7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Bucks -8.5, Over/Under: 225.5
Familiar foes cross paths once again tonight, as the shorthanded Boston Celtics look to maintain their narrow lead over the surging Milwaukee Bucks in this battle of the East’s top two teams from Fiserv Forum. Clinging to a 1.5-game lead in the standings are the Celtics (41-16, 1st in Eastern Conference), who must be elated that the All-Star Break is on the horizon, given that they have sustained a number of injuries over the last week that have trimmed down the rotation dramatically. After (former Head Coach) Ime Udoka was relieved of his duties due to an offseason scandal, Joe Mazzulla took over for his longtime friend and quite frankly hasn’t looked back. Any concerns over how the transition of power from Udoka to Mazzulla have been quelled completely, as Boston has become the first team in the NBA to forty wins, while ranking in the top-six in points scored (117.6) and allowed (111.4), not to mention number one overall in net rating (+6.2). Making things even more interesting is that this team has rarely been at full strength this season, with offseason additions such (veteran Forward) Danilo Gallinari and (two-way extraordinaire) Malcolm Brogdon along with (Defensive Standout) Robert Williams missing a wealth of games. We’ll get into the extent of their injury situation in a bit, though we’re going to show (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum a little love in the meantime. The lone constant for the Celtics thus far, Tatum (pictured above) has continued his ascent to the league’s elite, posting career-highs in several categories, including points (30.5), two-point percentage (54.4%), rebounds (8.6), assists (4.5), and PER (23.8). It’s hard to believe that this guy is still only twenty-four years old, for with each passing season he adds another dimension to his skillset making one of the most complete players in the Association. Unfortunately, the last time that we saw him on the hardwood he struggled mightily in a 119-109 victory over the Grizzlies, in which he could muster just sixteen points on a miserable 3-of-16 shooting (18.8%), including 1-of-8 from downtown (12.5%). With that said, he did find ways to affect the game in other manners, logging seven rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a pair of blocks. Boston was active at last week’s trade deadline, acquiring the services of (veteran Center) Mike Muscala in a deal with the Thunder in exchange for the seldom-used Justin Jackson and a 2023 second round pick. On his fifth different team since being drafted in 2013, the sharpshooting Muscala has fit into Mazzulla’s rotation rather quickly, averaging 11.0 points on 53.3% shooting and 46.2% from long range in just 16.0 minutes per game. Looking to tonight’s matchup between the top two teams in the East, the Celtics have taken five of the last seven meetings with the Bucks, including their most recent encounter, a 139-118 drubbing back on Christmas Day following their triumph in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last Summer. On a day in which both teams shot at least 50.0% from the field, Boston was on fire in knocking down 58.8% of their attempts overall and 19-of-38 from beyond the arc (48.7%), outscoring the visitors by eighteen points in that regard. Tatum erupted for a game-high for forty-one points on 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%), including 3-of-7 from three (442.9%) and a perfect 10-of-10 from the charity stripe (100.0%), along with seven rebounds and five assists. The four-time All-Star has averaged 21.9 points on 45.8% shooting, along with 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists in seventeen career regular season games against Milwaukee, while proving to be a major factor in besting them in last year’s Semifinals in which he logged 27.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.1 blocks per game. From a betting perspective, they have covered the spread in six of their last seven meetings with the deer, including each of the previous two at Fiserv Forum. Just 5-5 straight-up over their last ten games overall, they’ve covered the spread in just four of them along the way, though have posted a 6-3-1 mark against the spread in their last ten away from TD Garden. Furthermore, being an underdog, though rare these days, has been a boon to bettors, as these shamrocks have covered all but three of their last ten outings when getting points from the oddsmakers. On the injury front, the training room is really filling up for Mazzulla & Co, with the likes of the aforementioned Gallinari likely to miss the rest of the campaign with torn left ACL, while (reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart isn’t expected to return until after the All-Star Break thanks to a right ankle sprain. As for Brogdon, he is listed as day-to-day with a sore Achilles, while (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown, who suffered a facial fracture in last week’s 106-99 victory over the 76ers, is on a similar timetable to Smart, with a target date set for late February.
Meanwhile, you would be hard-pressed to find a hotter team in the NBA than the Bucks (39-17, 2nd in Eastern Conference) at the moment, who are hot on the heels of the Celtics in the eastern standings. Winners of seventeen of their last twenty-two games, including ten straight coming into tonight’s showdown in Milwaukee, the deer are rounding into shape at an advantageous time. Like their opponent tonight, (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer’s troops have sustained a number of injuries throughout the campaign that have hindered them from becoming the unit that they are rounding into now, what with the healthy return of (All-Star Swingman) Khris Middleton, who missed the first twenty games following offseason wrist surgery along with another eighteen contests due to soreness in his right knee. Though he was slow to get his legs back under him, the 31-year-old has started to look like his old self, averaging 18.6 points on 50.7% shooting, along with 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, even if the three-point stroke hasn’t returned quite yet (30.4%). Thankfully, there is this guy named Giannis Antetokounmpo commanding the spotlight in Milwaukee, with the two-time MVP continuing to dominate the Association. Don’t look now, but this may very well be the Greek Freak’s (pictured above) finest campaign, as he is currently posting career-bests in several categories, including points (32.4), free-throws made (8.5) and attempted (13.1), and usage rate (39.1%), with that latter figure leading the league. During this ten-game winning streak, which coincided with his own return from injury, he has been on another plane of reality, with a stat line of 37.3 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, along with 59.8% shooting from the field and an uncharacteristic 34.3% shooting from three along the way. Budenholzer and (General Manager) Jon Horst were hellbent on gifting him reinforcements at the trade deadline, which they did so in the form of (veteran Swingman) Jae Crowder, who arrived at the trade deadline via FIVE second round picks in a deal with the Nets. The oft-traveled Crowder, now on his ninth different team in eleven years, had been pursued by this organization for years, with his size, physicality, switchability, and shooting appearing to be a perfect fit for this rotation. Looking to tonight’s showdown with the East-leading Celtics, the Bucks will be looking for payback following last Summer’s 3-4 defeat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Milwaukee really missed the presence of the aforementioned Middleton in that series after the sharpshooter was lost for the rest of the playoffs during the previous round due to a sprained knee. Their first crack at Boston didn’t work out as planned, as that aforementioned 118-139 beatdown in Beantown on Christmas Day was NOT the gift that Budenholzer & Co wanted to receive. Even without Middleton, who was rehabbing from offseason wrist surgery, the visitors managed to shoot 50.0% from the field, but could do nothing to stymie the hosts’ onslaught. Believe it or not, the deer led 61-60 at halftime, only for the shamrocks to open up a 38-25 third period in which they netted a scintillating 12-of-20 shooting (60.0%), with the aforementioned Tatum torching them for twenty-seven points. Conversely, the visiting side could muster just 8-of-22 shooting themselves (36.4%). Antetokounmpo led the team with twenty-seven points on 9-of-22 shooting (40.9%), nine rebounds, and three assists, representing one of the more modest performances from the two-time MVP. In thirty career regular season meetings with the Celtics, the Greek Freak has averaged 21.9 points on 52.3% shooting along with 8.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists, while carrying his team with 33.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.1 blocks per game in last Summer’s Semifinals. From a betting perspective, the Bucks find themselves on a ten-game winning streak both straight-up, covering the spread in seven of those affairs, including each of their last three outings at Fiserv Forum. However, the bulk of this stretch has come against less-than-stellar competition, which is worth mentioning given that this team is also riding an 0-4 streak against the spread versus opponents with a win percentage above .600, which is obviously the case tonight. On the injury front, Milwaukee enters this affair the healthier side, though Middleton could very well be rested for this battle according to Budenholzer, while (versatile froward) Bobby Portis isn’t expected to return to the hardwood until after the All-Star Break rehabbing from a sprained right MCL. That sentiment also goes for Crowder, who will likely need some more time to get into proper basketball shape after effectively sitting out the entire campaign unhappy with his contract situation with the Phoenix Suns, though given how dogged the Bucks were in pursuing his services, he should fit into their system like a glove.