4:05 PM EST, FOX – Line: 49ers -3.5, Over/Under: 46.5
A plethora of storylines converge in this showdown in Santa Clara, as the surging San Francisco 49ers host the high-powered Miami Dolphins in what could end up being a Super Bowl preview from Levi’s Stadium. Speaking of Super Bowl previews, this contest is a rematch of Super Bowl XIX, in which Joe Montana’s Niners bested Dan Marino’s ‘Fins for the second of their four Lombardi Trophies during the 1980s. Coming into this matchup, there are more than a few parallels between the past and the present, particularly for the Dolphins (8-3, 2nd in AFC East), who have been reborn under the guidance of (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel, riding the wave of five consecutive victories on the strength of a prolific Offense that has topped thirty points in four straight outings. Of course, Miami suffered through a controversial offseason (most of it of their own making), but there were two revelations to come out of last Spring’s storm, and that was the arrival of McDaniel and (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, which has completely changed the complexion of the attack. After spending fifteen of the last seventeen years working under Kyle Shanahan at various stops in a variety of capacities, including last season as his Offensive Coordinator, the 39-year-old was brought to South Beach with the intent of fixing a sluggish Offense, and most importantly (third-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tagovailoa was a key figure in the dissent between the previous coaching staff and the front office, with injuries, poor play, and a limited supporting cast keeping him from reaching what were certainly lofty expectations. Make no mistake, this year was a make-or-break year for the lefty, who to elation of everyone in South Florida has risen to meet the pressure head on, thriving with a retooled supporting cast littered with talent within a scheme that is proving to maximize their talents. Let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? A year ago, the Dolphins ranked twenty-second in scoring (20.1), twenty-fifth in total offense (323.7), seventeenth in passing (231.5), thirtieth in rushing (92.2), and twenty-fifth in turnovers (26), only to improve across the board in 2022, ranking sixth in scoring (25.6), third in total offense (400.6), second in passing (305.8), twenty-eighth in rushing (94.8), and fourth in turnovers (11). In turn, Tua is posting career-bests in a slew of categories, including touchdown percentage (6.7%), yards per attempt (9.0), yards per completion (12.9), passer rating (115.7), QBR (82.6), and net yards per attempt (8.35), all of which lead the NFL. During this winning streak, the 24-year-old is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 305.8 yards on 8.81 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions. Is the scheme QB-friendly? Absolutely, but let’s not forget about the other part of the equation: personnel, which is where Hill (pictured below) comes into play. Indeed, McDaniel and (General Manager) Chris Grier gave up A LOT to acquire the league’s premier vertical threat, sending the Chiefs a first, second, and fourth round pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft (along with another fourth and sixth next year), while also signing the cheetah to a lucrative four-year, $120 million contract, but at this point he has proven worth his weight in gold. We’ve seen how playmakers of this caliber can accelerate the growth of a young Quarterback, and Hill has been no different, reeling in eighty-seven receptions for an NFL-best 1,233 yards and four touchdowns, with his presence dragging coverage wherever he goes, which in turn has created a wealth of opportunities for his teammates. With that said, business is about to pick up considerably for Miami, who are about to embark on the toughest stretch of their campaign, with three consecutive road games against the likes of the 49ers, Chargers, and bitter AFC East rival, the Bills, whom they defeated in a 21-19 thriller at Hard Rock Stadium back in late September. Trailing Buffalo by only a half-game in the standings, this is their opportunity to really elevate themselves among the AFC’s hierarchy, which is a sense that McDaniel and Grier obviously share, given how active they were at the trade deadline, acquiring further reinforcements in the form of (veteran Tailback) Jeff Wilson, and (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Bradley Chubb.
When we last saw the Dolphins, they sprinted to their fifth consecutive victory in a commanding 30-15 drubbing of the lowly Texans, which wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would lead you to believe. Indeed, Miami emerged from their bye week refreshed, pouncing on Houston earl with all of their production coming in the first half of action. McDaniel’s troops scored on five of their first six drives of the afternoon, with Tagovailoa hitting (veteran Tight End) Durham Smythe for a 4-yard touchdown, while (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Xavien Howard returned a fumble sixteen yards into the end zone for another score. The hosts led 20-0 at intermission, outgaining the visitors 284-35. Hell, the ‘Fins had four different drives in that half exceed their opponent’s total yardage, two of which doubled that output. Though they didn’t do much of anything in the second half, they really didn’t need to, for this one was nothing short of comfortable for McDaniel & Co, who amassed 339 total yards on twenty-five first downs, with the Defense relegating the Texans to a scant 210 yards of offense (36 rushing), 2-of-13 on third down, five sacks, and three takeaways. Tagovailoa completed 22-of-36 passes for 299 yards and that touchdown, judiciously distributing the football to Hill and (fellow Wideout) Jaylen Waddle, with both pass-catchers totaling eighty-five yards apiece on a combined eleven receptions. Looking to today’s matchup with the 49ers, the Dolphins have won four of the last five meetings dating back to 2004, including each of their last three trips to the golden state, with their most recent ending in a dominating 43-17 victory two years ago. Miami is 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games on the road and are 5-5 against the number in their last ten outings as an underdog. Furthermore, the ‘Fins are a disappointing 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games on the road against an opponent with a winning record at home, which is the case today. Tagovailoa has never faced the Niners, ironically making the first start of his professional career int he week after that aforementioned win in San Francisco, though Hill is rather familiar with them, totaling nine catches and 105 yards including a crucial late reception in Kansas City’s triumphant victory in Super Bowl LIV three years ago. On the injury front, this is NOT a particularly healthy team, but then again who is at this point of the season? Hill has been dealing with what has been described as a lower body injury and is questionable for this one, while (Offensive Linemen) Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg, and Austin Jackson have all been dealing with respective bumps and bruises and are questionable at best for this trop to the west coast.
Meanwhile, as they did last season, the 49ers (7-4, 1st in NFC West) are finding their stride in the second half of the campaign, winners of four straight games en route to overtaking the Seahawks for first place within the division. Indeed, San Francisco won eight of their final eleven contests in 2021 to return to the playoffs and make a surprise run to the NFC Championship Game, where they met narrow defeat in overtime to the eventual Super Bowl Champion, Rams. What was expected to be a transitional season saw an abrupt change of plans once (Sophomore Quarterback) Trey Lance went down in the season opener with a broken ankle, thrusting (veteran Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo back into the proverbial saddle, fresh off an offseason spent largely on the trading block before ultimately staying for one more season on a reworked and reduced contract. However, we’re not going to spend any more time waxing poetic about what Jimmy G means to this team, or even how much of an impact that (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Christian McCaffrey has made on this Offense since arriving via trade back in October. No, the biggest talking point during this winning streak has been the play of the Defense, which has been nothing short of ELITE despite a rarely having the luxury of being at full strength thus far. Indeed, Shanahan must be absolutely elated that he was able to retain the services of (Defensive Coordinator) DeMeco Ryans, who despite many interviews with interested teams, found no takers, returning to Santa Clara, where his work has placed the former Linebacker at the top of list for head coaching vacancies. Now in his second season coordinating this side of the football, the 38-year-old is presiding over a veritable doomsday unit, with his troops relinquishing the fewest points (15.7) and total yards (281.8) in the league, while also ranking first against the run (79.5) and yards per carry (3.3). They’ve been even better during this four-game run, in which they’ve yielded a mere 10.0 points per game on 258.7 total yards and winning the turnover battle 5-1. In fact, with last weekend’s dominant 13-0 shutout of the Saints (much more on this one shortly), this group hasn’t allowed a single point in a little over six quarters of play, which is really remarkable in this modern era of football. As you can imagine, this unit is littered with playmakers, chief among them (Pro-Bowl Defensive End) Nick Bosa, who very well may be the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. The former second overall pick (pictured below) has logged a sack in all but one of the ten games that he’s appeared in this season, totaling 11.5 thus far along with thirty QB hits (just two off his career-high), thirty-six pressures, and thirteen tackles for loss. However, he’s not the only wrecking ball on this Defense, for (fellow Defensive Linemen) Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw have only appeared in three games apiece due to respective injuries, though the depth and rotation of this front has been remarkable, with the likes of Samson Ebukam, Hassan Ridgeway, Kevin Givens, Charles Omenihu, and Drake Jackson picking up the slack. Furthermore, (Linebackers) Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw swarm to the football with reckless abandon, while (Sophomore Safety) Talanoa Hufanga is becoming a household name with four interceptions, a forced fumble, a sack, and a touchdown. Pressure has been the name of the game for this unit, who rank eighth overall with thirty-three sacks, while sporting a healthy pressure percentage of 24.2% (8th Overall). Today’s matchup makes for a very interesting one in this regard, given the familiarity between both coaching staffs. Sure, McDaniel should have plenty of insight into what both Shanahan and Ryans will bring to the proverbial table, but that just means that the latter two should enjoy the same edge, making this an utterly fascinating battle.
When we last saw the 49ers, they continued their second half surge, shutting out the Saints in a 13-0 slugfest from Levi’s Stadium last weekend. As we hinted at earlier, this one was all about the play of the Defense, which completely stymied a New Orleans attack that isn’t without its own share of playmakers. So, let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? San Francisco relegated the visiting side to just 260 total yards on fourteen first downs, permitting sixty-three rushing yards, while shipping only 4-of-11 third downs. After fumbling away possession on their first drive of the afternoon, the visitors would punt on their next four drives before halftime, and as the Niners shortened the second half with their relentless ground game, were further frustrated on their lone three drives post intermission. This is where Ryan’s troops really made their money, folks, for New Orleans drove down into the hosts’ territory three times and came up with nothing, missing a 48-yard field goal, before (Saints Tailback) Alvin Kamara lost a fumble at the one-yard line, with (Saints’ Quarterback) Andy Dalton seeing three consecutive passes from his opponent’s four-yard line fall to the ground, only for Bosa to bring him down for a sack on fourth-and-goal, effectively ending the affair. When their stars play like this, there isn’t a better Defense in the league, as Bosa totaled a sack, a tackle for loss, and a pair of pressures and QB hits apiece, while both Warner and Hufanga forced a fumble, with Greenlaw and Ebukam recovering. On the opposite side of the football, Garoppolo didn’t have to do much, completing 26-of-37 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown to (young receiver) Jauan Jennings, while the rushing attack nearly cracked 100 yards with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell posting thirty-two and thirty-five yards respectively. Looing to today’s showdown with the Dolphins, the 49ers will be looking to best them for the first time in San Francisco since 2012. When these teams last met back in 2020, Shanahan’s charges were throttled in that 43-17 blowout, as Garoppolo returned early from knee and ankle injuries, completing just 7-of-17 passes for a mere seventy-seven yards with two interceptions, a fumble, and three sacks. 8-2 in their last ten games overall, San Fran is 7-3 against the spread in those contests, and have fared well against the spread in their last ten encounters with Miami, owning a 6-2-2 record, though are just 3-2 in their last five when favored by the oddsmakers. On the injury front, though Kinlaw has been moved to injured reserve, we could see Armstead make his return from a nagging foot injury that has sidelined him since Week Five, while both McCaffrey and (All-Pro Receiver) Deebo Samuel are probable to start after being slowed throughout the week with respective ailments.