12:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Ohio State -7.5, Over/Under: 57
We’ve finally come to the end of the regular season, and that means it’s time for Rivalry Week where the schedule once again defers to the greatest rivalry in college football, as the third-ranked Michigan Wolverines travel to Columbus to battle the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in a renewal of hostilities that once again features HEAVY playoff implications. For the third time in the last five years, the winner of this showdown will be headed to the Big Ten Championship Game, while this also represents the second consecutive year in which both teams are ranked within the top-six of the CFP rankings. After a season in which Michigan (11-0, 8-0 in Big Ten) finally got over the proverbial hump and defeated their immortal adversaries for the first time in a decade thus advancing to and winning their first league championship since 2004 and participating in their first College Football Playoff since its inception back in 2014, it would have been easy for the Wolverines to simply sit on their hands feeling content with themselves, though that was never going to be the case with (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh running the show, particularly after he parlayed that success into a lucrative new contract extension. Indeed, the reigning AP Coach of the Year has been right back at it throughout a campaign that saw his troops replace many stars (and not to mention coaches), only to once again make it to their annual date with the Buckeyes with a perfect record. So, what in the name of Bo Schembechler has happened in Ann Arbor, you ask? With nine returning starters back on Offense, the attack has been even better averaging 39.4 point per game (9th in FBS) on 452.6 total yards (23rd in FBS), thanks in large part to their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, rushing for a whopping 243.8 yards per contest, the fourth-most in the country. Of course, this is going to be the topic of discussion for today’s game, for there is a growing likelihood that the Maise & Blue could be without by far and away the biggest weapon in their arsenal, (Sophomore Tailback) Blake Corum, who left last weekend’s narrow 19-17 victory over Illinois (more on this one shortly) with an apparent knee injury. Needless to say, this would be a MAJOR loss for Michigan; the diminutive bowling ball brought some sorely needed speed to the Wolverines rushing attack last season, churning out 952 yards and eleven touchdowns on a healthy 6.6 yards per carry, including eighty-seven yards on only six attempts in last year’s watershed 42-27 victory over Ohio State. Now RB1 in Ann Arbor, Corum (pictured below) has topped 100 yards rushing in eight consecutive games, ranking third in the country with 1,457 yards and eighteen touchdowns on 5.9 yards per rush, accounting for 54.3% of his team’s rush offense. It’s no coincidence that in an affair in which he was forced to depart the playing field, that the Wolverines’ streak of four consecutive games of 200+ rushing yards came to an end, with their Offense as a whole struggling mightily to escape a much-improved Illinois side. In the event that Corum can’t play, then look for (fellow Sophomore) Donovan Edwards to pick up the slack; the bigger Tailback has worked well in tandem with the more explosive Corum, totaling 471 yards and four scores on a stellar 6.7 yards per carry, while also serving as a more consistent presence in the passing game with fourteen catches for 179 yards and two more touchdowns. This is also a BIG game for ((Sophomore Quarterback) J.J. McCarthy, who took over for Cade McNamara after the latter struggled in the first two games of the season. Though he saw action in parts of eleven games last year, completing 57.6% of his passes for 516 yards, five touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, it was McNamara who helped end the drought against the Buckeyes last fall, with the younger McCarthy attempting one pass in the affair. With that said, McCarthy is bigger, possessing a stronger arm and is much more mobile than his predecessor, which led to Harbaugh (a former Quarterback himself) making a change that has by and large paid off handsomely; McCarthy has settled into his role as QB1 seamlessly, completing a much improved 66.8% of his passes for 1,952 yards on 7.9 yards per attempt with fourteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, while rushing for another 213 yards and three scores, as McNamara’s season officially ended two weeks ago after undergoing knee surgery.
When we last saw Michigan, they managed to survive the loss of Corum and a spirited effort from Illinois in a tightly contested 19-17 affair at the Big House. In what was nothing short of a defensive slugfest, the hosts rallied back from a 17-10 deficit in the third quarter on the strength of three straight field goals courtesy of (Senior Kicker) Jake Moody, the last of which came with just twelve seconds left in the game to keep their playoff hopes alive for another week. Indeed, Corum’s absence in the second half was readily apparent in the Wolverines’ inability to breach the end zone in the second half, which flies in the face of what ranks as the eighth-best red zone offense in the nation (93.2%). Harbaugh’s charges were forced to go for it on fourth down on four different opportunities in the second half, converting three of them, which again points to their struggles without Corum, who had 108 yards and a touchdown before making his exit, while the aforementioned Edwards missed the game altogether with an undisclosed injury. Without that trademark balance that we’ve come to associate with Harbaugh’s teams, McCarthy had a hard day at the office, completing just 18-of-34 passes for 208 yards, though to is credit refrained from making any crucial turnovers. Credit goes to the Defense for taking control of the game and shutting out the Illini for the entire fourth quarter, relegating them to just forty-six total yards over their last four possessions of the afternoon. (Defensive Coordinator) Jesse Minter is the third different DC in the last three years for Michigan, arriving by way Harbaugh’s pipeline with his brother, John, with the Baltimore Ravens. Saturday’s showing snapped a six-game streak in which the Wolverines had held their opponents below 300 total yards, though their run of relinquishing fewer than twenty points did manage to reach seven straight games. Looking to today’s showdown at the Horseshoe, Michigan is a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten outings, though a solid 7-3 against the number when on the road. They haven’t been an underdog much lately, and they haven’t been great when that has been the case, covering four of their last ten in that regard and just one of their last six as a road underdog of three points or less, which may be the case if Corum (and Edwards for that matter) are active. Furthermore, they have covered five straight lines following a game in which they failed to do so, which is the case today. The last time that the Wolverines traveled to Columbus was not a pleasant experience for anyone wearing a white jersey as the visitors allowed the most points ever scored in this historic series. Trailing 24-19 at halftime, Harbaugh’s troops were stunned seventeen unanswered points in little over five minutes of action, en route to getting blasted 62-39 back in 2018. If Michigan were to win today, it would mark their first victory at Ohio State in TWENTY-TWO years. On the injury front, we’ve covered Corum and Edwards’ situations, but it remains to been if either (Junior Tight End) Luke Schoonmaker or (Sophomore Receiver) A.J. Henning will be ready to go, with both players questionable after missing the last two outings with undisclosed issues.
Meanwhile, if you think that there is anything other than vengeance on the minds of Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 in Big Ten), then you really don’t understand the dynamics of this bitter feud, as the Scarlet & Gray saw their hopes of returning to a third consecutive playoff and second straight national final shatter in that aforementioned trip to Ann Arbor. Let’s put this into proper context, folks; the Buckeyes may lead the all-time series 52-48-4 (.519), but have absolutely OWNED it of late, winning seventeen of the last twenty since 2001, including EIGHT in a row before last fall’s defeat, which was the longest streak for either side. Needless to say, that was a bitter pill for everyone in Columbus to swallow, and they’ve no doubt had this game circled, highlighted, and underlined for a year now. And as it turns out, both teams enter this latest affair ranked in the top-four, which is the first time that that has been the case since 2006, in which (Heisman winning Quarterback) Troy Smith led his team to a thrilling 42-39 victory at the horseshoe, leading to an appearance in the national championship game. Maybe it’s just us, but there is a serious sense of deja vu at play here; the Buckeyes sit at second in the CFP rankings and are virtually assured of a place in the playoff if they prove victorious this afternoon and take care of business next weekend in Indianapolis, where they will be heavily favored against whomever they face, led by none other than another likely Heisman Finalist, (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Stroud. A year ago, Stroud (pictured below) was the first True Freshman to start opening day for Ohio State in school history and proved to be worth the hype, claiming Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors en route to being one of four players invited to New York City for the Heisman ceremony on the strength of completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards on 10.1 yards per attempt with forty-four touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions. Projected to be the first Quarterback selected in next spring’s NFL Draft, there were considerably high expectations for Stroud this season, and while much of his supporting cast has succumbed to injury he has continued to perform at a high level. Let’s take a moment to run down the injury list, shall we? (Head Coach) Ryan Day has been without (Preseason All-American Receiver) Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the last eight games due to an ongoing hamstring injury, while (leading rusher) Miyan Williams has missed the last two games with a lower body injury. Granted, there is still plenty of talent surrounding Stroud, which he has put to good use; the Sophomore has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,991 yards on 9.7 yards per attempt with thirty-five touchdowns in comparison just four interceptions. The Offense as a whole has continued to be prolific, averaging 46.4 points (2nd in FBS) on 492.7 total yards (8th in FBS), which parlays to a very healthy 7.32 yards per play, which is the most in the country. (Sophomore Wideout) Marvin Harrison Jr. has emerged as one of the most lethal pass-catchers in the nation, reeling in sixty-five receptions (3rd in Big Ten) for 1,037 yards (8th in NCAA) and eleven touchdowns, the most in the league. On the opposite side of the football, Jim Knowles has settled in nicely as the new Defensive Coordinator, with his aggressive approach returning the Buckeyes to a top-ten Defense, allowing just 16.9 points (10th in FBS) on 283.4 total yards, with thirty-one sacks and seventeen takeaways. (Sophomore Defensive Lineman) J.T. Tuimoloau has been a wrecking ball for the Bucks, with 8.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, a pair of interceptions, and a touchdown return that completely flipped the momentum in a 44-31 victory on the road at thirteenth-ranked Penn State, which would have been their closest call of the campaign had it not been for last weekend’s trap game special at Maryland, which we’re going to get into three… two… one…
When we last saw Ohio State, they may have caught themselves looking ahead to today’s renewal of hostilities with Michigan, for they were forced to work hard to dispose of a pesky Maryland side that simply would not go away. Though they trailed at halftime 13-10, the Buckeyes opened the second half with seventeen unanswered points, and though the Terrapins managed to close the gap to three points, they couldn’t get any closer than that as Day’s troops finished them off in a 44-31 win that was harder than it needed to be. The hosts met little resistance in moving the football throughout the evening, posting more total yards (402) than visitors, having no issues throwing it with 318 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, as the Terps frantically tried to retake the lead with forty-five seconds left to play, (Junior Linebacker) Zach Harrison came up HUGE with back-to-back sacks of Taulia Tagovailoa on successive plays, stripping the Quarterback of the football with (fellow Linebacker) Steele Chambers scooping it up and jaunting into the end zone for an 8-yard score, sealing the victory. In the end, Stroud & Co amassed 401 total yards on twenty-six first downs, with (Freshman Tailback) Dallan Hayden erupting for 146 rushing yards and three touchdowns on twenty-seven attempts in place of the injured Williams. As for Stroud, he was happy to take a backseat to the ground game, completing 18-of-30 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown, with (Sophomore Receiver) Emeka Egbuka hauling in six passes for eighty-two yards, while the aforementioned Harrison Jr. added another five receptions for sixty-yards. Tagovailoa may have torched the Buckeyes, but he sure did pay for it as Knowles’ unit sacked him five times, with Harrison closing the affair out with those two on the final drive. Looking to today’s affair, Ohio State is a middling 5-5 in their last ten games against the spread, though have covered the line all but one of their last four games at the Horseshoe. With that said, they’ve covered the number in just one of their last five meetings with Michigan in which they’ve been favored. 10-7 against the spread versus the “Team Up North” in their last seventeen encounters, last season’s 42-27 defeat in Ann Arbor undoubtedly left a mark; the Buckeyes trailed 14-13 at halftime, only for their defense to collapse in the second half, allowing the Wolverines to score touchdowns on each of their first four possessions after intermission. Indeed, defense was optional in this one, as both teams totaled over 450 yards of offense, though this was the game that ultimately sealed the fate of (former Defensive Coordinator) Kerry Coombs, who saw his troops relinquish 487 total yards, including a season-worst 297 of the rushing variety. Stroud did have a field day in this one, completing 34-of-49 passes for 394 yards and a pair of touchdowns, cementing his invitation to NYC.