8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Bills -5.5, Over/Under: 44.5
Week Thirteen kicks off with a battle between familiar foes, as the Buffalo Bills continue their venture away from home as they travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots, with both teams recuperating from spirited Thanksgiving affairs. Coming into this season, the Bills (8-3, 1st in AFC East) were the popular choice by many not only to win the AFC but go on to deliver the franchise that elusive Lombardi trophy that they’ve longed for. For the most part, they’ve lived up to those lofty expectations, establishing themselves as one of the true contenders within what has been a top-heavy conference. Indeed, Buffalo has answered the few concerns over the legitimacy, behind a high-powered Offense that continues to impress now under a new playcaller for the first time in six years, while the NFL’s top-ranked Defense from last season counts itself among the league’s elite despite suffering several notable injuries. After (longtime Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll took over the Giants, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott promoted (Quarterbacks Coach) Ken Dorsey, and while there was initially some speculation over the transition, the attack has been as lethal as ever, ranking second in both points (28.1) and total offense (426.8). Of course, it helps to have (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen on the field, for there have been few players that have thrived in carrying such a load; the 26-year-old is averaging a career-high 289.4 yards through the air, while also serving as the team’s leading rusher (561), netting an NFL-best 6.9 yards per attempt, en route to accounting for a staggering 341.0 yards from scrimmage, the most in the league by a healthy margin. However, there is a growing concern that the Bills rely on his exploits a little too much, though if there is anything to be worried about it is the health of his right elbow, which he sprained late in a 27-17 victory over the Packers. Initially feared to miss time, Allen has appeared a bit shaky over the last few weeks, tossing more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4), leading to a league-worst eleven picks, while Buffalo has gone 2-2 during that span. Granted, he’s been inclined to tuck it and run more than ever, topping seventy-five rushing yards in three of his last four outings, but he’s also taken twelve sacks in the process, giving this unit a less-than efficient feel to it. With that said, there are suddenly greater concerns on Defense, where the injuries are really starting to pile up. (Safeties) Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have both missed plenty of time with various injuries, while (three-time All-Pro Linebacker) Von Miller left last week’s affair in Detroit (more on that shortly) with what is being described as a sprained knee. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR turn of events, for Miller was signed to a lucrative contract (six years, $120 million, 51.4 in guarantees) in the Spring after winning the second Super Bowl of his stellar career and was viewed as the missing piece for a Defense that struggled to finish off the Chiefs in that wild finish at Arrowhead last January. Miller (pictured below) has certainly been impactful for McDermott & Co, logging eight sacks, a dozen QB hits, and twenty-five pressures in eleven games, though his impact has extended to the mentality of a young group that needed that edge in order to take that final step towards a Lombardi. Reports out of Western New York have been murky to say the least, with no particular timetable for the 32-year-old’s return, though the fact that he avoided tearing his ACL must be a relief for their rabid fanbase.
When we last saw the Bills, they survived the loss of Miller and a spirited effort from the Lions to finally leave the state of Michigan with a hard-fought 28-25 victory on Thanksgiving Day. After being forced to flee to Detroit last week thanks to an unreal snowstorm back home, Buffalo became the first team to win games in consecutive weeks at Ford Field since, well… since the Lions did it SIX years ago, which really tells you everything you need to know about the trajectory of these two franchises. With that said, the hosts entered this game riding a three-game winning streak, and they gave McDermott’s troops everything they could handle in this one. After trading punts on their opening drives, business picked up for both sides, with the Lions bookending a lost fumble at midfield with a pair of lengthy touchdown possessions, while the Bills ran off seventeen consecutive points heading into halftime with a narrow 1-14 lead. Things would slow down in the second half, with a (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver sacking Jared Goff in the end zone for a safety being the only score of the third period, though the home side would retake the lead with a quick touchdown drive early in the fourth. However, Allen & Co would have enough, engineering a 14-play, 90-yard drive culminating in a 5-yard score from the MVP candidate to (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs to make it 25-22 with 2:40 left to play. Detroit would tie the contest with a 51-yard field goal, leaving just twenty-eight seconds for Allen to work, but as we’ve seen already this year, that’s still too much, as he connected with Diggs for a 36-yard reception on the first play of the drive, before keeping it in his own hands and rushing for another twelve yards on the next two plays, setting up (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass’ game-winner from forty-five yards out. In the end, the visiting side amassed 401 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, rushing for 164 yards on twenty-nine attempts, while converting a healthy 7-of-12 third downs and possessing the football for 31:26. It wasn’t easy for Allen by any means, completing just 24-of-42 passes for 253 yards with a pair of touchdowns along with an interception, a fumble, and three sacks, though made the difference on the ground with seventy-eight yards and another score on ten carries. Diggs offered seventy-seven yards and that aforementioned touchdown on eight receptions, while (versatile Tailback) Isaiah McKenzie made his impact in the passing game with six catches, ninety-six yards and Allen’s other touchdown pass. Defensively, they did a solid job of matching muscle with one of the toughest Offensive Lines in the NFL, yielding ninety-six rushing yards on twenty-eight carries, while sacking Goff twice and hitting him on ten occasions. Looking to tonight’s trip to Foxborough, the Bills are looking for their third consecutive victory at Gillette Stadium, including last January’s 47-17 romp in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo exercised a plethora of demons in this one, scoring touchdowns on their first SEVEN drives of the night, amassing 482 total yards, as Allen surgically eviscerated the Pats’ Defense, completing 21-of-25 passes for 308 yards and FIVE touchdowns. The Bills are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games on the road, along with an inspiring 3-1 in their last five trips to New England. With that said, they have covered the number in just one of their last six games against opponent with a winning record. On the injury front, we covered Miller’s situation, and he will indeed be sidelined for this affair, though the front seven could be in further flux without the services of (Linebacker) Tremaine Edmunds and (Defensive Ends) Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who are listed as questionable with various bumps and bruises. (Starting Center) Mitch Morse has also been dealing with a sore elbow and ankle, leaving his status uncertain as well.
Meanwhile, it really is a new day in the NFL when the Patriots (6-5, 4th in AFC East) are sitting in last place in their division at this juncture of the season. However, their current predicament is more of a case of the rest of the AFC East improving considerably than (Head Coach) Bill Belichick’s troops simply falling by the wayside. With that said, they nonetheless find themselves looking up at three teams that they spent two decades using as punching bags, which must be an unacceptable feeling for many in the Northeast. So, what in the name of Teddy Bruschi is going on in Foxborough, you ask? Well, the biggest issue for the Pats has been the most uncharacteristic under Belichick’s 23-year tenure, and that is this team has been shockingly poor in terms of decision making and situational football. Only twice since he arrived back in 2000 has Belichick presided over a team with a negative turnover differential (2000 and 2005), and this group has nearly as many turnovers (17) as they have takeaways (18). Furthermore, they’ve been among the league’s worst on third down (37.1%) and within the red zone (38.7%), where they rank twenty-fifth and thirty-first overall respectively. (Sophomore Quarterback) Mac Jones has struggled the most in this regard, tossing seven interceptions in eight games, struggling to take the next step in a season in which he missed three games with a high ankle sprain. He’s also seen only 61.6% of his throws reach their intended target, down from 76.0% as a rookie, while suffering from drops from his Receiving Corps (3.9%). Of course, Jones (pictured below) was drafted fifteenth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, the first Quarterback ever drafted by Belichick in the first round, heaping a wealth of pressure on this kid’s shoulders. Granted, the loss of (longtime Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels was a major story throughout the summer for the Pats, and Belichick’s curious decision to name former assistants Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, who previously coordinated his Special Teams and Defense, to that crucial position left many around the league scratching their heads. It also hasn’t helped at all that Jones has frequently been under duress, sustaining twenty-four sacks, which is four away from the twenty-eight he took last year, which was in seventeen games, while he’s already amassed this current number in just eight starts. The 24-year-old has seen his sack percentage balloon from 5.1% to 9.3%, which is one part inexperience, another part new playcalling, and one more a banged up Offensive Line that could be without up to three starters for tonight’s crucial battle with Buffalo. Thankfully, it has been a different story altogether on Defense, where Belichick has once again helmed one of the stingier sides in the NFL, ranking sixth in points allowed (18.4), fifth in total defense (307.8), nineth against both the pass (198.5) and the run (109.3), fifth in takeaways (18), tenth on third down (38.5%), seventh in the red zone (51.5%), and thirty-seven sacks, the second-most in the league. The next generation of defensive stars have arrived in Foxborough, including (Rookie Cornerback) Jack Jones (2 interceptions, 5 defended passes, and a touchdown) and (Pro-Bowler Edge-Rusher) Matthew Judon, who leads the NFL with thirteen sacks.
When we last saw the Patriots, they snapped a three-game winning streak with a 33-26 loss at the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. This one was a wild one, folks, featuring six lead changes and a combined 767 total yards. For those who have been concerned with Jones thus far, this may have been the performance that calms down the detractors, for this was one of the few games this season in which New England couldn’t run the football much at all (forty-five yards on thirteen carries), in turn relying on the young Quarterback instead, which was a task he was more than up for. Jones completed 28-of-38 passes for 382 yards two touchdowns and most importantly, zero turnovers. After Minnesota drew first blood, Jones hit (veteran Receiver) Nelson Agholor for a 34-yard strike to tie the score, while later nailing (veteran Tight End) Hunter Henry for a 37-yard score to retake the lead midway through the third quarter. He very nearly hit Henry for a second touchdown on the very next possession, though it was controversially overturned by replay, leading to another Nick Folk Field Goal. That would be a bit of theme for the Pats, who settled for three points far too often for Belichick’s liking, with three of the veteran’s four field goals coming from within sixteen yards. Ironically, a week after winning at the death via a punt return touchdown, the visitors found themselves on the opposite side of the proverbial coin, relinquishing a 97-yard kickoff return for a score immediately after Henry’s touchdown. Looking to tonight’s primetime affair with the Bills, the Patriots will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak to their bitter division rival. Of course, the Pats used to absolutely OWN them for the better part of twenty years, but that trend has flipped as Buffalo has risen to the ranks of the elite. In three meetings as a rookie, Jones struggled mightily, completing just 54.7% of his passes for an average of 132.0 yards on 5.12 net yards per attempt, with twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (2). From a betting perspective, New England has covered the spread in all but three of their last ten games overall and are 6-4 against the number when they’ve been branded underdogs. Furthermore, they have covered four consecutive games against AFC East opponents, while also covering all but one of their last four outings following a straight-up loss. With that being said, December hasn’t been kid to them from a bettor’s point of view lately, with this cold weather club covering the line in just one of their last six games in December. On the injury front, (Center) David Andrews and (Tackles) Marcus Cannon, Isaiah Wynn and Yodny Cajuste are all listed as questionable for tonight’s showdown at Gillette, while (Tailback) Damien Harris is still limited with a lingering thigh bruise.