7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: North Carolina -5.5, Over/Under: 155.5
A primetime ACC clash kicks off the week in college hoops as the fifteenth-ranked Miami Hurricanes travel to Chapel Hill to battle the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are looking for a strong finish to avoid missing out on the NCAA Tournament a year after falling short in the National Final. Gunning for their first ACC Championship since 2012-2013, Miami (19-5, 11-4 in ACC) have built upon the momentum of their Elite Eight run in last Spring’s NCAA Tournament, positioning themselves within striking distance of the league’s top spot. Now in his twelfth season in Coral Gables, (Head Coach) Jim Larranaga has done a commendable job of turning the Hurricanes into a consistently tough out in the Atlantic Coast Conference, taking them to the sweet Sixteen and beyond on three occasions. This season’s group has emerged as the most prolific attack in the ACC, leading it in points (79.1), field goal percentage (48.0%), and two-point percentage (54.0%), while ranking second in three-point percentage (37.1%) and third in free-throw percentage (78.2%). After suffering a narrow 68-71 defeat at Pittsburgh back on January 28th, the Canes have bounced back with four consecutive victories in which the offense has returned to its elite levels; Miami has averaged 86.0 points per game during this stretch on a healthy 51.0% shooting from the floor, including 40.0% from downtown and 83.1% from the charity stripe, while dishing out 17.7 assists opposed to 10.0 turnovers. In fact, their 20/6 assist/turnover ratio in last weekend’s 93-85 victory over Louisville was their best of the campaign, leading to their third time surpassing ninety points. Three different players scored in double-figures in that one, led by (Sophomore Guard) Nijel Pack (pictured above) with twenty-two points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%) and 4-of-9 from three (44.4%), while (Junior Guard) Isaiah Wong and (Sophomore Forward) Norchad Omier added twenty-one points apiece with the former logging four rebounds and four assists, as the latter led the way with seven boards. One of four starters to average 13.0 or more points this season, Pack has been a welcome addition to the Hurricanes after transferring from Kansas State, with the Indianapolis native proving to be a deadeye shooter from the perimeter, knocking down 40.8% of his attempts from long range. Looking to tonight’s affair, Miami’s 85-57 thumping of UNC last season snapped a five-game losing streak in the series, though they’ll be looking for their first victory in Chapel Hill since 2018. When they met last year, Larranaga’s troops shot 46.0% from the field, including a blistering 13-of-28 from beyond the arc (46.4%), while dishing out sixteen assists in comparison to committing only four turnovers. Three different players scored in double-figures, led by the aforementioned Wong with twenty-five points and eight rebounds, knocking down 5-of-8 threes (62.5%). From a betting perspective, the Hurricanes have both won and covered the spread in seven of their last ten games overall, while posting a 6-3-1 record against the spread over their last ten outings away from Coral Gables. Bettors have enjoyed them as an underdog, for they’ve covered seven of their last ten contests when getting points by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the Canes are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven road games as an underdog between 0.5-6.5 points, while also covering seventeen of their last twenty-one affairs following a loss against the spread, with both scenarios being the case tonight. This group is largely healthy, which bodes well for them as they continue their pursuit of first place in the ACC; coming into this showdown at the Dean Smith Center, Miami trails Virginia and Pittsburgh by just a half-game in the standings, after already besting the Cavaliers (66-64) back on December 20th, with an opportunity to avenge that previous defeat to the Panthers in three weeks’ time in the regular season finale.
Meanwhile, this season has proven difficult to follow its predecessor for North Carolina (16-9,8-6 in ACC), who have struggled to build upon the momentum from last year’s surprising run in the NCAA Tournament. In his first year after taking over for (longtime Head Coach) Roy Williams, Hubert Davis took the Tar Heels all the way to the National Championship Game despite being only an eighth seed, and very nearly cut down the nets if not for blowing a 15-point halftime lead against Kansas. This season has been an uneven one, for after entering the campaign as preseason number one in the country and winning their first five games, they inexplicably dropped their next four consecutive outings, dropping them from the polls altogether. 11-5 since that nadir, the Heels recently snapped out of a three-game skid in which the offense simply couldn’t find a groove; against the likes of Pittsburgh, Duke, and Wake Forest, they averaged only 68.6 points on a miserable 34.2% shooting from the field, including 22.2% from beyond the arc, while committing more turnovers (28) than assists (27). Fortunately, they appeared to have snapped out of that malaise in last weekend’s 91-71 victory over Clemson, in which they had no such problems filling up the proverbial basket, shooting 47.8% from the floor and matching a season-best with fifteen triples on thirty-three attempts (45.5%), with seventeen assists opposed to just seven turnovers. They outscored the Tigers by twenty-four points on threes, with the tandem of (Junior Guards) Caleb Love and R.J. Davis nailing a cumulative 10-of-19 attempts (52.6%). Love finished with a team-high twenty-three points, with Davis not behind with seventeen, while (Senior Forward) Armando Bacot (pictured above) adding nineteen points on 8-of-11 shooting (72.7%) along with eleven rebounds. That shooting performance was an outlier for a team that generally been rather poor in this regard, netting only 30.9% of their attempts in conference play, ranking dead-last in the conference. With that said, they’ve long been more successful in pushing the tempo and getting easy points around the rim and in transition; the ACC’s top rebounding side (34.9) lives off second-chance points, many of which come from the aforementioned Bacot, who is leading the league yet again in this department (11.2) 4.4 of the offensive variety. Though he could’ve entered the NBA Draft following his impressive showing in the NCAA Tournament, the Senior opted to return to Chapel Hill for one more run, averaging a career-best 17.6 points on 56.4% shooting, along with 1.6 assists and 1.0 block. Looking to tonight’s contest, this is the thirty-sixth all-time meeting between these two programs, with UNC leading the series 26-9 and winning eight of the last eleven matchups. However, as we stated earlier, last season’s ill-fated trip to Coral Gables saw Davis’ troops offer one of their most disappointing performances; the Tar Heels shot a miserable 33.8% from the field, including 6-of-30 from downtown (20.0%), while recording more turnovers (14) than assists (13). Bacot was the only player to reach double-figures in scoring for Carolina, with fifteen points and twelve rebounds despite sharing the team lead with four turnovers. From a betting perspective, the Heels are 6-4 straight-up over their last ten games overall, though are only 4-6 against the spread during that stretch. However, Chapel Hill has been good to them, as they’ve posted an 11-1 record at the Dean Dome, while covering the spread in six of their last ten contests at home. They are also 4-1 against the spread over their last five home outings against opponents with winning records. With that said, there is a particular trend currently working against the Tobacco Road residents, who have failed to cover four straight games following a victory against the spread. Like their opponent tonight, this is a largely healthy team, which could only be a boon to a group who really need to finish strong if they wish to return to remove themselves safely from the NCAA Tournament bubble; UNC sits at eighth in the ACC, with three games separating them from first place with trips to Raleigh and South Bend following this clash with the Canes.