3:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Eagles -2.5, Over/Under: 46.0
Championship Sunday is here, folks, and the first of two matchups kicks off this afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers battle in the 2023 NFC Championship Game, a clash of the two most dominant teams of the season. This current incarnation of the 49ers (13-4, 1st in NFC West) may look awfully familiar to their predecessors but make no mistake this group couldn’t be more different than the one that advanced to the NFC Championship Game fishing last January. Sure, they’ve rolled into these playoffs like thunderstorm, winning each of their last twelve games, including last weekend’s 19-12 triumph over the Cowboys (more on that one in a bit), just as they did a year ago when they nine out of eleven to reach their second NFC Title Game in three years. However, that’s where the similarities are going to end, for this San Francisco side has been nothing short of a master of improvisation en route to claiming their second division title since 2019. Believe it or not, this season was supposed to be a transitional one of sorts for the Niners, who were expected to part ways with (longtime Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo, paving the way for (2021 third overall pick) Trey Lance to take over as the franchise QB. However, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch could find no takers for Garoppolo, whom they re-signed to a one-year deal to backup Lance, only for the Sophomore to suffer a broken leg early in the second game of the season, thrusting Jimmy G back into the fray. San Fran would go on to win seven of their next ten games, though the 31-year-old, who led them on their run to Super Bowl LIV, would see his season end prematurely due to a broken foot suffered early in a Week Thirteen tryst with the Dolphins. With both Lance and Garoppolo on the proverbial shelf for the rest of the campaign, many thought that the 49ers’ championship hopes were shattered, though Shanahan had a different outlook as he turned the reins over to (Rookie Quarterback) Brock Purdy, who has been nothing short of a revelation. Now, Purdy (pictured below) was selected with the 262nd overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft, making him this year’s Mr. Irrelevant, though the fact that the team hasn’t missed a single beat with him in the saddle has been all the more remarkable. Since taking over for Garoppolo, the 23-year-old has led San Francisco to eight consecutive victories, in which they’ve outscored and outgained the opposition by considerable margins of 15.3 points and 58.0 total yards. As for Purdy, he’s done more than simply manage the game during this stretch, completing an efficient 66.8%% of his attempts for an average of 231.5 yards on a healthy 7.92 net yards per attempt, with a staggering sixteen touchdowns in comparison to just three interceptions, while rushing for two more scores to boot. Furthermore, his passer rating through his first five starts (119.3) is the highest of any Quarterback in NFL history since Kurt Warner back in 1999, a season that ended in an MVP award and Lombardi Trophy for the Hall of Famer. So, what in the name of Joe Montana has gotten into this kid, you ask? Well, if there was ever a team tailormade for a rookie passer to succeed with, it is definitely these Niners. In addition to Shanahan being an elite playcaller and developer of Quarterbacks, this Offense is absolutely LOADED with talent. (All-Pro) Deebo Samuel remains a physical and versatile threat despite missing five games with a bulky knee, reeling in fifty-six passes for 632 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for 232 yards and another three scores. (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Christian McCaffrey is another versatile chess piece that Shanahan deploys in a variety of ways, with the 26-year-old amassing 1,210 yards from scrimmage and ten total touchdowns since arriving from Carolina via midseason trade. Furthermore, the Offensive Line has paved the way for one of the most imposing rushing attacks in the NFL, churning out 138.8 yards (8th Overall) on a healthy 4.7 yards per carry (10th Overall), which are figures that have ballooned to 165.3 and 5.1 since Purdy took over. Oh, and forgive us for taking so long to mention the most dominant Defense in the league; San Fran yielded the fewest points (16.3) and total yards (300.6), including a scant 77.7 yards versus the run (2nd Overall), with (Defensive Coordinator) DeMeco Ryans’ unit racking up the second-most takeaways (30). After putting his name on the map last season, Ryans is once again receiving a wealth of attention on the coaching market, with the 38-year-old all but assured to be leaving the Bay Area in a few weeks’ time. This unit is predicated on speed and quickness, though they are also physical, particularly in the trenches where (All-Pro Edge-Rusher) Nick Bosa looks like the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year honors; the three-time Pro-Bowler led the league with 18.5 sacks, along with forty-eight hits, nineteen tackles for loss, and fifty-six pressures. Furthermore, (All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner is constantly around the football, while (Safeties) Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson are bonafide ballhawks with a combined NINE interceptions. So, yeah, the table is set for Purdy, or just about any Quarterback to succeed in San Francisco, right? While there may still be doubters among the rest of the NFL, the Niners seem convinced as word out of their camp is that the man that they’re now dubbing as Mr. Relevant will be QB1 to begin the 2023 campaign (barring a spirited effort from Lance, of course).
When we last saw the 49ers, they overcame a tough, defensive struggle with the Cowboys to punch their ticket to a second consecutive NFC Championship Game and their third in the last four years. This renewal of hostilities between historic rivals lived up to the billing, folks, with the two titans trading blows throughout a very physical affair. After punting on their first two possessions, San Francisco found their rhythm with three consecutive scoring drives to close out the first half, though each of them ended in three points instead of seven, as (veteran Kicker) Robbie Gould drilled field goals of twenty-six, forty-seven, and fifty yards. During that period, that top-ranked Defense made their presence felt, picking off Dak Prescott twice, the first from his own 21-yard line to set up Gould’s first field goal, while the latter halted a Dallas drive deep in the red zone just before halftime. Following a quick three-and-out on their first drive post intermission, the Niners put together a pair of those vintage clock-draining drives that we’ve seen from them under Shanahan, with the first traveling ninety-one yards in six minutes, culminating in a short touchdown run up the middle from McCaffrey, while the latter chewed up nearly eight minutes over the course of thirteen plays, concluding with Gould’s fourth triple of the evening, making it a seven-point game with just over three minutes left to play. The two sides would exchange punts, with the visitors getting the ball for one final drive with forty-five seconds to work with, though San Fran’s Defense allowed them to march no further than midfield, as bizarre clock management once again struck the Cowboys in the postseason. In the end, the hosts amassed just 312 total yards on twenty-one first downs, rushing for 113 yards on thirty-two carries, and converting a healthy 7-of-14 third downs en route to possessing the pigskin for 32:53. Purdy did well in managing the game against the most opportunistic Defense in the league, completing 19-of-29 passes for 214 yards with no turnovers, suffering two sacks and four hits. (Young Tailback) Elijah Mitchell led the way with fifty-one yards on fourteen carries, while McCaffrey posted just fifty-seven yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches, though that rushing touchdown did give them the lead for good in the second half. (Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle made a number of huge plays in this one, reeling in all five of his targets for ninety-five yards, including a crucial 30-yard reception deep down the center of the field in which he bobbled the reception, eventually setting up McCaffrey’s go-ahead score. However, this matchup was all about Ryan’s Defense, which absolutely shut down one of the most explosive attacks in the NFL; San Francisco relegated the visiting side to just 282 total yards on fifteen first downs, including seventy-six of the rushing variety on twenty-two attempts, with just conversions on only five of their fifteen third downs. After eviscerating the Buccaneers last Monday Night, Prescott had one helluva tough day at the office, completing 23-of-37 passes for 206 yards, a touchdown and those two interceptions, which proved VERY costly in such a low-scoring game. Though they only sacked him once, the Niners were in his face throughout the day, with the aforementioned Warner showing out with a team-high nine tackles and the second of those picks. Looking ahead to this weekend’s showdown in Philly, the 49ers have taken three of their last five meetings between them, including their most recent, a narrow 17-11 slugfest earlier in the 2021 campaign. Garoppolo quarterbacked them on that day, and it would be an 11-yard strike to Jauan Jennings and a sneak into the end zone from the veteran QB that proved to be the difference, with Shanahan putting together an excellent gameplan in which his side dominated time of possession (34:54) despite being outgained 328-306. From a betting perspective, San Francisco has been MONEY against the spread during this run, covering all but one of their last ten games overall, regardless of the venue. However, this matchup places them in an uncommon position, that of an underdog, though that’s been good to them too; the Niners have covered the spread in eight of their last ten outings when getting points from the oddsmakers, while riding a five-game winning streak against the spread as a road dog, which is the case this afternoon. With that said, playing the role of underdog against Philadelphia hasn’t been nearly as kind to them, for they are just 1-4 over their last five such encounters. On the injury front, McCaffrey was seen nursing his calf muscle throughout the battle with the Cowboys, and though he is expected to start this weekend, his performance bears watching. (Defensive Linemen) Hassan Ridgeway and Charles Omenihu are both listed as questionable, with the former missing the last six weeks with a pectoral injury, while the latter could possibly be suspended for an off-field incident following last weekend’s contest. Furthermore, Mitchell has been dogged by injuries all season, and is listed as probable with a tender groin.
Meanwhile, much can change in a matter of weeks in the NFL, so we’ll forgive any of you who may have forgotten about the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East), who for the bulk of the regular season were easily the best team in the league. Indeed, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s troops carried over their late season momentum from 2021 into 2022, getting off to a torrid 13-1 start, their best in franchise history. During that period, they were eviscerating the opposition by an average of 11.7 points and 100.6 total yards per game, while enjoying a very healthy turnover differential of +12. The ground game, led by (third year Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, was churning out a whopping 158.6 yards per contest, while an aggressive Defense had racked up an NFL-best FIFTY-FIVE sacks with twenty-five takeaways, fifteen of which were interceptions. By and large, Hurts (pictured below) was playing at an MVP level, completing 67.3% of his passes for an average of 248.0 yards on a healthy 7.67 net yards per attempt with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, while rushing for another 53.4 yards per game and thirteen scores. The 24-year-old improved immensely as a passer this season, with much of his success building off his threat as a runner, which as we’ve seen over the course of his young career is nothing short of formidable. Sirianni and (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Steichen have done an excellent job of utilizing their Quarterback’s mobility on designed runs plays, forcing opposing Safeties to come down into the box, which has in turn opened up a wealth of space for the Receiving Corps to make plays. (General Manager) Howie Roseman has been on fire since last Spring, but by far and away the most notable move that the longtime executive did was trading for the services of (Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Brown, who was disenchanted with life in Tennessee, arriving during the 2022 NFL Draft in exchange for a first and third round pick. Bringing a sorely needed physical presence to the passing game, the 25-year-old immediately hit it off with Hurts, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including receptions (88), receiving yards (1,496), and touchdowns (11), with five 100-yard games in his first run in the City of Brotherly Love. However, the joyride got a little bumpy towards the end of the regular season, when Hurts suffered a shoulder injury in a 25-20 win at the Bears, sidelining him for the next two games, both of which were losses to the likes of the Cowboys (40-34) and the Saints (20-10). With (Backup Quarterback) Garnder Minshew at the controls, the Offense was far more turnover-prone with five during that period, including four in a Christmas Eve loss at Dallas. As you can imagine, balance was a major issue without Hurts on the field, with Sirianni’s troops churning out a meager 77.0 yards per game on the ground. Sure, Minshew can sling it all over the gridiron, but he’s nowhere near the running threat that Hurts is, which makes this high-powered attack far less formidable without him. Those two losses, coupled with the resurgence of San Francisco, forced Philadelphia into a clinching scenario in the regular season finale against the Giants; basically, if they won (which they did), then they would have secured the top seed in the NFC, while a loss would put them in peril as the Niners hammered the Cardinals. Sirianni played many of his starters, including Hurts in that one, which was a risky proposition given the health of his Quarterback’s shoulder, though as we saw in their third victory over New York this season, a 38-7 drubbing in last weekend’s Divisional Round (which we’ll unpack in just a bit), he appeared to be just fine. However, there is much more to this team than their young Quarterback and dynamic Offense, for they have been nearly as nasty on the defensive side of the ball as their opponent today; (Defensive Coordinator) Jonathan Gannon has helmed a deep unit that has been DOMINANT against the pass, relinquishing the fewest passing yards (179.8) and net yards per attempt (4.9), largely on the strength of a staggering SEVENTY sacks (1st Overall), which is by far and away the most in the league. How good is Philly’s pass-rush, you ask? Well, they were fifteen sacks better than the next closest team, which is the largest margin in NFL history since sacks became an official statistic back in 1982, with their total from this season ranking third all-time. Interestingly, they managed to do this despite blitzing just 22.1% of the time, which ranked 18th Overall, though enjoyed the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL, at 25.5%. Furthermore, they became the first team to ever field FOUR different players with ten or more sacks, including (Defensive Ends) Josh Sweat (11.0) and Brandon Graham (11.0), (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (11.0), and (Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick (16.0), which would be more than all but six teams this season. The aforementioned Purdy has been uncharacteristically cool in the pocket for a rookie, though if there is a team that can unsettle him, it’s likely to be these birds.
When we last saw the Eagles, they cruised to what would be the largest playoff victory in franchise history, a 38-7 thumping of the Giants in last weekend’s Divisional Round. It’s long been said that beating a team three times in a single season is a difficult proposition, though it was very clear that Philadelphia did not subscribe to such a notion, for this one was all but over about midway through the second quarter. Seriously, the distance between these two sides was glaring, as the birds scored touchdowns on four of their five possessions of the first half, heading into intermission with a commanding 28-0 advantage. Suffering no ill-effects from that shoulder injury, Hurts piloted the hosts seventy-five yards downfield on their opening drive, hitting (Tight End) Dallas Goedert for a 16-yard touchdown. After Gannon’s Defense sacked Daniel Jones on back-to-back-plays to force a turnover on downs, Hurts went back to work, driving Philly fifty-two yards with a 9-yard score to (Sophomore Receiver) DeVonta Smith capping another successful possession. This would trend would continue throughout the first half, and though New York got seven back in the second half, the home side would tack on ten more points in the final period to book passage to their first NFC Championship Game since 2018. In the end, the numbers said it all; Sirianni’s charges held significant advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (416 to 227), first down (26 to 13), rushing yards (268 to 118), third down (10-of-14 to 5-of-13), and time of possession (35:43). Again, Hurts looked healthy and efficient, completing 16-of-24 passes for 154 yards and those two touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-four and a score on nine carries. The Giants, who blitz more than any other team in the NFL, only sacked him once and struggled altogether to apply much heat on him given how balanced the gameplan was. (Tailbacks) Kenneth Gainwell (112), Miles Sanders (90), and Boston Scott (32) accounted for 234 rushing yards, with Gainwell and Scott jaunting into the end zone once apiece, while Goedert and Smith combined for 119 yards on eleven receptions and those two scores. Defensively, Philadelphia lit up Jones & Co, particularly as the game got out of hand, totaling five sacks, eight hits, and pressures. Looking ahead to this afternoon’s heavyweight contest against the 49ers, the road team has won each of the last two encounters, including last year’s aforementioned 17-11 slugfest at Lincoln Financial Field. In just the sixth start of his career, Hurts presented San Francisco with a wealth of problems with his legs, rushing for eighty-two yards and a touchdown on ten carries, while his team as a whole churned out 151 rushing yards on twenty-nine carries. However, moving the football through the air, particularly on third down was an issue, as ninety-one of his 190 passing yards came on one completion to (young Receiver) Quez Watkins, while going just 3-of-8 passing on third down. Gannon’s Defense also struggled to get a handle on the visitors in this one, failing to register a sack, with just two hits and pressures apiece as Shanahan’s balanced play calling kept them off-balance throughout the day. From a betting perspective, Philadelphia may be 7-3 straight-up over their last ten games overall, but their record against the spread is a different story (4-6), matching their mark as favorite. However, being at home has been good to them, covering the spread in all but three of their last ten contests at Lincoln Financial Field, while posting an identical record in their last ten encounters with San Francisco. With that said, January has seen them struggle to meet the expectations of the oddsmakers, with last weekend’s thumping of New York marking their first win against the spread in this particular month in five tries. On the injury front, the aforementioned Brown, who was rather quiet last Saturday Night, is listed as probable with a sore hip, while (veteran Cornerback) Avante Maddox will miss yet another game with that lingering toe sprain that has sidelined him for the last three games.