8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chargers -4, Over/Under: 46.5
Week Sixteen comes to a close in the Midwest, where the Los Angeles Chargers look to continue their playoff push at the struggling Indianapolis Colts, who are desperate to generate some sense of momentum to build upon in what promises to be an eventful offseason. Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but it’s late December and the Chargers (8-6, 2nd in AFC West) are once again trying to secure a Wild Card. Indeed, this was the case a year ago in which Los Angeles was sitting at 8-5 and went on to drop three of their final four games of the campaign, setting up an epic finale at the Raiders, where they fell in overtime (35-32) in large part due to some head-scratching decisions made by (Head Coach) Brandon Staley. Well, we’re about to see what these Bolts have learned from that experience, for here they are sitting one game over .500 and on the edge of falling in or out of the postseason. After winning last weekend’s showdown with the Titans (more on that in a bit) and having a few other outcomes end in their favor, they’re currently in position of the AFC’s second Wild Card, ahead of the Dolphins thanks to their head-to-head victory two weeks ago. However, they’re only a precious one game ahead of the Patriots, so they’re fate is far from assured. With that said, this team very much controls their own fate, for in comparison to the teams that they’re in direct competition with, they have the much easier remaining schedule. Thankfully, Staley’s troops are looking at a less than arduous remaining schedule, including tonight’s encounter with the lowly Colts, followed by the Texans and Broncos, who have collectively amassed a 9-31-2 (.214). Simply put, if LA can’t get in with this “murderers’ row” ahead of them, then there are going to be some very hard questions that need to be answered in the City of Angels. Expectations were high in the City of Angels, for Staley and (General Manager) Tom Telesco went all-in to turn this team into a Super Bowl contender, spending a fortune in Free Agency with the acquisition of (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) J.C. Jackson, while adding (former Defensive Player of the Year) Khalil Mack via trade with the Bears. Unfortunately, the Defense has collapsed under the weight of a rash of injuries, with Jackson missing all but five games with a ruptured patellar tendon, (Pro-Bowl Defensive End) Joey Bosa missing all but three outings with a partially torn groin, and a host of other Defensive Linemen that has left them perilously thin up front with opponents all-so happy to bludgeon them with the run; for the second year in a row, LA has been a sieve in this regard, shipping 145.6 yards per game against the run (28th Overall) on a miserable 5.3 yards per carry (31st Overall). Hell, prior to their turnaround against the Dolphins (92 yards allowed) they were gashed for an average of 178.2 yards on the ground. Compounding matters is the fact that the injury situation hasn’t been exclusive to the Defense, for the Offense has dealt with several of their own, including (Sophomore Left Tackle) Rashawn Slater, (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Keenan Allen, who missed seven games with a nagging hamstring, while {(fellow Wideout) Mike Williams missed four of five weeks with a high ankle sprain. Oh, and then there is (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert, who despite starting every game thus far, has been dealing with fractured ribs since Week Two. To his credit, Herbert (pictured below) has performed heroically through it all, completing 67.5% of his passes for 287.1 yards per game on 6.04 net yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to just nine interceptions, with five game-winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks. With a veritable MASH unit surrounding him, the 24-year-old has really carried the Offense this season, but with Allen and Williams now healthy, the hope is that this unit can really build some late momentum to propel them into the playoffs.
When we last saw the Chargers, they survived a 17-14 slugfest with the Titans, which many probably felt that they were ill-equipped to do. Sure, if you’re a team that has been trampled up front week in and week out, facing (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry & Co sounds like a bad matchup, right? Well, as they proved against Miami, this team can be resilient, particularly now that that they’re healthier than they’ve been in months. Points were at a premium in this one, folks, or after marching sixty-eight yards downfield in fourteen plays capped by a touchdown courtesy of (Backup Tailback) Joshua Kelley, the hosts proceeded to punt the pigskin away on five of their next seven possession, with Herbert tossing a pair of interceptions along the way. However, with the affair squared away at 7-7, fortunes changed when the visitors lost (veteran Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the game with an ankle injury, then missed a 51-yard field goal attempt, leading to a shot field and an even shorter touchdown run from (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Austin Ekeler to take the lead. The Titans would tie it up once more, but with just forty-eight seconds left, Herbert drove his side fifty-two yards downfield in forty-four seconds, setting up (young Kicker) Cameron Dicker for the game-winning 43-yard field goal. In the end, the Chargers were clearly the better side, though this affair was closer than it needed to be thanks to those two picks. The Bolts piled up 365 total yards on twenty-three first downs, largely on the arm of Herbert, who completed 28-of-42 passes for 313 yards in the face of pressure that sacked him three times, hit on eight occasions, and pressured as many times overall. Healthy together for really first time since the season opener, Allen and Williams hauled in twelve receptions on seventeen targets for 153 yards, with the latter making two HUGE catches during the final drive, the latter being a 35-yard bomb down the deep right sideline to set up Dicker’s winner. Defensively, Los Angeles put in a respectable shift in yielding 127 rushing yards on twenty-seven carries, with Henry posting 104 yards and a score on twenty-one attempts, though he also reeled in four catches for another fifty-nine yards. The loss of Tannehill was crucial for both sides, for his understudy, Malik Willis threw just four passes against the Bolts rush. Looking to tonight’s matchup, the Chargers have OWNED this series of late, winning seven of the last nine meetings straight-up, while covering the spread in seven of those encounters. LA is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games away from SoFi Stadium, though have covered just one of their last four games when favored by the oddsmakers. On the injury front, we’ve talked about how beat up this team is in the trenches on both sides of the football, though word out of the City of Angels is that the aforementioned Bosa is getting closer to returning to the gridiron, with a target date of early January tentatively in place by the coaching staff. However, the secondary should receive a boost with the return of (veteran Nickelback) Bryce Callahan and (Pro-Bowl Safety) Derwin James, who are both listed as probable for tonight’s battle.
Meanwhile, this season can’t end quick enough for the Colts (4-9-1, 3rd in AFC South) who are suffering through their worst campaign since 2011, when they finished with league’s worst record while (Hall of Fame Quarterback) was sidelined for its entirety following neck surgery. So, what in the name of Marvin Harrison has happened in Indy, you ask? Well, this team is a prime case of when pushing all of your chips into the middle of the table backfires… HORRIBLY. Indeed, Indianapolis was tabbed by some (including yours truly) as a dark horse candidate to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII this February, primarily due to the fact that they had found their answer at the Quarterback position, acquiring the services of Matt Ryan. Now, anyone who has followed this team over the past few years knows that it has been a proverbial revolving door at QB under (former Head Coach) Frank Reich’s watch, with a different starter heading into each of his five years in Indy. First it was Andrew Luck, who abruptly retired before the start of the 2019 campaign, followed by Jacoby Brissett, who was replaced by Phillip Rivers, who retired as well, leaving the controls to the walking basket case that is Carson Wentz, who imploded spectacularly down the stretch, leading to his dismissal. This of course, leads to Ryan, who after fourteen stellar years in Atlanta in which he was selected to four Pro-Bowls, earned MVP honors in 2016 along with an NFC Championship, was intended to be the steadying hand that this Offense desperately needed to get back to the playoffs. However, it’s become crystal clear that the 37-year-old didn’t have nearly as much gas left in the tank as initially thought, for he has been a shell of himself in year fifteen, posting career-worsts in touchdown percentage (3.0%), net yards per attempt (5.55), sack percentage (7.6%), yads per completion (9.9), and QBR (44.0), while leading the league with thirteen interceptions. As a result, he’s been benched twice, first due to financial reasons (issued by the owner, Jim Irsay) and the latest due to performance. Of course, the operation around him has fallen apart too; (reigning Rushing Champion) Jonathan Taylor has been beset by injuries all season, while what had been one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL had inexplicably turned into a sieve. Oh, and during all the madness, Reich was fired from his post, with Irsay shocking the sporting world by appointing (former Center) Jeff Saturday as his replacement. Though only an interim, Saturday’s hiring pissed off MANY around the league, for prior to his hire he had ZERO coaching experience on either the NFL or collegiate level. In fact, after firing Reich and his Offensive Coordinator there was NOBDOY left on the staff that had any experience in calling plays on this level, making the situation all the more outrageous in Indianapolis. Now, we understand the rhetoric here: Saturday comes in and simplifies everything, and as a former Offensive Lineman, he forces them to revert back to the run game and let Ryan play complementary football. However, Taylor is now out for the season with a high ankle sprain, the ground game is still sputtering behind that Line, and Ryan has been benched again, this time in favor of everyone’s favorite journeyman, Nick Foles (pictured below). On his fourth team in the last five years, the Super Bowl LII MVP has yet to throw a pass this season, though has proven more than capable of performing well when called upon; the 33-year-old owns a 29-27 record as a starter, completing 62.4% of his passes for an average of 202.9 yards on 6.09 net yards per attempt with eighty-two touchdowns in comparison to forty-three interceptions over the course of his career, with eleven fourth quarter comebacks and thirteen game-winning drives on his ledger. There’s no doubt that he was added to the roster because he knew Reich’s playbook dating back to their time together in Philadelphia, but Reich is obviously gone and who knows what they’re putting together down in the bowels of Lucas Oil Stadium.
When we last saw the Colts, they found themselves on the wrong side of the largest comeback in NFL history, falling to the Vikings in overtime, 39-36. Fate is a cruel thing, and it’s nauseating that Ryan, who was on the wrong end of the largest comeback in Super Bowl history also now owns the distinction of getting the @#$% end of the stick during the regular season too. Indeed, it started so well for Indianapolis, who raced out to a commanding 33-0 lead at halftime. However, Minnesota would go on to outscore them 36-3 in the second half, forcing the most unlikely of overtimes. The hosts would win the toss and elected to get the pigskin first, though were eventually forced to punt it away at Indy’s 39-yard line. Of course, Saturday’s troops could do no better than push it to their own 44-yard line, punting the ball back to the home side, who promptly advanced to their opponent’s 22-yard line, setting up the game-winning 40-yard field goal courtesy of Greg Joseph, ending the wildest of affairs. Seriously, this was a tail of two halves, folks, for in the first half, the Colts outscored the Vikings 33-0, outgained them 204-90, aided by generous field position from blocking a punt, forcing a turnover on downs, and picking off Kirk Cousins. However, in the second half everything flipped as Minnesota scored touchdowns on five of their next seven drives, hitting big play after big play, while Indy could muster just ninety-seven yards with a series of punts, a turnover on downs and a lost fumble furthering their demolition. In the end, they were outgained 518-341, yielding 426 passing yards and thirty-two first downs. Ryan was just 19-of-33 for 182 yards and a touchdown despite possessing the football for over thirty-six minutes, though this one of the few games in which the Colts managed to get their run game going, with 171 yards on forty-three carries. So, the question now is where the hell do they go from here? Ryan is going to be gone, while Saturday and that coaching staff will almost certainly join him, with whispers that (longtime General Manager) Chris Ballard could be out the door as well, signaling a full-blown rebuild in Indianapolis. From a betting perspective, the Colts are 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games overall and are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten outings at home. With that said they are 5-0 against the spread in their last five contests after conceding thirty or more points, which is the case tonight, though they have failed to cover eight straight affairs in which they’ve been a home underdog between 0. to 3 points, which is also the case in this primetime battle. On the injury front, the aforementioned Taylor is out of the picture for now, though there is a chance that the Secondary could receive a boost from the return of (Cornerbacks) Brandon Facyson and Kenny Moore, who have missed time with respective ankle and shin injuries.