6:30 PM EST, TBS – Line: Alabama -7, Over/Under: 137
The second weekend of the 2023 Men’s NCAA Tournament rages on as the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide battle the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs in what is sure to be a physical clash in this South Regional Semifinal from KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. With two of the tourney’s number-one seeds already eliminated before its second weekend, the other two remain on upset watch, which is the case in this particular matchup where San Diego State (29-6, 15-3 in MWC) presents a unique challenge at this stage of the competition. When you’re looking for dangerous mid-majors that could crash your brackets, there are generally a few traits that you look for, including the following: do they possess experience, depth, and a strong Backcourt? Well, all three apply to the Aztecs, who entered the tournament field as both Mountain West Regular Season and Tournament Champion, for the second time in three years. Indeed, (Head Coach) Brian Dutcher has kept the proverbial ball rolling after taking over for his longtime mentor, Steve Fisher, amassing a stellar 148-46 record (.763) over the last six seasons, with four NCAA Tournament appearances to his credit. The 63-year-old has arguably the deepest rotation in this field, going nine deep with all but two of them being Seniors (the other two are Juniors). Sure, (Senior Guard) Matt Bradley may be the only Aztec to score in double-figures this season (13.0), but there are another seven figures who average over 6.0 points per contest. Their depth also affords them the luxury of maintaining their relentless defensive pressure, with Dutcher employing wholesale substitutions as if he were a hockey manager. As a result, SDSU has been one of the toughest defensive units in the country, relinquishing just 63.1 points (25th Overall) on 41.1% shooting from the field (41st Overall), including a scant 28.8% from beyond the arc (6th Overall). Furthermore, there is plenty of length to be found in this group, particularly along the wings where they can clamp down on the opposition. When we last saw San Diego State, they made the most of their good fortune in drawing (13 Seed) Furman, fresh off their upstate of (Four Seed) Virginia, booking passage to their first Sweet Sixteen in ten years with a comfortable 75-52 victory. This one was as one-sided as it gets, folks, as the Aztecs dominated both ends of the hardwood, shooting a stellar 50.0% from the field, including 23-of-38 from within the arc (60.5%), assisting on a healthy seventeen of their twenty-nine field goals in comparison to committing ten turnovers. On the opposite end of the court, they relegated the Paladins to just 32.0% shooting overall, with their frequent attempts to cut into the growing deficit from downtown falling flat (6-of-26 3FG), getting manhandled on the glass (37-17), and dishing out a mere seven assists along the way. Four players scored in double-figures for Brian Dutcher’s side, led by (Junior Forward) Micah Parrish with a game-high sixteen points off the bench, while (Senior Guard) Darrion Trammel added thirteen points and half of his team’s six treys on a half-dozen attempts (50.0%). The aforementioned Bradley (pictured above) finished with just ten points on a disappointing 3-of-10 shooting (30.0%), but contributed in other areas with three rebounds, a pair of assists, and a steal and block apiece. From a betting perspective, San Diego State is 17-15-2 against the spread this season, while enjoying a 4-1 run of late that includes three consecutive covers. The Aztecs are 4-6 against the spread over their last ten trips away from Southern California, though have covered the number in four straight games contested at neutral sites. However, it’s been rare for them to branded as underdogs, having received points from the oddsmakers on just three occasions this year, in which they’ve owned a 1-2 record both straight-up and against the spread. Furthermore, they’ve come back down to Earth following blowout victories, failing to cover the line in four consecutive contests after a win of twenty or more points, which is the case tonight. With an upset of the Crimson Tide, Dutcher’s outfit will make school history in advancing to their first-ever Elite Eight after falling in the Regional Semifinals on two previous occasions.
Meanwhile, for the first time in the history of their program, Alabama (31-5, 15-2 in SEC) entered the NCAA Tournament as a number one seed, and from the looks of the bracket it appears that they could very well be on their way to making even more history. Indeed, chaos reigned supreme throughout the first weekend of the tourney, and the Crimson Tide are one of the few higher-seeds to remain unscathed, and thanks to the premature ousting of (2 Seed) Arizona and (3 Seed) Baylor, they have been presented with a less-than-arduous path to Houston next weekend. Of course, everyone thinks of the football program when this school is brought up, but their brothers on the hardwood have ascended to being a powerhouse in their own right, and it all comes down to recruiting. When the Tide hired (Head Coach) Nate Oats following his successful four-year tenure at Buffalo, they believed that they found one of the young up-and-comers in the coaching ranks, and for the most part he has already paid major dividends; after going 16-15 in his first campaign in Tuscaloosa, the 48-year-old has since posted a stellar 76-16 record (.826) over the last three years, including a pair of SEC Regular Season and Tournament Titles apiece. This season, his charges rose to number one in the AP Poll on two separate occasions thanks in large part to a slew of NBA talent; the rotation is comprised of seven RCSI Top-100 recruits, five of which were ranked in the top-30, led by the frontrunner for National Player of the Year, (Freshman Forward) Brandon Miller. Simply put, this kid is precisely the type of talent that the NBA is looking for: a tall, rangy, lithe wing who is adept at getting to the rim as he is shooting from the perimeter, while also possessing the length and physicality to lock up multiple positions. Unfortunately, an ongoing investigation into a weapon that Miller (pictured above) allegedly supplied an individual with that would later lead to a murder has hung over the Freshman like a black cloud, though it is impossible to ignore his production as arguably the best player in the country; Miller leads the Tide in scoring (19.1), three-pointers made (105) and percentage (39.5%), free-throws made (144) and attempted (168), as well as rebounds (8.2). When we last saw Alabama, they put together a dominant second half performance to reach the Sweet Sixteen, dumping (8 Seed) Maryland in a 73-51 thumping last Saturday night. Believe it or not, this one was very competitive in the first half, with the Crimson Tide overcoming a dreadfully slow start to eventually head into halftime with a 28-23 lead. We’d love to hear what Oats told his troops during intermission, but whatever buttons he managed to push clearly worked as denizens of the SEC erupted over the course of the final twenty minutes, outscoring the Terrapins 45-28. In all likelihood, his speech probably had something to do with being more aggressive, which they responded in kind; ‘Bama got after the Terps defensively, limiting them to just SIX assists and 18-of-46 shooting from within the arc (39.1%) and 1-of-8 beyond (12.5%), while getting to the charity stripe twenty-eight times, earning a +9 advantage along the way. They also secured the offensive glass with thirteen boards of that variety, which gave them plenty of second-chance opportunities, which is vital for a team shooting below 40.0% (39.7%). Though the aforementioned Miller was far from his best, totaling nineteen points on a poor 5-of-17 shooting (29.4%), the Frosh phenom made up for it at the line where he knocked down 7-of-8 free-throws (87.5%), while putting in major work on the boards with four offensive rebounds. (Senior Guard) Jahvon Quinerly picked up the scoring slack with a game-high twenty-two points on a blistering 9-of-14 shooting (64.3%) and 4-of-6 from three (66.7%), while (Sophomore Center) Charles Bediako posted his third double-double of the campaign, though second in the last three games with ten points and rebounds apiece. From a betting perspective, Alabama is a solid 20-15-1 against the spread this season, while enjoying a 4-1 run of late that includes two covers in their last three outings. With that said, the road hasn’t been very kind to them in this regard, as they’ve failed to cover the number in four of their last five trips away from Tuscaloosa. Though they’ve covered four of their past five contests when favored by the oddsmakers, laying points has NOT been a good thing for them in the NCAA Tournament, with the Crimson Tide covering only two of their last ten tourney affairs as favorite, which is the case tonight. While it’s fun to compare the Tide’s basketball program to their big brothers on the gridiron, they are presented with the opportunity to do something that they’ve only done once before: reach the Elite Eight. ‘Bama has appeared in ten regional semifinals, but the only time they’ve marched any further was in 2004. Then again, this season has been a campaign of firsts for the program, who after being ranked first in the country and earning a number one seed have been presented with a clear path to next weekend’s Final Four, no disrespect to Princeton or Creighton.