10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Lakers -4.5, Over/Under: 238
With the All-Star Break now firmly in the rearview mirror, the time is NOW for teams to make their respective runs to the playoffs, as the Golden State Warriors battle the new-look Los Angeles Lakers in a matchup featuring two sides that we’ve all been waiting to flip the proverbial switch. Of course, that statement absolutely applies to the reigning NBA Champions, for the Warriors (29-29, 9th in Western Conference) have been a far cry from the unit that rampaged their way to a fourth Larry O’Brien Trophy in eight years. Granted, the West has seen a logjam between seeds three and thirteen this season, with Golden State just one of eleven different teams separated within a range of six games. While that lends itself to the theory that they’ll eventually get healthy and make a run out of this glut of contenders/pretenders, the reality is that they are running out of time to do so, making us all wonder if their inconsistencies can in fact be overcome in the time they have left. So, what in the name of Chris Mullin has happened to the Dubs, you ask? Well, it’s impossible to narrow it down to just one issue, for there have been several factors to their struggles, though the obvious one is that they are currently competing without their brightest star, (two-time MVP) Steph Curry, who is nursing multiple maladies to his left leg. The perennial All-NBA sharpshooter has missed twenty games thus far, including each of the last five heading into the All-Star Break, with his team suffering mightily without him; (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s charges have posted a 9-11 record without the nine-time All-Star thus far, which may come as rather surprising to some, which leads to another persistent problem. Even with Curry in the lineup, this team has been utterly abysmal on the road this season, owning a dreadful 7-22 record (.241) away from Chase Center. It’s really rather perplexing that a team that has been so damned good at home (22-7), has been the complete opposite on the road, but that has been the case throughout the campaign for the Warriors, who have failed to bring the same intensity to their opponent’s gym. So, what gives? Though they’ve been roughly as potent offensively in this regard, they’ve fallen apart on the defensive end of the hardwood, yielding 123.5 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field, including 40.1% from beyond the arc, along with 27.2 assists, while getting bested on the glass by a margin of 1.5 rebounds. Think about it, folks, they’re relinquishing nearly ten more points per game on the road than they are at home, which is huge margin to say the least. With that said, they haven’t been very good defensively this season, regardless of where the game is being played, which is proving to be their biggest downfall. When this team was competing in the Finals on a regular basis, they salivating to watch offensively, but they were also one of the best defensive team in the Association. During their six trips to the NBA Finals, they ranked no worse than THIRD in field goal percentage defense, no less than eleventh in defending the three, and sixth or better in defending shots within the arc. This season, they sit fifteenth in opponents’ field goal percentage (47.4%), eighteenth against three-pointers (36.3%), and fourteenth against twos (54.6%). Add it all up and you can see why they’ve given up the fourth-most points in the league (118.5). Age and attrition have affected Golden State greatly in this regard, for Kerr & Co simply don’t have the personnel to really cause problems on that end of the court anymore. Sure, (veteran Forward) Draymond Green is a seven-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection, but there is scarcely little to worry about aside from the 32-year-old. (Veteran Swingman) Andre Iguodala is 39-years of age and has played in just three games this year, while the likes of Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II were effectively salary cap casualties in the offseason. Furthermore, (All-Star Shooting Guard) Klay Thompson hasn’t been the same since missing over two years with multiple injuries, while (veteran Center) Kevon Looney is virtually the only legitimate size that the Dubs have in the frontcourt to combat larger opponents. (All-Star Swingman) Andrew Wiggins, who revitalized his career within Kerr’s system as a valuable defender able to switch on multiple positions, has missed twenty-one games of his own with various ailments, leaving the Coaching Staff with few solutions to what has ailed them. (General Manager) Bob Meyers attempted to add size and depth at the trade deadline but could only manage to regain the services of the aforementioned Payton in a four-team trade that returned the versatile perimeter defender, though it came at the expense of dumping the enigma that is (former 2nd overall pick) James Wiseman, while Payton himself put the whole exchange in peril after failing a physical. The 30-year-old will reportedly continue to rehab from a longstanding adductor injury and will be re-evaluated later this month. Looking to tonight’s matchup, this marks the third meeting with the Lakers thus far and stands as the second in a three-week span for the Warriors, who embarrassed them in a 123-109 blowout in the season opener, before narrowly meeting defeat in Los Angeles two weeks ago. In that more recent encounter, the Steph-less Dubs struggled to get much going offensively, shooting just 41.7% from the field, including a dismal 12-of-44 from three (27.3%), while getting killed on the glass (-9) and at the charity stripe (-10). (Young Guard) Jordan Poole led the way with twenty-nine points, five rebounds, six assists, a steal, and a pair of blocks, but Thompson (pictured above) had a hard night at the office, with fifteen points on just 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%) and 3-of-13 from long-range (23.1%). Over the course of his career, Thompson has faced the Lakers thirty-six times, averaging 20.3 points on 44.0% shooting overall and 39.5% from downtown, along with 3.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists. From a betting perspective, Golden State is 5-5 straight-up and 3-7 against the spread over their last ten games regardless of the venue, while failing to cover each of their last three outings away from Chase Center. They’ve split their last five games against the spread overall and at the Lakers, while covering the line in two of their last three in this matchup when getting points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games following a straight-up loss, though could benefit greatly from the break as they have covered all but one of their last six contests when coming off three or more days of rest, which is obviously the case tonight. On the injury front, Curry and Payton won’t be re-evaluated until next month, though there is a chance that we could see Wiggins make his return to the hardwood, for he is healthy and ready to go despite sitting out the last game before the break due to a personal issue.
Meanwhile, Muse’s Time is Running Out must be playing in the background, for now we’re on to the Lakers (27-32, 13th in Western Conference), who are the undisputed kings of the “it’s now or never” conversation. Indeed, after missing the playoffs altogether last season, Los Angeles entered the campaign with renewed hopes that they would round back into the form that earned the franchise its seventeenth Larry O’Brien Trophy three years ago, but that really hasn’t been the case, even with a new Coaching Staff headed by the respected Darvin Ham. That’s because the Lakeshow’s issues from a year ago had very little to do with coaching and just about everything to do with personnel and health, which have unfortunately proven to be the same problems a year later. Just as they did in 2021-2022, (four-time MVP) LeBron James and (All-Star Forward) Anthony Davis have missed considerable time with injuries, with the former sitting out fourteen games with ankle and foot maladies, while the latter was sidelined for twenty straight outings due to a lingering injury to his own foot. With that said, even when everyone was available, it wasn’t as if they were drawing comparisons to the club’s Showtime era, for the personnel that (General Manager) Rob Pelinka assembled around the two superstars continued to misfire because it was nothing short of a terrible fit. If it sounds like we’re referring to (erstwhile Guard) Russell Westbrook, that’s because we are. Since acquiring the aging nine-time All-Star (at James and Davis’ behest), the Lakers have been a trainwreck offensively, with the former MVP’s skillset proving to be a case of oil and water alongside the other two stars, while his bloated salary made it nigh impossible to add precious shooting and spacing via trade or free agency. Credit to Ham for convincing him to come off the bench in an attempt to stagger their minutes together, but even that was seen with limited results. And it’s with that said, that Pelinka got down to business at the Trade Deadline, finally parting ways with Westbrook and several other ill-fitting pieces in an attempt to remake the supporting cast and salvage what may be the last great season of the NBA’s newly minted all-time scoring leader. So, let’s take a moment to run down the list of transactions, shall we? First, Los Angeles acquired the services of (young Forward) Rui Hachimura in a deal with the Wizards in exchange for (veteran Guard) Kendrick Nunn and minor draft capital, adding an intriguing young piece for the future. Two weeks later, they made plenty of noise at the deadline, taking part in a pair of multi-team trades, acquiring the likes of (young Center) Mo Bamba, (versatile Forward) Jared Vanderbilt, (shooter/defender) Malik Beasley, and most notably (veteran Guard) D’Angelo Russell, who is back for his second tour of duty with the franchise that drafted him second overall back in 2015. In a matter of a few hours, the team got younger at multiple positions, while jettisoning Westbrook along with (veteran Guard) Patrick Beverley in exchange for several players whose skillsets fit much better around James and Davis, not to mention maintaining their flexibility in the future. Though they look much improved on paper, the question is how they’ll come together on the hardwood, though the initial impressions have been nothing short of positive. Since that Trade Deadline, the Lakers are 2-1, though in their first outing with all of their pieces together they really looked like they could be onto something. When last we saw them, James made his return to action to help spur a dominant second half performance to defeat the Pelicans in a 120-102 rout last Wednesday. Against a team that bested them eleven days prior, Los Angeles raced out to a 38-25 lead in the first quarter, though saw the visitors rally back to cut the deficit to four points at intermission. However, Ham’s troops OWNED the second half, outscoring New Orleans 65-51 the rest of the way, shooting a blistering 52.3% from the field and dishing out seventeen assists in comparison to committing just four turnovers. James (pictured above) and Davis combined for twenty-eight points on 12-of-18 shooting (66.6%), along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a pair of blocks, while Russell made an impression with eleven points on 2-of-5 shooting (40.0%) and three assists. In the end, all three players scored over twenty points, combining for seventy of their team’s total 120 points. Defensively, they relegated the visitors to 43.8% shooting, including 7-of-25 from three (28.0%), while forcing fifteen turnovers. Now with twenty-three games left in the regular season, the question has become if there is in fact enough time for this group to develop the requisite chemistry to go on a run to climb out of thirteenth in the West. Realistically, the Lakers need to win somewhere between fifteen to eighteen of these games in order to simply position themselves in the play-in tournament as the likes of Jazz and Blazers sit 1.5 games ahead of them, while there are two games that separate them from the Thunder, who currently own the last play-in spot. Looking to tonight’s matchup, James & Co have lost four of the last six meetings with the Warriors, though the 38-year-old didn’t participate in their most recent encounter, that aforementioned 109-103 victory two weeks ago due to a lingering foot malady. With that said, they didn’t need him, as this affair was their first with all these new pieces at their disposal; Russell totaled fifteen points, five rebounds, and six assists in his return to crypto.com Center, while Vanderbilt scored a dozen points off the bench, with Hachimura adding another sixteen points and seven boards. The most pleasant surprise on that night was arguably (veteran Point Guard) Dennis Schroder, who erupted for twenty-six points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), including 3-of-4 from downtown (75.0%), with 9-of-11 free-throws (81.8%) to boot. The German international is also in his second tour of duty with the franchise after they let him leave in free agency two summers ago. From a betting perspective, the Lakers are both 4-6 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten games overall, while posting an even 5-5 record against the spread in their last ten outings at home. Being a favorite hasn’t been great for them, as they’ve covered just four of their last ten contests when giving points, while going 1-4 against the line when following a straight-up or ATS win, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, the only notable figure to watch is James, who departed last weekend’s All-Star Game after suffering a minor contusion to his right hand as his attempted to block a shot at the rim. Granted, he’s gone on record stating he’ll be fine, and it was likely just a precaution, but given the time that he’s missed already, it certainly bears paying attention to.