1:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Bills -10, Over/Under: 43
Division rivals clash today in a matchup featuring heavy postseason implications, as the Buffalo Bills play host to the much-improved New York Jets in the second leg of the annual encounter, from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, New York. Never short on storylines, the Jets (7-5, 3rd in AFC East) have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the National Football League this season, as they look to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Now in the second year of (Head Coach) Robert Salah’s reign in the Big Apple, this is a team that has benefitted from some excellent drafting and development, with Salah and (General Manager) Joe Douglas doing a tremendous job of changing the culture in New York by identifying and building up a plethora of talented young pieces. Given his pedigree on the defensive side of the football, it’s no surprise that the Defense has seen a wealth of improvement under Salah, ranking sixth in points allowed (18.6), fourth in total defense (307.0), and sixth in pass defense (194.3), all the while yielding the fewest average amount of yards per drive (26.2). (Former third overall pick) Quinnen Williams as flourished under Salah’s watch, logging a career-high nine sacks, twenty-one QB hits, ten tackles for loss, and twenty-three pressures, while (Rookie Cornerback) Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner has lived up to the hype (fourth overall pick in 2022) with a pair of interceptions and a league-high FIFTEEN defended passes. To give you an idea as to how much this group has grown, when they matched up with Buffalo earlier this season, a 20-17 victory at MetLife Stadium, Gang Green permitted just 317 total yards, including 183 against the pass, which was a season-low for one of the most prolific arial attacks in the NFL. The Offense has seen its share of growth too, with the play of rookies Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson inspiring plenty of hope moving forward; in just seven games, Hall had proven to be an all-purpose weapon with 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns on a healthy 6.9 yards per touch, before tearing his ACL, while Wilson has developed a solid rapport with whoever has been throwing him the football, reeling in fifty-seven receptions for 790 yards and four scores. However, as far as these Jets have come, the position of Quarterback remains unsettled, which must be disappointing for everyone in the building. After enduring a miserable rookie campaign, (Sophomore Quarterback) Zach Wilson needed to make a leap in year two, and after missing the first three weeks of the regular season rehabbing from a knee injury suffered early in the preseason, has yet to live up to the lofty expectations when the franchise selected him third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Despite owning a 5-2 record as the starter, Wilson has been far from good, completing just 55.6% of his passes for 182.7 yards per game on 5.63 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) and a QBR of 42.8. Granted, some of those numbers are a sizable improvement over last season, but then again, that just informs you how poorly he played a year ago. It’s become clear that Salah and the coaching staff are disappointed with his progress, for despite that winning record, they decided to bench the 23-year-old for the foreseeable future, handing reins to fellow sophomore, Mike White (pictured below). Over the last two weeks, the 27-year-old has performed much better than Wilson, completing 62.4% of his passes for a whopping 342.0 yards per game on 7.75 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, bringing a sense of efficiency and verticality to the passing game. White absolutely balled out in a 31-10 drubbing of the bears two weeks ago, with 315 yards and three touchdowns on a surgical 22-of-28 passing and followed that up with 369 yards and a rushing score in last Sunday’s narrow 27-22 defeat at the Vikings (more on that one in a bit). Now the question on everyone’s mind is this: if he continues to play this way, is White their QB1 moving forward into the future, or will Wilson get one last opportunity to change the minds of Salah, Douglas, etc.? If White does in fact propel them into the postseason for the first time in over a decade, there will be quite a decision to be made in New York…
When we last saw the Jets, they fought valiantly to erase a sizable deficit only to come up short in that aforementioned 27-22 loss at the Vikings. Indeed, New York found themselves behind the proverbial eight ball early in this one, as Minnesota scored on four of their first five possessions of the first half, leading 20-6 at intermission. Salah’s troops began the affair with White intercepted on his third pass of the afternoon, before (veteran Kicker) Greg Zuerlein kicked a 48-yard field goal to get on the board. However, while their opponent met little resistance moving the football, the visitors punted on back-to-back drives before turning it over on downs at their own 43-yard line, before Zuerlein tacked on another three points right before halftime. In the second half, Gang Green would find their rhythm, scoring on four consecutive drives, but only coming up with sixteen points to show for it, drawing within five points in the process. And that would ultimately prove to be their downfall; Zuerlein drained FIVE field goals on the day, though the latter three came deep within the hosts’ territory, leaving Salah to lament the volume of points that his side left on the table. This would be made even more painful given how their final two drives would end; despite forcing back-to-back three-and-outs, the Jets could do no more with the ball, turning it over on a fourth-and-one from their opponent’s one-yard line, while White was intercepted on pass into the end zone on the latter possession. In the end, New York dominated the game from a statistical point of view, compiling 486 total yards and possessing, but were done in by dismal showings on both third down (3-of-16) and fourth down (2-of-5), while those two turnovers sealed their fate. We touched up White’s line in this earlier, with the young Quarterback attempting FIFTY-SEVEN throws to get to 369 yards and those two picks. (Undrafted Free Agent) Zonovan Knight continued to make the most of a depleted backfield, rushing for a career-high ninety yards on fifteen carries, while the aforementioned Wilson proved to be beneficiary of White’s big day, totaling a career-high of his own with 162 receiving yards on eight catches. Defensively, (veteran Defensive End) Carl Lawson and the aforementioned Williams each turned in strong showings, combining for two sacks, four tackles for loss, four QB hits, and just as many pressures. Looking to today’s rematch with the Bills, the Jets snapped a four-game losing streak to their empire state rivals to the west, winning outright as a 10.5 points underdog. New York has covered the spread in six of their last ten games overall, while matching that record in their last ten outings away from the Meadowlands. A middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten meetings with Buffalo, they’ve failed to cover seven of their last ten trips to Orchard Park. Furthermore, here are a pair of opposing trends pertaining to this matchup; Gang Green has covered five straight games following an against the spread loss (including four in a row after a straight-up loss) but are only 2-8 against the spread in their last ten affairs as an underdog between 3.5 to 10 points, which is the case here today. On the injury front, (Defensive Backs) Lamarcus Joyner and D.J. Reed, (veteran Receiver) Corey Davis, (Defensive Lineman) Michael Clemons, and (ageless Left Tackle) Duane Brown are each questionable with various ailments, though (sophomore Tailback) Michael carter, who missed last week’s trip to Minneapolis with a sprained ankle is probable to make his return today against Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Bills (9-3, 1st in AFC East) were the popular choice by many not only to win the AFC but go on to deliver the franchise that elusive Lombardi trophy that they’ve longed for. For the most part, they’ve lived up to those lofty expectations, establishing themselves as one of the true contenders within what has been a top-heavy conference. Indeed, Buffalo has answered the few concerns over their legitimacy, behind a high-powered Offense that continues to impress now under a new play caller for the first time in six years, while the NFL’s top-ranked Defense from last season counts itself among the league’s elite despite suffering several notable injuries. After (longtime Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll took over the Giants, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott promoted (Quarterbacks Coach) Ken Dorsey, and while there was initially some speculation over the transition, the attack has been as lethal as ever, ranking third in points (27.8) and second in total offense (420.8). Of course, it helps to have (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen on the field, for there have been few players that have thrived in carrying such a load; the 26-year-old is averaging 283.8 yards through the air, while also serving as the team’s second-leading rusher (581), netting 6.5 yards per attempt, en route to accounting for a staggering 332.5 yards from scrimmage, the most in the league by a healthy margin. However, there is a growing concern that the Bills rely on his exploits a little too much, though if there is anything to be worried about it is the health of his right elbow, which he sprained late in a 27-17 victory over the Packers six weeks ago. Initially feared to miss time, Allen has appeared a bit shaky over the last few weeks, tossing nearly as many interceptions (5) than touchdowns (6), leading to the second-most picks in the league (11), while Buffalo has gone 3-2 during that span. Granted, he’s been inclined to tuck it and run more than ever, topping seventy-five rushing yards in three of his last five outings, but he’s also taken fourteen sacks in the process, giving this unit a less-than efficient feel to it. With that said, there are suddenly greater concerns on Defense, where the injuries are really starting to pile up. (Safeties) Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have both missed plenty of time with various injuries, while (three-time All-Pro Linebacker) Von Miller left their Thanksgiving affair in Detroit with what was initially described as a sprained knee. Unfortunately, the 33-year-old just recently underwent exploratory surgery to ascertain the seriousness of the injury, ultimately revealing the worst: he had in fact torn his ACL, ending his first season with the Bills prematurely. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR turn of events, for Miller (pictured below) was signed to a lucrative contract (six years, $120 million, 51.4 in guarantees) in the Spring after winning the second Super Bowl of his stellar career and was viewed as the missing piece for a Defense that struggled to finish off the Chiefs in that wild finish at Arrowhead last January. Miller has certainly been impactful for McDermott & Co, logging eight sacks, a dozen QB hits, and twenty-five pressures in eleven games, though his impact has extended further to the mentality of a young group that needed that edge in order to take that final step towards a Lombardi. As they fight to keep pace with the other powers within the AFC, including their own division, it remains to be seen how this Defense will adjust without arguably their biggest gun, for as we’ve seen in the past, they can have a hard time of getting off the field against elite Offenses.
When we last saw the Bills, they took great pleasure in hammering their bitter rivals, the Patriots for the third consecutive meetings in a 24-10 trip to Foxborough last weekend. This one was never in question, folks, for Buffalo had little trouble disposing of a side that has treated them like their own personal punching bag for the better part of two decades. This was a good matchup for McDermott’s troops, for at this point, the Pats simply aren’t a very threatening group on the offensive side of things, proving unable to threaten them in the manner that the Chiefs or Bengals are capable of. It was no Miller, no problem for the visitors, who relegated the hosts to just 242 total yards on fourteen first downs, including a scant sixty rushing yards on fourteen attempts, a miserable 3-12 showing on third down, while possessing the football for a mere 21:52. Without the benefit of the run game, (Patriots Quarterback) Mac Jones was a sitting duck in the pocket, mustering just 195 yards on thirty-six attempts, while suffering eight pressures, four hurries and hits apiece, and a sack courtesy of (young Defensive Lineman) A.J. Epenesa. On the flipside, Allen & Co appear to have figured out Bill Belichick’s tactics, posting a modest 355 total yards on twenty-two first downs, controlling the game on the ground with 132 rushing yards on thirty-seven carries, led by (young Tailbacks) Devin Singletary and James Cook, who combined for 115 yards and a score on twenty-seven attempts. As for Allen, he went 22-of-33 for 223 yards and two touchdowns, linking up with (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs seven times for ninety-two yards and one of those scores. Looking to today’s game, the Bills will be looking for payback for their earlier loss to the Jets, that aforementioned 20-17 defeat at MetLife Stadium. This one happened to be played a week after Allen suffered that sprained elbow, and it was rather evident in his play, as he completed just 18-of-34 attempts for 205 yards and a pair of interceptions, while taking five sacks. Granted, he did rush for eighty-six yards and a pair of touchdowns, but on the whole of the encounter, he clearly wasn’t himself. Buffalo is just 3-6 against the spread in their last ten games overall, though 5-3 in that regard in their last ten outings at Highmark Stadium. They’ve covered just three of their last ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers and are just 4-6 against the spread in their last ten when favored over New York. However, as the spread continues to rise throughout the week, it needs to be said that this team is 5-1-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points, which is the case today. On the injury front, (Left Tackle) Dion Dawkins, (Right Tackle) David Quessenberry, (Defensive Tackle) Jordan Phillips, and (Middle Linebacker) Matt Milano are all listed as questionable with an assortment of maladies for this key division battle, while (Rookie Cornerback) Christian Benford is joining Miller on injured reserve with what they’ve described as a partially torn oblique.