4:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Michigan -7.5, Over/Under: 58.5
Happy New Year from everyone here at Oracle Sports, and what better way to bring in 2023 than with a pair of National Semifinals, as the third-ranked TCU Horned Frogs battle the second-ranked Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl? If there is a Cinderella to be found in this final four, it’s absolutely TCU (12-1, 9-0 in Big XII), who coming into the season were projected as a middle of the pack Big XII side. Indeed, the Horned Frogs weren’t even ranked until early October, with (Head Coach) Sonny Dykes elevating a program that had tailed off over the latter years of the Gary Patterson administration, winning no more than seven games in each of the last four campaigns. Of course, the Texas native was a logical successor to Patterson, having served as an offensive analyst in Fort Worth back in 2017, before going on to enjoy four solid seasons at SMU where he posted a 30-18 record (.625) with a trip to the Boca Raton Bowl in 2019. A longtime disciple of Mike Leach’s (RIP) Air Raid scheme, Dykes, the newly minted recipient for AP National Coach of the Year honors, has taken a very experienced Offense returning ten starters and turned them into one of the most prolific attacks in the country. Last season, the toads averaged just 28.7 points per game on 436.0 total yards, including 240.0 through the air, only to erupt this season on 40.3 points (6th in FBS), 473.0 total yards, including 273.0 yards via the pass. The biggest recipient of the 53-year-old’s presence has been (Junior Quarterback) Max Duggan, who after overcoming a QB competition over the summer ultimately emerged as a Heisman finalist, completing 64.9% of his attempts for 3,321 yards on a healthy 9.0 yards per pass, with thirty touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, while rushing for 404 yards and another six scores. Duggan (pictured below) has surpassed 300 passing yards five times this season, while tossing three or more touchdowns on seven occasions. However, as potent as Texas Christian has been this season, they aren’t really coming into this showdown in the Fiesta Bowl on heater; narrow road victories over the likes of Texas (17-10) and Baylor (29-28) in successive weeks may have exposed this team’s weaknesses, as Duggan struggled to move the football in inclement weather against the Longhorns (19-of-29, 124 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT), while the Defense was eviscerated for 501 total yards a week later at the Bears. This, of course, set up their fateful encounter with Kansas State in the Big XII Championship Game, which saw Dykes’ troops suffer their first defeat of the season, a 31-28 affair that needed overtime to crown a victor (much more on this one shortly). It was the second meeting of the season between the Frogs and Wildcats, and it took a furious rally for Duggan & Co to escape K-State unblemished, 38-28. So, the question coming into this matchup is this: can TCU’s Defense hold up against Michigan’s punishing ground game? On the season, (Defensive Coordinator) Joe Gillespie’s charges have yielded 25.0 points per game (56th in FBS) on 385.1 total yards, including 149.0 yards versus the run on 4.1 yards per carry, though over the last three contests have shipped 198.7 yards on 4.9 yards per rush with six touchdowns. This group will need to create some havoc on this side of the football, which they have managed to do throughout the season; in thirteen games, they’ve logged nineteen takeaways (fourteen of which being interceptions), twenty-six sacks, and seventy-one tackles for loss. (Senior Defensive End) Dylan Horton and (Junior Linebacker) Dee Winters have been playmakers with a combined fourteen sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss, four defended passes and a fumble recovery, while (Sophomore Safety) Bud Clark and (Junior Cornerbacks) Josh Newton and Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson have been ballhawks with a total of ten interceptions, and twenty-seven defended passes, and a touchdown return. Granted, that’s largely in the Big XII, and it remains to be seen of that performance will translate to an elite denizen of the Big Ten, or Dykes has openly stated to the media, “We remain in a fight for credibility”. Ah, playing the underdog card never gets old…
When we last saw TCU, that fateful rematch against Kansas State did NOT end the way they wanted it to, depriving them of the Big XII Championship that they were favored to earn. As was the case in their first meeting, the Frogs struggled to slow down the Wildcats, and were forced to rally back in the end, though this time their comeback bid fell short. There were two major differences between this encounter and its predecessor: first, Duggan completed 17-of-26 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns with ZERO turnovers in the first matchup in comparison to totaling 251 yards, a touchdown and an interception in this one, while the second difference was a more experienced Will Howard. The K-State Quarterback was thrusted into action early in the previous meeting following an injury to Adrian Martinez, and while he performed well, a crucial interception in the fourth quarter helped facilitate the toads’ comeback. This time around, Howard was more comfortable in the proverbial saddle, completing 18-of-32 passes for 199 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another to boot. As for Duggan, the Heisman finalist completed 18-of-36 passes for 251 yards, a touchdown and an interception, though managed to push the game into overtime on an eight-play, 80-yard drive culminating in an 8-yard rushing score by the Junior. Unfortunately, this would not be one of those wild, classic Big XII overtime affairs, for after turning it over on downs following two rushing attempts at the Wildcats’ one-yard line, Kansas State ended the game with a 31-yard field goal. When it was all said and done, Dykes kids amassed 469 total yards on eighteen first downs, rushing for 218 yards on thirty-seven carries, though moving the chains proved difficult, converting just 2-of-15 third downs and 3-of-4 on fourth down. Duggan made plays throughout the afternoon with his legs, rushing for a team-high 110 yards and a score on fifteen carries, while (Sophomore Tailback) added eighty-two yards and a score of his own on seventeen attempts, though failed to punch it in on back-to-back attempts from the goal line. K-State piled up 404 total yards with 205 of that number coming on the ground. Looking to today’s matchup, TCU is making their thirty-fifth appearance in a bowl, owning a 17-16-1 record (.515) with this Fiesta Bowl marking their first postseason affair in four years. As for Dykes, he is 1-3 all-time in bowls, with his most recent offering being that aforementioned Boca Raton Bowl, where his Mustangs getting blown out by Florda Atlantic, 52-28 three years ago. The Horned Frogs are 6-3 against the spread over the last ten games overall, though they are 4-5 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Amon G. Carter Stadium. Furthermore, they are 4-0-1 in their last five games after rushing for 200 or more yards, which is the case today. They’ve been mediocre as an underdog, covering four of the last ten games when getting points. On the injury front, the only player in question is (Sophomore Receiver) Quincy Brown, who has been out since mid-September with an undisclosed ailment.
Meanwhile, coming into this season the only question that was on the minds of everyone in Ann Arbor was what Michigan (13-0, 9-0 in Big Ten) would do for an encore in 2022? After enjoying their most successful campaign since the late 90s, in which they won their first Big Ten title since 2004, while making their first appearance in the College Football Playoff since its inception back in 2016, the Wolverines’ run ultimately ended in the National Semifinal against (eventual National Champion) Georgia. (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh, who earned AP National Coach of the Year honors along the way, was the subject of intense NFL rumors throughout the winter, though they would eventually be put to rest as the 59-year-old signed a new contract with his alma mater and in turn put together yet another highly touted recruiting class to ensure that the program continues its growth into a juggernaut. So, how has the sequel played out for the Maise & Blue, you ask? Well, it’s played out near identically to this point. Michigan once again ran through their schedule unblemished, with just one conference game decided by fewer than thirteen points, and for the second year in a row bested their eternal rivals, Ohio State, though this one was undoubtedly sweeter than las year’s triumph, due to the fact that this one occurred in Columbus. Indeed, the Wolverines haven’t left the Horseshoe victorious in twenty-two years, with this 45-23 thumping signaling a potential shift in the greatest rivalry in college football. Much like last year’s incarnation, this team has thrived on the strength of a dominant Defense and punishing ground game, though this group has been a bit stronger on the offensive side of the football. Continuity has been the key here, folks, for after returning ten staters a year ago and averaging 35.8 points on 443.0 total yards, this unit has brought back nine starters and posted 40.1 points per game (7th in FBS) on 453.5 total yards, the most during Harbaugh’s tenure with the program. Everything starts with the run with this team, and they’ve trampled their opponents to the tune of 243.0 yards per game on a very healthy 5.6 yards per carry, both of which represent high marks during the Harbaugh era, churning out at least 225 rushing yards in all but four of their outings this year, including in seven of their final eight game f the schedule. The difference this year has been that the Backfield has featured more of a variety of playmakers than in previous seasons, with (Sophomore Tailback) Blake Corum bringing a home-run threat to group that has been in rare in Ann Arbor. Third in the Big Ten with 1,463 yards on an explosive 5.9 yards per carry, Corum (pictured below) has proven capable of taking it to the house whenever he touches the pigskin. Granted, he suffered a lower-leg injury in a narrow 19-17 victory over Illinois back in mid-November and was relegated to just six touches before leaving the field of play at Ohio State, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status for this one. With that said, (fellow Sophomore) Donovan Edwards has been more than capable of performing in his stead, bringing 872 yards and seven touchdowns to the table, along with a pass-catching dimension to his skillset that makes him a formidable weapon in his own right. Edwards averaged a whopping 7.5 yards per carry and hauled in seventeen receptions for 192 yards and two more scores, including a combined 401 yards and three touchdowns in their wins over Ohio State and Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game (much more on that one shortly). However, the most noticeable difference between this team and its predecessor is at Quarterback, where (Sophomore) J.J. McCarthy has taken over for Cade McNamara, who started in last winter’s playoff. McNamara struggled mightily against the Bulldogs (11-of-19, 106 yards, 2 interceptions), and was quickly supplanted by McCarthy earlier this season, with his fellow Soph doing more than simply managing the game, in completing an efficient 65.3% of his passes for 2,376 yards on a healthy 8.3 yards per attempt with twenty touchdowns in comparison to just three interceptions, while rushing for another four scores to boot. Sporting a bigger frame, a stronger arm, and good mobility, it’s no surprise that McCarthy has emerged as QB1, though it remains to be seen if he will prove to be the difference in a potential rematch with Georgia.
When we last saw Michigan, they wrapped up their second consecutive Big Ten Championship with a relatively easy 43-22 romp over Purdue. This one was surprisingly feisty early on, with the Boilermakers taking an early 10-7 lead and trailing by just one point at halftime. However, the Wolverines followed intermission with fourteen unanswered points, courtesy of touchdown runs by (Junior Linebacker) Kalel Mullings and the aforementioned Edwards, the latter of which stormed twenty-seven yards into the end zone to make it 28-13 less than five minutes into the second half. While their opponent could do no better than settle for field goals, Harbaugh’s charges had no such issues, with McCarthy finding (Senior Receiver) Ronnie Bell for a 17-yard strike, before Mullings added an insurance score in with another short touchdown run. In the end, Maise & Blue may have relinquished 456 total yards on a season-high twenty-seven first downs, but the bulk of that yardage came in garbage time while holding a sizeable lead, shipping three instead of six, while forcing a pair of turnovers along the way. The East Division Champions amassed 386 yards of their own on seventeen first downs, converting half of their twelve third downs and each of their attempts on fourth. McCarthy completed 11-of-17 passes for 161 yards, three touchdowns to three different targets and an interception, while Edwards ran wild with 185 yards and a score on twenty-five carries. (Freshman Cornerback) Will Johnson intercepted Aiden O’Connell twice, while (Junior Defensive End) Jaylen Harrell and (Senior Linebacker) Michael Barrett combined for three sacks and a dozen tackles. Looking to today’s matchup, Michigan will be appearing in their fiftieth bowl, owning a 21-18 record (.429) in these postseason affairs, though carry a five-game losing streak in this regard. Harbaugh is just 2-6 all-time in bowls, including 1-5 at his alma mater. From a betting perspective, the Wolverines are 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though are a stellar 8-2 against the spread in their last ten trips away from the Big House. They’ve also covered the spread in six of their last ten contests wen branded a favorite by the oddsmakers, while also covering five straight outings after relinquishing over 280 passing yards in the previous game, which is the case today. Of course, that losing streak in these bowls has also extended on over to their performance against the spread, where they’ve failed to cover the line in each of their last five such affairs. On the injury front, Corum is likely to miss this showdown after undergoing surgery following the finale in Columbus, while the returns of (Sophomore Linebacker) Nikhai Hill-Green and (Sophomore Safety) Caden Kolesar are unlikely with the former beset by a soft issue malady to his lower leg, while the latter tore his ACL back in early October.