8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: 49ers -3.5, Over/Under: 43.5
Week Fifteen kicks off a battle between division rivals who are traveling in opposite directions, as the red-hot San Francisco 49ers look to continue their second half surge at the Seattle Seahawks, who simply hope to keep their postseason hopes alive in primetime showdown from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. At this point, we can’t help but wonder if the 49ers (9-4, 1st in NFC West) can win with literally ANYONE at Quarterback, for they have remained as formidable as ever no matter who is throwing passes. The QB carousel will likely go down as the primary theme of this season for San Francisco, who have seen THREE different Quarterbacks start thus far. Of course, the offseason was dominated by the transition from (longtime veteran) Jimmy Garoppolo to (Sophomore) Trey Lance, who the franchise traded up to draft third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. There was one problem though: after several attempts to trade him, Garoppolo remained on the roster. With no takers to be found, Jimmy G ended up returning to the Niners on a restructured one-year deal, which turned out to be an absolute blessing for (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch as Lance was lost for the season midway through the first opener with a broken ankle. Fresh off a surprise run to the NFC Championship Game, Garoppolo’s return changed the expectations in San Fran, with the team expected to round back into Super Bowl contenders as a result. By large, that has certainly been the case, as Garoppolo steadily managed a balanced attack that added (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Christian McCaffrey at the trade deadline, while the Defense, helmed by (Defensive Coordinator) DeMeco Ryans has evolved into the most dominant unit in the league. Indeed, after interviewing with multiple teams last offseason, Ryans is sure to become a Head Coach in 2023, with his troops pacing the NFL in points allowed (15.2), total defense (286.9), first downs allowed (214), run defense (75.1), and rushing yards per attempt permitted (3.4). During this current six-game wave that they’ve been riding, the 49ers have been even better, relinquishing a scant 10.6 points on 277.5 total yards, while enjoying a turnover differential of +9! With that said, there was a MAJOR turn of events two weeks ago. as Garoppolo suffered a broken foot in a 33-17 victory over the Dolphins, throwing their championship aspirations into doubt. Though as we stated earlier, it doesn’t seem to matter who the hell is taking snaps from the center, for this train just keeps on rolling as (Rookie Quarterback) Brock Purdy relieved the Pro-Bowler and went on to carve up Miami to the tune of 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 25-of-37 passing. Granted, few in the league are better at crafting a gameplan to fit their QB than Shanahan, who is once again proving just how special he really is by keeping his team alive with this year’s Mr. Irrelevant. That’s right, folks, Purdy (pictured below) was the LAST player selected in last spring’s NFL Draft (262nd Overall), though you wouldn’t know it from watching him play these last two weeks; a four-year starter at Iowa State, Purdy left Aimes as the school’s all-time leader in a plethora of passing categories, winning thirty games with the Cyclones. As fate would have it, last Sunday’s matchup pitted him against his complete and utter antithesis: Tom @#$%^& Brady. That’s right, we’re talking about Mr. Irrelevant versus the GOAT, and it went precisely how everyone expected it to… (which means it absolutely did not)
When we last saw the 49ers, they beat the damned brakes off of the Buccaneers in a 35-7 thumping that wasn’t even that close, as Purdy outplayed the greatest of all time in convincing fashion. With his family emotional in the crowd, the Rookie made it look easy managing the game against what remains one of the tougher defenses in the NFL, completing 16-of-21 passes for 185 yards, and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another score to boot. This one was as ONE-SIDED as they come, ladies and gentlemen, as San Francisco scored touchdowns on five of their first seven drives of the afternoon, while Tampa missed a 55-yard field goal on their opening possession before punting on their next three drives and turning it over on downs deep in the hosts’ territory as the Niners took a commanding 28-0 lead into halftime. Seriously, folks, San Fran outgained the visitors 312-101 in the first half. While Shanahan’s took his foot off the gas in the second half, Ryans’ Defense did not, picking off Brady on back-to-back possessions, before forcing another turnover on downs and fumble on the final drive of the evening. In the end, the home side amassed 404 total yards on twenty-four first downs, bludgeoning what used to be the best run defense in the league for 209 yards on thirty-six carries, converting 4-of-9 third downs and possessing the pigskin for 32:40. The fact that they faced only nine third downs should give you an idea of what kind of day at the office it was for these guys. Defensively, Brady & Co could do next-to-nothing, totaling 322 yards with a mere sixty-nine yards coming on the ground, though anyone that has monitored their struggles in that regard couldn’t have expected their fortunes to turn against THIS unit. In perhaps the final homecoming of his career, Brady was 34-of-55 passing for 253 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and though he wasn’t sacked he was consistently pressured by Ryans’ dogs, who hit him on seven occasions. Going back to Purdy, he was remarkably calm in the face of the Bucs’ blitz, completing all but two of eight passes for over ninety yards and a score., leaving his father in tears as the faithful at Levi’s Stadium chanting his name. The aforementioned McCaffrey accounted for 153 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns, while (you Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk hauled in two balls for fifty-seven yards, with one being a 32-yard touchdown. Looking to tonight’s matchup, the 49ers snapped a four-game losing streak to the Seahawks with their decisive 27-7 victory in Santa Clara all the way back in Week Two. OF course, that was a lifetime ago in terms of football, for neither McCaffrey nor Purdy were even in the picture at that point. From a betting perspective, San Francisco has been a great bet of late, covering the spread in all but two of their last eight outings, while putting together a stellar 7-3 record against the spread on the road. However, traveling to Lumen Field has been a different matter altogether, for Shanahan’s charges have failed to cover eight of their last ten trips to Seattle. On the injury front, Purdy did suffer an oblique injury late in last weekend’s romp over the Bucs, though reports out of Niners’ camp is that it was precautionary given the game was well out of hand at that point. Unfortunately, it looks like they’re going to be without (All-Pro Receiver) Deebo Samuel for a few games, though it appears that they dodged a major injury, for what appeared to be a potential ACL tear has turned out to be a strained quadriceps.
Meanwhile, this season was also supposed to be a transitional one for the Seahawks (7-6, 2nd in NFC West), though just as their division rivals have, they’ve written their own narrative with a real opportunity of returning to the playoffs after missing it for the first time in four years. After finally parting ways with (longtime Quarterback) Russell Wilson, many pegged Seattle to take a step backward in 2022, using the wealth of draft capital that they received from Wilson’s trade to Denver to reinforce some long-neglected areas of the roster. However, who said that they couldn’t compete while doing so? Indeed, (Head Coach) Pete Carroll’s troops have exceeded expectations thus far, largely on the strength of an excellent draft class, along with the resurrection of (longtime Backup Quarterback) Geno Smith. Of course, we all know the story by know when it comes to Smith (pictured below), who after washing out with the Jets would spend the next four years as a backup with three different franchises, the last two of which backing up Wilson in the Pacific Northwest. So, what has the 32-year-old done with this opportunity, you ask? Well, how about putting together the most efficient and prolific campaign of his career? Smith has completed an NFL-best 71.5% of his passes for 264.1 yards per game on a career-high 6.87 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, while posting a QBR of 64.4, with all of those numbers dwarfing those produced by his predecessor. His rapport with (explosive Receivers) D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who are each on pace to pass 1,000 receiving yards. And then there has been the emergence of the rookies, which must have Carroll and (General Manager) John Schneider doing celebratory shots at the office. It’s rare that you get five immediate starters from draft class, but that has been the case here, as (Tackles) Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas have bookended the Offensive Line since opening day, while (Cornerbacks) Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant look like the next phase of the Seahawks’ vaunted Legion of Boom. However, the biggest star of this group has been (Tailback) Kenneth Walker III, who between weeks five and nine averaged 102.4 yards per game 5.3 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. An ankle injury has slowed him of late, finally sidelining him for last weekend’s surprising loss 30-24 loss at the Panthers (which we’re going to get into shortly), though there is tepid optimism that he could return to the gridiron tonight. Looking to the future, Seattle is set up for success, as they own Denver’s first round pick next season as well, which given their prolonged struggles means that it could be of some seriously premium value.
When we last saw the Seahawks, they were blindsided in their trip to Charlotte, falling 30-24 against the Panthers, who at this point don’t have much left to play for. Clearly, nobody told Carolina that, as the hosts began the contest with seventeen unanswered points, capitalizing on Smith being picked off on his first pass of the afternoon, turning around and punching it for a touchdown two plays later. The veteran Quarterback threw another interception later in the first half, parlaying to a 20-7 deficit that he managed to cut into right before intermission with a 12-yard scoring strike to the aforementioned Metcalf. Seattle would climb within three points after a (veteran Kicker) Jason Meyers field goal in the third quarter, but couldn’t stop the hosts from scoring, relinquishing ten more points before making the affair look more respectable with a consolation touchdown with sixteen seconds left to play. In the end, this was arguably the worst offensive performance of the campaign for without Walker and a host of other Tailbacks, there was simply no running game to lean, and without that balance, Smith failed to pick apart the Panthers’ Defense. The visiting side totaled just 287 yards of offense on sixteen first downs, rushing for a mere forty-six yards on only fourteen attempts, while possessing the pigskin for just 20:44. Smith went 21-of-32 passing for 264 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while suffering three sacks and five hit. Metcalf and Lockett each hauled in five catches and a touchdown, with the former totaling seventy-one yards and the latter sixty of his own. Looking to tonight’s showdown with the 49ers, they’ll be looking to avenge that 27-7 blowout in Santa Clara, in which they were held to season-worsts in points (7), total yards (216), rushing yards (36), and turnovers (3). On that day, Smith could muster just 190 yards but needed thirty passes to get there and was picked off once and sacked twice. Over the last ten games, the Seahawks are 5-5 against the spread overall, matching that record in their last ten outings at Lumen Field. As an underdog, which is the case tonight, they’ve put together a 6-4 record against the spread, and when wearing that hat against the Niners they have covered six of ten such meetings. On the injury front, we covered at length Walker’s status with what Carroll has described as a “jammed” ankle, with the fact that he wasn’t placed on injured reserve serving as a telltale sign that the coaching staff believes that he’ll be back shortly, though this quick turnaround could be a bit too much to ask.