5:05 PM EST, CBS – Line: Texas -4, Over/Under: 149.5
The last ticket for next weekend’s Final Four is to be punched this evening, as the fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes look to make school history against the second-seeded Texas Longhorns, who in turn have their eyes set upon returning to the Lone Star State with games to play, in this Midwest Regional Final from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. As we’ve seen year after year, some coaches just get March, and (Head Coach) Jim Larranaga is one of those men, as he has led Miami (28-7, 15-5 in ACC) to a second consecutive Elite Eight appearance. Of course, Larranaga rose to prominence back in 2006 when he guided George Mason to one of the most celebrated Cinderella runs in the history of the NCAA Tournament, knocking off THREE bluebloods, including Michigan State, North Carolina, and (top overall seed) Connecticut. With his name cemented in the memory of the national consciousness, the Bronx native would eventually take his talents to South Beach, where he has been a boon to the Hurricanes’ basketball program, winning both the ACC Regular Season and Tournament Titles in just his second year on the job. In the ten years that have passed, Larranaga has taken the U to the big dance five times, including back-to-back trips to the Elite Eight, where they now have an opportunity to advance to their first Final Four in school history. The experts will tell you that you want to be playing your best basketball during the tourney, and while that sounds like an obvious statement, it’s absolutely true, and the ‘Canes appear to be peaking at the right time; the newly-minted ACC Champions are building quite the head of steam, beating their opponents by an average margin of 12.3 points on 44.1% shooting from the field, though have really gutted them from downtown, where they’ve netted a razor-sharp 39.0% of their treys, while putting in plenty of work on the defensive end of the hardwood in allowing just 39.6% shooting overall, including 30.0% from three, and outrebounding the opposition 38.7-31.7. Furthermore, they’ve been getting to the charity stripe with ease, knocking down 15.7 free-throws per contest, while permitting just 13.7 assists and forcing 10.0 turnovers. When we last saw Miami, they won their second consecutive game in the big dance by fourteen or more points, embarrassing the top seed in the Midwest Region, Houston in an 89-75 blowout victory on Friday night. Indeed, the Cougars’ offensive woes really came back to bite them in this one, particularly against an opponent that simply could not miss as the Hurricanes eviscerated one of the toughest defensive teams in the country. Larranaga’s troops shot a blistering 51.7% from the field, including 20-of-35 form within the arc (57.1%) and 11-of-25 beyond it (44.0%), while assisting on a healthy sixteen of their thirty-one field goals and committing just FIVE turnovers. On the opposite end, the ‘Canes relegated the Cougs to a miserable 37.5% shooting overall, 15-of-33 from within the arc (45.5%) and just 9-of-31 from downtown (29.0%). All five starters scored in double-figures for the denizens of the ACC, led by (Sophomore Guard) Nijel Pack (pictured above), who erupted for a season-high twenty-six points on 8-of-12 shooting (66.7%), including an unconscious 7-of-10 from downtown (70.0%), along with four rebounds and a pair of assists. (Junior Guard) Isaiah Wong added twenty points of his own, with the ACC Player of the Year, scoring nearly half of his points from the charity stripe (9-of-11), while posting another six boards and three assists. Not to be forgotten, (Sophomore Forward) Norchad Omier continued to dominate the glass in this tournament, with his thirteen rebounds running his total to FORTY-FOUR over the last three games. From a betting perspective, Miami is a stellar 21-14 against the spread overall, effectively covering two-thirds of their games this season. They are 6-4 against the spread over the course of their last ten games regardless of the venue, though have strung together three consecutive covers in this big dance. The Hurricanes have also been quite comfortable away from home, covering eight of their last ten trips away from Coral Gables, while absolutely THRIVING as underdogs, with eight covers in their last ten contests when receiving points. With a win tonight, the ‘Canes will be off to Houston to participate in their first Final Four in school history, where they will meet the winner of today’s other Regional Final between (6 Seed) Creighton and fellow resident of the Sunshine State, (9 Seed) Florida Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the highest remaining seed left in this tournament in Texas (29-8, 12-6 in Big XII), who have overcome a wealth of adversity and distractions in reaching this point. As it was well-documented, the program fired (former Head Coach) Chris Beard following his arrest on domestic violence charges in late December, leaving his post in the very capable hands of (Interim Head Coach) Rodney Terry. Of course, Terry knows Austin well, having spent a decade as an assistant under Rick Barnes, before enjoying stints with Fresno State and UTEP, before eventually returning to the burnt orange as Beard’s chief lieutenant last season. So, with nearly thirty games under his belt, can we give the man the full-time job already? Seriously, all the 54-year-old has done is elevate the Longhorns in the face of an embarrassing scandal, leading his team to their second Big XII Tournament Title in school history, while steering them to their seventh Elite Eight, and their first since 2008. Terry has been a calming influence on a group that checks a lot of the boxes that look for in the big dance; they’re experienced with five Seniors at the top of the rotation, including a dynamite backcourt that can wreak havoc on both ends of the court. Like their opponent this evening, the ‘Horns are also peaking at the right time; Bevo & Co have won their last three contests by an average margin of 12.3 points on a stellar 52.2% shooting from the field, including 43.8% from downtown, while dishing out 15.3 assists in comparison to committing just 9.0 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve been relentless in their defensive pressure, permitting just 42.9% shooting overall and 30.0% from three, along with just 8.0 assists and 10.7 free-throw attempts. Essentially, they pressure without fouling, which is a MAJOR key to success in this tournament. When we last saw Texas, they won their seventh consecutive game and their fifth during that stretch by double-figures, eliminating (3 Seed) Xavier with ease, 83-71 on Friday night. This one really wasn’t as close as that final score would lead you to believe, for make no mistake, the Longhorns DOMINATED this one, outscoring the Musketeers 42-25 in the first half before taking their foot off the gas after in the second. For the fourth straight game, Terry’s troops shot 50.0% or better from the field, netting 52.5% of their attempts overall, including 25-of-49 from within the arc (51.0%) and a lights-out 7-of-12 beyond it (58.3%), while assisting on half of their thirty-two field goals. On the flipside, they relegated the X-Men to 43.8% shooting from the field, including 21-of-47 form within the arc (44.7%), and forced as many turnovers as they allowed assists (12), doing so without the presence of (Senior Forward) Dylan Disu, who logged just two minutes of action before being forced to leave the hardwood with an apparent foot injury. With that said, the ‘Horns thrived in his absence with FIVE different players scoring in double-figures, led by (Sophomore Guard) Tyrese Hunter with nineteen points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%), while netting all three attempts from downtown, along with a pair of rebounds, assists, and blocks apiece. (Senior Guard) Marcus Carr (pictured above) and (Senior Forward) Christian Bishop each finished with eighteen points, with the former adding four rebounds and six assists, while the latter led the team with nine rebounds, including three of the offensive variety. (Senior Guard) Sir’Jabari Rice chipped in with another sixteen points off the bench, dishing out three assists to boot. It remains to be seen if Disu will be able to suit up for today’s affair, but as we’ve seen throughout the campaign, this is a veteran-laden team that is accustomed to dealing with adversity. From a betting perspective, Texas is 19-17-1 against the spread this season, though have been on FIRE of late, with just one loss against the spread over their last ten outings, regardless of the venue. The Longhorns have also been rewarded bettors as favorites, with a 7-2-1 record over their last ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers, while riding a 6-game unbeaten run. Furthermore, they are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games against opponents with a win percentage over .600, which is obviously the case tonight. With a win tonight, the ‘Horns will be heading back to the Lone Star State where they will be participating in just the second Final Four in school history, and their first since 2003.