7:00 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: 76ers -6, Over/Under: 217
The race for the postseason is heating up, particularly in the East where tonight we’re privy to a rematch of last Summer’s Conference Semifinals as the Miami Heat battle the Philadelphia 76ers from Wells Fargo Center in the City of Brotherly Love. Sixty-one games into the season and it appears that the Heat (32-29, 7th in Eastern Conference) are once again following the same pattern that they did two years ago following their surprise bubble run to the NBA Finals. In that case, a fatigued team struggled to reach those same heights partially due to a disturbingly quick turnaround from one campaign to the next leading to a plethora of injuries while COVID struck the rotation on several occasions. (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops would end up being swept in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of (eventual NBA Champion) Milwaukee but would use the full measure of the ensuing offseason to regroup and reload, leading to a number one seed and (very nearly) another trip to the Finals. However, this season has seen them stuck in another malaise as they have meandered around .500 for the better part of 60+ games, and trending downwards as losers of each of their last four outings. So, what in the name of Alonzo Mourning has happened on South Beach, you ask? Well, don’t get us wrong, but (All-Star Center) Bam Adebayo has been great this season in posting career-highs in scoring (21.6) and free-throw percentage (80.5%), while missing just five games to boot, though the same cannot be said about the likes of (fellow All-Star) Jimmy Butler, (reigning Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro and (veteran Point Guard) Kyle Lowry. All three of those figures have missed a least fourteen games due to a variety of maladies, with Lowry still dealing with a lingering knee issue that has kept him out of action for each of the last eight contests, including the first two after the All-Star Break. Even with that said, it’s not as if this particular quartet has separated themselves from the competition in considerable measure; logging 452:19 of game time thus far, the foursome of Adebayo, Butler, Herro, and Lowry are just +2.1 points per 100 possessions, while posting negative margins in threes (-2.0) and rebounds (-1.2), with the assist differential being even. All things considered, such small margins shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given that this is a team that frequently lives within that realm, largely due to their style of play. Make no mistake, the Heat can oftentimes be tough to watch offensively, operating at the fourth-slowest pace in the Association (96.8 possessions per 48 minutes), while ranking dead-last in scoring (108.1), next-to-last in field goal percentage (45.0%), twenty-eighth in three-point percentage (33.1%) despite jacking up the tenth-most treys (2,130), and sitting at twenty-third in assists (23.4). Indeed, this is a team that has thrived off the defensive pressure that they’re able to create, but with Butler (pictured above) and Lowry missing as much time as they have, they’ve been without two of their better perimeter/on ball defenders. This has been very noticeable during this losing streak, where their performance on the defensive end of the hardwood has left A LOT to be desired; Miami has allowed 116.0 points per game on a disappointing 50.1% shooting from the field, including a very generous 39.6% from downtown, where they’ve been outscored by an average of 12.9 points, while getting hammered on the glass (-4.5) and permitting 26.8 assists in comparison to forcing 12.3 turnovers. In their most recent showing, a 108-03 loss at the Hornets, Spoelstra’s charges spent the night digging themselves out of a sizable hole, with the hosts ousting them 29-16 in the first quarter. There are slow starts and then there is this: the visitors opened up shooting 5-of-24 from the field (20.8%), including 1-of-9 from three (11.1%), with more turnovers (5) than assists (3). Granted, they managed to climb back into the affair, largely on their ability to get to the charity stripe (28-of-34). Butler and Herro combined for sixty-one points on 16-of-31 shooting (51.6%), with the former doing the bulk of his dirt from the stripe netting 16-of-20 singles (80.0%). Adebayo filled up the stat sheet with fourteen points, six rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals, while the newly added (veteran Forward) Kevin Love added thirteen points and thirteen rebounds since signing as a free agent following his buyout from the Cavaliers. Looking to tonight’s battle with the Sixers, this will be the first of three meetings over the next five weeks, including the first of a home-and-home set. When they met in last Summer’s Eastern Semifinals, they disposed of Philadelphia in six games, with the home side taking every game until Miami eliminated them 99-90 at Wells Fargo. Defense was the key in this affair, as Butler & Co relegated Philly to just 97.5 points on 44.3% shooting from the field, including 33.7% from long-range, while outrebounding them (+6.3), and limiting them to just 19.5 assists and forcing 14.0 turnovers. With Lowry appearing in just two games due to a nagging hamstring injury, Butler carried the attack with 27.5 points per game on 51.3% shooting, 7.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.7 steals, while netting 36-of-44 free-throws (81.8%). From a betting perspective, the Heat have struggled in this regard covering the spread in just two of their last ten games regardless of the venue, while failing to do so in all but one of their last five ventures away from South Beach. 5-5 over their last ten games as an underdog, they have fared better against the 76ers in particular, covering the line in six of their last ten meetings. On the injury front, Lowry is expected to miss his ninth straight contest, with no timetable for his return at the moment, while Herro is listed as questionable due to bruised ribs, though Love is probable to play with a hyperextended left knee. Looking at the standings in the East, this current skid hasn’t done the Heat any favors, for they now sit 2.5 games behind the Knicks for sixth place, which affords them the luxury of escaping the play-in tournament.
Meanwhile, though they’re likely too far behind the Celtics with not enough games left to close the gap, it’s awfully hard not to like what we’ve seen out of the 76ers (39-20, 3rd in Eastern Conference), who are reaching the potential that they envisioned when they made last season’s biggest trade blockbuster. Indeed, after acquiring (three-time Scoring Champion) James Harden in a multi-team exchange last February and pairing him with (perennial MVP candidate) Joel Embiid, many felt that Philadelphia had formed the NBA’s next axis of power. Granted, as we covered earlier, they flamed out in their first postseason venture together, but after a full offseason together the pairing of Harden and Embiid is producing very positive results for (Head Coach) Doc Rivers & Co. 27-8 over their last thirty-five games, Philly has been one of the most prolific offensive teams during this run, averaging 117.7 points on a healthy 48.8% shooting from the field, including 38.8% from beyond the arc, while adding another 22.1 free-throws on 26.2 attempts, with 26.1 assists in comparison to committing just 12.3 turnovers. So, what in the name of Julius Erving has happened in the City of Brotherly Love, you ask? Well, Embiid and Harden both enjoying a long run of good health has been the biggest component of their success, with everyone else falling into their proper roles within the rotation. After posting career-highs in several categories last seasons, it’s hard to envision Embiid being even better this year, but he has; the seven-footer is averaging 33.1 points per game on 53.1% shooting from the floor, including 34.0% from three, along with 10.1 free-throws on 11.8 attempts (85.8%), 10.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 blocks. In Saturday night’s narrow 110-107 loss at home to Boston, the six-time All-Star erupted for forty-one points on 12-of-21 shooting (57.1%) and 17-of-18 from the charity stripe (94.4%), while adding a dozen rebounds and five assists, with his fateful game-tying three-pointer at the buzzer ultimately reversed following replay. As for Harden, the former MVP is in the best shape that he’s been in years, operating lock step and key with the big fella, enjoying more of a facilitator role that has suited him just fine; the 33-year-old is leading the Association with 10.7 assists per game, while still putting in 21.6 points on 45.2% shooting and 39.3% from long-range, which are all improvements over his first run with the franchise last Spring. Granted, there has been plenty of discussion in regard to his future with the club due to his looming free agency, but in the meantime it’s clear that we’re seeing the best of the bearded one this season. These upcoming meetings with the Heat will afford him an opportunity to exercise the demons of last Summer’s playoff defeat, for he was NOT very effective in that aforementioned six-game series. Indeed, Harden struggled mightily in this matchup, as Miami’s staunch defense zeroed in him from the opening tip, offering just 18.2 points on 40.5% shooting, 6.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, though committed 4.8 turnovers, and attempted just 4.5 free-throws. The only question at this point, is this: while the 76ers have established themselves as one of the true contenders in the league, do they have what it takes to topple either the Celtics or Bucks whom they are all but guaranteed to meet en route to any trip to the Finals? Thus far, they’re just 1-3 against those two opponents, including three defeats in as many tries against Boston, in which they’ve been held to 107.7 points on 46.4% shooting, including 34.8% from three, with just 18.3 assists. On the opposite end of the hardwood, the reigning East Champions have met little resistance from the Sixers, torching them for 114.0 points on 52.8% shooting 44.4% from downtown. In Saturday’s encounter, the visitors shot 50.0% overall and 16-of-36 from three (44.4%), with Philly only managing to stay in it thanks to their free-throw shooting (28-of-35), where they were +20 from the stripe. While Embiid dominated with forty-one, Harden struggled mightily, totaling twenty-one points but did so on just 5-of-16 shooting (31.3%). From a betting perspective, the 76ers are 7-3 both straight-up and against the spread over the last ten games regardless of the venue, while covering the line in six of their last ten outings at Wells Fargo. Being a favorite has been good to them, as they’ve won and covered five straight when giving up points. On the injury front, the only name of note is (Former Heat Center) Dewayne Dedmon, whom they acquired at the trade deadline, though won’t return to action until early March due to tightness in his left hip. Looking at the standings, the Sixers are closer to the fourth seed than they are at ascending to number one in the East, particularly after losing that last encounter with the Celtics, who they now trail by four whole games.