9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: South Alabama -7.5, Over/Under: 53.5
Tis the season for bowling, as college football’s parade of postseason games marches on with a trip to the Big Easy on tap tonight as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face off against the South Alabama Jaguars in the New Orleans Bowl from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Bowl eligible for the ninth time in the last eleven years, Western Kentucky (8-5, 6-2 in CUSA) find themselves one win away from posting nine wins in back-to-back campaigns for just the second time in the program’s brief history (they joined the FBS in 2009). Now in his fourth year in Bowling Green, (Head Coach) Tyson Helton is returning the Hilltoppers to the standard set by (former Head Coach) Jeff Brohm, who was coincidentally in charge the last time that the school was this successful. Ironically, the 45-year-old served as Brohm’s Offensive Coordinator during the early stages of that period, so he knows what it means to be successful at WKU; after taking over in 2019, Helton immediately turned a 3-9 side around with a 9-4 finish, earning him Conference USA Coach of the Year honors, which marked the first time that someone from their program won such an award since Jack Harbaugh did it back in 2000. Coming into this season, the question was how Helton would replace the prolific Bailey Zappe, who set single-season FBS records in both passing yards (5,967) and passing touchdowns (62), leading a juggernaut of an Offense that averaged a whopping 44.2 points per game (2nd in FBS) on 536.7 total yards. That particular unit returned ALL eleven starers including Zappe, who is plying his trade on the professional level for the Patriots these days. However, this year saw only four starters return on that side of the football, so regression was to be expected, though they’ve been far from lacking; Helton’s troops have scored 35.8 points per contest (18th in FBS) on 483.5 total yards, with the passing game continuing to play a major role at 339.2 yards. Indeed, Zappe left big shoes to fill at Western Kentucky, but (Junior Quarterback) Austin Reed has been up to the task, completing 64.4% of his passes for 4,249 yards on 7.8 yards per attempt, with thirty-six touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions, while picking up another eight scores with his legs. As was the case with his predecessor, Reed will indeed be one-and-done with the Hilltoppers, for after arriving via the Transfer Portal from West Florida, he has surprisingly opted to transfer yet again, along with (Freshman Backup) Darius Ocean. Reports from campus suggest that (True Freshman) Caden Veltkamp will likely get the nod tonight, making the first start of his collegiate career after attempting just four passes throughout the season. Helton has proven that he knows how to coach up Quarterbacks, so don’t be surprised if this kid goes from being an unknown commodity to a very known after tonight. Of course, it’s easier to play the position when you have a plethora of weapons, which is the case with the ‘Toppers, who boast three different pass-catchers with forty-nine or more receptions and multiple touchdowns. Chief among them is (Sophomore) Malachi Corley, who leads Conference USA in both receptions (90) and receiving yards (1,181), while hauling nine touchdowns along the way. Corley (pictured below) has topped 100 yards on five occasions thus far and is currently riding a wave of five consecutive games with at least ninety yards receiving. (Seniors) Jaylen Hall and Daewood Davis have also performed well, combining for 122 receptions, 1,603 yards, and twelve more scores.
When we last Western Kentucky, they bounced back from a late interconference date with Auburn (in which they were hammered 41-17), to finish the regular season on a high note, outlasting Florida Atlantic in a thrilling 32-21 affair that required overtime to decide a victor. For all intents and purposes, the Hilltoppers dominated this matchup, racking up a staggering 571 yards of total offense on twenty-six first downs, with Reed slinging the pigskin all over the field, completing 28-of-52 passes for 410 yards, and three touchdowns, along with one more of the rushing variety. However, the great equalizer proved to be turnovers, as Helton’s troops gave it away on three occasions, which was really SIX when you consider that they turned it over on downs thrice in the second half. Trailing 24-17 with just over six minutes left in the game, Reed marched the visitors sixty-six yards downfield, hitting the aforementioned Hall for a 22-yard touchdown strike to the affair, eventually sending it into overtime. FAU would possess the football first and handled their business with a 25-yard touchdown strike from N’Kosi Perry to Jahmal Edrine to draw first blood. Undeterred, Reed turned right around and found Corley for a 21-yard completion, only to run the ball into the end zone himself two plays later. Rather than kick the extra point, Helton kept his Offense on the field, which paid off as Reed found (Sophomore Tight End) Joshua Simon for the walk-off two-point conversion to win the game. Apart from Reed’s exploits in what would be his final outing in a WKU uniform, Corley and Hall reeled in eight receptions apiece for 127 and 111 yards respectively and a total of three touchdowns, while (Sophomore Tailback) Davion Ervin-Poindexter posted his biggest performance since transferring from Indiana, rushing for a career-high 108 yards on seventeen attempts with a 29-yard reception to boot. Looking to tonight’s matchup, Western Kentucky is 5-3 all-time in bowls, including 2-1 under Helton with their most recent effort being a 59-38 victory over Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl. 6-4 Against the spread in their last games overall, the Hilltoppers have been a good bet away from L.T. Smith Stadium, covering the spread in all but three of their last ten road games, while matching that figure as an underdog. Tonight’s matchup marks only the second all-time meeting between these programs, with the last coming in 2013, a 31-24 victory for South Alabama.
Meanwhile, lying in wait for them tonight is a strong South Alabama (10-2, 7-1 in Sun Belt), who suffered just one loss in conference play en route to winning ten games for the first time since program joined the FBS back in 2012, while becoming bowl eligible for the first time in six years. In just his second season with the Jaguars, (Head Coach) Kane Wommack is doing a tremendous job in Mobile, taking a school that hasn’t won more than six games on this level and basically doubling their win total with one game left to go. The 35-year-old served as the Defensive Coordinator under (former Head Coach) Joey Jones from 2016 to 2017 before moving on to Indiana where he would work in that same capacity from 2019 to 2020. It’s become very clear that this guy KNOWS this program through and through, showing a relentless work ethic in putting together a quality staff and crafting an atmosphere that quite frankly been uncommon at this program. Keep in mind, that this is a team that very nearly upset UCLA at the Rose Bowl (32-21), with their lone conference loss coming to (Sun Belt Champion) Troy in a 10-6 dogfight. Similar to their opponent tonight, the Jags were left with a hole at Quarterback after Jake Bentley graduated, but struck gold in the form of (Junior Quarterback) Carter Bradley, a transfer from Toledo with an NFL arm that by most metrics has gone on to outperform his predecessor in spades; Bradley looks to be much better fit for (Offensive Coordinator) Major Applewhite’s system, completing 64.2% of his passes for 2,966 yards on 7.9 yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions. Alongside eight returning starters from last year’s unit, Bradley has steered an attack that has improved greatly, averaging 31.9 points (4th in FBS) on 423.9 total yards, including 257.8 via the pass and another 166.2 via the run. There are plenty of weapons to be found on this side of the football, with (Junior Tailback) La’Damian Webb rushing for 1,019 yards and thirteen touchdowns, while the triumvirate of (Receivers) Jaylen Wayne, Caullin Lacy, Devin Voisin has all surpassed 700 receiving yards. Of the three, Wayne (pictured below) has been the most dangerous, hauling fifty-six receptions for 794 yards and a team-best nine touchdowns, with the Senior logging a score in four of the last five games. Defensively, South Alabama has grown a good deal as well, yielding just 19.4 points per game (15th in FBS) on a stellar 303.2 total yads, including a scant 87.8 versus the run. (Sophomore Defensive Back) Jaden Voisin, brother of Devin, has been their most active defender with a team-high seventy-six tackles, and three takeaways, while (fellow DB) Yamarus Banks has been nothing short of a ballhawk, leading the Sun Belt with FIVE interceptions, along with ten defended passes and a recovered fumble, returning one of those picks for a touchdown. Something to keep an eye on tonight in the turnover battle, for after getting their hands on fifteen takeaways through the first seven games, the Jaguars have only forced four of them during this five-game winning streak, while the Offense has been a bit of erratic in this regard, committing seven with six coming in two games.
When we last saw South Alabama, they capped the regular season with a school record tenth victory, rallying back to beat Old Dominion in a 27-20 affair. Trailing throughout the first half, Wommack’s troops completely flipped the script post-intermission, shutting out the Monarchs as Bradley led them to a pair of touchdown drives, the latter coming with less than seven minutes remaining in the game. After going sixty-nine yards in fifteen plays, Bradley found (Sophomore Tight End) Damarcus Thomas for the go-ahead score from two yards out, setting up his Defense to seal the deal. Starting from their own 25-yard line, ODU would progress all the way to the hosts’ 31-yard line, but no further, as Hayden Wolf was sacked by (Junior Defensive End) Jamie Sheriff to end both the threat and the contest. In the end, it was a remarkably even game, with the Jags amassing just seventeen more total yards (398), though absolutely controlled the game on the ground with 208 rushing yards on forty-nine carries, allowing them to possess the football for a commanding 35:08. Their success on the ground kept them in favorable down and distance, converting a healthy 9-o-17 third downs, and even when that failed, Wommack rolled the dice and went a perfect 3-of-3 on fourth. Apart from an early interception, Bradley managed the game well, completing 17-of-29 passes for 190 yards and three touchdowns, while the triumvirate of the aforementioned Webb along with (Tailbacks) Braylon McReynolds, and Omni Wells combined for 170 rushing yards. Furthermore, Wayne and Lacy also hauled in touchdown receptions, with the former leading the team with sixty-three yards on three catches. In the Looking to tonight’s affair in the Big Easy, South Alabama will be looking to secure their first-ever bowl victory, having lost each of their previous two attempts, the most recent being a 45-21 thumping at the hands of Air Force in the 2016 Arizona Bowl. From a betting perspective, they’ve covered the spread in half of their last ten games overall, though only four of their last ten outings away from Hancock Whitney Stadium. Though the Jaguars haven’t been great when favored by the oddsmakers (5-5 in their last ten games ATS), they have been easy money against non-conference opponents, covering four such matchups in a row.