8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Colts -2.5, Over/Under: 39.0
Week twelve comes to a crescendo with a trip to the Midwest where the struggling Indianapolis Colts search for a way to salvage their season against another fading side, the Pittsburgh Steelers, on Monday Night Football from Lucas Oil Stadium. This season was always going to be a transitional one for the Steelers (3-7, 4th in AFC North), who are embarking on a bold new era of football in western Pennsylvania following the retirement of (longtime Quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger, who during his 18-year tenure won a franchise record 178 games, winning eight division titles, advancing to twelve playoffs, including three Super Bowls, hoisting a pair of Lombardi trophies. Needless to say, those are BIG shoes to fill in Pittsburgh, with the club taking a very open-minded approach to finding his successor; (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin entered training camp with a proverbial QB competition that lasted all the way into the preseason, consisting of (longtime backup) Mason Rudolph, (free agent acquisition) Mitch Trubisky, and (2022 twentieth overall pick) Kenny Pickett. Though Trubisky initially won the starting job, he wouldn’t hold onto it for very long, with the younger Pickett supplanting him midway through a week four clash with the Jets. Granted, the offense hasn’t been great no matter who has been QB1, with (Offensive Coordinator) Matt Canada’s unit ranking twenty-eighth in scoring (17.0), twenty-seventh in total offense (330.6), twenty-fourth in passing offense (222.8), next-to-last in passing touchdowns (7) and dead-last in net yards per attempt (5.16). Sure, Pickett has been more accurate than Trubisky, but he hasn’t been immune to the growing pains of being a rookie in the NFL; considered the most pro-ready prospect coming out of the collegiate ranks, the former Pitt Panther has tossed five more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (3), and though his mobility is a useful tool, he has also been sacked twenty times, or in other words, 7.8% of his drop-backs, which ranks twenty-third among players that have started at least three games. With that said, a renovated Offensive Line hasn’t done a great job of protecting him or opening enough paths in the run game to ensure any kind of balance on this side of the football, with the Steelers churning out a modest 107.8 yards per game (22nd Overall) on 4.2 yards per carry (23rd Overall), parlaying to a third down success rate of 37.6% (22nd Overall) and a red zone percentage of 48.4% (26th Overall). Now, Tomlin may be able to stomach all of this had his Defense lived up to their typical lofty standard, but that hasn’t been the case either; Pittsburgh ranks twenty-sixth in points allowed (24.4), twenty-eighth in total defense (375.5), thirty-first in pass defense (272.1), and thirtieth in net yards per pass allowed (7.1), while no team has shipped more passing touchdowns (22). Last year it was a porous run defense and this year it’s been the pass defense, though a lot of that can be attributed to the absence of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt (pictured below), who missed eight straight weeks with a partially torn biceps. Simply put, this was a HUGE loss for the Steel Curtain; from 2018 to 2021, no player in the league registered more sacks than Watt (65.0), who also forced a whopping TWENTY-ONE fumbles during that span. The hope in Pittsburgh is that his return can help incite a late turnaround, though the likelihood of that happening is slim at best with two meetings with bitter division rival, Baltimore, along with a rematch with Cleveland, who handled them in their previous encounter. Again, this all has to be rather difficult for Tomlin to stomach, for the 50-year-old has NEVER finished with a losing season during his sixteen years with the franchise, posting an NFL record FIFTEEN straight winning seasons. Well, they’re two losses away from that becoming a reality, though as we stated in the opening, this was always going to be potentially tough campaign, though how they build from this will be the true test of their character as a team.
When we last saw the Steelers, they failed to build upon the momentum from their 201-0 victory over the Saints two weeks ago, falling 37-30 in an entertaining affair with the Bengals. When these teams met in the season opener, Pittsburgh made the most of forcing a season high FIVE turnovers to escape with a 23-20 victory in Cincinnati, and though they managed to pick off Joe Burrow twice in this one, they couldn’t slow down their high-powered offense enough to sweep the series. After punting on their opening drive, the hosts scored on their next four possessions, leading 20-17 at halftime. However, the second half was a different story altogether, as the visitors outscored them 20-10 post intermission, with Tomlin’s troops punting on five of seven drives and totaling a meager fifty-two yards before what amounted to a 72-yard consolation drive ending with a short Najee Harris touchdown run with forty-five seconds left. When it was all said and done, their pass defense was torched for 355 yards and four touchdowns, putting their opponent in position to convert a third down on just nine occasions, which is a sign that they had little trouble finding big plays downfield. Pickett struggled for 265 yards and a touchdown on 25-of-42 passing, while taking a pair of sacks, seven hits, and twelve pressures. Harris, who hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success in his sop campaign, is finally starting to come on of late, topping ninety rushing yards for the second consecutive contest, compiling a total of 116 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns. Tomlin’s Defense logged just two sacks of Burrow, a half of which was attributed to Watt, who was responsible for one of the best interceptions that you’ll see, snaring a low pass right out of the air at the line of scrimmage. Looking to tonight’s matchup, the Steelers have won seven consecutive meetings with the Colts dating back to 2011, covering the spread in all but one of their last five encounters. Furthermore, they have covered the number in three straight affairs against Indianapolis when branded as an underdog. Relevant to tonight’s matchup, Pittsburgh has been more successful than any other franchise on Monday Night Football, owning a 54-31-1 record (.627), while Tomlin has gone an insane 19-4 (.826) in such games. On the injury front, Pittsburgh is getting healthier, though they could still be without (Cornerback) Akhello Witherspoon and (Linebacker) Robert Spillane, who were both limited throughout practice this week with respective hamstring and back ailments. (Defensive Tackles) Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi were rested throughout the week, which is normal at this juncture of the season, though (veteran Center) Mason Cole has been dealing with a nagging foot, leaving his status at questionable for tonight.
Meanwhile, their opponent may have a worse record, but the Colts (4-6-1, 2nd in AFC South) are enduring a far more disappointing season due to the fact that they at least had aspirations of not only winning their division, but perhaps even making a play at a trip to the Super Bowl. However, with eleven games in the books it has been painfully evident that Indianapolis is far closer to undergoing a rebuild than it is to contending. So, what in the name of Peyton Manning is going in Indy, you ask? Well, coming into the campaign, the club once again took another spin at the proverbial QB roulette table, this trading away the disastrous Carson Wentz and acquiring the services of (veteran Quarterback) Matt Ryan in separate trades, making the latter the fifth different passer in as many years for a franchise that has enjoyed lengthy runs with Hall of Famers at the position. Despite being 37-years old, Ryan was supposed to represent a clear upgrade over Wentz, though nothing has gone according to plan in Indianapolis, who fired (head Coach) Frank Reich after a listless 26-3 defeat at New England dropped the team to 3-5-1. Now, we can certainly argue whether or not Reich actually deserved his fate, certainly after (owner) Jim Irsay basically mandated that Ryan be benched in favor of (Rookie Quarterback) Sam Ehlinger due to being fearful of owing the veteran $18 million in guaranteed money next year if he passes a physical and remains on the roster next March. Either way, the Colts didn’t fare any better with Ehlinger under center, which wasn’t surprising given their problems run MUCH deeper than a simple switch at Quarterback. First and foremost, what has been one of the strongest Offensive Lines over the past few years has completely collapsed upon itself, with the running game mustering a mediocre 98.7 yards (26th Overall) on 4.1 yards per carry (25th Overall) a year after ranking second in the NFL in both of those categories. Of course, this has played into the struggles of (All-Pro Tailback) Jonathan Taylor, who led the league in carries (332), rushing yards (1,811), and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021. Turf toe and a high ankle sprain have made it difficult for Taylor, who has topped 100 rushing yards on just two occasions thus far, with one of those coming against the worst run defense in the NFL (Houston) and that game ended in a tie. Without that balance, the Offense struggled to build a passing game off it, which has led to a slew of lows for Ryan, who has offered the worst touchdown percentage of his career (2.8%), his lowest net yards per attempt (5.74) going hand-in-hand with his highest sack percentage (7.5%). So, with that said, it’s obvious that Reich was fired, right? What was far from obvious was his replacement, with Irsay bypassing former head coaches on his stuff such as Gus Bradley and John Fox in favor of (ESPN analyst) Jeff Saturday. Now, this one was nothing short of a headscratcher, folks, for despite enjoying a stellar career as the Colts’ Center from 1999 to 2011, he possessed ZERO coaching experience on either the collegiate or professional levels, creating a bit of a firestorm in the media. However, Saturday (pictured below) shocked the sporting world when he guided his troops to a stunning 25-20 victory at the Raiders two weeks ago. So, what did he change, you ask? Obviously, he reappointed Ryan as QB1, and simplified the Offense, which included a back-to-basics approach on the ground, which is unsurprising given his pedigree in the trenches. Indianapolis has rushed for 306 yards in the last two games alone, which is a sign that at the very least he knew what was ailing his team. Is this sustainable? Probably not, but Saturday has been nothing but honest in stating that he’s been promised absolutely nothing beyond the end of the season, where he may or may not have a position within the franchise moving forward in what is likely to be a full rebuild.
When we last saw the Colts, they very nearly managed to run their record under Saturday to 2-0, though collapsed down the stretch in a spirited 17-16 defeat against the Eagles. Facing the team with the league’s best record was always going to be a tough task for Saturday & Co, and to their credit, they gave Philadelphia everything they could handle over the course of the afternoon. The hosts set the tone early, taking the opening drive of the game seventy-five yards downfield in ten plays, chewing up over five minutes of clock as Taylor punctuated the possession with a one-yard jaunt into the end zone. Though they would add just two more field goals over the next six drives, Bradley’s Defense would continue to vex the visitors during the stretch, relinquishing only three points and 144 total yards until the beginning of the fourth quarter. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is where everything changed. With their eighth possession stalling out at Philly’s 32-yard line, (young Kicker) Chase McLaughlin missed a 50-yard field goal, teeing up the visiting side to travel sixty yards downfield to paydirt to make it 13-10 early in the fourth quarter. Then, the home side gave them the ball right back as Taylor fumbled away possession at midfield, though Bradley’s unit would return the favor, stripping A.J. Brown of the ball and recovering it at 32-yard line. From there, Ryan and Taylor would march all the way down to the 5-yard line, though would have to settle for a McLaughlin field goal to make it 16-10 with 4:42 left in the affair. Unfortunately, the Eagles would strike back, though were aided immensely by a crucial 39-yard pass interference penalty on third-and-two, with Jalen Hurts strolling into the end zone to take their first lead of the afternoon, while the Colts would turn it over on downs under thirty seconds later. In the end, Indianapolis proved it could trade blows with the best, but it simply wasn’t enough, compiling just 284 total yards on fourteen first downs, rushing for ninety-nine yards on twenty-six carries and converting just 5-of-15 third downs. Ryan completed 23-of-32 passes for 213 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers, though was under duress throughout the game, suffering four sacks, eight hits, and eleven pressures, while Taylor totaled ninety-four yards from scrimmage twenty-five touches and that opening touchdown, though it’s hard to argue that his lost fumble didn’t breathe new life into Philly. It all wasted another solid performance from the Defense, which bottled up one of the more balanced attacks in the league, limiting Philadelphia to 314 total yards, including 190 passing yards, while racking up a pair of takeaways, three sacks, four hits, and seven pressures. (Veteran Edge-Rusher) Yannick Ngakoue was very present in this one, totaling 1.5 sacks, three pressures, and a forced fumble. Looking to tonight’s matchup with the Steelers, the Colts are looking for their first win in this series in over a decade, while posting a 25-19 (.568) all-time record on Monday Night Football, though they’ve dropped eight of ten such outings. Being a favorite hasn’t been kind to Indianapolis of late, who have covered just three of their last games when giving points, particularly against Pittsburgh who they’ve failed to cover three straight outings against when favored. A Pennsylvania native, Ryan has never beaten the Steelers in three tries, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 282.3 yards on 6.63 net yards per attempt, with more sacks (8) and as many turnovers (3) as touchdowns. On the injury front, there are a plethora of questionables for Saturday, including the likes of Ngakoue, (Defensive Tackle) DeForest Buckner, (Center) Ryan Kelly, (Receiver) Parris Campbell, and (Defensive End) Kwity Paye, while (All-Pro Linebacker) Shaq Leonard has been placed on injured reserve due to lingering pain following offseason back surgery.