6:30 PM EST, FOX – Line: Eagles -1.5, Over/Under: 50.5
It all comes down to this, ladies and gentlemen, as the latest edition of the Lombardi Trophy is set to be decided as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs clash in a heavyweight showdown in Super Bowl LVII from State Farm Field in Glendale, Arizona. For all intents and purposes, it appears that we have the two best teams in the National Football League competing for its greatest prize, for these teams share some outrageously similar statistics; both have scored a total of 546 points (including the playoffs), while sharing identical 16-3 records, with both arriving as their respective conference’s number one seed. In fact, this is the first time since 2018 that we have had two top seeds meet in a Super Bowl, which was coincidentally the last time that the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East) hoisted the Lombardi trophy. Representing the NFC this evening, Philadelphia was the league’s last remaining undefeated to fall and if not for suffering back-to-back losses in late December could have become only the third team in NFL history to win sixteen games in the regular season. After discovering their identity midway through the 2021 campaign, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s troops carried that momentum on over into this one, with (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman bolstering the roster with several key additions that have resulted into arguably the most formidable group in the league. Getting off to a torrid 13-1 start, they were eviscerating the opposition by an average of 11.7 points and 100.6 total yards per game, while enjoying a very healthy turnover differential of +12. The ground game, led by (third year Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, was churning out a whopping 158.6 yards per contest, while an aggressive Defense racked up an NFL-best FIFTY-FIVE sacks with twenty-five takeaways, fifteen of which were interceptions. By and large, Hurts (pictured below) was playing at an MVP level, completing 67.3% of his passes for an average of 248.0 yards on a healthy 7.67 net yards per attempt with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, while rushing for another 53.4 yards per game and thirteen scores. The 24-year-old improved immensely as a passer this season, with much of his success building off his threat as a runner, which as we’ve seen over the course of his young career is nothing short of formidable. Sirianni and (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Steichen have done an excellent job of utilizing their Quarterback’s mobility on designed runs plays, forcing opposing Safeties to come down into the box, which has in turn opened up a wealth of space for the Receiving Corps to make plays. This is where Roseman comes into play, for the GM has been on fire since last Spring, but by far and away the most notable move that the longtime executive did was trading for the services of (Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Brown, who was disenchanted with life in Tennessee, arriving during the 2022 NFL Draft in exchange for a first and third round pick. Bringing a sorely needed physical presence to the passing game, the 25-year-old immediately hit it off with Hurts, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including receptions (88), receiving yards (1,496), and touchdowns (11), with five 100-yard games in his first run in the City of Brotherly Love. However, the joyride got a little bumpy towards the end of the regular season, when Hurts suffered a shoulder injury in a 25-20 win at the Bears, sidelining him for the next two games, both of which were losses to the likes of the Cowboys (40-34) and the Saints (20-10). With (Backup Quarterback) Garnder Minshew at the controls, the Offense was far more turnover-prone with five during that period, including four in a Christmas Eve loss at Dallas. As you can imagine, balance was a major issue without Hurts on the field, with Sirianni’s troops churning out a meager 77.0 yards per game on the ground. Sure, Minshew can sling it all over the gridiron, but he’s nowhere near the running threat that Hurts is, which makes this high-powered attack far less formidable without him. However, there is much more to this team than their young Quarterback and dynamic Offense, for they have been nearly as nasty on the defensive side of the ball as their opponent today; (Defensive Coordinator) Jonathan Gannon has helmed a deep unit that has been DOMINANT against the pass, relinquishing the fewest passing yards (179.8) and net yards per attempt (4.9), largely on the strength of a staggering SEVENTY sacks (1st Overall), which is by far and away the most in the league and the third-most in NFL history. How good is Philly’s pass-rush, you ask? Well, they were fifteen sacks better than the next closest team, which is the largest margin in NFL history since sacks became an official statistic back in 1982, with their total from this season being the most since 1989. Interestingly, they managed to do this despite blitzing just 22.1% of the time, which ranked 18th Overall, though enjoyed the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL, at 25.5%. Furthermore, they became the first team to ever field FOUR different players with ten or more sacks, including (Defensive Ends) Josh Sweat (11.0) and Brandon Graham (11.0), (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (11.0), and (Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick (16.0), which would be more than all but six teams this season. Any gameplan against Patrick Mahomes (much more on him shortly) starts with applying pressure and if there is any unit that should be capable of rattling the 2022 MVP, it’s likely to be these birds of prey.
When we last saw the Eagles, they concluded their torrid run through the NFC with a 31-7 beatdown of the surging 49ers, which unfortunately turned into a very one-sided affair following a pivotal injury to San Francisco’s (Rookie Quarterback) Brock Purdy. Many predicted that Philadelphia’s relentless pass-rush would play a role in this matchup, though nobody could have predicted that it would result in Purdy being forced off the field with a torn UCL during his team’s first possession of the afternoon. However, that is precisely what happened, as the hosts slowly took control of the contest, posting 269 total yards on twenty-five first downs against the NFL’s top-ranked Defense, rushing for 148 yards and four touchdowns on forty-four carries. Hurts didn’t need to do much, completing 15-of-25 passes for just 121 yards, while rushing for another thirty-nine yards and a touchdown on eleven attempts, as (Tailbacks) Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell combined for another ninety yards and two scores on twenty-five rushes. Defensively, Philly shut down the Niners’ prolific attack, relegating them to a scant 164 yards on a mere eleven first downs, along with a combined 2-of-10 on third and fourth down, with three takeaways to boot. The pass-rush was active throughout this one, as the birds racked up three sacks, seven hits, and ten pressures, with Reddick’s hit on Purdy’s elbow proving to be the difference in the encounter. Looking ahead to this evening’s titanic showdown, the Eagles are looking to beat the Chiefs for the first time since 2009, when ironically Andy Reid (much more on him shortly), coached the birds. During this period, they have lost three consecutive meetings, while failing to cover the spread in any of them, including their most recent encounter, a 42-30 defeat at Lincoln Financial Field little over a year ago. In that affair, the two combatants combined for a whopping seventy-two points, 932 total yards, and sixty-one first downs, with the aforementioned Hurts throwing for a career-high 387 yards and three touchdowns on 32-of-48 passing. However, Gannon’s Defense was eviscerated to the tune of 471 total yards, including 200+ rushing and passing, while Kansas City was met with little resistance in converting 9-of-10 third downs. From a betting perspective, Philadelphia may have won eight of their last ten games straight-up, but they’ve only covered the spread in half of those outings, while matching both of those records over their last ten contests as a favorite. With that said, Sirianni’s outfit have covered the spread in five consecutive games when favored between 0.5-3.0 points, while also covering four straight affairs after passing for less than 150 yards in the previous game, with both trends being the case this evening. On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team as the only notable names on the injury list are (Guard) Land Don Dickerson, (Slot Defensive Back) Avonte Maddox, and (veteran Edge-Rusher) Robert Quinn, with all three players identified as probable with minor ailments. However, though he played reasonably well in both playoff games, the health of Hurts’ right should warrants attention, as the Quarterback only attempted forty-nine passes, with few of them traveling deep downfield. If the Eagles do indeed triumph, then they will be claiming their second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history and their first since 2017 after falling in their first two appearances (1980 and 2004).
Meanwhile, the more that things change the more they stay the same for the Chiefs (14-3, 1st in AFC West), for after an offseason in which many were questioning their mortality, they have managed to keep on doing what they do best: win and look great doing it. For a seventh consecutive season, they can call themselves division champions, while earning their fourth number one seed over the last five years and advancing to a third Super Bowl in the past four years. In the offseason, Kansas City fell victim to the plight of many powerhouses, as they parted ways with a number of playmakers on both sides of the football, none more so notable than (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, whom they traded to the Dolphins in exchange for a first, second, and fourth-round pick in last spring’s NFL Draft, along with another fourth and sixth in 2023. Of course, he was a tremendous weapon for (Head Coach) Andy Reid, with his blazing speed leading to 418 receptions, 6,037 yards, and fifty touchdowns from 2107 to 2020, all the while making an impact as a return man and in the run game to boot. This season, Hill earned another All-Pro nod, with career-highs in catches (119) and receiving yards (1,710) in Miami. So, how on earth did the Chiefs manage without him, you ask? Well, having (All-Pro Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes is a great place to start… After his rapid ascension to elite status, it was difficult to envision the newly-minted MVP getting even better this season, particularly without his most dangerous vertical threat, but what we’ve seen from the 27-year-old is a growth and maturity that has been stunning, quite frankly. It’s been a case of no Hill, no problem for Mahomes (pictured below), who has adjusted his approach to complete a career-high 67.1% of his passes for a league-high and personal-best 5,250 yards on a very healthy 7.51 net yards per attempt, leading the NFL with FORTY-ONE touchdowns and a QBR of 77.7. Furthermore, his 5,608 total yards is the most in a single season from any player in the history of the league, positioning him as the recipient of his second MVP award before the age of twenty-eight. The key here has been an adjustment in approach; no longer simply trying to force the issue downfield, Mahomes has become much more patient this season in taking what opposing defenses are giving him, while making use of ALL of the weapons around him, which has in turn made this attack more balanced and unpredictable. Seven different players have caught twenty or more passes this season, with three of them being Tight Ends and a Tailback, led by (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, who led the team in receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338), and touchdowns (12). (Veteran Wideouts) JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have brought different dynamics to the passing game, with the former settling into a more possession-oriented role, while the latter has been more of the vertical threat that Hill was. Furthermore, (veteran Tailback) Jerick McKinnon has really come on as a pass-catcher out of the Backfield, reeling in twenty-four receptions for eighty-five yards and a score over the final five games of the regular season. Add it all up, and you have a unit that led the NFL in points (29.2), total offense (424.7), first downs (408), passing offense (308.8), net yards per pass (7.51), and scoring percentage (46.4%), which isn’t bad without the services of a talent like the aforementioned Hill. However, as is the case with their opponent this evening, there is much more to these Chiefs than Mahomes and the NFL’s highest-scoring attack, for if there is one unit to watch in this matchup, then it is (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s unit, which has one helluva task ahead of them. On the season, Kansas City was far from great on this side of the football, ranking in the middle of the pack in several categories, including points allowed (21.7), total defense (328.1), pass defense (220.9), takeaways (20), and third down rate (38.3%). They also yielded the most passing touchdowns in the league (33), while ranking next-to-last in red zone defense (67.3%). However, this group permitted just 107.2 rushing yards per game (8th Overall), while finishing behind the Eagles for the second-most sacks (55), equating to a stellar pressure percentage of 24.9% (5th Overall). We’ve seen Coach Spags get creative in the Super Bowl (XLII, anyone?) and his troops’ ability to stuff the run on early downs and force the Eagles into more obvious passing situations will go a long way towards deciding the victor in this affair. (All-Pro Defensive Tackle) Chris Jones consistently disrupts the line of scrimmage and will be integral in pressuring Hurts, having matched a career-high with 15.5 sacks along with twenty-nine hits and forty-six pressures. Furthermore, (young Linebackers) Willie Gay Jr. and Nick Bolton are athletic enough to track the mobile Quarterback from sideline to sideline, though must refrain from being swallowed up at the second level by one of the most imposing Offensive Lines in the league. It’s imperative that the front four create negative plays in the backfield, for the Secondary, despite playing above and beyond their years in the AFC Championship game, are likely too green to deal with Philly’s deep receiving corps.
When we last saw the Chiefs, they earned a measure of revenge in besting the Bengals in a 23-20 slugfest, paying them back for last year’s defeat in the AFC Championship Game. The two Defenses came to play in this one, as the two sides could manage a combined two touchdowns with a pair of field goals apiece until midway through the third quarter, when the hosts put together an 11-play, 77-yard drive culminating in a 19-yard strike from Mahomes to Valdes-Scantling. However, after getting the ball back moments later, Mahomes gave it right back to Cincinnati after losing his grip on the pigskin dropping back to throw, allowing the visitors to tie the affair at 20-20 early in the fourth period. As both teams struggled to gain traction, Spagnuolo’s unit came up aces as (Rookie Cornerback) Joshua Williams intercepted Joe Burrow deep in KC territory to end one threat, while the aforementioned Jones sacked the Quarterback to end another, granting Mahomes one more opportunity to break the deadlock in regulation. Despite an ailing knee, the All-Pro Quarterback scrambled out of the pocket towards the sticks on a crucial third-and-four from midfield, and as he lumbered out of bounds he was knocked off his feet by Joseph Ossai, drawing a personal foul from the young defender in the process. From there, (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker stepped up to kick the game-winning 45-yard field goal, which promptly sailed right through the uprights, ending the affair altogether. When it was all said and done, the Chiefs amassed 357 total yards, 334 of which came courtesy of Mahomes, who completed 29-of-43 passes with two touchdowns. Valdes-Scantling was a difference-maker, with 116 yards and that score on six catches, while Kelce hauled in seven receptions for seventy-eight yards and a touchdown of his own. Defensively, Kansas City relegated Cincy to 309 total yards on eighteen first downs, with five sacks and two interceptions despite being forced to field a number of rookies in the Secondary. Looking ahead to this evening’s heavyweight battle, the Chiefs have had the Eagles number of late, winning and covering the spread in each of their last three meetings dating back to 2009. Granted, they’ve only met three times during that span, but as we saw when they met back in October of 2021, their Offense is indeed an advantage. As we stated earlier that 42-30 shootout featured very little defense from either side, as Reid’s troops stormed into his former residence and moved the ball at will through the air or on the ground. Mahomes completed an efficient 24-of-30 passes for 278 yards, FIVE touchdowns and one interception, though three of those scores went to the aforementioned Hill, who as we covered is no longer with the team. What should be noted though is how much success Kansas City had on the ground, rushing for 200 yards on thirty-two carries, which could foreshadow their approach in this evening’s encounter. From a betting perspective, the Chiefs have won all but one of their last ten games straight-up, though it has been a different story against the spread where they’ve posted a mediocre 3-7 record during that period. However, while it’s been rare to see them as an underdog, they’re 6-3-1 against the spread in their last ten outings getting points from the oddsmakers. With that said, this is also a team that is riding an 0-5 stretch against the spread following a cover. On the injury front, there are several names that need be watched heading into this affair, including the (Cornerback) L’Jarius Sneed (Concussion), (young Receiver) Kadarius Toney (Ankle), and the aforementioned Smith-Schuster (Knee), who all left that matchup with Cincinnati prematurely and listed as Questionable for this looming showdown in the desert. Of course, the elephant in the room is the health of Mahomes’ right ankle; he suffered a high ankle sprain late in the first half of the AFC Divisional Round battle with the Jaguars and was visibly affected by it over the last six quarters of play. Moving around in and out of the pocket is one of his more underrated yet valuable qualities, and when you consider the quality of the pass-rush that he is facing this evening, he likely won’t enjoy the comfort of a clean pocket for long. With a victory, the Chiefs will claim the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy and their second in the last four years, while Reid would become the third Head Coach in NFL history to defeat his former team in the Super Bowl.