8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Georgia -5.5, Over/Under: 62.5
Happy new year to everyone from the good folks here at Oracle Sports, and what better way to celebrate the turn of the calendar than with a National Semifinal, as the top-ranked reigning champion, Georgia Bulldogs battle the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes? While the college football landscape has seen a wealth of change over the past year, NOTHING has changed for Georgia (13, 8-0 in SEC), absolutely NOTHING. Just as they did a year ago, the Bulldogs marched through the regular season unbeaten on their way to the playoff, as (Head Coach) Kirby Smart appears to have successfully built his alma mater into a bonafide monster in Athens. However, whereas they were stunned by Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship, this year’s incarnation of the Dawgs bested LSU on that same stage in a 50-30 route little over a month ago (much more on this one in a little bit). The major question coming into this campaign was how Smart would replace EIGHT starters from the most dominant defense in the country; Georgia allowed the fewest points in the land (10.2) on just 269.0 total yards per game, including 190.0 yards against the pass and another 79.0 yards versus the run in 2021, with EIGHT selected in last spring’s NFL Draft, including FIVE in the first round alone. Well, a little-known fact about this group is that no team played more underclassmen on this side of the football last season than the Bulldogs, with Smart and his staff doing a tremendous job of developing his depth by rotating personnel, which has been very evident this season. The Dawgs have relinquished just 12.8 points (2nd in FBS) on 292.1 total yards, including 215.1 yards against the pass and another 77.0 yards versus the run. Sure, they may not have produced as many takeaways (16) and are waaaaaaay off their sack total from a year ago with twenty-six, but they’ve been able to make up for that with a more experienced Offense led by (Super Senior Quarterback) Stetson Bennett. Of course, at this point with all know the story with “the Mailman”, who after returning to the program as a walk-on back in 2019 patiently waited for his opportunity until striking gold in 2021, eventually earning Offensive MVP of both the National Semifinal and Final. Returning to Athens for his final year of eligibility, Bennett (pictured below) has completed 67.9% of his passes for 3,425 yards on 8.6 yards per attempt with twenty touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, while proving to be an underrated in the red zone with another seven scores of the rushing variety. As usual, there has been a platoon of talented Tailbacks behind him, led by (Junior) Kenny McIntosh with 709 yards and ten touchdowns on a healthy 5.2 yards per carry, with the likes of (Sophomores) Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton not far behind him with 683 and 531 yards respectively, However, where McIntosh differs from the rest of his teammates in the Backfield is as a pass-catcher, reeling in thirty-seven receptions for 450 yards and another touchdown. And speaking of pass-catchers, (Sophomore Tight End) Brock Bowers erupted as a true Freshman a year ago, establishing himself as the nation’s top player at his position, leading the Dawgs in catches (52), receiving yards (726), and touchdown receptions (6), while (Sophomore Wideout) Ladd McKonkey has posted fifty-one catches for 675 yards and five scores of his own, with both players also factoring into the run game, not just as blockers, but as threats of their own with a combined 213 yards and five touchdowns of their own. Add it all up and this team has the talent, depth, and experience to not only become the first repeat National Champion of the playoff era (2014), but the first to repeat as National Champions since Alabama did it back in 2011. Of course, Smart is well acquainted with that fact, for served as the Crimson Tide’s Defensive Coordinator during that period.
When we last saw Georgia, they earned their first SEC Championship since 2017 in a 50-30 triumph over LSU, setting them up as the number one seed in today’s playoff. This one was a bit of an odd affair, for despite yielding season-highs in points (30), total yards (549), and passing yards (502), the outcome was never in question as the Bulldogs led by as many as twenty-eight points late in the first half. Indeed, this contest was all Dawgs for the first thirty minutes, as Smart’s troops opened the affair with a 32-yard touchdown return off a blocked field goal, opening the floodgates with four touchdown passes from Bennett to four different Receivers to take a commanding 35-7 lead before the Tigers added a field goal to make it 35-10 heading into halftime. It was clear that the SEC East Champions took their foot off the gas after intermission, as their western counterparts were forced to take their chances in the is passing game in a frantic attempt to get back into the game. In the end, Bennett & Co amassed 529 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, rushing for 255 yards on forty-four carries, while the veteran Quarterback completed an efficient 23-of-29 passes for 274 yards and those four touchdowns. The triumvirate of McIntosh, Edwards, and Milton accounted for the bulk of their rushing yardage, with McIntosh breaching the end zone twice and Milton leading the way with a team-high 113 yards on just eight carries. As for Bowers and McKonkey, the former totaled six receptions for eighty-one yards and a touchdown, while the latter posted five catches for sixty-nine yards and a 22-yard score. Defensively, the reigning champs were active despite giving up all those passing yards, matching a season-high with three takeaways, while logging four sacks and eight tackles for loss. Looking to tonight’s semifinal, Georgia is making their sixtieth bowl appearance, owning a stellar 35-21-3 record (.619) in these postseason affairs, with Smart posting a 6-2 record in such games. From a betting perspective, the Bulldogs are 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have covered the spread in seven of their last ten contests away from Athens. On the injury front, both (Freshman Tight End) Arik Gilbert and the aforementioned McKonkey left that affair with LSU with respective ailments, though they are both expected to take the gridiron in this semifinal from the Peach Bowl, which is of course, right in Georgia’s backyard.
Meanwhile, the final team to qualify for the playoff is Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten), who return to college football’s final four after missing out altogether last winter. Of course, the Buckeyes were the first team to win the playoff, doing so as an improbable victor back in 2014, where they were led by a third-string Quarterback in a series of dramatic upsets. The last time that we saw Brutus & Co in this setting, they were utterly EMBARRASSED by Alabama in the 2020 National Championship Game, where they were torched for a ridiculous fifty-two points and 621 total yards. Two years later, and we find (Head Coach) Ryan Day’s troops in a similar situation as clear underdogs against another SEC powerhouse. So, how does this team stack up against the defending champs, you ask? Well, if there is a unit that figures to be able to test the Bulldogs staunch Defense, then it’s likely to be the Scarlet & Gray. Day has proven to be one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport, and his passing game is certainly one of the most prolific in the country. On the season, this unit has averaged 44.5 points per game (2nd in FBS) on 492.7 total yards, including 294.2 yards through the air on a very healthy 9.39 yards per attempt. For the second year in a row, (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Stroud was invited to the Heisman ceremony, and though he left emptyhanded on both occasions, he enters this playoff as the most dangerous passer by any metric. Though not as unreal as his freshman campaign was, Stroud (pictured below) still turned heads in completing an efficient 66.2% of his passes for 3,340 yards on 9.4 yards per attempt, with thirty-seven touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions. Granted, he did lose a pair of first round picks at Receiver (Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson), and (Sophomore Wideout) Jaxson Smith-Njigba was relegated to just three games due to a lingering hamstring malady. However, there is no shortage of talent in Columbus, with (fellow Sophomore) Marvin Harrison Jr. absolutely erupting for seventy-two receptions, 1,157 yards, and a dozen touchdowns. The Biletnikoff award finalist topped 100 receiving yards on six occasions this season, all the while developing a habit of turning up in the Buckeye’s biggest games; he torched Penn State ten catches and 185 yards back in late October, while hauling in seven receptions for 120 yards and a score in defeat against Michigan (much more on this affair in a moment). With that said, the question mark in this semifinal is going to be the Defense, which was the concern coming into the campaign to begin with. After getting eviscerated by the Crimson Tide two years ago and falling short of the playoff last winter, Day felt the need to make a change, which he did in hiring (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State. With eight returning starters at his disposal, Knowles presided over a unit that started strong, yielding 14.8 points on 239.7 total yards, including just 90.8 against the run and only four rushing scores over the course of the first seven games. However, after escaping Penn State in a 44-31 affair, they shipped averages of 25.4 points, 393.6 total yards, and 160.6 of the rushing variety with six such scores over the final five contests. Hell, in the last two outings alone, against Maryland and Michigan, the Buckeyes were torched for a combined SEVENTY-FIVE points and 932 total yards! Coincidentally, Ohio State forced four turnovers in that affair with the Nittany Lions and have managed just one takeaway in the four games that have followed.
When we last saw Ohio State, we saw the tide officially turn in the greatest rivalry in college football, as they dropped their second consecutive meeting with Michigan for the first time since 2000. Indeed, this 45-23 defeat was tougher to swallow than last year’s 42-27 loss at the Big House, for this one was contested at the Horseshoe and happened without one of the Wolverines’ biggest weapons. With Blake Corum sidelined with a knee injury, the train of thought was that the Buckeyes would be able to contain the ground game of their eternal adversaries, but that simply wasn’t the case as Knowles’ troops were TRAMPLED to the tune of season-high 252 rushing yards and three touchdowns on thirty-five carries, the majority of which came in the second half. This affair was tightly contested in the first half, with the two sides trading blows throughout the first two periods, as the hosts took a 20-17 lead into intermission. However, the final thirty minutes were all Maise & Blue, with the visitors scoring all but three of the game’s final thirty-one points. Big plays were the story of this contest, with the Scarlet & Gray shipping FIVE touchdowns of forty-five yards or more, including a pair of runs late in the final stanza of seventy-five and eighty-five yards apiece. It wasn’t an enjoyable afternoon for Stroud, who despite completing 31-of-48 passes for 349 yards and a pair of touchdowns, was intercepted twice and under pressure throughout. (Sophomore Receiver) Emeka Egbuka and the aforementioned Harrison accounted for the bulk of the passing yards with a combined 245 yards and two scores on sixteen catches, though the ground game never really found its footing against Michigan’s relentless defense. Looking to tonight’s Peach Bowl, Ohio State is making their fifty-fifth appearance in a bowl, amassing a 27-27 record (.500) in these postseason affairs, with Day owning a 2-2 mark since becoming the Head Coach four years ago. From a betting perspective, the Buckeyes are also 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games overall, though have really struggled away from Ohio Stadium, covering the spread in just three of their last ten trips away from Columbus. With that said, Brutus & Co have fancied being underdogs in these bowls, for they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven neutral site affairs as an underdog between 3.5 to 10.0 points and 5-1 in their six bowls when getting points within that range. Furthermore, they’re 18-4-1 against the spread over their last twenty-three games overall as an underdog within that range. However, there are some other trends working against them, as they’ve failed to cover the spread against each of their last four opponents who have had a winning record, while covering the number in just one of their last six contests following a straight-up loss and relinquishing at least twenty points. On the injury front, (Sophomore Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson is out for the rest of the campaign with a broken foot, though (fellow Tailback) Miyan Williams is expected to start tonight after suffering from an undisclosed illness over the past few weeks.