8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Buccaneers -3.5, Over/Under: 40.5
Week Thirteen comes to its conclusion with what very well may be the final time that we see the most accomplished player in NFL history perform on Monday Night Football, as Tom Brady leads his Tampa Bay Buccaneers into battle against the New Orleans Saints, with both teams absolutely starving for a victory. Before we get into the GOAT, we’ll start off with the Saints (4-8, T-3rd in NFC South), who have entered the final stages of what has been a terribly uneven campaign. A year after (longtime Quarterback) Drew Brees hung up his cleats, (longtime Head Coach) Sean Payton decided to walk away from the franchise that he had presided over since 2006, leaving New Orleans to embark on a brand-new era of football in the Big Easy. From 2006 to 2021, Payton amassed a 152-89 record (.631), with nine trips to the playoffs, seven division titles, and the club’s first and only Super Bowl Championship back in 2009. As you can imagine, following such an act has been no easy task for (Head Coach) Dennis Allen, who was promoted to the position after five stelar years coordinating the Defense, though there have been a variety of reasons for their struggles. First and foremost, the Saints have lived in salary cap hell for the last few years, with a bevy of lucrative contracts taking a toll on the roster, which as we’ve seen throughout the season has been deprived of precious depth. Of course, injuries have been the other part of the equation, with several playmakers who were expected to make an impact languishing on the sidelines; after missing all of last season with an ankle injury, (former All-Pro Receiver) Michael Thomas has been relegated to just three outings before needing another procedure on that ailing body part, with (fellow Wideout) Jarvis Landry participating in only seven contests due to neck and shoulder injuries, while (veteran Quarterback) Jameis Winston, who performed very well before tearing his ACL midway through the previous campaign, hasn’t seen the field since Week Three due to multiple small fractures in his lower back, to say nothing about the prolonged absence of (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marshon Lattimore, who has been out since Week Five with an abdominal issue. Needless to say, that’s a lot for any team to deal with, but with all of that said, the most glaring absence may just be Payton’s play calling. During his fifteen years in New Orleans, Payton’s Offenses ranked in the top-ten in total yards fourteen times and in scoring twelve times, including tops overall in the former category on six occasions. Even with (longtime lieutenant) Pete Carmichael ascending to chief play caller, it just hasn’t been the same; the Saints have averaged a mediocre 20.8 points (20th Overall) on 362.9 total yards (15th Overall), with the attack utterly derailed by the second-most turnovers in the NFL (21) parlaying to troublesome minus-14 turnover differential. (Veteran Quarterback) Andy Dalton (pictured below) has had his moments in place of the injured Winston but has only been marginally less turnover-prone with eight giveaways in nine games. And then there is the Defense, which simply hasn’t been as formidable as it has under Allen’s watch over the previous few years, ranking twentieth in points allowed (23.3) and twenty-second against the run (129.1). Have they been a victim of poor field position due to all those turnovers from the Offense? Sure, but they haven’t been able to generate any takeaways themselves, sitting dead last in the NFL in both takeaways (7) and interceptions (2). Perhaps this is a case of when keeping the gang together goes terribly wrong, for Allen, whose record as a head coach is less than inspiring (12-36), while Carmichael may be out of his depth calling plays, which is something that he never did despite spending thirteen consecutive years as Payton’s Offensive Coordinator. Remarkably, this team is still alive in an NFC South that nobody seems interested in winning, for at 4-8 they are only 1.5 games behind the Bucs for the division lead, with tonight’s affair potentially swinging momentum in their favor heading into a much-needed bye week. However, in order to do that, they’ll have to put some points on the board, which is something that they failed to do in last weekend’s shutout loss at the 49ers which we’re about to get into in three… two… one…
When we last saw the Saints, they laid a goose egg in Santa Clara, failing to score a single point in a disappointing 13-0 defeat to the 49ers. Forget the fact that New Orleans could muster only 260 total yards, fourteen first downs, sixty-three rushing yards, and possessed the football for a mere 25:03 of gametime, for what really made this one such a miserable affair was the fact that they had at least two prime opportunities to not only score, but possibly even win the game. After fumbling away possession four plays into the opening drive of the afternoon, Allen’s troops punted on their next four possessions before heading into intermission, with a scant 104 total yards to show for their troubles. Fortunately, their own Defense was keeping the Niners contained and within striking distance. However, on their first drive of the second half, the visitors’ progression was halted at the hosts’ 30-yard line, setting up (veteran Kicker) Wil Lutz for a 48-yard field goal that he missed. Then, after forcing a quick three-and-out, Dalton drove them all the way to the six-yard line, only for a would-be touchdown toss to (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Alvin Kamara fumbled away at the goal line. Dalton would march them downfield once more, making it to the four-yard line, where three consecutive pass attempts failed to hit their mark, before the 35-yard-old was sacked on fourth down, effectively ending the game. In the end, Dalton completed 18-of-29 passes for 204 yards, while Kamara was responsible for both fumbles, and (Rookie Receiver) Chris Olave hauled in five receptions for a team-high sixty-two yards. The Saints did a tremendous job of keeping San Fran’s punishing rushing attack below 100 yards despite them controlling the football for a commanding 34:50, though it clearly wasn’t enough to make the difference needed. Looking to tonight’s game, the Saints have been the only team in the NFL to have Brady’s number since the soon-to-be Hall of Famer joined Tampa Bay three years ago. During that period, they’ve beaten him four times in six encounters, though one of the losses was in the 2021 NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Allen’s Defense, which favors physical man coverage and a lot of movement up front, has given the three-time MVP fits in recent years, relegating the Bucs to an average of 17.6 points on 300.5 total yards and TEN turnovers. From a betting perspective, New Orleans has covered four of their last ten games on the road, while doing so in six of their last ten meetings at Raymond James Stadium, equaling that number in their last ten versus the Bucs when branded as an underdog by the oddsmakers. Unfortunately, this is also a team that has failed to cover the spread in five straight road games. On the injury front, Allen will expect to be without a number of key performers, including the aforementioned Lattimore along with (Center) Eric McCoy, (Tight End) Juwan Johnson, and (Cornerback) P.J. Williams, while (Cornerback) Bradley Roby and the aforementioned Landry are listed as questionable and probable for tonight’s matchup.
Meanwhile, it’s only been a marginally better story for the Buccaneers (5-6, 1st in NFC South) who have managed to maintain their hold on the division despite meandering at one game below .500. What was it that we said earlier about keeping the band together to long for their own good? Well, Tampa Bay was well and ready to embrace transition at the onset of the offseason, as both (Head Coach) and the aforementioned Brady (pictured below) opted to call it a career. However, as we all know by now, Brady decided to sensationally unretire after less than six weeks of basking the glory of his illustrious career, signaling to the rest of the franchise that their championship window may not be closed after all. So, with that being said, (General Manager) Jason Licht tried to retain as many key players as he could, though still parted ways with a number of contributors from their Super Bowl LV triumph two years ago. Much like their opponent tonight, the franchise decided to maintain continuity in the form of (Head Coach) Todd Bowles, who was elevated after coordinating one of the league’s best defenses for several years. Similar to the Saints, the results simply haven’t been up to standard, though their struggles have been largely due to a misfiring Offense that has been completely unable of recapturing the magic that he had over the last two years. At this stage of his career, Brady can still win a lot of game, but he’s become more reliant on the supporting cast around him, which has become the problem. (Tight End) Rob Gronkowski and (Guard) Ali Marpet retired, (fellow Lineman) Alex Cappa left via free agency, (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Antonio Brown was essentially fired, (fellow Wideout) Chris Godwin was coming off a late-season ACL tear, and (Center) Ryan Jensen suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp, leaving a plethora of holes on this side of the football. As a result, one of the most explosive offenses in the league has come crashing back down to earth; last year, the Bucs ranked second in both scoring (30.1) and total yards (415.0), with Brady leading the NFL in passes attempted (719), passing yards (312.7), and touchdowns (43), only to regress significantly in 2022, ranking twenty-seventh (18.2) and eighteenth (350.4) in those first two categories. With a 45-year-old Quarterback, conventional wisdom would suggest that you employ a balanced attack, but Tampa wasn’t very balanced last year and they’re even less so this season, placing dead last in the NFL in rushing yards (73.0), yards per carry (3.3), and touchdowns (4) on the second-fewest attempts overall (22.5). The turnover along the Offensive Line has really hurt them in this regard, while making it very difficult to step and operate within a clean pocket. After finishing second in MVP voting in 2021, Brady has done everything within his power to keep this unit afloat, which has led to his least-inspiring campaign in recent memory; the seven-time Supe Bowl Champion has completed 66.2% of his passes for 277.4 yards per game on 6.01 net yards per attempt (his lowest since 2001), with fourteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions. While those figures would be solid for many Quarterbacks across the league, it’s been a clear sign of regression from Brady, who has resorted to dinking and dunking more than ever, evidenced by 6.5 yards per attempts (his lowest since 2019), his 3.0% touchdown percentage (the lowest of his career), and 53.9 QBR, which represents his lowest since the statistic was invented back in 2006. Unfortunately, this is how he has to play in order for his team to win, which quite frankly, has happened nearly enough times this year for the liking of everyone on the Gulf Coast.
When we last saw the Buccaneers, they collapsed late in an overtime thriller against the browns in which they failed to take advantage of their opponent’s mistakes in a 23-17 loss last weekend in Northern Ohio. Indeed, it appeared that Tampa Bay was in control of this one late, until relinquishing a six-play, 45-yard drive that saw Cleveland punch the football into the end zone on an unreal touchdown from (Quarterback) Jacoby Brissett to (Tight End) David Njoku. Brady & Co would punt it away after eight plays on the first possession of overtime, only to force a three-and-out to get the football right back, though couldn’t do anything more with it, punting again, this time from their own 39-yard line. Brissett would hit (Receiver) Amari Cooper for a pair of huge completions to drive deep into visitors’ territory, as (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Nick Chubb rushed for the go-ahead touchdown to end the affair. When it was all said and done, the Bucs could manage only 325 total yards and sixteen first downs, while struggling again to run it, posting a meager ninety-six yards on twenty carries against one of the league’s most susceptible run defenses. They were also just 4-of-15 on third down, with brady completing 29-of-43 passes for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he was sacked three times, hit on six occasions, and pressured on seven snaps. The aforementioned Godwin continued to work his way back from that knee injury, hauling in twelve receptions on thirteen targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, while (Sophomore Tailback) Rachaad White put in another strong performance with 109 yards from scrimmage on twenty-three touches. The Unfortunately, the Defense, which did sack Brissett four times and intercept him once, came undone as the game progressed, as Bowles’ troops got trampled in the run game, shipping 189 yards and a pair of touchdowns on thirty-four attempts, leading to a commanding 39:04 advantage in time of possession for the hosts. Looking to tonight’s matchup with the Saints, we’ve already covered the Buccaneers’ struggles against their division rival over the past few years, but now we’ll dive more into Brady’s issues in this regard. In six meetings, he has completed just 56.3% of his passes for an average of 237.6 yards on 5.76 net yards per attempt, with as many turnovers (11) as touchdowns, while also taking fifteen sacks. Brady has historically struggled against opponents who employ press-man coverage, while being able to generate a pass-rush without blitzing, particularly down the middle of the pocket, preventing him from stepping into his throws. That about describes New Orleans’ defense in a nutshell, with the numbers telling the story in this case. When these teams met earlier this year, a 20-10 Bucs victory back in Week Two, Brady completed only 18-of-34 attempts for 190 yards and a touchdown with a lost fumble. From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers have covered only two of their last ten games overall, while matching that record in their last ten outings as favorite. Home cooking has been nonexistent against the Saints of late, with Tampa losing each of their last three meetings straight-up and against the spread. Furthermore, they are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six contests following and against the spread loss, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, the Offensive Line figures to be a mess, as (third year Right Tackle) Tristan Wirfs isn’t expected back until late December, though (young Guard) Luke Goedeke is listed as probable after missing the last four games with a sprained foot. On the opposite side of the football, (mammoth Defensive Tackles) Vita Vea and Akiem Hicks are questionable with respective foot issues, while the Secondary could be without a number of key contributors, as Sean Murphy-Bunting, Logan Ryan, and Mike Edwards are either doubtful or questionable at best to participate in tonight’s game.