8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Cowboys -13, Over/Under: 41.0
The penultimate week of the regular season kicks off tonight in Nashville, as the Dallas Cowboys continue their march to the playoffs as the fading Tennessee Titans desperately search for a lifeline. With two games left before the postseason, the Cowboys (11-4, 2nd in NFC East) are looking to do something that they didn’t last year: ride into the playoffs with momentum on their side. Last December, Dallas entered the final two weeks of the campaign in contention for the number one overall seed in the NFC, only to lose in controversial fashion against the Cardinals, dropping them to Wild Card Weekend where they were eliminated by a surging 49ers side. Momentum is a precious commodity, and (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy knows this, which makes their recent 40-34 victory over the Eagles last weekend all the more vital. Ironically, they fell to the Jaguars by that exact score a week prior to their rematch with the top-seeded birds, with this matchup featuring a furious rally keyed by big plays from their Defense. We’ll get into that affair in just a bit, but this is where the Cowboys need to be elite; sure, Dak Prescott and the Offense can be explosive, but the play of (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn’s unit has proven to be the difference over the last few seasons. Simply put, McCarthy managing to keep this guy on his coaching staff was a COUP for Dallas, for after setting franchise-worsts in several categories two years ago, Quinn stormed into Arlington and whipped this group into shape, simplifying the scheme and emphasizing takeaways, which they’ve produced in waves. No team in the NFL has forced more turnovers over the last two years, finishing first in 2021 with a staggering THIRTY-FOUR takeaways, while leading the league with THIRTY of them with two games left to play. Seriously, folks, they’ve forced multiple turnovers twenty times over the last thirty-two contests, which breaks down to 62.5% of their total games, all the while posting a 15-4 record when they reach that threshold. Nothing dictates the outcome of these contests more than turnovers, and what leads to turnovers, you ask? PRESSURE. This is where Quinn has really earned his money, for 52-year-old has done a tremendous job of fostering depth and competition on one of the deepest Defensive Lines in the NFL, rotating his personnel masterfully so that they remain fresh and attack in waves. With forty-nine sacks on the campaign (3rd Overall), seven different players have logged at last three sacks, led by (Sophomore sensation) Micah Parsons, who has become even more of a versatile threat in his second season with the Cowboys. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year was initially drafted as a Linebacker, with Quinn utilizing him out of necessity as an edge-rusher throughout his rookie campaign, leading to thirteen sacks, thirty QB hits, twenty tackles for loss, and forty-seven pressures. This season, Parsons (pictured below) has picked up where he left off, matching his sack total while posting twenty-four QB hits, fourteen tackles for loss, and thirty-five pressures, along with a pair of fumbles recoveries, returning one for a score. When this group has the benefit of playing with a lead, they can be a real handful for anyone, particularly when Quinn mixes up his coverages with various stunts and blitz packages. However, given that they’re built on speed and quickness, they can be prone to being manhandled by bigger, more physical Offensive Lines, which was the case against the Jags or the previous matchup with the Eagles, but as we saw last weekend, they’re capable of flipping the script and slowing those teams down when they need to…
When we last saw the Cowboys, they avenged their previous defeat at the hands of the Eagles, rallying back to earn a 40-34 victory at AT&T Stadium on Christmas Eve. This one was set up for Dallas to succeed, for it was announced earlier int he week that Philadelphia’s MVP candidate Quarterback, Jalen Hurts, would miss the affair with an injured shoulder. Granted, even with a backup at QB, the visitors proved to be a formidable side, racing out to an early 10-0 lead as Prescott was intercepted on his third pass of the night, as Josh Sweat snared the football out of midair and returned it forty-two yards for the score. With that said, the Pro-Bowler put that mistake behind him, swiftly marching the hosts seventy-five yards downfield in fourteen plays, as (veteran Tailback) Ezekiel Elliott jaunted one yards into the end zone to cut the deficit to three. Then, Quinn’s Defense made an impact as (veteran Safety) Jayron Kearse picked off Garnder Minshew little over a minute later, leading directly to another touchdown, this time a26-yard strike from Prescott to (Sophomore Receiver) CeeDee Lamb to take the lead. Philly would punch back with a touchdown drive of their own, and while McCarthy’s troops would kick a field goal on the ensuing drive, the visiting side would drill one of their own to take a 20-17 lead heading into halftime. After a quick punt following intermission, the Eagles would breach the end zone once more, though the home side would kick another field goal, followed by another takeaway courtesy of Kearse, who recovered a mishandled snap from Minshew, teeing up Prescott for another touchdown, this time a 12-yard completion to (veteran Wideout) Michael Gallup to tie it up at 27-27. The duel would continue between Prescott and Minshew, with the two passers exchanging touchdowns, though (Rookie Cornerback) DaRon Bland turned the tide for good with an interception, setting up (veteran Kicker) Brett Maher for the go-ahead field goal, only for the cowboys to force another fumble two plays later, putting Maher in position to nail another kick, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, both teams put up well over 400 total yards, though those four turnovers were absolutely decisive, directly leading to twenty points for the hosts. Prescott was 27-of-35 passing for 347 yards, three touchdowns and that pick, with Lamb hauling all but one of his eleven targets for 120 yards and a pair of scores. Looking to tonight’s matchup in the Music City, the road team has won each of the last four meetings dating back to 2006, with the most recent being a 28-14 Titans victory at AT&T Stadium four years ago. In that contest, Prescott was 21-of-31 passing for 243 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, though was sacked on five occasions, losing a losing a crucial fumble in the second half that sapped their momentum. Self-inflicted wounds were theme of the day here, as Dallas missed a 38-yard field goal on the opening drive and followed each of their touchdowns with turnovers on the following possession. The Cowboys are 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have been a better bet on the road, where they’ve covered seven of their last ten trips away from North Texas. 6-4 in their last ten contests as a favorite, Dallas has also covered six consecutive games after giving up thirty or more points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, McCarthy has as many cases on his hands as any coach this time of year, with the likes of (Safety) Jayron Kearse, (Linebacker) Leighton Vander Esch, and (Defensive End) Demarcus Lawrence listed as day-to-day following that rally over the Eagles, while Pollard shares that designation with a bruised thigh.
Meanwhile, fortunes can change very quickly in the National Football League, which describes the Titans’ (7-8, 2n n AFC South) predicament at the moment, where after looking like the clear favorite to win their third consecutive division title for half of the season, have suddenly found themselves on the outside looking in of the playoffs, with the situation becoming nigh untenable for (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel. Indeed, Tennessee earned the number one overall seed in the AFC last winter and were expected to vie for the postseason for a fourth straight year, though a swath of injuries and some general poor play have seen them drop five consecutive games at the worst possible time of the season. So, what in the name of Bruce Matthews has happened in Nashville, you ask? Well, under Vrabel’s reign this team has been the proverbial pain in the ass that oftentimes plays to the level of their competition, never really blowing anyone out but doing just enough to win close games. That was the case during their 7-3 start, in which they only outscored their opponents by a total of EIGHT points. However, during this recent losing skid, they’ve been outscored by fifty-one points. As we stated earlier with their opponent tonight, turnovers are the most decisive factor in these contests, and during their fortunate start they earned a +2-turnover differential, but over the last five outings they’ve posted a miserable -5 differential, giving away the pigskin on eight occasions over the last three games alone. Sure, (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry is still running strong at the age of twenty-eight, but the Offense has lacked weapons in the passing game all year, which only shines more light on the perplexing decision to trade away (Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft, a move that drew the ire of Vrabel on national television, and ultimately cost (General Manager) Jon Robinson his job. Ironically, the Titans relieved Robinson of his duties after an embarrassing 35-10 loss at the Eagles, whom he traded Brown to, with the explosive pass-catcher torching his former employers for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, Tennessee hasn’t won since firing Robinson, which coincided with the season-ending injury to (veteran Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a broken ankle two weeks later in narrow 17-14 loss at the Chargers. With the 34-year-old on the mend, it’s now up to (Rookie QB) Malik Willis to carry the torch, but it’s become very clear that the eighty-sixth overall pick is in over his head at this point of his young career. In three starts, the 23-year-old has completed just 50.8% of his passes for 276 yards on a scant 3.20 net yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and three interceptions, while taking ten sacks on just sixty-one passing attempts. That translates to a 14.1% sack percentage, which doesn’t equate to success, folks. Sure, it’s easy to envision Willis (pictured below) simply handing the ball off to Henry play after play, but when opposing defenses know that that’s coming, it comes down to the kid to make some plays, and he is clearly too raw at this point to provide what this team needs to be successful in the passing game. It also certainly hasn’t helped that the Defense has been getting absolutely roasted during this losing streak, with the pass defense struggling in particular to the tune of 305.0 yards per game on 7.69 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions. Furthermore, opposing Quarterbacks have met very little resistance in completing 67.0% of their attempts and posting a passer rating of 98.7. And that is how they’ve been leapfrogged by the Jaguars within the division, with their rematch at Nissan Stadium setting the stage for a CRUCIAL season finale. If they fail to make stop the bleeding, will Vrabel return? How about Tannehill? The winds of change could be blowing soon in Tennessee…
When we last saw the Titans, they lost their fifth consecutive game, a listless 19-14 showing against the lowly Texans, who owned the worst record in the league. Tennessee has OWNED Houston in the past, but that would NOT be the case in this one, for after taking a 14-10 lead midway through the third quarter, the home side were utterly unable to much of anything with the football in their possession. Seriously, folks, after Willis strolled into the end zone for the go-ahead score, Vrabel’s charges picked off Davis Mills at roughly midfield with an opportunity to really extend their lead, yet proceeded to turn it over on downs four plays later, punt it away on the following drive, lose possession altogether via a fumble from the aforementioned Henry on the next one, punt it away once more, before Willis was intercepted on each of his final two series, ending what had to be one of the most frustrating turn of events in recent memory for the everyone at Nissan Stadium. The hosts could muster just 272 total yards of offense on sixteen first downs, converting only 4-of-12 third downs, despite churning out 184 rushing yards on thirty-one carries. Sure, Henry got his with 126 yards and a touchdown on the ground, but that fumble was crucial, while Willis’ inability to move the football downfield was detrimental to their efforts. The rookie finished with a mere ninety-nine yards and two interceptions on 14-of-23 passing, and though he made some plays with his feet, he was sacked four times, hit on five occasions, and pressured four more. Defensively, they paid dearly for letting the visitors hang around, with the aforementioned Mills eventually exploiting the many holes in their coverage. Looking to tonight’s showdown at Nissan Stadium, these teams haven’t met very frequently (just once every four years), but the Titans got the better of the Cowboys when they last encountered each other, a 28-14 victory in 2018. Though he wasn’t quite the juggernaut that we know him to be today, Henry did find the end zone in this one, rushing for twenty-seven yards on just six carries before exiting with an injury. From a betting perspective, Tennessee is struggling big time, failing to cover the spread in four consecutive games now, though last weekend’s trip to the City of Angels ended in a push (+3). 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games in Nashville, they’ve lost three straight contests against the spread there, though are 3-1 in that regard when they’ve been branded as an underdog by the oddsmakers. With that said, they have covered the spread in six of their last seven games after an outing in which they’ve rushed for at least 150 yards, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, we covered Tannehill’s status with Willis expected to finish the campaign as the starter, though the rest of the injury list is long for Vrabel; (Defensive Lineman) Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons, (Linebacker) Zach Cunningham, and (Edge-Rusher) Bud Dupree, along (Defensive Backs) Kristian Fulton, and Amani Hooker re listed as day-to-day with various ailments, with their respective status in question for this short week. Oh, and a late addition to the injury report was none other than Henry, who is listed as doubtful with an ailing hip. If the venerable Tailback misses this one, then it goes without saying that the Titans will be short of options on the offensive side of the football.