10:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Wisconsin -3.5, Over/Under: 43.0
Christmas may be in the rearview mirror, but the bowl season rages on, as the Wisconsin Badgers battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, a matchup that will be dominated by the requisite comings and goings of the postseason. It’s the beginning of a new era in Wisconsin (6-6, 3-5 in Big Ten), who are turning the page following a dreadful campaign which saw them struggle to become bowl eligible following a miserable 2-3 start. The Badgers finished 9-4 last season, though with only eight returning starters on hand failed to carry that momentum on over into 2022, eventually costing (former Head Coach) Paul Chryst his job. Indeed, the Madison native enjoyed a solid run with his alma mater, posting a 67-26 record (.720) over eight years, including four ten-win campaigns and a sterling 6-1 mark in bowls. However, he failed to guide them to Big Ten Championship, while experiencing a dip in quality over the last few years with a 15-10 record dating back to the COVID-ravaged season of 2020. Indeed, (Athletic Director) Chris McIntosh had seen enough after a 34-10 loss at home to Illinois, leaving (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Leonhard to serve as the interim, though the former Badgers All-American couldn’t do much better, finishing the regular season on a 4-3 run. However, Leonhard didn’t do enough to earn the full-time gig, with McIntosh instead luring Luke Fickell away from Cincinnati to fill said vacancy. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR turn of events for Wisconsin, for Fickell (pictured below) represents a true statement from the university. An Ohio State graduate, the 49-year-old knows the Big Ten through and through having served as the Buckeyes’ Defensive Coordinator from 2005 to 2016, before leaving for Cincy, where he guided the Bearcats to a 57-18 record (.760) over six seasons, including back-to-back AAC Championships and a trip to the College Football Playoff last winter. By all means, the 2021 Coach of the Year was in line for a bigger job, and Madison should suit him just fine. Exciting times are ahead at Camp Randall, for he’s already put together a stellar coaching staff, prying away Phil Longo from North Carolina to serve as his Offensive Coordinator, promising a more up-tempo, high-flying attack. However, he will NOT have (Sophomore Quarterback) Graham Mertz to rely upon, with the underclassman deciding to enter the transfer portal and take his talents to Florida after advocating for Leonhard to remain as Head Coach. With that said, Fickell and his staff have been hard at work in regard to the portal, claiming (Freshman Quarterback) Nick Evers who redshirted his first season at Oklahoma, and will compete for the starting job with another Redshirt Freshman, Myles Burkett, who saw action twice this season. Thankfully, there are some Badgers remaining in Madison, chief among them (Sophomore Tailback) Braelon Allen, who became the latest rusher to amass over 1,000 yards at Wisconsin, rushing for 1,126 yards and ten touchdowns on a healthy 5.4 yards per carry. Expect a heavy dose of Allen and the running game in what looks like the last time that we’ll see the Badgers and this punishing ground game as we’ve come to know them.
When we last saw Wisconsin, they failed to capture Paul Bunyan’s axe for the second year in a row, falling to rival, Minnesota in a 23-16 affair at Camp Randall Stadium. The difference in this one was one team was kicking field goals all day while the other managed to punch the pigskin into the end zone a few times, which only heightened the need for a change in offensive philosophy in Madison. The Badgers haven’t scored more than sixteen points in any of their final three games of the regular season, and this one was hard to watch at times. Leonhard’s troops amassed just 334 total yards on eighteen first downs, rushing for 143 yards on thirty-three carries, but only getting 173 yards and an interception out of Mertz on 16-of-27 passing. With that said, the hosts did manage to retake the lead late in the third quarter via a six-play,54-yard drive culminating in a 9-yard scoring run from (Sophomore Receiver) Chimere Dike, but could do no more, punting on their next three possessions before Mertz was picked off four plays after the Golden Gophers scored their second touchdown of the afternoon. However, they still had a chance to win it, for after the visitors missed a 48-yard field goal, though Leonhard opted to bench Mertz in favor of (Junior Quarterback) Chase Wolf for a potential game-tying drive, and though he marched the Badgers down to their opponent’s 25-yard line, his final throw fell wide harmlessly to the ground. Looking to tonight’s matchup, Wisconsin may have fallen on hard times of late, but they’ve generally handled themselves well in bowls, owning an 18-15 record (.545) in this postseason affairs, winning seven of their last eight bowls, the most recent being a 20-13 victory over Arizona State in last winter’s Las Vegas Bowl. 4-6 against the spread over their last ten games overall, they’ve matched that record against the spread in their last ten games away from Camp Randall. However, they’ve failed to cover the spread in all but one of their last nine neutral site games when favored by the oddsmakers and are just 1-5 in their last six outings at neutral sites when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, we’ve already covered Mertz opting out of this contest, the aforementioned Allen is questionable with a right leg injury that kept him out of the season finale against Minnesota.
Meanwhile, even the most consistent of programs aren’t immune to change, which is the story at Oklahoma State (7-5, 4-5 in Big XII), where they too are experiencing their share of comings and goings. From a coaching standpoint, the Cowboys are as steady as ever, with Mike Gundy set to finish his EIGHTEENTH season at his alma mater, where he has amassed a stellar 156-74 record (.678), with seventeen straight bowls to his credit, along with a Big XII Championship back in 2011. After finishing 12-2 last season and falling oh, so short of capturing his second league title, the 55-year-old embarked on this current campaign set for a full-blown rebuild on the defensive side of the football, having to replace seven starters from arguably the stingiest unit in the conference, along with (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles, who left Stillwater for greener pastures in Columbus. Indeed, the Pokes were fearsome on D last year, yielding just 18.1 points on 298.0 total yards, including a scant 88.0 yards against the run, while racking up a staggering FIFTY-SEVEN sacks, all of which marked bests during Gundy’s (pictured below) reign. So, how have they fared on this side of the football, you ask? Well, not so well, in fact. Derek Mason arrived from Auburn to replace Knowles, and the transition has been far from smooth, with his troops shipping 29.3 points per game (95th in FBS) on 440.8 total yards, including 11.3 yards against the run, with twenty-five sacks and seventeen takeaways. Seven opponents have torched them for 400+ total yards, including four to surpass 500 yards. Thankfully, the Offense has remained prolific enough to keep them in games, posting 31.8 points per game (40th in FBS) on 415.4 total yards, largely due to the exploits of (Junior Quarterback) Spencer Sanders. The dual threat has completed 57.6% of his passes for 2,642 yards on 7.2 yards per attempt with seventeen touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, while rushing for 391 yards and another eight scores on 107 attempts. It’s been an interesting journey for Sanders, who after earning Big XII Freshman of the Year honors in 2019 and setting a school record for passing yards by a freshman (2,065) but has been dogged by injuries throughout the past few seasons, including a broken ankle that ended his current run. With one year of eligibility left, he has opted to enter the transfer portal and leave Stillwater, opening the door for (True Freshman) Garrett Rangel or none other than Gundy’s son, Gunner. The former saw action in three games this year, completing 53.6% of his passes for 482 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, while the latter appeared in four contests with 247 yards, three scores and four picks on 48.7% passing. Though both are likely to see action in tonight’s showdown in the desert, all signals are pointing to Rangel getting the starting nod. Nine other players have opted to hit the portal in addition to Sanders, including (leading rusher) Dominic Richardson and (leading tackler) Mason Cobb, who totaled thirteen for loss and a pair of sacks this season.
When we last saw Oklahoma State, their second-half tailspin concluded with a 24-19 loss at home to West Virginia, suffering their fourth defeat in five games. After falling behind 7-0, the Cowboys responded with ten unanswered points as (Sophomore Receiver) Brennan Presley took a four-yard sweep into the end zone to tie the game early in the first quarter. The Mountaineers would strike back with fourteen unanswered points, with both touchdowns coming on runs of 50+ yards. (Freshman Tailback) Ollie Gordon would carry the pigskin twenty-three yards to paydirt to cut the deficit to two points, though the ensuing two-point conversion to square it away failed. After forcing a punt, the Pokes drove to WVU’s 47-yard line, only for Rangel to lose the football on a short run, with the visitors recovering it, eventually leading to a field goal two possessions later. Gundy’s troops would have an opportunity to retake the lead, marching forty-seven yards downfield in nine plays, though they could progress no further than their opponent’s 28-yard line, where Rangel’s throw to Gordon fell to the ground on a fourth-and-three. Rangel & Co would get one last shot, but the Quarterback went 0-of-4 on the final drive, ending the affair. When it was all said and done, OSU had received their best performance from the Defense in quite a while, relegating West Virginia to just 327 total yards on fifteen first downs but were gashed on the ground for 250 rushing yards on forty-one attempts, with 111 of those yards coming on those two touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Offense struggled all day, accumulating 358 total yards on twenty first downs with 180 yards coming via the run, but had one hell of a time moving the chains, converting a miserable 8-of-21 on third down along with each of their three attempts on fourth. Rangel went 18-of-42 for 178 yards, while taking four sacks for a loss of twenty-five yards. Gordon had a strong showing with 136 yards and that score on seventeen carries, while Presley added five receptions for seventy-seven yards to accompany that rushing touchdown. The aforementioned Cobb once again led the Cowboys with eleven tackles, while (Junior Safety) Jason Taylor II snared his sixth interception of the campaign, the most in the Big XII and tied for second-most in the FBS. Looking to tonight’s matchup, the Pokes are 21-11 (.656) all-time in bowls, with much of that coming under Gundy, who owns a stellar 11-5 record in such contests (.687). Last time we saw them in this position, they rallied back from a 28-7 deficit to beat Notre Dame in a wild 37-35 affair in the Fiesta Bowl, with Sanders catching fire on an insane 496 total yards and dour passing touchdowns. From a betting perspective, Oklahoma State is 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have covered the spread in seven of their last ten outings away from Boone Pickens Stadium. They’ve also thrived in this regard as an underdog, owning a 7-3 record when getting points, while also posting a 4-0-1 mark in their last five contests after allowing less than 170 passing yards in the previous game, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, they’ve covered the spread in SIX consecutive bowls, which bodes well for a team that has covered the line in just one of their last five affairs overall. On the injury front, Sanders, Richardson, and Cobb are among the Pokes transferring away from Stillwater, so they’ll be out of action tonight, while (Junior Defensive End) Tyler Lacy is questionable with an undisclosed malady.