6:30 PM EST, FS1 – Line: Xavier -3.5, Over/Under: 152.5
First there was three and after tonight there may be just one left standing, as the seventeenth-ranked Providence Friars battle the sixteenth-ranked Xavier Musketeers in a battle for first place in the Big East tonight from Cintas Center in Cincinnati, Ohio. Currently locked within a three-way tie atop the conference, Providence (17-5, 9-2 in Big East) hopes that they’re mini-midseason swoon has come and gone, bouncing back from back-to-back defeats at Creighton (67-73) and (No. 20) Marquette (75-83) with three consecutive victories, including their most recent, a 70-65 triumph at Villanova. Despite trailing at halftime, the Friars put their proverbial foot on the gas in the second half, outscoring the Wildcats 42-34 over the final twenty minutes of action. The visitors shot a torrid 50.0% from the field, despite netting just 6-of-18 from beyond the arc (33.3%) and all eight of their attempts from the charity stripe. Efficiency was the theme for (Head Coach) Ed Cooley’s side, who assisted on nineteen of their twenty-eight field goals in comparison to committing just eight turnovers. Four different players scored in double-figures for Providence, led by (Senior Guard) Jared Bynum, who poured in nineteen points off the bench on a near-perfect 7-of-8 shooting (87.5%), along with five assists and a pair of steals. (Sophomore Forward) Bryce Hopkins (pictured above) had a rough shooting night (5-of-14), but filled up the stat sheet with thirteen points, nine rebounds, four assists, and a block, while (Senior Forward) Ed Croswell added another fourteen points on an efficient 7-of-9 shooting (77.8%), with a pair of rebounds and blocks apiece. Credit to Cooley’s Defense for relegating ‘Nova to just 42.9% shooting overall, including a miserable 6-of-23 from three (26.1%). We’ve seen in the past that the Wildcats can be very tough to handle when the money ball is falling, but this was clearly NOT one of those games. Now in his twelfth season in Providence, Cooley has really done a commendable job of turning this long dormant program into one of the steadiest in the country, with last season’s peak at No. 8 in the AP Poll matching their highest since the late 1970s. This year’s Friars possess a good mix of experience and youth, with Seniors such as Noah Locke and the aforementioned duo of Croswell and Bynum, buoying the likes of Hopkins and (Sophomore Guard) Devin Carter, who arrived via transfer from Kentucky and South Carolina respectively. Hopkins was a top-30 recruit though struggled to make an impact in Lexington, though has settled into a leading role under Cooley’s leadership, leading the team scoring (16.4) and rebounding (9.1), while Carter has been a nightmare on the defensive end thanks to his length, averaging 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.2 blocks despite standing just 6’-3″. In conference play, the Friars have been the top rebounding team in the Big East (36.2), equating to a +5.6 differential on the glass, while also muscling their way into the paint more than anyone in the league, which has coincidentally resulted in a wealth of free-throws. At 17.8 makes on 24.0 attempts, nobody in the conference has dealt in more volume from the stripe. Looking to tonight’s matchup with Xavier, these teams have split their twenty-two meetings right down the middle, though Providence has taken four of the last five encounters. Their two meetings from last season were decided by a combined ten points, with the most recent, a wild 99-92 affair that needed THREE overtimes to crown a winner. Bynum was the player of the game in that one, erupting for a career-high twenty-seven points off the bench, netting 10-of-21 attempts from the field (47.6%), including 5-of-10 from downtown (50.0%), along with six rebounds and four assists. From a betting perspective, Providence is 14-8 against the spread thus far this season, and 4-3 in that regard on the road, though are just 4-5 against the spread as when branded as an underdog by the oddsmakers, which is the case tonight. After this showdown at Cintas Center, the Friars enjoy a relatively comfortable schedule over the next few weeks, with three of their next four contests played at Amica Mutual Pavillion, before traveling to (No. 19) Connecticut on February 22nd.
Meanwhile, this is the point of the campaign where we’re going to see just how mature Xavier (17-5, 9-2 in Big East), for after suffering by far and away their biggest loss of the season they host one of the three teams that they share the league lead with. After getting off to a 15-3 start in the first year of (Head Coach) Sean Miller’s second stint with the program, the Musketeers were stunned by lowly DePaul (72-73), and though they escaped Storrs with an 82-79 victory over UConn a week later, they were effectively run off the floor in a 67-84 blowout at Creighton last Saturday. This one was never close, folks, as the visiting side fell victim to an offensive onslaught courtesy of the Blue Jays; It’s not often that you’re going to lose by seventeen points when you shoot 48.4% from the field and only commit a scant nine turnovers, though that was the case for Miller’s troops, who could do nothing to slow the hosts from shooting a blistering 56.7% from the floor, including an insane 26-of-39 from within the arc (66.7%) and 8-of-21 beyond it (38.1%). Seriously, Creighton had fewer misses than Xavier had makes, which is never a recipe for success in this sport, no matter what level we’re referring to. It was a very uneven performance from the visiting side, with (Senior Forward) Zach Freemantle and (Senior Guard) Adam Kunkel combining for thirty-one points on an efficient 14-of-20 shooting (70.0%), along with twelve rebounds and a pair of steals, but (Junior Guard) Colby Jones could muster just thirteen points on 6-of-14 shooting (42.8%), missing all three attempts from three, while (Senior Guard) Souley Boum (pictured above) experienced arguably the worst day of his collegiate career; the transfer from UTEP has been a hit in his first season in Cincinnati, averaging 16.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, while shooting 46.9% from the field and 44.2% from long-range, but last weekend he was relegated to a dreadful two points on 1-of-5 shooting (20.0%) despite logging thirty-six minutes of action. To put that into perspective, he had as many field goals as he had turnovers. It’ll be interesting to see how Miller approaches tonight’s showdown with Providence, in what is a matchup of two of the best offensive teams in the league. However, the Musketeers are one of the best offensive teams in the entire country, ranking seventh in scoring (83.2) on 50.2% shooting from the field (5th in nation), including 54.5% on two-point field goals (48th in nation) and 39.8% on three-pointers (5th in nation), all the while dishing out more assists (20.7) than anyone in the NCAA. This team thrives on ball-movement with four different playmakers handing out at least 2.5 dimes per game, with Boum and Jones serving as their creative engine with a combined 9.9 helpers. With that said, as effective as they can be offensively, this is NOT a good defensive team by any means of the imagination, ranking 331st in points allowed (75.9) and next-to-last in the Big East (79.3). During his previous stint with the program, Miller crafted Xavier into a staunch defensive unit, which is an identity that he carried with him to Arizona, but it is clear that he has a wealth of work to do in this department. Looking to tonight’s matchup with Providence, the Musketeers will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak to the Friars, with the aforementioned triumvirate of Jones, Freemantle, and Kunkel frothing at the mouth for some payback. those three were apart of each of those defeats, including last season’s epic 99-92 triple-overtime thriller. Kunkel led the way with twenty points off the bench, netting 4-of-10 treys (40.0%), while Jones did the bulk of his damage from the charity stripe, accounting for eight of his fourteen points to offset a disappointing 3-of-9 shooting performance (33.3%) from the field. Xavier shot just 41.9% overall on that day, with a wide gulf from three separating the two teams; the Musketeers could muster just 5-of-19 shooting (26.3%), while the Friars drilled 14-of-29 (48.3%), leading to a decisive 27-point differential in favor of the hosts. From a betting perspective, there a number of trends that currently favor Xavier, including the fact that they’ve covered the spread in each of their last four consecutive games at home versus teams with winning records, while matching that figure in that last four outings as a favorite between 0.5-6.5 points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, Miller is expected to be without the services of Freemantle for until early March due to a lingering foot issue, meaning that the Musketeers will be without a good deal of size for the foreseeable future; standing 6′-9″, 225 pounds, the Senior is the team’s second-leading scorer (15.2), while pacing them in rebounds (8.1). Needless to say, this is not time to fall into a rut for Miller & Co, who after this battle with Providence will travel to (No. 14) Marquette, whom they currently share the Big East lead with.