8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Raiders -6.5, Over/Under: 44.5
Week Fourteen kicks off with a pair of teams traveling in opposite directions, as the decimated defending Super Bowl Champion, Los Angeles Rams, host the surging Las Vegas Raiders in this primetime matchup from the City of Angels. Of course, the Raiders (5-7, 3rd in AFC West) used to call Los Angeles home, winning four division crowns and two Lombardi Trophies from 1982 to 1994 before moving back to Oakland a year later, where they would stay until 2020. Now, they’re three years into their stay in America’s playground, and find themselves in the midst of what has been a rather arduous rebuilding process. Granted, we can’t blame (Owner) Mark Davis from wanting to move on from the unmitigated disaster that was the second Jon Gruden era, even if (Interim Head Coach) Rich Bisaccia managed to rally his troops down the stretch to secure their second postseason berth since 2002. No, Davis wanted a clean start, and so he hired the tandem of (Head Coach) Josh McDaniels and (General Manager) Dave Ziegler from the Patriots with a clear vision of turning his franchise into New England West. There has been quite a history of Bill Belichick’s disciples failing miserably once they’ve left Foxborough, and McDaniels was no different in lasting less than two full seasons with the Broncos, though the sense was that the 46-year-old managed to rehab his image after returning to the Pats and coordinating their Offense with aplomb no matter who the Quarterback was. However, transitioning to the patriot way, has proven to be tough, particularly if the personnel doesn’t quite fit to say nothing of the cultural change, which was clearly the case with the Silver & Black through the first half of the campaign; the Raiders lost all but two of their first nine games under McDaniels, with six of them coming by at least seven points. In fact, they held a double-digit lead in the first half of three of those defeats, prompting some to wonder if McDaniels & Ziegler would make it through the campaign. Then, somehow, Las Vegas managed to flip the switch following a stunning loss to the fading Colts, which featured an emotional post-game speech from (veteran Quarterback) Derek Carr; they team has won three consecutive games, the first two of which being of the walk-off variety in overtime. Indeed, the Raiders bested the Broncos on the strength of a 34-yard scoring strike from Carr to (All-Pro Receiver) Dvante Adams, while the following weekend saw (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs break free for an 86-yard touchdown to beat the Seahawks. Could it be that they’ve finally learned how to finish? Over the last three games, McDaniels’ troops have 29.6 points on 462.3 total yards, including 182.0 of the rushing variety despite a turnover differential of -1. Balance has been the key, for in their five victories they’ve rushed for 184.4 yards in comparison to just 83.2 in their seven losses. Keep in mind that this unit has been performing without the services of (Pro-Bowlers) Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, though Jacobs and Adams (pictured below) have balled out in their absence. Jacobs, whom the team declined picking up his fifth-year option, has more than earned a new contract, leading the league with 1,303 yards and ten touchdowns, while Adams, who they acquired via offseason trade with the Packers, has hauled in seventy-nine receptions for 1,176 yards and an NFL-best twelve touchdowns. In fact, with eighty-five career receiving touchdowns, Adams has amassed the fifth-most in NFL history during his first nine seasons, joining a club that includes the likes of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens.
When we last saw the Raiders, they won their third consecutive game and gained a measure of revenge in defeating the Chargers in a 27-20 affair at Allegiant Stadium. Though they started slowly, Las Vegas rallied back in the first half, trailing 13-10 at halftime. However, they would own the final thirty minutes of play, outscoring Los Angeles 17-7 on the strength of two bombs from Carr to Adams, the first a 31-yard bomb deep down the left hashmark, and the second a 45-yard flea-flicker down the middle of the field. The Defense also showed up for the hosts, with (Defensive Coordinator) Patrick Graham’s troops forcing and recovering a fumble on the visitors’ opening drive of the second half, watching them miss a 52-yard field goal, and stopping them on fourth-and-nine from roughly midfield. In the end, the Silver & Black managed to overcome two early turnovers to amass 404 total yards, 154 of which came via the run, with the aforementioned Jacobs claiming all but ten of those yards. Carr completed 16-of-30 passes for 250 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception, while Adams reeled in eight receptions on a dozen targets for 177 yards and those two scores. Credit to a dormant pass-rush for making the difference defensively, for the Raiders had just sixteen sacks coming into this game, though dropped Justin Herbert on five occasions, while hitting him FOURTEEN times. (Veteran Edge-Rusher) Chandler Jones, whom they signed to a lucrative deal in free agency, broke his duck with three sacks and five QB hits, while (young Cornerback) Nate Hobbs made his presence after being activated from injured reserve, recovering a key fumble early in the third quarter. Looking to tonight’s affair, the Raiders have beaten the Rams just once since the turn of the century, owning a 1-4 record in five matchups dating back to 2002, with their last ending in a 33-13 defeat at home in 2018, which was coincidentally Gruden’s return debut with the franchise. From a betting perspective, their 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games, though have covered each of their outings during this win streak. Being favored hasn’t been good to them, with just three wins against the spread in their last ten contests, particularly against Los Angeles, whom they’ve failed to cover in three straight meetings as a favorite. This also applies to being a road favorite, where they’ve been particularly poor, owning an 0-6 record when they’ve been favored by as many as ten points. However, there is this working in their favor: after rushing for more than 150 yards, they are 10-2 against the spread, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, there are a plethora of players listed as questionable for this quick turnaround, with the most notables being Jacobs, (young Cornerback) Rock Ya-Sin, (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Denzel Perryman, (Center) Andre James, and (veteran Safety) Duron Harmon, who has started every game with two interceptions since arriving from New England as a free agent.
Meanwhile, we were under the impression that the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover only effected the loser of that affair. Well, apparently nobody told the Rams (3-9, 4th in NFC West), who have completely collapsed a year after hoisting the franchise’s second Lombardi trophy. Indeed, nothing has gone right for Los Angeles this season, for they are now guaranteed their first losing campaign since (Head Coach) Sean McVay took over back in 2017. So, what in the name of Eric Dickerson has happened, you ask? Well, it’s certainly taken longer than most have anticipated, but it appears that this team has finally fallen victim to the downside of their “win now” mantra, for after years of dealing away premium draft picks in order to chase star talent, they have now found themselves with precious little depth and unable to cope without said stars. Losers of six consecutive games, LA has lost their biggest guns, and we’re not referring to the departure of (Pro-Bowlers) Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason or having to remake the entirety of their Offensive Line. No, were talking about (All-Pro Receiver and reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Cooper Kupp and (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who have both succumbed to season-ending injuries. The connection between these two served as the foundation for McVay’s Offense last year, with Stafford arriving via a blockbuster trade to throw for 4,886 yards and a career-high forty-one touchdowns, many of which went to Kupp, who brought home the receiving triple crown, leading the NFL in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). Unfortunately, Kupp was lost to a fractured ankle in Week Ten, while Stafford has recently been placed on injured reserve with a concussion, joining eleven other players. Needless to say, the Rams don’t have enough depth to survive these kinds of losses, no matter how creative McVay (pictured below) can be. On the season, they’ve ranked twenty-ninth in points (16.8), thirty-first in total yards (308.6), twenty-fifth in passing yards (221.3), thirtieth in rushing yards (87.3), and twenty-eighth in turnovers (19), only to sink to new lows during this recent skid, averaging 16.1 points on 255.8 total yards, cracking the 300-yard mark on just two occasions. One has to wonder if McVay is feeling any second thoughts after deciding to run it back following a summer in which he reportedly was strongly considering walking away from his post, for at some point he had to know that this day was coming. After all, you can keep kicking the proverbial can down the road all you want, but the bill eventually always comes due. And this is precisely where Los Angeles finds themselves, setting up what should be a fascinating offseason. Do they start a fire sale to recoup as many draft picks as possible to begin a proper rebuild? If so, will McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead be on board to see it through? How about Stafford, who is set to count $120 million against their salary cap over the next three years? What about (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Aaron Donald, who also flirted with retirement over the Summer, and has authored the fewest sacks thus far of his career (five)? In an annually tough division, it makes sense that the Rams shift their approach and focus on a long-term plan for a change, though after watching them wheel and deal over the last five years, we seriously doubt that doing so is even in their DNA.
When we last saw the Rams, they fell to their sixth consecutive defeat, this time losing at home to division rivals, the Seahawks in a 27-23 affair. With Stafford out of action, (veteran Backup) John Wolford received the start, and he did a fairly poor job of managing the game all things considered. The former CFL star completed 14-of-26 passes for just 178 yards and a pair of interceptions and a fumble, suffering four sacks and nine hits on the afternoon. With that said, Los Angeles did manage to keep this one remarkably close, as they managed to put together their most prolific rushing performance of the season, piling up 171 yards on thirty-three carries. Indeed, after being sent away from the team and shopped to virtually every team in the league, (young Tailback) Cam Akers showed up with sixty yards and two rushing touchdowns, the first of the game and his team’s last to give them a 23-20 lead with just 2:56 remaining in the contest. However, Seattle would burn them badly on the ensuing drive, traveling seventy-five yards in little over two minutes, as Geno Smith found D.K. Metcalf for the game-winning touchdown with just forty-one seconds left on the clock. In the end, McVay’s troops were outgained by 119 total yards, including 189 through the air, and managed to complete only 4-of-12 third downs. Looking to tonight’s contest, the Rams have covered the spread in four of their last ten games overall, including just three of their past ten played at SoFi Stadium. They’ve been an underdog quite a bit of late, owning a 5-4 record against the spread in their last ten outings. Working against them though is this: despite enjoying such success on the ground, they’re unlikely to parlay that into success on the scoreboard, for they’ve failed to cover seven consecutive games after rushing for more than 150 yards in the previous game. In this case, you could call it the inverse of the Raiders in regard to that particular statistic. On the injury front, we already covered the absences of Stafford and Kupp, but there are plenty of other Rams who may miss this midweek clash; Donald missed the first game of his career last weekend, with a high-ankle sprain threatening to sideline him once again, while the likes of (Defensive Backs) Troy Hill and David Long, (Linebackers) Terrell Lewis and Travin Howard, (Offensive Lineman) David Andrews, and (Receiver) Ben Skowronek are all questionable with various ailments. Add the aforementioned Wolford to the list, for he’s been limited throughout practice this week with a sore neck. If he can’t go tonight, then it’ll be up to Bryce Perkins to pick up the pieces; the undrafted free agent is in his first year with Los Angeles, and has attempted just thirty-four passes thus far, most of which came in a 26-10 loss to the Chiefs in which he completed 13-of-23 passes for 100 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions. Though we highly doubt that we’ll see him tonight, Los Angeles recently claimed (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield off waivers after the former no. one overall pick was released by the Panthers over the weekend. On his third team in the last nine months, there is no telling how long the polarizing passer will stay in the City of Angels, though if there is a coach that could rehabilitate his once promising career, it’s definitely McVay.