1:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Dolphins -3.5, Over/Under: 49.5
Merry Christmas and happy holidays from the good folks here at Oracle Sports, and what better way to spend it with two teams fighting desperately for the playoffs, as the Green Bay Packers look to keep their postseason hopes alive against the fading Miami Dolphins, who are simply looking to snap their longest losing streak of the season? We’ve stated this many times in this column, but if the Packers (6-8, 3rd in NFC North) are indeed going to make a run to the playoffs, then the time is NOW. Indeed, with just three weeks left in the regular season, Green Bay looks both refreshed and refocused for the stretch run, and from the looks of their remaining schedule, their chances of completing this turnaround are getting better; awaiting the cheese-heads are the Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions, with that last matchup potentially setting up a win-and-they’re-in matchup with Detroit, who sit just one game ahead of them in the standings. Of course, the outcome of each of these respective matchups is far from assured, for it’s not like (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops have been in the strongest of forms this season. Granted, they have won back-to-back games for just the second time this year, besting the likes of Bears and Rams (more no that in a bit). Coming into this season, LaFleur had led the Packers to three consecutive NFC North titles, back-to-back trips to the NFC Championship Game, and a stellar record of 39-10 (.795), marking the highest win percentage of any coach in the first three years of his career. However, there was pessimism coming into this campaign even after the prolonged cold war between (four-time MVP Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers and management came to an end with the 39-year-old signing a fully guaranteed three-year, $151 million extension that ultimately came at the expense of retaining the services of many members of his supporting cast, most notably (All-Pro Receiver) Davante Adams. Needless to say, the Offense has failed to meet their standard, with the passing game struggling in particular as the legendary Quarterback has experienced a very up-and-down rapport with what is arguably the youngest receiving corps in the league. The proof is in the numbers, folks, as Green Bay ranks twentieth in points (20.5), fifteenth in total offense (360.5), sixteenth in passing yards (234.2), and fourteenth in net yards per attempt (6.2), along with fifteenth on third down (40.7%), and twentieth in the red zone (52.3%). In addition to trying to develop some kind of chemistry with his Receivers, Rodgers (pictured below) has also been beset by a number of ailments, including a broken right thumb and bruised ribs, which at his age weighs a little more heavily than they would have earlier in his career. Could we finally be seeing the fall of the future Hall of Famer? In fourteen starts, the two-time reigning MVP has seen his completion percentage fall from 68.9% to 64.9%, his yards per attempt decline from 7.7 to 6.8, his net yards per attempt plummet from 7.00 to 6.03, his touchdown percentage fall from an NFL-best 7.0% to 5.1%, while his interception percentage has risen dramatically from a league-low 0.8% to 2.2%. Granted, we’re talking about a banged-up, nearly 40-year-old Quarterback who is still posting statistics that eclipse over 80% of his contemporaries, but for THESE Packers to be successful, they need him to be the divine QB that he has been over the majority of his career. In the meantime, he needs help, whether it’s from (emerging Rookie Receiver) Christian Watson and his seven touchdowns over the last four games, or a consistent ground game led by (Backfield tandem) Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, or a Defense that while littered with young talent has been dealing with several notable injuries of their own.
When we last saw the Packers, they came out of their bye week looking healthy and fresh, taking advantage of a decimated Rams side in a 24-12 affair from a FRIGID Lambeau Field. Though they started slowly, Green Bay eventually found their footing against an opponent that never really managed to threaten them at any point of the contest. After a field goal and an interception on their first two drives, the hosts manufactured a workmanlike 11-play, 74-yard drive culminating in an 8-yard jaunt into the end zone courtesy of the aforementioned Dillon, granting them a 10-6 lead at halftime. The second half belonged to LaFleur’s troops, who began the third quarter with fourteen unanswered points, while the visitors were relegated to just 106 total yards over the final two periods of play. In the end, Rodgers & Co put forth a balanced effort with 345 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, with 138 yards coming on the ground, while No. 12 was responsible for 229 yards of his own on 22-of-30 passing. Both Jones and Dillon were active in this one, with the former amassing 126 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on twenty-three total touches, while the latter added seventy-one scrimmage yards and a pair of rushing scores on fourteen touches before exiting the affair with a concussion. The rookies played a role here too, as the aforementioned Watson hauled in a tepid four passes for forty-six yards, while Romeo Doubs returned from a foot injury to reel in five catches of his own for fifty-five yards. Defensively, the Packers manhandled the shorthanded Rams in this regard, permitting a season-low 156 total yards on just thirteen third downs, including seventy-two yards versus the run, while holding Baker Mayfield to a scant 111 yards, a touchdown, and an interception on 11-of-21 passing. They also sacked the former number one overall pick five times, hit him on nine more occasions, and racked up thirteen pressures. (Veteran Defensive End) Preston Smith enjoyed a stellar day at the office, logging three tackles, two sacks, and two tackles for loss, along with four QB hits and pressures apiece. Looking to today’s showdown on South Beach, these teams don’t face off very often, but the Packers have won four of the last five encounters dating back to 2002, including their most recent meeting, a 31-12 victory at Lambeau Field back in 2018. Rodgers is 2-1 in three affairs with Miami over the course of his career, throwing for 776 yards with six touchdowns and an interception, including two scores in that latest matchup. From a betting perspective, Green Bay is 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games overall, though are just 3-7 in that regard in their last ten games away from home. With that said, they’ve been money as an underdog, covering seven of their last ten games when getting points, while also covering the spread in all but one of their last trips to South Florida. Furthermore, they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, which is the case this afternoon. On the injury front, this is a team that is still dealing with their share of injuries, with the likes of Dillon and (Guard) Elgton Jenkins labeled as questionable with various maladies, while Jones and Rodgers are probable despite their own respective bumps and bruises. Something to keep an eye on is how this Offensive Line performs without (veteran Left Tackle) David Bakhtiari, who is likely to miss his second straight game. The three-time Pro-Bowler missed most of last year with recovering from an ACL tear, though was out of action last week following an appendectomy.
Meanwhile, it’s been a long uneven journey for the Dolphins (8-6, 2nd in AFC East) since last summer, overcoming a controversy-laden offseason to become one of the pleasant surprises of the NFL, to all of a sudden facing the adversity of their longest losing streak in over a year. So, what in the name of Larry Csonka is happening on South Beach. Well, let’s start with what they’ve done right, for Miami has made plenty of progress under this new coaching staff led by (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel, the latest product of the evergreen Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree. The innovative Yale graduate has completely transformed one of the worst Offenses in the league, taking a unit that ranked twenty-second in scoring (20.1), twenty-fifth in total offense (323.7), seventeenth in passing yards (231.5), twenty-sixth in net yards per attempt (5.6), and twenty-fifth in turnovers (26) a year ago, to ninth in scoring (24.6), fifth in total offense (385.3), third in passing yards (288.4), second in net yards per attempt (7.4), and sixth in turnovers (15) this season. Furthermore, they’ve gone from averaging just 4.8 yards per play to 6.2, which is the biggest leap of any team in the league this year. While the scheme has proven to be a winner, it has also certainly helped to have an influx of talent, with (General Manager) Chris Grier doing his best to raise the floor (and ceiling) on this side of the football. First and foremost, the Fins went out and traded a hefty bounty for the league’s premier vertical threat, (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, who along with (Sophomore Wideout) Jaylen Waddle, has given this passing game two of the fastest weapons in the league. Each player has hauled in seven touchdowns apiece, with Hill setting a personal record with 1,529 yards on 109 receptions, two away from matching his career-high from last year. Furthermore, (Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) and (speedster Tailback) Raheem Mostert were both added in free Agency, adding more dimensions to an attack that can strike from anywhere on the field. Of course, this has all led to significant growth for (third-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa, who after struggling mightily under the previous coaching staff, has enjoyed a sorely needed bump from McDaniel & Co. The former fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tagovailoa (pictured below) has thrived throwing the football downfield, leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.6), net yards per attempt (7.85), yards per completion (13.3), touchdown percentage (6.4%), and passer rating (107.8), providing further clarity at a position that has been a question mark for decades in South Florida. However, that’s the good for the Dolphins, and now we need to get to the bad, as they return home riding a three-game losing streak. Indeed, the road hasn’t been kind to Miami (3-5 on the road), but this latest stretch was always going to serve as the true test of their mettle with their most recent stops coming against the likes of the 49ers, Chargers, and most recently the Bills (much more on this one shortly), who collectively own a record of 29-13 (.690), with two of them already clinching their respective division. At San Francisco, they committed a season high FOUR turnovers in a 33-17 loss, and at Los Angeles Tua and the Offense were stuck in cement with just 219 total yards in a 23-17 affair, their second-lowest output of the campaign. Last weekend’s venture to Buffalo though, was another matter altogether, and we’re about to take a deep dive into that madness in three… two… one…
When we last saw the Dolphins, they traveled to frigid Orchard Park, and proceeded to buck the narrative that they couldn’t perform in cold weather, giving the Bills everything they could handle in a spirited 32-29 affair. After hearing about their perceived aversion to cold throughout the week, Miami stormed into Highmark Stadium and repeatedly punched the hosts in the mouth, leading throughout much of the second half until Buffalo enjoyed some late heroics from (MVP candidate) Josh Allen. If there was one thing that McDaniel would likely regret from this one, it was his troops being forced to settle for field goals too often in the first half; the visitors bled over seven minutes off the clock with a 14-play drive ending at their opponent’s 3-yard line, marking the second time of the night in which (veteran Kicker) Jason Sanders scored despite being deep in Bills territory. However, they started finding big plays as the night dragged on, with Tagovailoa nailing Waddle for a 67-yard touchdown strike, followed by a 20-yard score to Hill two drives later to take a 26-21 lead late in the third quarter. Another Sanders field goal would stretch their advantage to 29-21 midway through the final stanza, but that would be it for the visiting side, who after relinquishing a 75-yard drive that took just under three minutes off the clock, were forced to punt from Buffalo’s 43-yard line, setting up Allen to string together an insane 15-play, 86-yard drive starting from his own 7-yard line, featuring three crucial third down conversions, aided by a MASSIVE 21-yard pass interference penalty to put the pigskin deep into Fins territory, setting up Tyler Bass for the walk-off field goal. Now, we doubt that McDaniel & Co believe in moral victories, but the Dolphins proved that they could compete with the best in inclement weather, amassing 405 total yards of offense, posting a season-best 188 rushing yards on twenty-five carries, led by the aforementioned Mostert, who erupted 136 yards on seventeen carries. As for Tua, the young Quarterback played well, completing 17-of-30 passes for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns with zero turnovers, despite feeling the heat from one of the league’s best defenses, absorbing ten pressures, but taking just three hits and a pair of sacks. Hill and Waddle were as advertised, with the former reeling in sixty-nine yards and a touchdown on nine receptions, while Waddle enjoyed far less work only to do much more with it, hauling in three catches on seven targets for 114 and that aforementioned bomb. Defensively, Miami initially kept the home side in check but when it was all said and done, they had relinquished 446 total yards, twenty-nine first downs, 150 rushing yards, and 8-of-14 conversions on third down. Allen may have been an uneven 25-of-40 passing, but he piled up 304 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for another seventy-seven yards via the run, and a crucial two-point conversion on a leap over the line into the end zone. Looking to today’s matchup, the Dolphins haven’t beaten the Packers in twelve years and haven’t done so at home since 2000! From a betting perspective, they’re 4-6 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have been money at Hard Rock Stadium, winning nine of their last ten games there straight-up and covering the spread in all but three of them. On the flipside, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five outings after posting more than 350 total yards, which is the case this afternoon. On the injury front, these guys are going through it too, with (Safeties) Eric Rowe and Jevon Holland, (Defensive Ends) Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, and (Offensive Linemen) Liam Eichenberg and the aforementioned Armstead all listed as questionable for this matchup, though (Backup Tailback) Jeff Wilson, wo they acquired via trade from the Niners earlier this season, is expected to make his return from an ailing hip.