9:00 PM EST, ESPNU – Line: Houston -15, Over/Under: 144.5
Tonight, we’re headed to Clutch City, folks, as the top-ranked Houston Cougars look to avoid the fate of similar number ones in this American Athletic Conference showdown with the high-flying Tulane Green Wave, from Fertita Center in Houston, Texas. Before we get into the latest number one in the polls, we’re going to take a deep dive into Tulane (17-7, 10-3 in AAC), who are finally making the leap under (Head Coach) Ron Hunter. After successful spells with IUPUI and Georgia State, Hunter arrived in New Orleans to breathe life into a basketball program that has been dead in the water for the better part of two decades. Indeed, the Green Wave haven’t participated in the NCAA Tournament since 1995, back when they were a member of the now defunct Metropolitan Collegiate Athletic Conference, and since then have only enjoyed a total of seven winning seasons. Hunter inherited a 4-27 team back in 2019, and after three mediocre campaigns has built them into one of the most formidable offensive sides in the country; Tulane ranks eleventh overall in points (82.3), forty-eighth in field goal percentage (47.0%), thirty-first in two-point percentage (55.1%), fourth in free-throw percentage (79.8%), and twenty-second in assists (16.0). Furthermore, they lead the AAC in many of those categories, including points (85.4), two-point percentage (55.5%), free-throws made (248), and assists (16.6). At the forefront is one of the most productive backcourts in the country, with (Junior) Jaylen Forbes and (Sophomore) Jalen Cook lighting up the competition on the regular. An LSU transfer, Cook (pictured above) ranks second in the league in scoring (20.1) and third in assists (5.2), while Forbes, who is coincidentally Hunter’s first top-100 recruit and a former Alabama transfer, has put up 18.8 points per game and1.9 steals, while knocking down a healthy 37.3% of his treys. Winners of five straight games since suffering back-to-back losses in mid-January, the Wave have certainly been living dangerously through this stretch, with three of those outings being decided in overtime. Why so many close games, you ask? Well, as good as this group is offensively, they’ve left much to be desired on the defensive end of the hardwood, where they rank among the worst in the country. Granted, a lot of that has to do with the pace that they operate at, but they’ve been particularly woeful of late when it comes to defending the perimeter, where they’re opponents in those three affairs outscored them by a whopping FIFTY-SEVEN points, which equates to an average margin of 19.0 points per contest. When we last saw them, Hunter’s troops took care of their business in regulation, disposing of South Florida in a comfortable 84-66 victory over the weekend. Leading by only four points at halftime, the visitors put their collective foot on the gas and steamrolled the Bulls in the second half in which they hammered the hosts 49-35. The Wave shot a healthy 49.3% from the field, including 25-of-45 from within the arc (55.6%), while dishing out nineteen assists in comparison to committing just four turnovers. Cook continued to well, cook, erupting for a career-high thirty points on 11-of-20 shooting (55.0%) with five rebounds, seven assists, and four steals. This winning streak has seen the Louisiana native take his game to another level, averaging 24.8 points on 55.4% shooting, along with 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 3.0 steals per game. However, he and his teammates will be out for blood after getting embarrassed by Houston when they last met, a dreadful 60-80 loss in New Orleans that kicked off that aforementioned midseason losing streak. Against arguably the top defensive team in the nation, Hunter & Co. were taken out of their rhythm early, shooting just 40.0% from the floor, including 6-of-26 from downtown (23.1%), while getting bullied on the glass (24-34) and harassed into committing more turnovers (14) than assists (10) for the first time all season. Cook and Forbes combined for thirty-eight points but did so on a miserable 12-of-35 shooting overall (34.2%), including 6-of-19 from three (31.5%). The defeat marked Tulane’s tenth in a row in the all-time series, with their last victory occurring back in January of 2018, prior to Hunter’s arrival. During this losing streak to the Cougars, they have failed to score more than sixty-seven points in any encounter with the closest matchup being decided by eleven points. From a betting perspective, the Green Wave have covered the spread in five consecutive games overall, while also covering each of their last four outings following wins straight-up and against the spread, which is the case tonight. Trailing Houston by 2.5 games in the AAC standings, there is a chance that Tulane can apply some pressure on them before the regular season ends, for there are five more games awaiting them, including a pair of meeting with East Carolina, one of which is to be made up after its postponement due to the unfortunate death of the Pirates’ radio announcer, Jeff Charles.
Meanwhile, in a season in which we have seen each of the last five teams that have been crowned number one in the country lose not long after their coronation, Houston (25-2, 13-1 in AAC) hopes to avoid that trend, even if they were guilty of doing so on two occasions earlier in the campaign. Indeed, the Cougars entered the season third in the preseason rankings, only to ascend to number one in the land three weeks into their schedule. How did (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson’s troops respond, you ask? Well, after dismantling North Florida (76-42), they hosted (No. 8) Alabama in a matchup that we could very well see again come March, though they came up short, 65-71. Despite leading the Crimson Tide 31-27 at halftime, the home side went cold in the second half where they were ousted 44-34, with the visitors holding slight advantages in threes (+12) and free-throws (+8) ultimately making the difference. Fast forward six weeks and Houston find themselves atop the polls once again, though just as they did in early December, they failed to prove that they could remain there, this time falling to unranked Temple in a narrow 55-56 loss. This one featured another defensive struggle as both schools shot well below 35.0% from the field, with the difference again coming from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe, with the Cougars outscored by a combined fifteen points in those particular categories. This, of course, leads us to the overall question: sure, this team can defend better than anyone, but do they have enough offensive firepower to cut down the nets in a month’s time? Over the course of his near decade in Southern Texas, Sampson has turned this program into one of the most tenacious defensive teams in the country, with this season being no different as his kids relinquished the fewest points in the country at 55.7 points per game, including 61.2 within AAC play. On the opposite end of the hardwood, they’ve been far from poor, averaging 75.6 points (89th Overall) on a healthy 47.2% shooting from the field (44th Overall), including 54.3% from within the arc (51st Overall) and 35.4% beyond it (122nd Overall), with 12.7 offensive rebounds (18th Overall), and 14.8 assists (72nd Overall) opposed to committing just 9.7 turnovers (359th Overall). To put that in comparison with their opponent tonight, they’re 0.2% better from the field with one turnover fewer than Tulane, who we just waxed poetic about earlier in this post. And honestly, if you asked anyone from the green Wave whether or not the Cougars can put the rock through the nylon, they’d reply with a resounding “yes”. That’s because Houston has trounced Tulane in ten consecutive meetings, with each of the last two decided by twenty or more points. When they met earlier this season, an 80-60 route at Devlin Fieldhouse back in mid-January, the visitors ran the home side off their own floor, shooting a blistering 55.4% from the field, including 19-of-32 from within the arc (59.4%) and 12-of-24 beyond it (50.0%), while dishing out twenty assists. Four different players scored in double-figures for Sampson, led by (Senior Guard) Marcus Sasser with twenty-three points on 8-of-13 shooting (61.5%), with all but one of his field goals coming from downtown on a torrid 7-of-12 performance (58.3%), along with four rebounds and assists apiece. (Junior Forward) J’Wan Roberts and (Junior Guard) Jamal Shead added fifteen and fourteen points respectively, with the former adding six rebounds and a pair of blocks, while the latter led the team with seven dimes. After a bit if a dry spell following that blowout of Tulane, Sasser (pictured above) has begun to get hot down the stretch of his final season with the program, averaging 21.7 points on 51.4% shooting and 45.8% from three with 2.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals over the last three contests, all of which have been victories. Furthermore, the Senior has never lost in five meetings with the Wave, posting 14.8 points on 46.2% shooting, while netting a lethal 22-of-48 treys (45.8%). From a betting perspective, Houston hasn’t been a trusted against the spread as they have been straight-up, owning 16-11 record in regard to the former. They have failed to cover four consecutive outings at Fertitta Center in which they are facing an opponent with winning record above .600 on the road, while covering the spread in just one of their last five games at home. Owning a 2.5-lead over Tulane in the AAC standings, a win tonight will all but clinch a fourth conference title in five years for Houston, with their final three outings coming against the likes of East Carolina, Wichita State, and Memphis, the latter of which they just defeated over the weekend at home, 72-64. If they can avoid slipping up against an opponent that they’ve absolutely owned over the past five years, then the odds of Sampson & Co securing a number one seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament will be heavily in their favor.