8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Packers- 7.5, Over/Under: 40
Week Fifteen comes to a close tonight on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Los Angeles Rams look to build upon the most improbable of sparks in the showdown with the Green Bay Packers, who are in turn looking to mount one final rally to get into the playoffs. Though they shocked the world last week, apparently nobody told the Rams (4-9, 4th in NFC West) that the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover only effected the loser of that affair. Well, it appears that that has become an equal-opportunity curse, for Los Angeles has all but collapsed a year after hoisting the franchise’s second Lombardi trophy. Indeed, very few things have gone right for LA this season, for they are now guaranteed their first losing campaign since (Head Coach) Sean McVay took over back in 2017. So, what in the name of Eric Dickerson has happened, you ask? Well, it’s certainly taken longer than most have anticipated, but it appears that this team has finally fallen victim to the downside of their “win now” mantra, for after years of dealing away premium draft picks in order to chase star talent, they have now found themselves with precious little depth and unable to cope without said stars. Losers of six of their last seven games, they have lost their biggest guns, and we’re not referring to the departure of (Pro-Bowlers) Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason or having to remake the entirety of their Offensive Line. No, were talking about (All-Pro Receiver and reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Cooper Kupp and (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who have both succumbed to season-ending injuries. The connection between these two served as the foundation for McVay’s Offense last year, with Stafford arriving via a blockbuster trade to throw for 4,886 yards and a career-high forty-one touchdowns, many of which went to Kupp, who brought home the receiving triple crown, leading the NFL in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). Unfortunately, Kupp was lost to a fractured ankle in Week Ten, while Stafford has recently been placed on injured reserve with a concussion, joining eleven other players. Needless to say, the Rams don’t have had enough depth to survive such losses, no matter how creative McVay can be. On the season, they’ve ranked twenty-ninth in points (16.8), thirty-first in total yards (308.1), twenty-fifth in passing yards (222.0), thirtieth in rushing yards (86.1), and twenty-eighth in turnovers (20). One has to wonder if McVay is feeling any second thoughts after deciding to run it back following a summer in which he reportedly was strongly considering walking away from his post, for at some point he had to know that this day was coming. After all, you can keep kicking the proverbial can down the road all you want, but the bill eventually always comes due. However, just when all felt lost, McVay & Co were handed a lifeline in the form of none other than (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield, who they claimed off waivers just ten days ago. Then, just two days after arriving in Los Angeles, Mayfield (pictured below) made the emergency start in their Thursday Night encounter with the Raiders and engineered a miraculous rally to stun Las Vegas (and the sporting world) in a 17-16 victory. Simply put, the fact that this guy managed to do this despite barely knowing the playbook or having little to no rapport with his teammates was utterly remarkable, while simultaneously making things very interesting for both the former number one overall pick and the Rams as they head into the offseason.
When we last saw the Rams, they snapped that dreadful six-game losing streak in the most surprising of ways, as Mayfield rallied them to victory over the Raiders, 17-16. For over three quarters of football, this game went just about how we all expected it to, ladies and gentlemen, with Los Angeles struggling to move the chains and trailing 16-3 with less than four minutes left to play. However, credit to Mayfield, who now on his third team in less than a year, showed us all why he’s still a solid starting Quarterback capable of making plays and winning games, which is precisely what transpired here. At the 12:20 mark of the final period, the hosts engineered a lengthy 17-play,75-yard drive that encompassed a staggering nine minute of action, with Mayfield converting a pair of third and fourth downs apiece, handing the pigskin off to (young Tailback) Cam Akers to cut the deficit to six points with 3:19 left in the game. After the Defense forced a quick three-and-out, Mayfield began the final drive from his own two-yard line, yet nonetheless proceeded to march the home side all the way downfield, hitting (young Receiver) Van Jefferson for a 23-yard touchdown to take their first lead of the night and effectively ending it altogether. When it was all said and done, the Rams could only muster 282 total yards on twenty first downs, with seventy-one rushing yards on twenty-two attempts, leading to 4-of-12 conversions on third down. Mayfield was fantastic in completing 22-of-35 passes for 230 yards and that game-winning score, despite finding himself under duress throughout with four sacks, six hits, and seven pressures. Akers rushed for forty-two yards on a dozen carries, while (veteran Wideout) Ben Skowronek reeled in seven receptions on eight targets for eighty-nine yards. Credit also goes to (Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris and his troops, who without (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Aaron Donald, relegated Las Vegas to just 302 yards, including just FIFTY-SEVEN in the second half, while picking off (Veteran Quarterback) Derek Carr twice, one of which came just before halftime within the red zone. Looking to tonight’s matchup with the Packers, the Rams have lost six of their last seven encounters, including each of their last four trips to Lambeau Field, with their most recent being a 36-28 defeat little over a year ago. Of course, there is the familiarity between these two coaching staffs, with McVay having employed both Matt LaFleur and Joe Berry during the early stages of his tenure with the franchise, but then again, this guy’s coaching tree has grown exponentially over the past few years. Los Angeles is 4-5 against the spread over the last ten games, though is on a three-game winning streak in that regard, as you can imagine all of which have come as an underdog. Being an underdog against Green Bay hasn’t been kind to them at all from a betting perspective as they’ve failed to cover five consecutive meetings in which they haven’t been favored by the oddsmakers. On the injury front, the aforementioned Donald is questionable to return tonight with a lingering ankle sprain, along with (Linebacker) Terrell Lewis, (Defensive Back) David Long, and (Guard) David Edwards.
Meanwhile, we’ve stated this many times in this column, but if the Packers (5-8, 3rd in NFC North) are indeed going to make a run to the playoffs, then the time is NOW. Indeed, with just four weeks left in the regular season and coming off a very late bye week, Green Bay should have used that week off to recuperate and refocus themselves on going gangbusters down the stretch, and from the looks of their remaining schedule, they should have an opportunity to do precisely that; awaiting the cheese-heads are the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions, with that last matchup potentially setting up a win-and-we’re-in matchup with Detroit, who sit just one game ahead of them in the standings. Of course, the outcome of each of these respective matchups is far from assured, for it’s not like (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops have been in the strongest of forms this season. Granted, they’ve haven’t struggled as mightily as their opponent tonight has, but they’ve nonetheless fallen well short of their typically lofty expectations. Coming into this season, LaFleur had led the Packers to three consecutive NFC North titles, back-to-back trips to the NFC Championship Game, and a stellar record of 39-10 (.795), marking the highest win percentage of any coach in the first three years of his career. However, there was pessimism coming into this campaign even after the prolonged cold war between (four-time MVP Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers and management came to an end with the 39-year-old signing a fully guaranteed three-year, $151 million extension that ultimately came at the expense of retaining the services of many members of his supporting cast, most notably (All-Pro Receiver) Davante Adams. Needless to say, the Offense has failed to meet their standard, with the passing game struggling in particular as legendary Quarterbacks has experienced a very up-and-down rapport with what is arguably the youngest receiving corps in the league. The proof is in the numbers, folks, as Green Bay ranks twenty-third in points (20.2), fifteenth in total offense (360.0), sixteenth in passing yards (234.6), and sixteenth in net yards per attempt (6.2), along with fourteenth on third down (40.5%), and twenty-second in the red zone (51.3%). In addition to trying to develop some kind of chemistry with his Receivers, Rodgers (pictured below) has also been beset by a number of ailments, including a broken thumb and bruised ribs, which at his age weigh a little more heavily than they would have earlier in his career. Could we finally be seeing the fall of the future Hall of Famer? In thirteen starts, the two-time reigning MVP has seen his completion percentage fall from 68.9% to 64.3%, his yards per attempt decline from 7.7 to 6.8, his net yards per attempt plummet from 7.00 to 5.99, his touchdown percentage fall from an NFL-best 7.0% to 5.2%, while his interception percentage has risen dramatically from a league-low 0.8% to 2.1%. Granted, we’re talking about a banged-up, nearly 40-year-old Quarterback who is still posting statistics that eclipse over 75% of his contemporaries, but for THESE Packers to be successful, they need him to be the divine QB that he has been over the majority of his career. In the meantime, he needs help, whether it’s from (emerging Rookie Receiver) Christian Watson and his seven touchdowns over the last four games, or a consistent ground game led by (Backfield tandem) Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, or a Defense that while littered with young talent has been dealing with several notable injuries of their own.
When we last saw the Packers, they bested their bitter division rivals, the Bears, in a 28-19 affair to head into their long-awaited bye week with a victory. This one was notable for a variety of reasons, for in addition to keeping their faint playoff hopes alive, it also served to break the deadlock between the two historic franchises, with Green Bay taking the lead in the all-time series. With that said, this one wasn’t easy for LaFleur’s troops, who were forced to rally back from an early 16-3 deficit, however the tide would eventually turn towards their favor in the second half. After the hosts kicked a 28-yard field goal to make it 19-10, Rodgers & Co went on finish the afternoon with eighteen unanswered points; first, the visitors were aided by a 39-yard pass interference penalty following a few plays later by a 21-yard jaunt into the end zone by Dillon, before (veteran Kicker) Mason Crosby drilled a 32-yard field goal to take the lead, with Watson taking a sweep off the left end thirty-six yards for another score, as Rodgers finished them off with a two-point conversion. On the flipside, (Defensive Coordinator) Joe Berry’s unit put Chicago on ice, for after missing a field goal, (Bears Quarterback) Justin Fields was picked off on back-to-back possessions, the first by (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander and the second by (fellow Cornerback) Keisean Nixon. In the end, the Packers amassed 357 total yards on twenty-one first downs, including 175 rushing yards on thirty-two attempts, while converting 6-of-13 third downs and possessing the football for 32:28 of gametime. Though the Defense yielded over 400 yards of Offense, they forced three turnovers, which went a long way towards containing what has been a prolific ground game over the past few months. It was a subdued performance from Rodgers, who completed 18-of-31 passes for just 182 yards and a touchdown, though he didn’t need to do much given the balance provided from the run game, with Dillon leading the way with ninety-three yards and that touchdown on eighteen carries, while Watson had a total of forty-six, with Jones adding another twenty-six of his own. Looking to tonight’s matchup, as we stated earlier, the Packers have owned the Rams of late, with that mastery embodied by their Quarterback; in seven career encounters (including playoffs), Rodgers is 6-1 against them, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 293.8 yards on a healthy 8.62 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions, along with another two scores on the ground. From a betting perspective, is 3-7 against the spread in the last ten games overall and 4-6 in that regard in their last ten at Lambeau Field. Being favored by the oddsmakers hasn’t been kind to them by any metric, with Green Bay posting a 2-8 record over the last ten contests when laying points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover five consecutive games in which they’ve been branded as home favorites between 3.5 to 10 points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, it appears that the bye week did many bodies good in Green Bay, though (Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) David Bakhtiari, who has really struggled with a host of maladies over the last two years, is doubtful for tonight’s clash with due to an appendectomy, though both (young Safety) Darnell Savage and (Rookie Receiver) Romeo Doubs is expected to make their returns form lengthy injuries.