6:30 PM EST, CBS – Line: Bengals -1.5, Over/Under: 46.5
The final leg of Championship Weekend kicks off this evening from Arrowhead Stadium, where the resilient Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game for a second consecutive season, with a spot in Super Bowl LVII up for grabs. Fresh off of securing their second consecutive division title, the Bengals (12-4, 1st in AFC North) are once again proving to be the team that is crashing the proverbial party, spoiling any opportunity at a Bills/Chiefs matchup in Atlanta thanks to their convincing victory over the former in last weekend’s 27-10 affair in snowy Orchard Park (we’ll dive much deeper into this one in a bit). Believe it or not, the reigning AFC Champions were relatively large underdogs heading into that matchup in Buffalo, thanks in large part to the current state of their Offensive Line. Now, we’ve covered this ad nauseum in this column, but the play of this group was arguably the only thing keeping them from hoisting their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history, as (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Joe Burrow was sacked a combined SEVENTY times during the regular season and playoffs last year. So, (Head Coach) Zac Taylor and (Lead Executive) Duke Tobin went about renovating this unit in the offseason, adding three new starters in the form of (veterans) Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins. Though they got off to a rough start this season, shipping thirteen sacks in the first two contests, they would eventually build the requisite chemistry needed to keep their Quarterback clean, with that quintet starting each of the next thirteen games. During that period, they permitted just twenty-eight sacks, equating to a sack percentage of 5.41%, which is far cry from the 8.9% that Burrow endured a year ago. Unfortunately, Collins would suffer tears to his ACL and MCL in a Week Sixteen win over the Patriots, with Cappa sustaining a knee injury of his own two weeks later in the season finale against the Ravens. Then, in their third meeting with Baltimore a week later, (Left Tackle) Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap in that 24-17 Wild Card triumph, setting the table for last weekend’s trip to Highmark Stadium. Needless to say, nearly everyone was writing off the Bengals, though as we’ll cover shortly, they had other ideas in mind. While playing without three of your five starting Linemen would make it very difficult to succeed in the playoffs for most teams, we should have considered that if there was ever a team that could indeed function at a high level in the face of said situation, it would be Cincinnati. After all, they did advance all the way to the Super Bowl despite those shortcomings in the trenches, right? So, how in the name of Anthony Munoz did they manage to do it, you ask? Well, there are two factors at play here, the first being Burrow (pictured below). The number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft saw his rookie campaign end prematurely due to tearing multiple ligaments in his knee, only to bounce back a year later and earn Comeback Player of the Year honors. After thriving on big plays downfield to the league’s most lethal Receiving Corps, Burrow became a more efficient, game manager in his third season, taking what Defenses gave him and not putting his team in poor situations. Furthermore, his movement within the pocket has been elite, for there are few passers who are able to evade the rush within such a tight space, while also rushing more often than in years past, amassing 257 yards and five touchdowns with his feet. There is also the fact that he has thrived in big games, owning a 5-1 record in the playoffs thus far, while also relishing the opportunity to match wits others at his position, such as Mahomes. Keep this in mind: Mahomes owns a ridiculous 73-19 record in the regular season and playoffs, though three of those defeats have come against Burrow, including last year’s AFC Championship Game, 27-24 in overtime. On the that day, the 26-year-old rallied his side back from an early 21-3 deficit, completing 23-of-38 passes for 250 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception along the way. Simply put, whether their season ends this weekend or in two weeks’ time, the Bengals will be focused on locking him down to a long-term extension this Spring. With that said, there is much more to these felines than their ice-cold QB, for their Defense has been criminally underrated over the last two seasons. (Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo has worked wonders with a unit that is light on big names but heavy on big plays, ranking sixth overall in points allowed (20.1), seventh against the run (106.6), ninth in yards per carry permitted (4.2), and eighth in takeaways (24). This unit is classic bend-but-don’t-break, relinquishing the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns in the league (17), while ranking ninth-best in red zone efficiency (52.0%) despite placing sixteenth overall in total defense (335.7). In those three previous meetings with the Chiefs, Cincy has outscored them 44-20 in the second half, with Anarumo making the proper adjustments as his troops have relinquished an average of 128.0 total yards and a 38.8% success rate on third down, while forcing three turnovers to boot. (Defensive Ends) Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, who have combined for 14.5 sacks and forty-six pressures, do a solid job of collapsing the pocket, with the latter’s watershed 98-yard fumble return for a score against the Ravens two weeks ago was good for the longest fumble recovery for a touchdown in playoff history.
When we last saw the Bengals, they pulled the largest upset of the playoffs to this point, stunning the Bills in that aforementioned 27-10 affair at Orchard Park last Sunday. Without three starting Offensive Linemen to protect him, many felt that Burrow would be unable to overcome one of the best Defenses in the league, though that certainly wasn’t the case in this one as the QB shredded Buffalo throughout what was all-in-all a very one-sided affair. Cincinnati meant business, folks, scoring touchdowns on each of their first two possessions of the afternoon, starting off with a six-play, 79-yard drive capped by a 28-yard strike to (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Ja’Maar Chase, before traveling another seventy-two yards downfield in ten plays, concluding with another Burrow touchdown pass, this time to (veteran Tight End) Hayden Hurst to take a 14-0 lead. After being held to two back-to-back three-and-outs, Buffalo finally got on the board with a touchdown of their own, though the visitors would strike right back with what appeared to initially be another touchdown courtesy of Chase, only to be overturned leading to a field goal from (Sophomore Kicker) Evan McPherson. The hosts added a field goal of their own after halftime, though Burrow & Co took all the air out of the stadium with a 12-play, 75-yard response that milked six minutes off the clock, ending with a short touchdown run by (veteran Tailback) Joe Mixon to make 24-10. Another field goal from McPherson extended their lead to seventeen points, which was more than enough for Anarumo’s Defense, who forced a turnover on downs in the red zone before intercepting Josh Allen on the final drive of the day. When it was all said and done, Taylor’s troops held significant advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (412 to 325), first downs (30 to 18), rushing yards (172 to 63), and time of possession (33:54). Even with a depleted Offensive Line, the fact that Bengals were able to churn out 172 rushing yards was telling, while Burrow was sacked just once. His postseason reputation continued to grow in this one, as he completed 23-of-36 passes for 242 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-one yards on six carries. Mixon added 105 yards and a score on twenty attempts, while Chase and Hurst hauled in five receptions apiece for a combined 120 yards and two touchdowns. The Defense held Allen to 265 yards and an interception on just 25-of-42 passing, while largely containing him on the ground, allowing twenty-six yards on eight carries and a score. Furthermore, they managed to limit the top third-down offense in the league (50.3%), to 4-of-12 (25.0%), forcing them to go for it on fourth down three times. Looking to this evening’s matchup, the Bengals have taken eight of the last ten meetings with the Chiefs dating back to 2006, including all three over the last two seasons. Burrow has completed an efficient 72.2% of his passes for an average of 327.3 yards on a very healthy 8.67 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns in comparison to just one interception, while rushing for another eighty-one yards and a score on twenty-one carries. From a betting perspective, Cincinnati has been one of the best teams in terms of covering the spread this season, posting a 13-5 record in that regard, including an 8-2 run over the last ten games overall. They matched that mark in their last ten games away from Southern Ohio, while covering the spread in ten consecutive games as an underdog, which is how they were initially positioned by the oddsmakers. However, they’re 7-3 against the number over their last ten outings as a favorite too and have covered four straight contests as a road favorite. Furthermore, if that line were to move back in favor of the Chiefs, consider the fact that these cats are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five postseason affairs as an underdog. On the injury front, we covered the situation along the Offensive Line, with Williams and Cappa both listed as questionable for this evening’s showdown at Arrowhead, though it would be quite the surprise to see the former active give the nature of his injury. (Backup Cornerback) Trey Flowers is also questionable after suffering a strained hamstring in last weekend’s triumph at Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the more that things change the more they stay the same for the Chiefs (14-3, 1st in AFC West), for after an offseason in which many were questioning their mortality, they have managed to keep on doing what they do best: win and look great doing it. For a seventh consecutive season, they can call themselves division champions, while earning their fourth number one seed over the last five years and advancing to a fifth AFC Championship Game in as many years. In the offseason, Kansas City fell victim to the plight of many powerhouses, as they parted ways with a number of playmakers on both sides of the football, none more so notable than (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, whom they traded to the Dolphins in exchange for a first, second, and fourth-round pick in last spring’s NFL Draft, along with another fourth and sixth in 2023. Of course, he was a tremendous weapon for (Head Coach) Andy Reid, with his blazing speed leading to 418 receptions, 6,037 yards, and fifty touchdowns from 2107 to 2020, all the while making an impact as a return man and in the run game to boot. This season, Hill earned another All-Pro nod, with career-highs in catches (119) and receiving yards (1,710) in Miami. So, how on earth did the Chiefs manage without him, you ask? Well, having (All-Pro Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes is a great place to start… After his rapid ascension to elite status, it was difficult to envision the 2018 MVP getting even better this season, particularly without his most dangerous vertical threat, but what we’ve seen from the 27-year-old is a growth and maturity that has been stunning, quite frankly. It’s been a case of no Hill, no problem for Mahomes (pictured below), who has adjusted his approach to complete a career-high 67.1% of his passes for a league-high and personal-best 5,250 yards on a very healthy 7.51 net yards per attempt, leading the NFL with FORTY-ONE touchdowns and a QBR of 77.7. Furthermore, his 5,608 total yards is the most in a single season from any player in the history of the league, positioning him as the rightful frontrunner for what would be his second MVP award. The key here has been an adjustment in approach; no longer simply trying to force the issue downfield, Mahomes has become much more patient this season in taking what opposing defenses are giving him, while making use of ALL of the weapons around him, which has in turn made this attack more balanced and unpredictable. S even different players have caught twenty or more passes this season, with three of them being Tight Ends and a Tailback, led by (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, who led the team in receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338), and touchdowns (12). (Veteran Wideouts) JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have brought different dynamics to the passing game, with the former settling into a more possession-oriented role, while the latter has been more of the vertical threat that Hill was. Furthermore, (veteran Tailback) Jerick McKinnon has really come on as a pass-catcher out of the Backfield, reeling in twenty-four receptions for eighty-five yards and a score over the final five games of the regular season. Add it all up, and you have a unit that led the NFL in points (29.2), total offense (424.7), first downs (408), passing offense (308.8), net yards per pass (7.51), and scoring percentage (46.4%), which isn’t bad without the services of a talent like the aforementioned Hill. However, as we covered earlier, they’ve certainly had their struggles with the Bengals, who have had their number of late. As explosive and prolific as this attack can be, they’re very much a rhythm-based unit, meaning that there are times when they simply lose that proverbial Midas touch. This is the best way to explain those three previous Cincinnati, whom they burned in the first half only to hit a wall in the second, with their two meetings from 2021 featuring blown leads of fourteen and eighteen points. Their most recent encounter, as 27-24 affair in Southern Ohio, saw Reid’s troops leading 17-10 early in the third quarter, only to get outscored 13-3 the rest of the way. While not as precipitous a drop-off as those other two affairs, Mahomes & Co once again went cold in the second half, following back-to-back touchdown drives with a lost fumble on just the second play of their third drive of the half, while the soon-to-be MVP was sacked on a key third-and-3 from the 33-yard line, leading to a missed 55-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker. Part of the issue is that (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has had a difficult time getting off the field in these second halves; Cincy has OWNED these matchups post intermission, running an average of 38.0 plays for 224.7 total yards encompassing roughly 18:20 of game time, opposed to 28.3 plays for 128.0 yards and about 12:33 of clock for the Chiefs. Needless to say, it’s hard to maintain a rhythm when you’re on the sidelines, which is a problem that this team has faced on more than one occasion. Of course, the bigger issue is that Mahomes’ ankle, which he sprained just before halftime of last weekend’s 27-20 victory over the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, which we’re about to dive deep into in three… two… one…
When we last saw the Chiefs, they advanced to their fifth consecutive AFC Championship Game on the strength of a 27-20 win over the Jaguars that was a lot closer than it had to be, though we doubt that that matters much to Reid & Co. Just as they did in their previous meeting this season, Kansas City started quickly on the offensive side of the things, with three consecutive drives of ten or more plays, culminating in a pair of touchdowns and a field goal, as Mahomes found Kelce for an 8-yard score to draw first blood before Butker drilled a 50-yard field goal to take a 10-7 lead. However, prior to that kick, Mahomes would go down in a mass of humanity, suffering a high ankle sprain in the process, as he was seen visibly in pain limping off the field. Thankfully, his longtime backup, Chade Henne, who hadn’t taken a snap all year long, came and put together a remarkable 98-yard drive, capped by a touchdown of his own to Kelce, giving the hosts a 17-7 lead before Jacksonville struck right back with a 41-yard field goal cut the deficit to ten points at halftime. Post intermission, Mahomes returned to the fray, though it would take a few possessions before he could regain his rhythm, teeing up Butker for another field goal before manufacturing another lengthy drive, this consisting of ten plays and seventy-five yards as found Valdes-Scantling for a 6-yard score. On the ensuing possession, Spagnuolo’s Defense finally became a factor, as (young Linebacker) Nick Bolton stripped (electric Returner) Jamal Agnew of the football, halting the Jags’ at the 6-yard line. After a quick three-and-out, the visitors wouldn’t hold onto it for very long, as Trevor Lawrence was intercepted by (Rookie Cornerback) Jaylen Watson on a shot pass to the left hashmark. The Jaguars would add a field goal to cut the deficit to one possession, tough the home side would recover the ensuing on-side kick, ending the affair. When it was all said and done, only outgained their opponent by thirteen yards, but were in command of the contest thanks to a +2 turnover differential leading to a time of possession of 35:01. Mahomes completed 22-of-30 passes for just 195 yards and those two touchdowns, but the passing game took a back seat to the ground game, racking up 144 yards on thirty attempts. (Rookie Tailback) Isiah Pacheco continued his late season ascension, piling up ninety-five yards on twelve attempts, while McKinnon added another twenty-five of his own. Kelce, who was targeted a whopping seventeen times, hauled in fourteen receptions for ninety-eight yards and touchdowns from both Quarterbacks. Defensively, Kansas City got after Lawrence, hitting him seven occasions and totaling pressures, with (Defensive Linemen) Frank Clark and Derrick Nnadi logging sacks. Looking to this evening’s battle with the Bengals, the Chiefs will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Over the course of his career, Mahomes is 1-3 in four meetings, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 278.8 yards on a healthy 7.56 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while suffering eight sacks and three fumbles. From a betting perspective, Kansas City has been the opposite of Cincinnati in terms of covering the spread this season, posting a dismal 6-12 record that is indicative of their history as being strong favorites more often than not. That reflects this recent run they’ve been on, for despite winning nine of their last ten games straight-up, they’ve only covered the spread in three of them. It’s been a similar story at home, where they’ve put together a miserable 1-8-1 record against the spread in their last ten contests at Arrowhead. Furthermore, they’ve now failed to cover the number against six straight opponents with a winning record, which at this point of the postseason is a given. On the injury front, all eyes will be on the health of Mahomes, with that high ankle sprain potentially compromising his mobility. The last time that the soon-to-be-named MVP was in the playoffs with a bum wheel, he was running for his life in Super Bowl LV and we all remember how that fateful affair turned out. Apart from Mahomes, there are a few other questionables to look out for, including (versatile Receiver) Mecole Hardman, (young Tight End) Jody Fortson, and (Tailback) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, with all three players eligible to return from injured reserve.