.9), yards per completion (9.0, down from 11.4), net yards per attempt (5.16, down from 6.84), yards per game (240.9, down from 270.5), and QBR (47.1, down from 57.3) in serious decline. Furthermore, he’s simply not throwing the ball downfield, with his intended air yards per attempt clocking in at 6.6 (down from 8.0 a year ago), while his completed air yards per attempt (4.2) is down nearly two whole yards. Making matters worse is a nagging hamstring injury that he suffered two weeks ago, which caused him to miss last weekend’s matchup against the Rams (more on that shortly) and could prevent him from starting tonight. Needless to say, this is a disappointing period of time for the Cardinals, who no sooner than welcoming back the likes of Hopkins and (veteran tailback) James Conner, now find themselves without the foundation of their attack, along with (veteran Tight End) Zach Ertz, who was lost for the campaign with a torn ACL.
When we last saw the Cardinals, (veteran journeyman) Colt McCoy took over for the absent Murray in a battle of backup Quarterbacks, leading his team to a 27-17 victory to keep them on the fringes of playoff contention. After exchanging field goals on each of their opening drives, the visitors would go on to outscore Los Angeles 14-0 before halftime, with Conner jaunting into the end zone for the first, while McCoy hit (veteran Receiver) A.J. Green for a 6-yard strike on the latter. The hosts would cut the deficit to seven points in the third quarter, but Conner would once again hit paydirt restore their 14-point lead, which they wouldn’t relinquish the rest of the way. In the end, this wasn’t an offensive exhibition by any means, with both sides finishing well below 300 yards of total offense, including a combined 144 of the rushing variety. The difference int he affair ultimately proved to be turnovers, with (Rookie Defensive End) Myjai Sanders strip-sacking John Wolford leading to a recovery from (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) J.J. Watt, and later (Pro-Bowl Safety) Budda Baker intercepting the opposing Quarterback midway through the fourth quarter. As it turned out, McCoy did a little more than simply manage the game, completing 26-of-37 passes for 238 yards and a touchdown, developing a solid rapport with Hopkins and (fellow Wideout) Rondale Moore, who together combined for nineteen receptions on twenty-seven targets for 192 yards. Looking to tonight’s match with the 49ers, the redbirds have held their own in recent times against their division rival, winning and covering all but three of their last ten meetings. Furthermore, they have absolutely thrived from a betting standpoint when branded as an underdog in this series of late, owning an 8-2 record against the spread. With that said, there are some particular trends working against them; Arizona has covered the spread in just one of their last seven games against the rest of the NFC West, while traditionally struggling in Week Eleven (1-5-1 ATS). Kingsbury’s troops did win and cover each of their two meetings last season, a 17-10 slugfest in the desert followed by a 31-17 victory in Santa Clara. If he’s able to go tonight, Kyler Murray is a career 2-3 against the Niners, completing 67.4% of his attempts for 221.4 yards per game on just 5.61 net yards per attempt, with eight total touchdowns and two interceptions. Hopkins has thrived in five career meetings, hauling in forty-one receptions for 458 yards and three scores. On the injury front, both Murray and Hopkins were limited throughout the practice week with tender hamstrings, though the latter is expected to play tonight, while the former will once again be a game time decision. McCoy turned up on the injury report after last weekend’s trip to Los Angeles with a sore knee, and if both he and Murray are unable to perform, then it will be Trace McSorley making the first start of his young career. The 27-year-old tossed four passes in the season opener and hasn’t seen the field since.