7:10 PM EST, CBS – Line: Kentucky -4, Over/Under: 145.5
The first round of the 2023 Men’s NCAA Tournament rages on as a potential upstart cross paths with one the true bluebloods of the event, as the eleventh-seeded Providence Friars battle the sixth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in this east regional opening round matchup from Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. Indeed, Providence (21-11, 13-7 in Big East) are underdogs in this matchup, mostly due to their history relative to that of their opponent, but when you take a deeper dive into this particular affair, there are a number of threads that could lead to what would numerically be a rather significant upset. Participating in the NCAA Tournament for the twenty-second time in school history, the Friars will be looking to build upon their surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen a year ago, what with a veteran-laden rotation comprised of upperclassmen, including four Seniors with a wealth of experience to rely upon. We’re calling it now: if (Head Coach) Ed Cooley leads his team to the second weekend of the big dance for a second consecutive Spring, then he’ll be the leading man at a bigger program come the Fall. The 53-year-old has long been one of the most underrated coaches in the country and what he has done at Providence is nothing to sneer at; the Rhode Island native returned to his hometown in 2011 and has guided the Friars to a solid .614-win percentage over the last twelve years, including seven trips to the NCAA Tournament and highlighted by a Big East Championship last season, along with that aforementioned jaunt to the Sweet Sixteen, which happened to be their longest dance in the tourney since reaching the Elite Eight back in 1997. Offensively, this group is one of the better in the tournament field, averaging 78.1 points per game (36th Overall) on 45.9% shooting from the floor (95th Overall), while doing an excellent job of controlling the tempo of the game by getting to the charity stripe, where they rank twentieth in free-throws made (16.4) and twenty-seventh in attempts (22.1). Ironically, at the forefront of their attack is (Sophomore Swingman) Bryce Hopkins, who faces the Wildcats one year after transferring away from Lexington. Ranked thirty-third among the Top-100 recruits in 2022, Hopkins (pictured above) struggled to make an impact in his lone campaign in the bluegrass state, averaging just 2.1 points per game on 42.9% shooting and 1.4 rebounds in 6.5 minutes of action over the course of twenty-eight games last season. Furthermore, he didn’t even feature in Kentucky’s stunning upset at the hands of Saint Peter’s last March (much more on that shortly), making his decision to enter the Transfer Portal all the more obvious before eventually finding a home in Providence. Simply put, the talented Forward has been the tip of Cooley’s proverbial spear, leading the Friars in scoring (16.1), free-throws (142), and rebounds (8.5), which very well may be the x-factor tonight. Hopkins & Co really make the most of their length, ranking twenty-sixth in the country in rebounding (38.3) and twenty-seventh of the offensive variety (12.3), all the while besting the opposition by a margin of 6.4 boards per outing. Furthermore, they’re also adept at contesting shots, logging an average of 4.6 blocks (33rd Overall). With all that said, this team hasn’t been in the strongest form of late, dropping four of their final five games, including each of their last three heading into the NCAA Tournament. So, what’s been the problem, you ask? Defense, plain and simple. Providence has allowed 80.8 points per game over this span on 52.3% shooting from the field and 46.2% from beyond the arc, where they have been outscored by a margin of 9.0 points, while also being outrebounded (-5.2) and permitting 17.0 assists. When we last saw them, they came crashing out of the Big East Tournament at the hands of Connecticut, who utterly throttled them in the first half (35-19) en route to shooting 52.8% overall and 13-of-30 from downtown, leading to a decisive 21-point differential. Hopkins and () Noah Locke were the lone Friars to score in double-figures, with the former totaling sixteen points, seven rebounds, and three assists, with the latter finishing with fourteen points, all but two coming on triples. Looking to this particular matchup with Kentucky, they have crossed paths just three times, including a home-and-home set back in the 2013-14 and 2014-2015; Providence has never beaten the Wildcats, with those two most recent defeats coming by fourteen or more points. From a betting perspective, Cooley’s kids are 1-4 both straight-up and against the spread over their last five games regardless of the venue, while owning a 1-4 record straight-up and a 2-3 mark against the spread over their last five outings away from Rhode Island. Furthermore, they are 5-8 against the number when branded as an underdog this season, which is the case tonight.
Meanwhile, looking to avoid a cataclysmic meltdown for a second consecutive year, Kentucky (21-11, 12-6 in SEC) comes into this NCAA Tournament with an awful lot to prove. You see, last March, the Wildcats crashed out of the big dance in spectacular fashion via a 79-85 upset at the hands of (fifteen seed) Saint Peter’s, which NOBODY saw coming. Hell, ESPN’s resident bracket guru, Joe Lunardi picked the ‘Cats to cut down the nets, but instead saw arguably the bluest of bluebloods head home with their tail between their legs. Needless to say, that affair was damaging in many ways; (Head Coach) John Calipari’s troops shot just 42.9% from the field, including 4-of-15 from beyond the arc (26.7%), and missed TWELVE of their thirty-five free-throws, as the Peacocks went on to shoot a blistering 50.9% from the floor en route to conquering them in overtime. That loss damaged the perception of the program and Calipari, who despite sixty-one trips to the big dance, including EIGHT National Championships of which Coach Cal was responsible for their last (2012), they’ve fallen off in the shifting landscape that is college athletics. How ironic is it that the poster boy of embracing the “one-and-done” philosophy has struggled to find his footing in this new era dominated by the Transfer Portal and NIL deals? Indeed, the 64-year-old led Kentucky to twenty-six or more wins, including to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond in eight of his first nine years in Lexington, posting a staggering .811-win percentage, while making the program the destination for elite talent looking to get to the NBA. However, since reaching the Elite Eight in 2019, the Wildcats have seen that percentage drop precipitously to .663, which has some thinking that the pressure is on Calipari to turn things around and do so in this tournament. Interestingly enough, this current crop of Wildcats isn’t your typical fare under Coach Cal’s watch; whereas past teams have been dominated by elite freshmen, this unit is headlined by several upperclassmen, including five seniors making up the bulk of the rotation. (Seniors) Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves, and Jacob Toppin are all making their final showing in Kentucky Blue, with each arriving to Lexington via transfer. Toppin plied his trade at Rhode Island before heading south after the pandemic, while Reeves enrolled last Spring following three years at Illinois State. However, of the triumvirate, Tshiebwe (pictured above) has been the biggest catch, with the native of the Congo routinely dominating the glass since his transfer from West Virginia two years ago. At 6’-9″, 260 pounds, he is an absolute bulldozer in the paint, leading the NCAA in rebounding in back-to-back seasons, while also ranking second this year in offensive boards (5.5). Oh, and he can score too, averaging 16.5 points on 56.3% shooting, with nineteen double doubles thus far in 2022-2023, including four straight heading into this tournament, a stretch in which he has averaged 18.5 points on 56.8% shooting, with 16.3 rebounds (7.8 offensive), 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks. With all that said, this incarnation of the Wildcats has been more Jekyll & Hyde than Calipari would prefer, with a pair of strong performances against Tennessee (63-56, 66-54) and a 76-67 victory over Texas A&M sullied by puzzling back-to-back losses to SEC bottom feeders such as Arkansas (73-88) and Georgia (68-75), along with a narrow 68-71 defeat at home to South Carolina. Oh, and did we fail to mention that Vanderbilt dumped them twice in ten days, including a 73-80 failure that sent them crashing out of the conference tournament? A lack of consistency is something that we generally attribute to younger teams, though as we stated earlier, this one is much more experienced than Calipari’s usual suspects. So, what gives? The issue is that these Wildcats aren’t as imposing on the defensive end of the hardwood as their predecessors and have developed a habit of letting their opponents stay in games. SEC opposition has shot 44.1% from the field against them, while netting 50.4% of their attempts within the arc, with both figures ranking in league play, which is a sign that they struggle to defend penetration. It remains to be seen which Kentucky we get tonight, folks, for while they have the talent to make a run in this tourney, they also have the propensity to fall flat on their faces and leave legions of us cursing their names as we burn our respective brackets. From a betting perspective, Kentucky is 15-16-1 against the spread this season, including 17-8 when favored by the oddsmakers. They are 5-4-1 in this regard over their last ten games regardless of the venue, while covering the line in six of their last ten trips away from Rupp Arena. With that said, these neutral site affairs haven’t been kind to them, for they have failed to cover six consecutive such games when favored, which is once again the case tonight.