9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: TCU -2, Over/Under: 151.5
As March approaches, the most competitive league in the country continues its tales of twists and turns, as the third-ranked Kansas Jayhawks travel to Fort Worth to battle the twenty-fourth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs in a rematch of one of the biggest upsets of the campaign thus far. Indeed, January 21st was a significant day for both teams, particularly for Kansas (22-5, 10-4 in Big XII), who fell to the Frogs in a stunning 60-83 loss at Phog Allen Fieldhouse no less, marking the second-largest home defeat of the Bill Self era. That loss was also the second in a string of three defeats, which is coincidentally the longest such streak since Self took over back in 2003. So, what happened to the Jayhawks in that affair, you ask? Well, nothing went right for Self’s troops in this one, with the hosts shooting a miserable 39.0% from the field, including 16-of-38 from within the arc (42.1%) and 7-of-21 beyond it (33.3%), while committing more turnovers (17) than assists (15). Furthermore, the visitors torched the ‘Hawks, netting 54.4% shooting overall, the most relinquished this season by the reigning National Champions, including 8-of-15 from beyond the arc (53.3%). With that said, after reaching their nadir two days later in Waco, Kansas has managed to stop the bleeding and resuscitate themselves, winning six of their last seven outings and shooting right back up the polls as a result. During this span, the offense has rounded back into form, averaging 80.0 points per game on a healthy 48.4% shooting from the floor, including 34.1% from downtown and 74.4% from the charity stripe, while taking much better care of the basketball with 17.5 assists opposed to committing 11.2 turnovers. When we last saw them, the Jayhawks avenged the third of that trifecta of defeats, upending (No. 9) Baylor in a dramatic 87-71 victory that featured a furious second half rally. This one was a tale of two halves, folks, as KU trailed by as many as sixteen points in the first period thanks in large part to the disparity in shooting; the visitors shot a blistering 9-of-14 from three (64.2%) in the first half, while the hosts could muster only 1-of-11 from long-range themselves (9.0%). However, the Bears would not be able to sustain that form for long, as Self’s unit cut the deficit to just three points after little over two minutes of action in the second half, where they would go on to outscore their adversaries 55-26. In the end, four different players scored in double-figures for the Jayhawks, led by (Junior Forward) Jalen Wilson with twenty-one points on a poor 6-of-16 shooting (37.5%) and 0-of-5 on treys, though he more than made up for it with 9-of-10 shooting on free-throws (90.0%) along with a team-best thirteen rebounds. (Sophomore Forward) KJ Adams and (Freshman Guard) Grady Dick added seventeen and sixteen points respectively, while (Senior Guard) Dajuan Harris scored all fourteen of his points after halftime and finished with a game-high nine assists. The two biggest takeaways from this contest were how Kansas controlled the tempo by getting to the line, where they knocked down 23-of-27 free-throws (85.1%), outscoring the visiting side by fourteen points, while taking excellent care of the basketball with seventeen assists on twenty-nine field goals and committing a season-low four turnovers. That victory has launched them into a share of first place with Texas for the conference lead with four games to go before the Big XII Tournament commences in two weeks’ time, making that rematch with the sixth-ranked Longhorns in the regular season finale all the more significant as a number one seed in the greater NCAA Tournament could be on the line. Looking to tonight’s affair with TCU, Kansas has absolutely OWNED the all-time series (24-4), winning ten of the last twelve meetings, though their most recent trip to Fort Worth ended in defeat (64-74). In six career meetings, Wilson (pictured above) has averaged 12.8 points on 48.3% shooting from the field, along with 6.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists, including thirty points in their previous meeting this season. From a betting perspective, the Jayhawks have covered the spread in four of their last five games regardless of the venue, including each of their last three outings. However, it’s been a different story on the road, where they’ve covered six of their last ten games away from Allen Fieldhouse, though they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five ventures to Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena.
Meanwhile, when it’s all said and done, we may look back at that aforementioned 83-60 shellacking of the Jayhawks as the proverbial summit for TCU (18-9, 7-7 in Big XII), who given how they’ve performed since that stunning upset, appear to be a team that peaked a month ago. The Horned Frogs were 15-4 with that victory and responded with another blowout win three days later as they embarrassed Oklahoma in a 79-52 thumping in Fort Worth. (Head Coach) Jamie Dixon’s troops were 5-3 in the conference at that point and had risen to seventeenth in the polls, but since that point have struggled mightily to maintain the form that humbled the reigning National Champions in their own building. Beginning with a disappointing 74-81 overtime loss at Mississippi State, the Frogs would drop five of their next six contests thanks in large part to an inefficient attack that appeared to have fallen off a cliff. During this period, Dixon’s unit had averaged 68.5 points per game on 45.2% shooting, which is by no means terrible, but they happened to net just 25.2% of their attempts from beyond the arc and a miserable 65.0% from the charity stripe, where they have been outscored by a combined eighty-five points by their opponents, equating to a -14.1 differential per outing. Granted, this is a team that needs their defense to create opportunities on the offensive end of the hardwood, and that simply hasn’t been the case of late, with the opposition averaging 76.0 points on 47.9% shooting from the floor, including 34.6% from downtown, while owning an advantage on the glass (+2.6 rebounds) along the way. Fortunately, they managed to snap this losing skid with a convincing 100-75 victory over Oklahoma State, who were coincidentally one of the teams to best them during that stretch. Unlike that previous encounter in which they could muster just 41.9% shooting overall and a dreadful 6-of-22 from three (27.3%), while yielding 53.6% shooting from the field and 8-of-19 on treys (42.1%), Texas Christian placed the faithful at Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena into a frenzy with arguably their most impressive offensive performance of the campaign, cracking the century mark on season-highs in shooting from both the field (68.4%) and long-range (53.3%), which also matching a season-best with twenty-eight assists. Six different players scored in double-figures for the Horned Frogs, led by (Senior Forward) Emanuel Miller with eighteen points, five rebounds, and five assists, while (Senior Guard) Damian Baugh added sixteen points and eleven assists of his own. Furthermore, (Junior Guard) Mike Miles and (Senior Guard) Shahada Wells posted fifteen points apiece, with the former getting plenty of reps from the stripe (6-of-9), while the latter added four assists and a pair of steals off the bench. Miles (pictured above) and Wells were the stars of the previous encounter with Kansas, with the tandem combining for thirty-two points on 12-of-19 shooting (63.1%) and 5-of-7 on triples (71.4%), along with nine rebounds, six assists, and five steals, all but one of which coming courtesy of Shahada. Looking to tonight’s clash with the Jayhawks, TCU has struggled against them over the life of the series, winning just four times in twenty-eight meetings, but have managed to win two of the past four, all of which featuring an opponent ranked in the top-six of the AP Poll. The last time that they hosted them in Fort Worth, these amphibians upset their avian adversaries in a 74-64 affair last March in large part to a second half surge in which they outscored them 40-29. Just as they did in this season’s showdown in Lawrence, the Frogs got after them on the defensive end of the hardwood, relegating the visitors to just 37.3% shooting from the field, including 14-of-40 from within the arc (35.0%), while dominating them on the glass (41-31) and totaling seven blocks. Miles led the way with nineteen points, six assists, and a pair of steals, while Miller and Baugh chipped in with eleven points apiece, with the former posting seven rebounds and two blocks, while the latter logged four dimes as the school snapped a ten-game losing streak to their Big XII counterparts. From a betting perspective, TCU is just 1-4 straight-up and against the spread over their last five games regardless of the venue, though have covered the spread in six of their last ten games in Fort Worth. However, they have covered four consecutive contests as a home favorite when the line is between 0.5-6.5 points, which is indeed the case tonight. In terms of vying for the Big XII title, Dixon’s kids are three games behind KU for first place, which is a difficult gap to close with only four games left in the regular season. However, with opportunities against them and Texas remaining, it’s not impossible as they look to further cement their resume for the NCAA Tournament.