8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Jaguars -6, Over/Under: 40
The final weekend of the regular season is finally here, and by design there is PLENTY of business to be decided, including the fate of the AFC South as the fading Tennessee Titans battle the surging Jacksonville Jaguars, with the victor taking the division and hosting a wild card in the upcoming playoffs. My, oh my, what a difference a year has made for the Titans (7-9, 2nd in AFC South), who just twelve months after securing the number one overall seed in the AFC, have found themselves mired within their longest losing streak under the current regime and on the precipice of missing the postseason for the first time in four years. One of the most doggedly frustrating teams to compete against, Tennessee has thrived in recent seasons as a throwback to the days of NFL past, employing that tried-and-true approach of running the football, playing sound defense, and not beating themselves, leading to a 32-17 record (.653) over the previous three years. This current campaign started promising enough, as (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel’s troops rebounded nicely from an 0-2 start to win seven of their next eight contests, creating a high insurmountable lead within the division. However, when we talk of collapses in professional sports, this one could go down on the one of the most understated in recent memory; after amassing a 7-3 record through eleven weeks, the Titans have dropped SIX consecutive games, including their previous meeting with the Jaguars, a 36-22 meltdown in Nashville last month. So, what in the name of Steve McNair has happened in Music City, you ask? Well, we have to remember that this is a team that frequently finds themselves in close games thanks to the way that they play, with their first ten games decided by a mere EIGHT points. Unfortunately, they’ve begun to find themselves on the wrong end of those affairs of late, with their last three defeats coming by a combined twenty-two points. During this period, (longtime General Manager) Jon Robinson was surprisingly relieved of his duties, while (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain along the way, leaving the team without a viable option at QB. Vrabel (pictured below) and Robinson drafted Malik Willis in the third round of last spring’s NFL Draft to eventually take over for Tannehill, though the rookie has proven far too raw to rely upon in the few appearances that he’s made, leading the club to bring in (veteran journeyman) Joshua Dobbs, who wasn’t even on the roster when they last met the Jags, to help stop the bleeding and right the proverbial ship. Needless to say, that’s an awfully big ask for a guy who wasn’t even in the league last year, which was apparent in last week’s 27-13 loss to the Cowboys (more on this one shortly). During this losing streak, the Offense has been both dreadful and mistake-prone, averaging a scant 14.8 points on 298.3 total yards, including just 182.5 yards via the pass on a scant 5.22 net yards per attempt with four touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. Furthermore, they’ve conceded TWENTY-ONE sacks while also committing ten turnovers in the last four weeks alone. Simply put, you’ll be hard-pressed to win many games in today’s NFL with that lack of production at Quarterback. With that said, the Defense is culpable for their struggles too, for opposing Quarterbacks have enjoyed far too much success during this stretch, completing 67.7% of their attempts for an average of 300.0 yards on 7.48 net yards per attempt with ten touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions. Injuries have weighed heavily on this unit, with many pointing to the fact that they haven’t been able to catch a break since enjoying their bye week waaaaaaaay back in week six. Altogether, is has created quite a cloudy picture for the franchise moving forward. With Robinson gone, what will the future hold for Vrabel? Will he remain in place and influence who is hired to be the new GM, or will the Adams family opt to clean house? What of Tannehill and (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Heny, who have each entered the latter stages of their careers on expensive contracts? Indeed, this team could look VERY different come March…
When we last saw the Titans, they fell to their six consecutive loss, this time against the Cowboys in a 27-13 midweek primetime affair. This one is difficult to read into, folks, for the simple fact that in lieu of tonight’s rematch with Jacksonville, Tennessee opted to sit many notable starters due to the fact that that outcome would have no bearing on their potential to win a third consecutive division title. As such, Vrabel made a change at Quarterback, benching the aforementioned Willis in favor of Dobbs, whom they added to the roster before Christmas. Making the first start of his career, the 27-year-old put forth an uneven performance against one of the best Defenses in the league, completing 20-of-39 passes for 232 yards with a touchdown and an interception, along with a pair of fumbles, one of which was lost. The hosts were unable to get much of anything going until about midway through the third quarter, posting a mere 146 total yards and six points over their first seven possessions, before finally mustering 14-play, 71-yard drive culminating in a 7-yard touchdown pass from Dobbs to (veteran Receiver) Robert Woods. However, that would be all she wrote, for after a quick three-and-out, Dobbs was intercepted on the second play of the ensuing drive, before turning it over on downs on the next possession at midfield. In the end, the home side totaled just 317 yards of total offense and were limited to ninety-seven rushing yards on twenty-four attempts, possessing the pigskin for only 26:34 of game time. There was no Henry to be found in this one, as the three-time Pro-Bowler was rested with a sore hip, which explains some of their struggles on this side of the football. However, we’ll give credit where credit is due, for Vrabel’s Defense did a solid job of containing what can certainly be an explosive Dallas attack, yielding 361 total yards, including just eighty-one against the run, while forcing three turnovers, two of which were interceptions of Dak Prescott. Looking to tonight’s crucial rematch in Northern Florida, the Titans have won eight of their last ten meetings between these division rivals, including five in a row before that aforementioned defeat at Nissan Stadium. If Henry is in fact 100%, then he figures to play a prominent role in this affair; the 29-year-old has absolutely OWNED Jacksonville over the course of his career, trampling them to the tune of 105.3 rushing yards on a very healthy 5.5 yards per carry with twenty-three total touchdowns over the course of a dozen encounters. Hell, he nearly cracked the century mark in the first quarter of their last meeting, though a pair of lost fumbles proved to detrimental to his team’s efforts. From a betting perspective, Tennessee is 4-5-1 against the spread in their last ten games overall, while posting a 5-4-1 record in that regard in their last ten trips away from Nashville, equaling that mark over their last ten outings as an underdog. However, this losing streak has not been kind to bettors, who haven’t seen them cover the spread in any of these six affairs. On the injury front, even with the added time off after playing on a Thursday and resting many of their number of the starters, there are still plenty of notables to keep an eye on; a decimated Secondary is hoping to get (Defensive Backs) Kristian Fulton and Amani Hooker back in action, while (impactful Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons is questionable after nursing a sprained ankle for weeks. Furthermore, (Rookie Receiver) Treylon Burks is also listed as questionable with a nagging hamstring injury that he has been dealing with for two months.
Meanwhile, there have been many great stories around the NFL this season, though one of the best has to be the resurrection of the Jaguars (8-8. 1st in AFC South), who after spending the bulk of a decade mired in mediocrity, have not only returned to the realm of respectability, but have an opportunity to return to the playoffs for just the second time since 2007. For those of you who openly question the impact of a coach, then look no further than this franchise. From 2008 to 2021, Jacksonville posted the worst record in the league at 67-158 (.297), with just one winning campaign along the way, including a miserable 4-29 over the previous two seasons, resulting in back-to-back number one overall picks in the NFL Draft. Simply put, last year’s dumpster fire under the “guidance” of Urban Meyer was nothing short of embarrassing for everyone associated with the franchise, though that nadir thankfully led to the most inspired hire under (Owner) Shahid Khan: Doug Pederson. Indeed, the 54-year-old has been a GODSEND in Northern Florida, bringing a sense of professionalism that was absent throughout his predecessor’s brief tenure. Pederson (pictured below) posted a solid 42-37-1 record (.531) over five seasons with the Eagles, taking them to the playoffs on three occasions and delivering the franchise its first Lombardi Trophy thanks in large part to one of the most famous play calls in NFL history (Philly, Philly anyone?). Of course, he also dealt with quite a bit of controversy during in his time in Philadelphia, from ongoing QB controversies to a ravenous media and fan base, making this venture south to sleepy Jacksonville a proverbial walk in the park. Though his first campaign with the Jags began slowly, winning just two of his first eight games in charge, all of the hard work that he, his staff, and players have put in has finally paid off, with a 6-2 record over the last nine weeks, including a current four-game winning streak, their longest in five years. So, what in the name of Fred Taylor has changed for these cats, you ask? Well, Pederson has proven his ability to identify and develop talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football and after enjoying so many premium draft picks over the past few years there is plenty of talent for him to work with, none more so than (Sophomore Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence. The number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Lawrence (pictured below) was arguably the most hyped QB coming into the NFL since Andrew Luck, and after receiving a complete disservice under the tutelage of Meyer, has begun to THRIVE under Pederson. Year #2 has been far more promising than year #1, with the 23-year-old posting significant improvement across the board, completing 66.5% of his passes (up from 59.6%) for 243.8 yards per game (up from 214.2) on 6.45 net yards per attempt (up from 5.37) with twenty-four touchdowns (up from 12) in comparison to eight interceptions (down from a league-worst 17), while making good use of his athleticism with 294 rushing yards and another five touchdowns. During this four-game winning streak, Lawrence has been even better, completing an efficient 69.1% of his throws for an average of 266.8 yards on 7.65 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, while rushing for another eight-three yards and two more scores along the way. Ironically, his finest performance during this stretch came in the previous meeting with the Titans, who he completely eviscerated in a 36-22 victory, authoring a career-high 368 yards on a surgical 30-of-42 passing, with three touchdowns and another one rushing. Trailing 14-10 at the end of an eventful first quarter, it was all Jags the rest of the way, as Pederson’s troops ran off TWENTY-NINE unanswered points as Lawrence made play after play downfield. Now, he and his teammates stand just one game away from winning the division and hosting a playoff game, which was unfathomable for even the most faithful fans in Northern Florida. Even playing on a short week against an opponent that coming in on nine days rest with many starters not even participating in their last outing, the Jags are favored here as Pederson opted to rest many of his own starters in the second half of last weekend’s drubbing of the Texans, which we’re about to get into in three… two… one…
When we last saw the Jaguars, they extended their win streak to four games with a 31-3 thumping of the lowly Texans, who at this point are simply trying to secure the number one seed in the 2023 NFL Draft. Jacksonville posted 337 total yards on twenty first downs, rushing for 169 yards on twenty-nine carries with (Sophomore Tailback) Travis Etienne leading the way with 108 yards and a score on just nine carries. Lawrence completed an efficient 17-of-21 passes for 152 yards and an interception, in one half of action, while (veteran Backup) C.J. Beathard went 5-of-8 passing for twenty-nine yards and an interception of his own in the second half. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Caldwell’s unit relegated Houston to 277 total yards and thirteen first downs, including just eighty-four yards via the run, while sacking Davis Mills on two occasions, hitting him twelve times, and racking up a whopping sixteen pressures. (Sophomore Cornerback) Tyson Campbell returned a fumble caused by (emerging Defensive End) Josh Allen twelve yards to paydirt to blow the affair wide open early in the second quarter. Looking to tonight’s fateful showdown at TIAA Bank Stadium, the Jaguars are looking to turn the tide in what has been nothing short of a one-sided rivalry in recent years, with that aforementioned victory emphatically snapping a five-game losing streak to their division rivals. By and large, those affairs were rarely close, with the Jags losing by an average margin of 16.8 points! In three career meetings, Lawrence has completed 66.9% of his passes for 287.3 yards per game on 7.02 net yards per attempt with six total touchdowns and five interceptions. From a betting perspective, Jacksonville has covered the spread in four of their last five games overall, including three straight at home. Furthermore, they’re 5-01 against the spread in their last six games against AFC teams. However, this matchup figures to serve as a litmus test as to just how much they’ve matured under Pederson, for in this opportunity to clinch their first playoff appearance since 2017, they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as a home favorite, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, the Offensive Line has suffered its share of losses over the last month, though (veteran Guard) Brandon Scherff could return after missing time with abdominal and ankle maladies, while the Defense could receive a major boost in the return of (top overall pick) Travon Walker and (veteran Safety) Rayshawn Jenkins, with the former missing the last two games with an ailing ankle, while the latter has been nursing a sore shoulder.