8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Cowboys -2.5, Over/Under: 45.5
Super Wild Card Weekend comes to a close tonight with the weekend’s most star-studded matchup, as the Dallas Cowboys meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a crucial postseason affair that could very well shape the futures of both franchises for years to come. For the first time since 2007, the Cowboys (12-5, 2nd in NFC East) have advanced to the playoffs in back-to-back years, and as always, the pressure is reaching palpable levels in Big D. 24-10 over the last two regular seasons, (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy may be on the hottest seat of any coach in the tournament, for there is no franchise in the league with greater annual expectations than Dallas (no matter how exaggerated they may be), who have been starving for their first Lombardi Trophy in thirty-three years. Hell, they haven’t even advanced to an NFC Championship Game during that period of time, with a 4-11 playoff record since 1995 making (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones more and more desperate with each passing winter. This is where McCarthy was expected to make the difference; the 59-year-old owns a stellar 155-97-2 record (.614) over sixteen years coaching the Packers and Cowboys, along with a 10-9 mark in the postseason, including four trips to the NFC Title Game and a Super Bowl Championship in 2011. However, after a miserable 6-10 debut ravaged by injuries in 2020, his troops faltered down the stretch a year later before finding themselves in a terrible matchup against the surging 49ers, who made them pay for their mistakes in a 23-17 loss at home last January. With that said, this team isn’t without the requisite firepower to go on a lengthy postseason run, with six Pro-Bowlers on their roster, which doesn’t include (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott. If McCarthy is under pressure, then so is the 29-year-old, who two years after suffering a catastrophic knee injury and winning the longest (and certainly most-covered) contract standoff in NFL history, is still very much in search of his first marquee victory in the playoffs. A stellar 61-36 (.628) since he was drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft, Prescott (pictured below) is only 1-3 in the playoffs, despite his side oftentimes being the more talented team. A year after setting franchise records in a slew of categories, 2022 has been a mixed bag for Dak, who completed 66.2% of his passes for an average of 238.3 yards on 6.60 net yards per attempt and a QBR of 58.3 but threw fourteen fewer touchdowns and led the league with fifteen interceptions. He also missed five straight games following the season opener against Tampa Bay, in which he broke a bone in his right thumb on the crown of a defender’s helmet. One year into that $160 million contract extension, these are the kind of games that the franchise is paying for him to win, for at this stage he is no longer the young overachieving Quarterback who is grossly outperforming his contract playing largely complementary football to a dominant ground game. Thankfully, it’s not all on his shoulders, for the Defense is once again a major factor for the Cowboys. Retaining the services of (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn was a coup for Jones and McCarthy, for the 52-year-old has worked wonders with a unit that was statistically the worst in franchise history prior to his arrival. Quinn simplified the scheme and brought in quicker, faster personnel, while making use of arguably the deepest rotation along the Defensive Line to dramatic results; Dallas has led the NFL in takeaways in each of the last two seasons, amassing SIXTY-SEVEN during that period, including thirty-three this year with nine games featuring multiple turnovers. For the second season in a row, (Cornerback) Trevon Diggs and (Edge-Rusher) Micah Parsons are Pro-Bowlers, with the former snaring fourteen interceptions with thirty-four deflected passes since 2021, while the latter followed up his Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign with 13.5 sacks, fourteen tackles for loss, twenty-seven QB hits, forty-one pressures, and three forced and recovered fumbles apiece. However, as overwhelming as they can be on this side of the football, they can be susceptible to bigger, more physical opponents. As we touched upon, this group is predicated on speed and quickness to create havoc and rally to the football, but they have struggled against teams who can outmuscle them in the trenches; Quinn’s troops rank twenty-second against the run (129.3) on 4.4 yards per carry (17th Overall), and in their five losses they’ve shipped an average of 167.6 yards on 4.68 yards per rush. Again, we can’t stress enough just how important the outcome of this game is for Dallas, for another one-and-done effort could likely spell the end of McCarthy’s tenure in Northern Texas, which doesn’t sound all that far-fetched given that (former Saints Head Coach) Sean Payton is reportedly putting together a staff to make his return after a one-year hiatus. Payton worked for Jones as Assistant Head Coach under Bill Parcells from 2003 to 2005 and has always been on his radar. With multiple teams requesting interviews with the 59-year-old, a loss tonight could mean that the Cowboys position themselves to be next in line.
When we last saw the Cowboys, they laid a fairly big egg in a season finale in which there was still something to play for, falling 26-6 to their bitter rivals, the Commanders. Had Philadelphia and San Francisco both lost in their finales (which they didn’t), then Dallas could have claimed the number one overall seed in the NFC with a victory over Washington, though you wouldn’t know it after watching this one, folks. Indeed, last Sunday’s debacle was a calamity of errors, and it started early, as the visitors were forced to abort a bad snap on an attempted punt from their own 33-yard line, resulting in a short field for the hosts, who punched it in two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. After back-to-back three-and-outs, Prescott was the victim of a pick-6, leading to two more three-and-outs, before finally getting on the board with a 15-yard strike to (Sophomore Receiver) CeeDee Lamb just before halftime. Unfortunately, that would be it for the Cowboys, who finished the evening with a season-low 182 total yards of offense, including sixty-four rushing yards on twenty-seven carries, while Prescott completed just 14-of-37 passes for 128 yards and that touchdown and interception. McCarthy’s outfit managed a scant ten first downs and were a miserable 4-of-18 on third down, leading to a 1-3 showing on fourth down, which informs their meager time of possession (23:48). Defensively, they yielded a respectable 309 total yards, but 151 came on the ground, which as we stated earlier has become a problem in Northern Texas. Looking to tonight’s contest, these teams have met in each of the last two regular seasons, with both affairs kicking off the campaign with a Cowboys loss; the first was a wild 31-29 shootout in South Florida back in 2021, while last September’s 19-3 meeting in Arlington was every bit the defensive struggle that the final score would indicate. Over the course of his career, Prescott has split four meetings with the Buccaneers, completing an efficient 73.0% of his passes for an average of 244.3 yards on 6.27 net yards per attempt, with six total touchdowns in comparison to just two turnovers. From a betting perspective, Dallas is a middling 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games regardless of the venue, while covering the spread in six of their last ten games away from AT&T Stadium. The Bucs have been a problem for them of late, as McCarthy’s troops are 1-3 against the spread in their last five meetings, losing each of the last two encounters. Furthermore, they have posted an 0-4-1 record against the spread over their last five games contested on grass, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, this is a team that is largely healthy, though there are a few question marks heading into this showdown on the Gulf Coast. (Center) Tyler Biadasz is dealing with a high ankle sprain, which could create some concerns against Tampa’s hulking Defensive Line, while (Linebacker) Leighton Vander Esch is questionable with a sore shoulder.
Meanwhile, it may have been ugly, but the Buccaneers (8-9, 1st in NFC South) managed to secure a second consecutive division title, though how much that really matters at this point is really anyone’s guess. Simply put, the NFC South was laughably bad this season, with all four of its residents posting a losing record, as nearly all of them subsequently found themselves in playoff contention up until Christmas. So, what in the name of Lee Roy Selmon happened in Tampa Bay, you ask? Well, following their ousting in last January’s division round to the (eventual Super Bowl Champion) Rams, the franchise braced themselves for major transition, as (Head Coach) Bruce Arians stepped down to take an elevated role within the organization, while (seven-time Super Bowl Champion Quarterback) Tom Brady initially announced his retirement, ending the most celebrated career in NFL history. From there, the dominos began to fall, as (Coordinators) Byron Leftwich and Todd Bowles made their rounds interviewing for head coaching vacancies, while several high-profile veterans either retired (Rob Gronkowski) or parted ways in Free Agency. Seriously, we envisioned (General Manager) Jason Licht saying “Well, guys. It was fun while it lasted, but let’s all go our separate ways.” However, everything was thrown into chaos when Brady (pictured below), who had been retired for nearly six weeks, shocked the world and decided to return for a twenty-third season, sounding the alarms in South Florida to try to get the gang back together for one more run. As a result, Bowles was promoted to Head Coach, Leftwich remained to call offensive plays, while Licht tried to keep as many personnel from fleeing the Gulf Coast as possible. Unfortunately, this has led to a shell of the team that they were over the past two years, with a number of gaping holes proving to be detrimental to their success. In the past offseason, the Buccaneers parted ways with the likes of Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Ali Marpet, Alex Kappa, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ndamukong Suh, while losing (Center) Ryan Jensen and (Edge-Rusher) Shaq Barrett at various points of the campaign, leaving them without a number of proven performers at crucial positions. No more apparent has this been than in the trenches, where the run defense has fallen from third to fifteenth overall, while the Offensive Line has been a trainwreck, particularly along the interior. Granted, Tampa was far from a strong rushing team over the last two years, but when they needed to do it, they could outmuscle nearly any opponent. This year, they’ve been in shambles, ranking dead-last in the NFL in rushing attempts (22.7), yards (76.9), touchdowns (5), and yards per carry (3.4). Sure, they may have run for 152 yards in that season opener at Dallas, but since then they’ve only surpassed seventy-five yards on FIVE occasions. Needless to say, this is NOT the ideal approach when starting a 45-year-old Quarterback, leaving Brady to dink and dunk his way downfield. This used to be a big play attack, with the three-time MVP leading the league in passing yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43) a year ago, while posting 6.98 net yards per attempt. However, this season he has averaged 36.6 fewer yards per game and nearly a whole yard less in net yardage per pass, with just twenty-five touchdowns, his lowest output since he arrived in 2020. The big play has been missing throughout the season, due to the fact that opposing Defenses are rarely committing extra personnel to defend the line of scrimmage, while the losses of Jensen, Marpet, and Kappa has made it difficult for Brady to comfortably step up in the pocket and throw downfield. And that is how a team goes from averaging a healthy 30.1 points per game to 18.4 points in a year’s time, with Brady doing all that he can to simply get them into field goal range, where (veteran Kicker) Ryan Succop attempted eight more kicks, including twelve that were within 40-49 yards, which is indicative of where their drives are typically stalling out. Much like their opponent tonight, a loss in this Wild Card affair is likely to spell uncertainty for the franchise, as Brady’s contract will expire making him a free agent. While he’s expressed zero public interest in retiring, do the Buccaneers really want to retain his services at the age of forty-six? If he leaves after sparking the most successful era of football in Bucs history, how will Licht & Co pick up the pieces? What of Bowles and Leftwich? Will they embark on what is sure to be a sizeable rebuild a year later than they initially planned? One way or another, the winds of change are beginning to blow through the Gulf Coast…
When we last saw the Buccaneers, they fell to the Falcons in a 30-17 affair that meant very little to both sides. With their victory over the Panthers a week beforehand, Tampa Bay clinched their second consecutive NFC South title and the postseason berth that comes with it, meaning that Bowles & Co were simply playing out the proverbial string in an attempt to avoid a major injury. With that said, Brady did play the majority of the first half, completing 13-of-17 passes for eighty-four yards and an 8-yard strike to (veteran Tight End) Kyle Rudolph to cap the opening drive. Of course, the future Hall of Famer made some more history before he left the field of play, breaking his own record for most completions in a single season (490), passing the mark he set last season. (Backups) Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask got an opportunity to play afterward, with the former throwing a touchdown right before halftime. In the end, the visitors amassed just 222 total yards of offense on twelve first downs, possessing the football for just 25:11 of game time, while shipping 382 total yards to the hosts, who pummeled them on the ground to the tune of 174 yards on thirty-five carries. Looking to tonight’s affair at the Big Sombrero, the Bucs have defeated the Cowboys in each of their two meetings over the last two seasons. As we touched upon earlier, they kicked off their Lombardi reign with a thrilling 31-29 battle that saw the two sides combine for 882 total yards, while the most recent, a 19-3 snoozefest at AT&T Stadium back in early September, featured a total of five field goals before Brady found (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Mike Evans for a late score. And speaking of the GOAT, over the course of his illustrious career, he has never lost to the Cowboys in seven meetings, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 277.9 yards on 7.05 net yards per attempt, with sixteen total touchdowns in comparison to six turnovers. From a betting perspective, Tampa Bay has been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, authoring a miserable 4-12 record in this regard. Over the last ten games overall, they’re just 2-7 against the spread regardless of the venue, while matching that mark over their last ten outings at Raymond James Stadium. With that said, Bowles’ troops have thrived as an underdog, covering the spread in five consecutive playoff games in that role, including four out of five as an underdog between 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight. However, they are 0-7-1 against the spread in their last eight contests following a straight-up loss. On the injury front, the Bucs are far from healthy, with a number of starters on both sides of the football questionable to participate in this postseason affair. (Defensive Backs) Logan Ryan (knee), Mike Edwards (hamstring) and Carlton Davis (shoulder) are all in doubt, along with (massive Nose Tackle) Vita Vea has been nursing an ailing calf of late, which would create a rather large hole in the trenches. Furthermore, the status of (Receivers) Mike Evans (illness) and Russell Gage (back) is up in the air, while the Offensive Line, which as we’ve already stated has been a position of weakness throughout the campaign, could be without both (Left Tackle) Donovan Smith (foot) and (Guard) Robert Hainsey (hamstring). However, the aforementioned Jensen, who missed the entire regular season due to a knee injury suffered in Training Camp, has finally been designated to return from injured reserve, which could be a huge boost to this group.