8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Jets -2, Over/Under: 37.0
Kick off the holiday weekend with a surprisingly important Week Sixteen matchup, where the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets meet in a crucial battle ripe with playoff implications, which is something that neither team could admit being able to associate with at this stage of the season in quite some time. Indeed, it’s been quite a while since the Jaguars (6-8, 2nd in AFC South) had something to play for other at this point, for rather than tank for the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft, which was the case in each of the last two seasons, they have miraculously propelled themselves to the fringes of the Wild Card. Hell, at this rate, Jacksonville has an opportunity to WIN their division for the first time since 2017 and actually HOST a postseason affair. Winners of three of their last four contests since their bye week, the Jags appear to have turned the proverbial corner under (Head Coach) Doug Pederson, who has completely changed the culture in Northern Florida. Make no mistake, this was a HUGE task for the 54-year-old, for this was a franchise that had enjoyed just ONE winning season since 2007, losing ten or more games in TEN of the last eleven years, including an NFL-worst 4-29 (.121) over the last two years alone. So, what has changed for the Jaguars, you ask? Well, following the unmitigated dumpster fire that was the Urban Meyer experience, the transition to Pederson, whose credibility is unquestioned given his tenure in Philadelphia where he posted a 42-37-1 record (.531), went to the playoffs three times, and led the franchise to its first Lombardi Trophy. He also had a wealth of experience in putting out locker room fires, so cleaning up this mess was right up his alley, making it no surprise that he’s been able to turn this group around in a relatively short period of time. Since the bye week, Jacksonville has averaged 34.6 points in their three victories along with 421.0 total yards, while enjoying a healthy +4 turnover margin thanks to an opportunistic Defense that has forced EIGHT turnovers in that span. Of course, one of the biggest themes of this season has been Pederson’s handling of (Sophomore Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence, the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Meyer’s reign did this kid zero favors, but Pederson, a former Quarterback who has gotten the most out of just about every passer that he’s coached, has had the magic touch; Lawrence (pictured below) has completed 66.0% of his passes (up from 59.6%) on 251.4 yards per game on 6.42 net yards per attempt (up from 5.37), with twenty-four touchdowns in comparison just seven interceptions, which is a complete about-face after leading the league with seventeen picks a year ago. Since the bye week, he’s been even better, completing 67.7% of his throws for 296.5 yards 7.48 net yards per attempt, with ELEVEN touchdowns opposed to ONE interception, including a career high FOUR in last weekend’s rally over the Cowboys (much more on that in a bit). Furthermore, other young playmakers have begun to emerge, including (2021 second round pick) Travis Etienne, who has rushed for a 917 yards and four scores after missing all of his rookie campaign with a torn ACL, while the offseason additions of Christian Kirk (73 catches 966 yards, and 7 touchdowns), Evan Engram (61 catches, 610 yards, and 4 touchdowns), and Zay Jones (74 catches, 764 yards, 5 touchdowns) have checked all the boxes. And then there is the Defense. All of those takeaways haven’t been something new for the Jags, who have been very good in that regard all season, racking up twenty-two thus far, the fourth-most in the NFL. (Safeties) Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco have accounted for six interceptions, twenty defended passes, and a pair of touchdown returns, while (Rookie Linebacker) Devin Lloyd has picked off two passes and recovered two fumbles apiece. As a result, this team has found themselves two games out of a Wild Card spot and just one behind the Titans in the AFC South, whom they meet in the season finale for what could be a massive showdown at TIAA Bank Stadium.
When we last saw the Jaguars, they continued their upward trajectory with a most-improbable victory over the Cowboys, rallying back from a 13-point and later a 17-point deficit to win 40-34 in overtime. A week after blowing out the Titans, Jacksonville proved once again to be a pride of cardiac cats, as Lawrence tossed touchdowns on three consecutive drives during a period that comprised about nine minutes of game time, taking a 31-27 lead with just over ten minutes left in the fourth period. Dallas would strike back as Dak Prescott hit Noah Brown for a 13-yard strike to retake the lead with 3:02 left on the clock, only for (young Kicker) Riley Patterson to force overtime with a 48-yard field goal. The Jags would win the coin toss and take possession first, but could push no further than their own 32-yard line before punting away the pigskin, setting up the visitors for yet another late finish. However, there would be no late heroics for Dak & Co, as the aforementioned Jenkins intercepted the Pro-Bowler at midfield, returning the ball fifty-two yards for the game-winning touchdown. In the end, Pederson’s troops came out on top in what was nothing short of a wild performance; the hosts racked up a season-high 503 total yards on twenty-six first downs, and converted 8-of-12 third downs, while rushing for 192 yards on twenty-seven carries, while Lawrence went bananas for 318 yards and four touchdowns on 27-of-42 passing. Jacksonville also committed three turnovers, with Lawrence tossing a pick and losing a fumble, though managed to compensate for it with a pair of takeaways of their own, both of which came courtesy of Jenkins, who also led the way with EIGHTEEN total tackles. Etienne rushed for 103 yards on nineteen carries, while Jones hauled in six receptions for 109 yards and all three of Lawrence’s touchdown passes. Looking to tonight’s matchup, the Jaguars have won two of their last three meetings with the Jets, though haven’t left the Meadowlands with a victory since 2009, losing four straight road meetings. When they met late last year, Lawrence & Co came up short in a 26-21 affair, with the young Quarterback completing 26-of-39 passes for 280 yards, though a lost fumble would loom large in deciding a victor. From a betting perspective, Jacksonville is 4-6 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though a miserable 2-8 in that regard in their last ten trips away from home. Furthermore, despite their struggles on the road against New York, they are a middling 5-5 against the spread at Gang Green. On the injury front, Lawrence has been bothered throughout the practice week with a sore toe, though is expected to start tonight, while (veteran Guard) Brandon Scherff is questionable with an abdominal strain. However, there are two big absences that will test Pederson’s depth; (Left Tackle) Cam Robinson suffered a torn meniscus last weekend and will miss the rest of the campaign, while (2022 number one overall pick) Travon Walker will also miss tonight’s affair with a sprained ankle.
Meanwhile, it’s been quite a while since the Jets (7-7, 3rd in AFC East) were in this position too, folks, for they are now two wins away from clinching their first winning season since 2015, while pushing for their first playoff appearance since 2010. Indeed, New York has been nearly as bad as the Jaguars over the last decade, losing ten or more games on seven occasions, including a miserable 6-27 record (.181) over the last two years alone. However, like his counterpart tonight, (Head Coach) Robert Saleh has done a stellar job of changing the culture in the Big Apple, largely on the strength of back-to-back strong rookie classes, with many emerging as playmakers on both sides of the football. (Rookie Tailback) Breece Hall was on a tear with 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns before tearing his ACL in late October, while (Sophomore Tailback) Michael Carter has filled the void with 630 scrimmage yards and three scores of his own, with (Undrafted Free Agent) Zonovan Knight emerging with 253 yards and a touchdown over the last four games. (Rookie Receiver) Garrett Wilson has played well no matter who has thrown him the football, amassing 966 yards and four touchdowns on sixty-seven receptions, while (fellow first rounder) Ahmad “Sauce” Garnder was selected to the Pro-Bowl as a rookie with a pair of interceptions and a league-best SIXTEEN defended passes. Furthermore, (former third overall pick) Quinnen Williams has THRIVED within Saleh’s system, with the mammoth Defensive Tackle logging career-highs in sacks (11), tackles for loss (12), QB hits (23), and pressures (25). However, we’re talking about Gang Green, and no matter how improved they happen to be, there MUST be some kind of controversy to stoke the flames of pessimism, and there has been plenty of it of late in the form of (Sophomore Quarterback) Zach Wilson. Of course, Wilson (pictured below alongside Saleh) was drafted right behind the aforementioned Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft, though unlike his draft classmate, has not enjoyed much growth in his second year in the NFL. As well as Saleh and his coaching staff have done with these other young players, it has been perplexing how they’ve handled Wilson, who looks like a veritable basket case at the game’s most important position. Things started out rough for the 23-year-old, who suffered a knee injury on his first snap during the preseason, sidelining him until the fourth week of the regular season, which deprived him of precious time to develop a rapport with his teammates, which would prove to be a major problem. Over the next seven contests, Wilson would complete just 55.5% of his passes for a mere 182.7 yards on 6.11 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns and five interceptions, rushing for another score while losing a fumble along the way. Following a 10-3 snooze fest loss to the Patriots in which he went 9-of-22 for seventy-seven yards and four sacks, he was eventually benched for failing to take any accountable for his struggles, leading to the ascension of Mike White, who created some buzz during three starts in which the Offense finally looked alive. Unfortunately, White suffered broken ribs in a 20-12 loss to the Bills, paving the way for Wilson’s return. So, how did he perform, you ask? Well, the youngster certainly got the message, completing 18-of-35 passes for 317 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, though the outcome remained the same, as his side fell to the Lions in a 20-17 defeat (more on this one shortly). There has been a lot of talk out of Jets camp that Wilson needs to win back the respect of his teammates, and while we can’t speak to where he is on that front, there is no better opportunity to do so then leading them to the playoffs, which is something that is within their grasp given a less-than-arduous remaining schedule consisting of the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Dolphins, the latter two of which are on the road.
When we last saw the Jets, their postseason hopes took a hit with their third consecutive loss, the latest being a 20-17 affair against the surging Lions. Both teams started slow, though Detroit would get on the board first with a miraculous 40-yard punt return for a touchdown, which is something that must be driving Saleh nuts given that is the second time this season in which his troops have relinquished such a score. Eventually, the hosts would find a rhythm, putting together a 78-yard drive in just three plays, as Wilson hit (veteran Tight End) C.J. Uzomah for a 40-yard score. After exchanging field goals, the two sides headed into halftime squared away at 10-10, though any momentum that Gang Green could muster would be sapped as Wilson was intercepted deep down the left sideline on their opening drive of the second half, with the visitors responding with a field goal to take the lead. Then, after the Lions missed a field goal, the home side would take advantage with their strongest possession of the afternoon, consisting of seven plays and fifty-six yards, capped by a short touchdown from Wilson to Uzomah. However, Detroit struck back with one of their own, with Jared Goff leading them seventy-eight yards downfield to retake the lead with 1:49 left to play in the game. After taking a sack on the first play, Wilson completed just three of his next seven passes to get to his opponent’s 40-yard line, setting up (veteran Kicker) Greg Zuerlein for a potential game-tying 58-yard field goal, that fell short of its target. In the end, this was far from an offensive expo, as the Jets amassed just 337 total yards on eighteen first downs, rushing for just fifty yards on twenty-two carries, while Wilson was uneven with eighteen completions on thirty-five attempts, though did make some chunk plays downfield with six pass plays of twenty yards or more, though he was sacked four times and that interception proved to be crucial in such a close contest. Garrett Wilson, who has thrived with three different Quarterbacks throwing him the football, looked good once again, reeling in four of his nine targets for ninety-eight yards, while Uzomah hauled in both of those scores. Looking to tonight’s matchup, we referenced their encounter from last year, which Wilson & Co managed to walk away from with a 26-21 victory. He clearly won this first battle with Lawrence, completing 14-of-22 passes for just 102 yards and a touchdown, though rushed for NINETY-ONE yards on just four attempts, highlighted by a 52-yard touchdown run late int he first quarter. From a betting perspective, New York is 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though 5-5 in that regard in their last ten contests at MetLife Stadium. However, they have covered six consecutive games following an against the spread loss and are 5-1 against the spread when following a straight-up defeat, which is the case tonight. With that said, Thursday nights have not been kind to them, as they’ve failed to cover four straight midweek affairs. On the injury front, the aforementioned Williams is probable for tonight’s contest after missing last weekend with a calf injury, while (veteran Safety) LaMarcus Joyner is questionable with a sore hip. The Offensive Line, which has already been beset by injuries, could be without (veteran Left Tackle) Duane Brown who is probable with an ailing shoulder, while (fellow Tackle) George Fant carries that same designation with a touchy knee. Furthermore, the Receiving Corps could be without many of their number, with Corey Davis (concussion), Jeff Smith (knee), and Denzel Mims (concussion) all in question.