6:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Wake Forest -1, Over/Under: 59.5
As we get closer to the holidays, the bowls keep on coming, as we take a trip to Raymond James Stadium where the Wake Forest Demon Deacons battle the Missouri Tigers in latest edition of the Gasparilla Bowl. A year after authoring arguably the finest campaign in school history, there was really nowhere to go but down for Wake Forest (7-5, 3-5 in ACC), who despite finishing well short of last season’s finish, still managed to become bowl eligible for the seventh consecutive year. Now in his ninth season in Winston-Salem, (Head Coach) Dave Clawson has turned this program into annual overachievers, which is by no means a slight towards the 55-year-old and the job that he has performed. Prior to arriving at Wake, the Demon Deacons had enjoyed just six seasons of eight wins or better since breaking ground back in 1908, with four of them coming courtesy of his predecessor, Jim Grobe. However, Clawson has put together three eight-win campaigns during his tenure, highlighted by last year’s 11-3 finish and appearance in the ACC Championship Game, in which they reached their highest ranking in the AP Poll (tenth), finishing fifteenth, which was good for their best in school history. This year, they once again climbed to tenth in the rankings, though came crashing back down to earth over the second half of the schedule, losing four of their final five contests. So, what in the name of Tim Duncan happened to the Deacons, you ask? Well, it’s impossible talk about their recent slide without mentioning a Defense that got eviscerated throughout the campaign, and simply couldn’t hold up without the benefit of a typically prolific attack that became turnover-prone over the final five games. Through the first seven outings, Wake Forest averaged 41.2 points on 438.7 total yards with a very healthy turnover differential of +7. Unfortunately, they would commit an outrageous EIGHT turnovers in a 48-21 loss Louisville, kickstarting this stretch in which they’ve mustered 30.4 points on 458.8 total yards with a dismal -10 turnover margin. Needless to say, it’s downright impossible to win games in any league if you’re shipping that many giveaways, particularly when you’re Defense is getting roasted to the tune of 29.2 points per game (94th in FBS) on 410.6 total yards, including 273.6 versus the pass, which has really proven to be their Achilles heel. Opposing Quarterbacks have completed 60.0% of their attempts for an average of 7.8 yards per pass, with TWENTY-EIGHT passing touchdowns in comparison to just seven interceptions, which is easily the one the worst ratios of any team in this postseason. Indeed, the Deacons have gone as far as (Senior Quarterback) Sam Hartman can take them, frequently living and dying on the right arm of the upperclassman, who over the last two seasons has eighty-six touchdowns. In what is in all likelihood his final season in Winston-Salem, Hartman (pictured below) completed 63.0% of his passes for 3,421 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt, with thirty-five touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions, though he wasn’t close to being as successful as he was rushing the football within the red zone (he totaled eleven last year), while tossing an unimaginable SEVEN interceptions during a three-game losing streak. There is a lot of talk that Hartman will opt to take his talents elsewhere via the transfer portal, though Clawson has stated that he expects the fifth-year senior to perform in this afternoon’s bowl.
When we last saw Wake Forest, they dropped their season finale, 34-31 loss at Duke, which if not for nothing was an entertaining affair. The Deacons and Devils accounted for 960 total yards, including 738 of the passing variety, fifty-two first downs, eight touchdowns, and five lead changes. After falling behind 17-7 midway through the second quarter, the visitors tied it up with an 8-yard touchdown from Hartman to (Sophomore Receiver) Donovan Greene and a 32-yard field goal courtesy of (Freshman Kicker) Matthew Dennis. The hosts would strike back with ten unanswered points, before Hartman hit (Receivers) A.T. Perry and Taylor Morin for back-to-back touchdown passes to take a 31-27 lead early in the final period. However, after picking off Riley Leonard in the end zone for a touchback, Clawson’s troops couldn’t do much with it, punting the pigskin away six plays later. Then, two plays later, Leonard threw a 20-yard laser that turned out to be the game-winner, for on the ensuing drive, Hartman was intercepted on a four-and-ten from his own 36-yard line, ending the affair altogether. When it was all said and done, Wake posted 453 total yards on twenty-six first downs, converting 9-of-15 third downs, though they simply couldn’t stop Duke, who became the third team this season to hang 500 yards on (Defensive Coordinator) Brad Lambert’s unit. Hartman completed 26-of-42 passes for 347 yards, three touchdowns and that interception, with Perry hauling in eight receptions for eighty-seven yards and a score, while Morin reeled in another six passes for a team-high ninety-three yards and score of his own. Looking to today’s bowl, Wake Forest is 10-6 all-time in these postseason contests, winning four of them under Clawson’s watch, including last year’s 38-10 thumping of Rutgers in the Gator Bowl. Hartman was on fire in that one, folks, completing 23-of-239 passes for 304 yards, and three touchdowns as the Deacons thrashed the Scarlet Knights to the tune of 452 total yards. Coming into this matchup, they’re 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games overall, while matching that record in their last ten outings away from Truist Field. Being a favorite hasn’t been particularly kind to them of late, as they’ve covered just one of their last five games when favored by the oddsmakers. On the injury front, (Sophomore Receiver) Jahmal Banks is listed as questionable for this afternoon’s affair due to an unspecified issue, though his presence would surely be missed; the 6′-4″ pass-catcher has totaled thirty-nine receptions for 564 yards and eight touchdowns, with his size a real asset for Hardman in the red zone.
Meanwhile, three years into a major rebuilding project, could this indeed be the turning point for (Head Coach) Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri (6-6, 3-5 in SEC)? Indeed, the 39-year-old has been thrown into the deep end of the proverbial pool, for after spending just one season Appalachian State’s head coach, going 12-1 in the process, Drinkwitz took his talents to Columbia, which is a CONSIDERABLE leap for any coach. Since joining the Southeast Conference back in 2012, the Tigers have had a difficult time of finding their footing, for apart from a 23-5 stretch under Gary Pinkel from 2013 to 2014, they’ve enjoyed just two winning seasons, with only four bowls to show for it. Drinkwitz is just 17-18 in three years at Mizzou, including a disappointing 11-15 in league play, which is nothing to write home about, though there is optimism that a late surge could serve as a portent of good things to come. Sitting at 4-6 following a 66-24 drubbing at the hands of Tennessee, they hammered New Mexico State in a 45-14 affair before becoming bowl eligible with a 29-27 upset over Arkansas. So, wat in the name of Jeremy Maclin changed for the Tigers, you ask? Well, it certainly helps that the Defense has continued its evolution into becoming a legitimate SEC unit, while (Sophomore Quarterback) Brady Cook suddenly emerged as a dual threat playmaker. Starting with the Defense, (Defensive Coordinator) Blake Baker arrived via LSU where he was Linebackers Coach in Baton Rouge, overseeing a unit that has been solid in 2022 despite a pair of ugly gaffes; apart from a pair of losses to Georgia and Tennessee in which they were gashed for a combined ninety-two points and 1,205 total yards, Missouri has held six of their final seven opponents under 300 yards of offense, with four of them relegated below twenty points. This is an experienced group with eight returning starters, many of which have been impact performers under Baker’s watch, led by (Junior Edge-Rusher) Isaiah McGuire (pictured below), who has logged fourteen tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, while his 8.5 sacks rank third in the mighty SEC. (Junior Safety) Martez Manuel is a thumper at Strong Safety, with ten tackles for loss and four sacks, while (Sophomore Defensive Back) has thrived at Nickleback with three interceptions and a pair of recovered fumbles, returning a pick for a touchdown. Furthermore, their tight on the boundaries as well, with (Cornerbacks) Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw combining for a whopping fifteen passes defended. Offensively, Drinkwitz calls the plays, and he must be absolutely elated to see the progression of Cook, who over the final three contests has rushed for a stunning 315 yards and a touchdown on 7.7 yards per carry, including a career-high 138 yards in the victory over the Razorbacks (more on that affair shortly). In his first full season as the starter, Cook has completed 65.2% of his passes for 2,504 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, though SEVEN of those passing scores have come in the last three games too, hinting at greater things to come for the Redshirt Soph.
When we last saw Missouri, they became bowl eligible for the second straight season with that aforementioned 27-25 triumph over Arkansas, which sent the faithful at Faurot Field into a frenzy. The hosts were clearly the better side, dominating the affair to the tune of 468 total yards on nineteen first downs, rushing for a whopping 226 yards on thirty-nine carries, in this, their fifth consecutive win over the Razorbacks. As we stated earlier, Cook was tremendous in this one, folks, completing 16-of-26 passes for 242 yards and a touchdown, while trampling the Hogs’ Defense with 138 yards and another score on eighteen carries. (Senior Tailback) Cody Shrader added eighty-seven yards and a touchdown of his own, while (Sophomore Receiver) Dominic Lovett hauled in six passes for 130 yards. Defensively, held Arkansas to just 325 total yards, including 212 of the passing variety, picking off K.J. Jefferson on the opening drive of the second half, while forcing and recovering a fumble on the visiting side’s final possession of the game. The Tigers roared in this regard, racking up ten tackles for loss and seven sacks, with the aforementioned McGuire and Manuel dropping Jefferson on two occasions apiece. Looking to today’s matchup, Mizzou is 15-19 all-time in bowls, though are searching for their first postseason victory since the 2014 Citrus Bowl, meaning that they’re on a three-game losing streak in that regard. They did participate in last winter’s Armed Forces Bowl, falling to Army in a tightly contested 24-22 affair in which Drinkwitz’s charges thought that they had it won when Cook tossed the go-ahead touchdown, but after failing to convert the two-point conversion, they left the door open for the Black Knights to drive downfield within the last minute to kick the walk-off 41-yard field goal. Cook performed well in that one, completing 27-of-34 passes for 238 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for fifty-three yards and another score in defeat. The Tigers are 6-4 against the spread over the last ten games overall, while posting a 5-5 mark against the spread in their last ten games away from Columbia. With that being said, they’ve enjoyed being an underdog, covering the number in seven of their last ten outings when getting points, while riding a four-game winning streak against the spread in bowls. However, December hasn’t been kind to Mizzou, with these cats posting a 2-12 record against the spread in their last fourteen games contested during this particular month of the year. With the transfer portal ramping up this time of year, the aforementioned Lovett won’t be participating in this bowl, announcing his plan to leave Columbia. This is a big deal for both Drinkwitz and Cook, for the Sophomore led the Tigers with fifty-six catches for 846 yards and three touchdowns.