7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Cavaliers -5.5, Over/Under: 223.5
As the All-Star Break nears, a pair of contenders clash in Cleveland as the Cavaliers play host to the Memphis Grizzlies in what very well may end up as a dark horse preview of the Finals. In a wild Western Conference that has seen nearly two third of its residents separated by a mere three games, the Grizzlies (32-19, 2nd in West) are one of the very few to elevate themselves above the glut of hopefuls, sitting 2.5 games ahead of the Kings, while trailing the surging Nuggets by three contests for first place in the standings. Internal growth and development have been the overarching themes for Memphis over the last few seasons, as they improved by a staggering eighteen games from the 2020-2021 campaign to 2021-2022, though there are still times where they find themselves a victim of their own youth. Case in point: after getting off to a stellar 31-13 start, (Head Coach) Taylor Jenkins’ troops have dropped six of their last seven outings, which would mark their most notable slide in over a year. So, what in the name of Marc Gasol has happened in Graceland, you ask? Well, this is a team that has made their bones on the defensive end of the hardwood, making it all the more surprising that this is where they’ve been struggling; during this stretch, the Grizz have allowed 117.4 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field, including 39.0% from beyond the arc, where they’ve been outscored by an average of 15.0 points per night. Granted, they’ve typically made up for that by getting second-chance points due to their relentless work on the glass and by getting out in transition, and while they’ve certainly forced their share of turnovers (17.0), they’ve failed dominate the boards, outrebounding the opposition by a slim margin of 0.9. When we last saw them, they ran out of gas in the fourth quarter of a 122-112 loss at home to the Blazers on Tuesday night, in which the visitors outscored them 38-22 in the final period. Portland was on fire throughout the night, but really took it to another level in the fourth, netting a scorching 12-of-21 attempts from the field (57.1%), including 5-of-9 from downtown (55.6%), along with 9-of-10 from the charity stripe (90.0%), seven assists and zero turnovers. On the flipside, the hosts went cold on 9-of-23 shooting (39.1%), including 1-of-7 from three (14.3%), with (All-Star Point Guard) Ja Morant (pictured above) posting five of his thirty-two points in the quarter. The 23-year-old rose to stardom last season, with this season becoming more about how he can elevate the supporting cast around him, which he is proving with a career-high 8.3 assists and a usage rate of 34.9%. Looking to tonight’s trip to Cleveland, the Grizzlies have won four consecutive meetings with the Cavaliers, covering three of those encounters including each of their last two ventures to Northern Ohio, a 101-91 victory back in early November 2021, before their most recent, a narrow 110-106 affair last January. This is the second meeting between these sides over the last two weeks, with Morant & Co earning a tightly contested 115-114 victory at FedEx Forum back on January 18th. After drawing a foul with just over a minute left in the game, Morant sank two free-throws to draw Memphis within a point and following a pair of missed three-pointers from the Cavs, (veteran Center) Steven Adams secured an offensive rebound via a missed Morant layup, logging game-winning putback with sixteen seconds remaining on the clock. The difference in this contest was shot attempts, with the hosts attempting fifteen more field goals than the visitors, thanks in large part to forcing sixteen turnovers, which they manufactured into twenty-six points. Five different players scored in double-figures for the Grizz, led by (sharpshooting Guard) Desmond Bane, who totaled twenty-five points, knocking down 5-of-8 triples (62.5%) along the way. From a betting perspective, Taylor’s troops are just 4-6 against the spread over their last ten games, while posting a 1-4 record in that regard over their last five outings away from the Grindhouse. Against the Cavaliers, they’re 3-7 against the spread in their last ten meetings, though Thursdays have been good to them of late, with five consecutive ATS wins on this day of the week. On the injury front, Memphis is going through it at the moment, with the aforementioned Adams likely to be sidelined until early April due to a sprained PCL in his right knee, while (young Forward) Jaren Jackson Jr. is doubtful to play tonight thanks to soreness in his righty thigh.
Meanwhile, could it be that the Cavaliers (31-22, 5th in East) are in the midst of their own Grizzlies-like ascension? It sure appears like it, for after snapping a streak of three consecutive losing seasons, Cleveland has scaled the ladder in the stout Eastern Conference, sitting 6.5 games out of first place. So, what in the name of Craig Ehlo has gotten in these Cavs, you ask? Well, let’s start with last season, when the franchise continued a trend of strong drafts with the second overall pick in 2021, (stud Forward) Evan Mobley, cementing a defensive identity en route to improving by a whopping TWENTY-TWO games, qualifying for the play-in tournament, where they fell just short of advancing to the greater playoffs. Rather than simply sit on their hands, (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff and (General Manager) Koby Altman hit a home run in a huge trade for (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell (pictured above), who has brought some serious offensive firepower to Northern Ohio; the 26-year-old is averaging career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (27.6), field goal percentage (47.9%), three-point percentage (39.1%), two-point percentage (55.9%), effective field goal percentage (57.2%), and PER (22.9). Teaming with (fellow Guard) Darius Garland, he has given the Cavaliers one of the most productive Backcourts in the NBA, combining for 49.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 13.0 assists, 2.8 steals per game. However, even with these kind of weapons at their disposal, Bickerstaff’s troops remain a force on the defensive end of the hardwood, where they’ve been arguably the best in the league this season; Cleveland ranks first overall in points allowed (106.8) and assists permitted (22.6), while also sitting in the top-ten in a wealth of other categories. Though they benefit greatly from playing that the league’s slowest pace (95.5 possessions per 48 minutes), their size, length, and defensive versatility has been their greatest asset. Between (young Center) Jarrett Allen (6′-11″) and the aforementioned Mobley (7′-0″), this is one of the rare teams that can not only get away with playing two bigs on the floor at the same time but thrive in doing so. Thanks to their towering size and unreal wingspan, Allen and Mobley put up a proverbial wall around the rim, though are both athletic enough to step away from the paint and close out on shooters or even refrain from being a liability in the pick and roll. The tandem as accounted for 18.6 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, and 1.3 steals, while also putting in work on the offensive end of the court with 29.3 points and 4.3 assists. Unfortunately, this is still a young team, and like their opponent tonight, they still experience the pitfalls of that overall lack of experience, which has been evident in their recent run of form; the Cavaliers are just 6-8 over their last fourteen games, with a drop-off on defense being the primary culprit. During that period, they’ve allowed their opponents to shoot 48.2% from the field, including 39.5% from beyond the arc, while getting outrebounded (-1.9) along the way. When we last saw them, came up short in a narrow 100-97 defeat at home to the Heat, which is significant for the fact that they lead them by 1.5 games in the standings. Despite shooting 48.2% from the field and assisting thirty-two of their forty field goals, the hosts fell due to two reasons: first, the hosts couldn’t keep Miami off the charity stripe, where they were outscored by twelve points, while secondly, they were bested from downtown by another nine points. In a three-point game, the margins are always going to be tight. Five different players scored in double-figures, led by Mobley who totaled nineteen points along with seven rebounds, four assists, and a pair of blocks. Looking to tonight’s matchup with the Grizzlies, the Cavs are trying to snap a four-game losing streak in this series, though they came very close to doing so in that aforementioned encounter two weeks ago. Offensively, Cleveland was on fire, shooting a blistering 51.2% from the field, including 16-of-35 from three (45.7%), though missed SEVEN free-throws (and not to mntion all those turnovers), which once again proved to be the difference in such a close contest. However, the visitors had plenty of looks down the stretch, with Garland missing three different attempts in the final forty seconds despite multiple offensive rebounds from his teammates. Garland led the team with twenty-four points on 7-of-17 shooting (41.2%), including 5-of-11 on threes (), while dishing out fourteen assists. From a betting perspective, Bickerstaff & Co are 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games regardless of the venue, while matching that mark in their last ten outings at home. However, they have covered six straight games in which they’re coming off a straight-up loss, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, this team is largely healthy, though (veteran Guard) Caris LeVert is listed as questionable with a sore right hamstring.