8:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Oregon -14.5, Over/Under: 75.0
As the playoff nears there are still plenty of other bowls to roll through, with tonight’s showdown between the fifteenth-ranked Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Holiday Bowl highlighting another day full of juicy affairs. Looking back on his first season at Oregon (9-4,72 in Pac-12), it’s difficult to imagine things going more swimmingly for (Head Coach) Dan Lanning, who guided the school to its fourth nine-win campaign in the last five years. Of course, his predecessor, Mario Cristobal had left the cupboard full of talent for the 36-year-old, who made quite the leap from the SEC to the Pac-12. Ironically, Lanning’s tenure began with his former employers, Georgia, the reigning National Champions who had spent the previous three years coordinating their fearsome Defense. This one went as expected, with the Dawgs thrashing the Ducks in a 49-3 affair in Atlanta. However, from there they would string together an eight-game winning streak in which they averaged a staggering 48.1 points on 546.3 total yards, rising to as high as sixth in the AP Poll, before narrow losses to Washington (37-34) and (bitter rival) Oregon State in the latest edition of Civil War (38-34) kept them out of a place in the Pac-12 Championship Game. So, what do we make of these Ducks, you ask? Well, it’s clear that Lanning has done a tremendous job of building upon the already stable foundation laid by Cristobal, led by a prolific, led by fellow SEC arrival, Bo Nix. Of course, we all know the story with Nix; the fourth generation Auburn Tiger became the first True Freshman to start for the Tigers in ages, and after a solid debut campaign on the plains, endured an up and down ride over the next two years, prompting his move to Eugene following the ousting of Gus Malzhan. (Offensive Coordinator) Kenny Dillingham worked with Nix at Auburn and was instrumental in luring him to the Pacific Northwest, where for all intents and purposes he has resurrected his once promising career. Nix (pictured below) completed a career-best 71.5% of his passes for 3,388 yards on a very healthy 8.9 yards per attempt, with twenty-seven touchdowns in comparison to just six interceptions, while making good use of his legs with 504 yards and another fourteen scores. As Dillingham departs to become Arizona’s new Head Coach, there was speculation that the Senior could declare for the NFL Draft, though those fears were put to rest when he openly stated that he would indeed be returning for his final season, making Oregon a team to watch in 2023. And if you’ve been paying attention to the recruiting circles, then you know that Lanning has created quite the buzz in Eugene, with the Ducks managing to flip a number of highly touted recruits, including (four-star QB) Austin Novosad from UCLA, (four-star RB) Jayden Limar from Notre Dame, (four-star CB) Daylen Austin from LSU, and (five-star DE) Matayo Uiagalelei, the younger brother of D.J., who recently transferred to Oregon State.
When we last saw Oregon, they fell short in their second consecutive trip to Corvalis where they were bested by their eternal adversaries, Oregon State in a spirited 38-34 affair. After four lead changes in the first thirty minutes of action, the Ducks rolled into halftime with a 14-10 lead. However, they would emerge from intermission like a bat out of hell, posting seventeen unanswered points in the first twelve minutes of the third quarter, picking off (OSU QB) Ben Gulbranson on his first pass of the second half, before recovering a fumble on the Beavers’ third drive of the quarter. With that said, even leading 31-10, this one was far from over, as the hosts put together one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the Civil War, outscoring the visitors 28-3 over the final eighteen minutes of play. After kicking a field goal to make it 34-17 early in the final stanza, Lanning’s charges relinquished another touchdown in short succession (just three plays), only to turn right around and fumble the pigskin away on a fourth-and-five from their own 13-yard line. Two plays later, and the Beavers cut the deficit to three points. Questioning the game management of Lanning and Dillingham in this one became all the more necessary after their charges once again went for it on fourth down deep within their own territory, this time a fourth-and-one from their 29-yard line, which again was stopped by the home side, who once more took advantage of the great field position and punched it in for a touchdown, now taking a 38-34 lead. Shellshocked, Oregon attempted one final assault, and though Nix managed to steer them all the way to their opponent’s three-yard line, his final attempt into the end zone fell wide of its mark, ending the affair. When it was all said and done, the Ducks churned out 470 total yards, with Nix carving up the Beaver Defense to the tune of 327 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 27-of-41 passing, though their struggles on fourth down (0-of-5!!!) gave their rivals all the ammunition needed to defeat them, which is precisely what transpired. Looking to tonight’s matchup, Oregon will be making their thirty-sixth appearance in a bowl, owning a 15-20 record (.429) in such postseason affairs, with their most recent offering being a 47-32 loss to Oklahoma in last winter’s Alamo Bowl. From a betting perspective, the Ducks are 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though only a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Autzen Stadium. However, they’ve been a great bet as a favorite of late, covering the spread in all but two of their last games when laying points. Furthermore, they are 6-1 against the spread after failing to cover the line, while matching that record in their last seven contests as a favorite of greater than 10.5 points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, Lanning will be without the services of (Sophomore Linebacker) Noah Sewell, who has opted out of this Holiday Bowl following his declaration for the NFL Draft. Nothing short of an active defender during his time in Eugene, Sewell logged fifty-six tackles, 5.5 for loss, and 1.5 sacks, along with an interception and recovered fumble apiece.
Meanwhile, though Lanning deserves a wealth of credit for quickly has managed to establish a winning culture in a completely new environment, his counterpart on the opposite sideline is continuing to build at North Carolina (9-4, 6-2 in ACC), with very attainable benchmark in their sights. Indeed, the second verse is proving better than the first for (Head Coach) Mack Brown, who in his second stint in Chapel Hill has the Tar Heels headed to heights otherwise unseen for a university that has long been associated with its basketball program. Brown spent ten years at UNC (1988-1997) where he built them into a competitive program, overcoming back-to-back 1-10 campaigns to produce three ten-win seasons en route to compiling a solid 69-46-1 (.594) record. From there he took his talents to Texas, where he would lead the Longhorns for sixteen successful years, capturing their first National Championship since 1970 along the way. However, after five years spent working in the media, he felt that itch to coach again, returning to Chapel Hill to rebuild his former charges once again. The Heels won just five games in the previous two seasons combined prior to Brown’s return, and in his first season back the two-time Coach of the Year led his troops to a 7-6 finish, followed by an 8-4 run in 2019 that saw them participate in the Orange Bowl for the first time in school history. After returning to earth in 2021, primarily due to an exodus of talent, the 71-year-old has bounced back with a nine-win campaign, the school’s best since 2015, with an opportunity to deliver what would be only their second ten-win finish since he left twenty-five years ago. So, what has been the key to their success, you ask? Well, Brown and his coaching staff have done an excellent job of recruiting and developing players, particularly on the offensive side of the football where they have become one of the more prolific attacks in the country. Over the last three years, the Tar Heels have averaged over 30.0 points per game and 460+ total yards, and this year has been no different; (Offensive Coordinator) Phil Longo’s take on the Run & Shoot has produced results in Chapel Hill, with its denizens averaging 35.0 points (23rd in FBS) on 473.6 total yards, including 317.2 through the air and another 156.4 on the ground despite returning just five starters. Of course, the biggest story has been the play of (Redshirt Freshman) Drake Maye, who has lived up to the hype in completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,115 yards on a healthy 8.5 yards per attempt, with thirty-five touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 653 yards and another seven scores en route to capturing ACC Offensive Player of the Year honors by the associated press. With that said, all anyone wants to talk about are the rumors that he could potentially enter the transfer portal for greener pastures. Over the last month, both Brown and (Pittsburgh Head Coach) have commented that Maye (pictured below) was offered $5 million in NIL (Name, Image, and Licensing) deals to transfer. The Freshman, whose parents and older brother all attended North Carolina, has done nothing but reaffirm his comment to the university, and will be among the candidates for next year’s Heisman as well as a highly graded prospect by NFL scouts. It will be interesting to see how he grows under (incoming OC) Chip Lindsey after news broke that Longo, along with (Offensive Line Coach) Jack Bicknell will be taking their talents to Wisconsin to join Luke Fickell’s growing staff. Lindsey, who had spent last season as Central Florida’s Offensive Coordinator will be looking to bring a bit more balance to the Tar Heels, particularly when it comes to the red zone where they ranked just fifty-eighth in the FBS in touchdown efficiency. Lindsey also spent time as Auburn’s Offensive Coordinator under Gus Malzhan, where he ironically coached his Quarterback’s counterpart tonight.
When we last saw North Carolina, they fell to their third consecutive defeat in a 39-10 drubbing at the hands of tenth-ranked Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. As had been the case int e previous two contests, Longo’s prolific Offense had slowed by considerably, failing to crack 400 total yards for a third straight game, amassing 386 yards with a season high THREE turnovers, all of which were charged to Maye. It was a disappointing outcome partly because it started so well for Brown’s troops, who after forcing the Tigers to punt on their opening drive, proceeded to march the football seventy-eight yards downfield in eleven plays, capped off by a three-yard jaunt courtesy of Maye into the end zone. However, from there the Atlantic Division Champions would run off TWENTY-ONE unanswered points to take a commanding 21-7 lead midway through the second quarter, which would prove to be more than enough as the Coastal Division Champions could muster only a field goal the rest of the way. Apart from that rushing score, Maye had hard time moving the football through the air against one of the better Defenses in the country, completing just 26-of-42 passes for 268 yards and a pair of interceptions, the first of which was returned for a touchdown midway through the third period to put the game out of reach. Ironically, it was one of the better defensive performances for the Heels, who haven’t received many of those this season, with (Defensive Coordinator) Charlton Warren’s unit limiting Clemson to 385 total yards, including just sixty-eight on the ground. Looking to tonight’s trip to Petco Park in San Diego, North Carolina will be making their thirty-seventh appearance in a bowl, amassing a 15-21 record (.417) all-time. Brown is a career 14-10 (.583) in these postseason affairs, including 4-4 (.500) over both tenures at Chapel Hill. including a loss in last winter’s Mayo Bowl, 38-21 versus South Carolina. From a betting perspective, the Tar Heels are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games overall and 4-5 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Kenan Memorial Stadium. Furthermore, they are a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games as an underdog, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, a Backfield that has been banged up all year continues to be so, with (Sophomore) Caleb Hood questionable with an unannounced malady, while (Senior Linebacker) Noah Taylor who missed the final four games with a lower body ailment isn’t expected to recover in time for tonight’s affair.