7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 – Line: Purdue -8.5, Over/Under: 149.5
Another Big Ten battle is on tap tonight, this time with the top-ranked Purdue Boilermakers, who are looking to bounce back from suffering only their second loss of the season as they play host to the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are in turn plotting their climb up the conference ladder. One of six different teams tied for third place in the league, Iowa (15-8, 7-5 in Big Ten) hopes to have put their struggles behind them, winning back-to-back games after dropping consecutive outings two weeks ago. Winning on the road is an arduous task in the Big Ten, which is something that the Hawkeyes are acquainted with as they’ve won just one of their six trips away from Carver-Hawkeye arena thus far, including successive ventures to Columbus and East Lansing, the former ending in a 77-93 blowout and the latter concluding with a narrow 61-63 defeat. However, (Head Coach) Fran McCaffery’s troops have been much better at home (12-3), where they continued to flex in victories over the likes of Rutgers (93-82) and Illinois (81-79) last week. The key in both games was their ability to get to the charity stripe, which has been a common theme for them throughout the campaign; against the Scarlet Knights, they knocked down 29-of-34 free-throws (85.3%) and against the Fighting Illini, they were 26-of-30 (86.7%), altogether outscoring those opponents by a combined twenty-seven points, or in other words, a margin of 13.5 points per game. One of the most potent offensive teams in the country and the best in the Big Ten, Iowa leads the league in points (78.6) and field goal attempts (60.8), along with free-throws attempted (19.9), made (15.7), and percentage (78.7%). They’re a top-tier three-point shooting outfit to boot, ranking second in the conference in threes made (8.4) and attempted (22.9), while also exhibiting fluid ball-movement with a healthy 15.4 assists per game (2nd in Big Ten). This veteran group is led by (Junior Forward) Kris Murray (pictured above), who very well may be the most improved player in the league, going from 9.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game with one single start last season to 20.5 points on 50.2% shooting from the field, with 8.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in nineteen games, all of which have been starts. With all that said, the downside with the Hawkeyes is that as good as they’ve been offensively, they’ve been another story altogether on the defensive end of the hardwood, which explains their struggles on the road in conference play. Against Big Ten competition, they’ve allowed 76.6 points per game (14th in Big Ten) on 48.0% shooting from the field (14th in Big Ten), including 52.8% from within the arc (13th in Big Ten) and 37.8% beyond it (12th in Big Ten), while permitting 14.7 assists (13th in Big Ten), and getting outrebounded by a marginal 0.4 boards. During his thirteen years in Iowa City, McCaffery’s teams have rarely been known for their defensive aptitude, which has ultimately held them back in a league that has long been synonymous with staunch defensive play. In their six losses away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season, they’ve allowed 76.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the floor, including 40.3% from downtown, while pulling down 36.1 rebounds and handing out 14.6 assists in comparison to forcing just 10.5 turnovers. Looking forward to tonight’s showdown with Purdue, they’ll likely need a stronger defensive effort to slow down the Boilermakers, whom they’ve been bested by six times in their last eight meetings. However, their most recent encounter ended in a 75-66 upset at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the Big Ten Tournament, as McCaffrey’s kids applied a wealth of pressure with seventeen turnovers, which helped offset a poor shooting performance from the field (42.6%) and from three (28.6%). From a betting perspective, Iowa is both 7-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last ten games, regardless of the venue, while covering the number in six of their last ten trips away from Iowa City. They have performed well in this regard against stiffer competition, covering all but one of their last seven outings against opponents with a win percentage of .600 or better. However, they are only 2-10 over their last twelve road contests following a three-game homestand, which is the case tonight. With a win tonight, the Hawkeyes can close the gap between them and the Boilermakers, who currently lead them by 3.5 games in the standings, while finally breaking the glut of schools tied for third.
Meanwhile, Purdue (22-2, 11-2 in Big Ten) has been arguably the top team in the country for the bulk of this season, though we’re going to see how they respond to a bit of adversity as they look to bounce back from defeat for only the second time over the last three months. The Boilermakers suffered their first loss back on January 2nd in a narrow 64-65 affair against Rutgers, with (Head Coach) Matt Painter’s troops surviving a nip-and-tuck 71-69 affair at Ohio State that kickstarted a nine-game winning streak that finally came to an end last weekend in Bloomington. Anything can happen in rivalry games, and these kids found that out firsthand, as they fell behind early trailing by fifteen points heading into halftime. To their credit, the visitors rallied back in the second half, though could get no closer than five points in the 74-79 loss to the Hoosiers, who shot 52.6% from the field, including 26-of-47 from within the arc (55.3%) and 4-of-10 beyond it (40.0%). Make no mistake, it’s not like Purdue were a bunch of slouches in this one, as they netted 5.9% of their attempts from the floor, including 23-of-39 from within the arc (59.0%), while dominating the glass (36-21), particularly on the offensive end where they held a 15-8 advantage. However, were fairly cold from downtown, netting just 6-of-18 attempts (33.3%), while missing seven of their seventeen free-throws (58.8%), which obviously makes a difference in such a close game. With that said, the biggest problem for the Boilermakers was their inability to take care of the basketball, Painter’s unit committed SIXTEEN turnovers, or in other words, one more than they had assists (15). This is a team that thrives when they can control the tempo of the game and hammer their opponents in the paint, but when they’re giving away the rock wholesale and things turn into a track meet, they find themselves at a disadvantage. Of course, the defeat came despite a herculean performance from (Junior Center) Zach Edey, who had his way with Hoosiers, totaling THIRTY-THREE points and EIGHTEEN rebounds in the affair, netting a stellar 15-of-19 attempts along the way. He was also responsible for five of his team’s turnovers, as Indiana did a helluva job swarming him and playing passing lanes in the first half. Standing 7′-4″ and weighing in at roughly 285 pounds, the towering behemoth is a matchup nightmare for nearly every opponent, logging double-doubles in all but three of his twenty-two games this season, averaging 22.4 points on 62.7% shooting from the field, along with 13.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game. The big fella has faced off against Iowa on four occasions throughout his career, posting 6.7 points on 50.0% shooting, with 4.0 rebounds, and 0.2 blocks. Looking towards tonight’s matchup at Mackey Arena, Purdue is 69-57 all-time against Iowa, winning six of the last eight meetings, including each of the last three contested in West Lafayette. From a betting perspective, Painter’s outfit is 9-1 straight-up over their last ten games, while covering the spread in six of those outings. Oftentimes a large favorite at home, they’ve only covered the number in three of their last ten contests at Mackey Arena, while posting a 1-6 record against the spread in their last seven outings as a home favorite between 7.0-12.5 points, which is the case tonight. With a number one seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament well within their grasp, the Boilermakers can take another step towards cementing their place as the Big Ten Regular Season Champion with a win tonight, though there are still some tough games left on their schedule, including a rematch with Indiana in two weeks’ time.