6:09 PM EST, CBS – Line: San Diego State -2, Over/Under: 132
One of the most unpredictable NCAA Men’s Tournaments in years reaches its penultimate stage, as the Cinderella ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls battle the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs for the right to punch their ticket to Monday night’s National Final in this Final Four affair from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. By far and away the most unusual in a lineup of unusual suspects, Florida Atlantic (35-3, 18-2 in CUSA) are on an unprecedented run in this NCAA Tournament, highlighting the sudden growth of a program that hadn’t done anything of note in two decades. Indeed, FAU’s basketball program is a relatively young one, birthed back in 1993 with just four winning seasons and a lone tourney appearance in 2002 to their credit prior to hiring (Head Coach) Dusty May in 2018. The Indiana alum started making a name for himself at Louisiana Tech before following his mentor, Mike White to Florida, where he would spend the next three years as his chief lieutenant. When the Owls came calling, he jumped at the opportunity of building a program from scratch, and what has transpired serves as a perfect example as to why these schools need to be patient with their coaches. In his first four years in Boca Raton, May led his charges to a lukewarm 66-56 (.540) record and 34-32 (.515) mark in conference play, which included three winning campaigns, one short of their total in the previous twenty-five years. However, this season saw the proverbial dam collapse, as Florida Atlantic turned emerged as a juggernaut with a school-record THIRTY-FIVE wins, including a dominant 18-2 run through Conference USA resulting in Regular Season and Tournament Titles. So, how did the 46-year-old do it, you ask? May did it the old-fashioned way: scouting, recruiting, and teaching. No, didn’t repeatedly tap the Transfer Portal, and no, his rotation doesn’t consist of a wealth of upperclassmen. These Owls are mostly Sophomores who have benefitted from growing together, which has paid major dividends on the hardwood, as they’ve been a top-50 team on both ends of the court all season. With that said, in the NCAA Tournament they have simply outworked the opposition; FAU has shot just 42.1% from the field and 31.2% from three, but have helped themselves on the offensive glass (13.0), while defending without fouling as their opponents have made just 8.8 free-throws against them. When we last saw Florida Atlantic, they pulled yet another upset in the form of a thrilling 79-76 victory over (3 Seed) Kansas State last Saturday night, marking their eleventh consecutive win overall. Indeed, the Owls made quite the statement at Madison Sqaure Garden, overcoming a slew of mistakes to eliminate the Wildcats; FAU committed a season high TWENTY-TWO turnovers, but made up for it by getting to the rim and the charity stripe with ease, shooting 17-of-31 from within the arc (54.8%), and netting 18-of-22 free-throws (81.8%). They also manhandled K-State on the glass, outrebounding them 41-16, with their twelve offensive boards nearly matching their opponent’s overall total. This is where (Sophomore Center) Vladislav Goldin really made an impact, with the seven-footer totaling fourteen points and thirteen rebounds, including six of the offensive variety, which created a number of second-chance opportunities that negated that aforementioned rash of turnovers. (Sophomore Guard) Johnell Davis (pictured above) finished with thirteen points on a mild 5-of-12 shooting (41.3%), including 0-of-4 from three, but more than made up for it in other areas with eight rebounds, six assists, a steal and a block apiece. (Fellow Sophomore) Alijah Martin led FAU with seventeen points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%), while (Junior Guard) Bryan Greenlee added another sixteen points of his own as the two players combined to knock down all but two of their team’s three-pointers. From a betting perspective, Florida Atlantic is a stellar 24-11-1 against the spread overall this season, having covered seven of their last ten games regardless of the venue, including three of their four outings in the big dance. The Owls have also done well for themselves on the road, covering the spread in all but three of their last ten trips away from Boca Raton, while also thriving as an underdog, winning six of eight games this season outright when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while matching that mark against the spread. Furthermore, they’ve won and covered all three games that they’ve been an underdog during this tournament. With a win tonight, FAU will continue their magical run as the only Nine Seed in NCAA history to advance to this point of the tourney, while potentially setting up a Sunshine State affair with Miami in the National Championship Game on Monday.
Meanwhile, also for the first time in the history of their respective program, San Diego State (31-6, 15-3 in MWC) is dancing all the way to the Final Four. While they’ve become a regular fixture in the NCAA Tournament with ten appearances over the last fifteen years, this is uncharted territory for the Aztecs, who has routinely flamed out during the second weekend. However, that is not the case this time around, which leaves us to wonder what has changed for SDSU? When you’re looking for dangerous mid-majors that could crash your brackets, there are generally a few traits that you look for, including the following: do they possess experience, depth, and a strong Backcourt? Well, all three apply to the Aztecs, who entered the tournament field as both Mountain West Regular Season and Tournament Champions, for the second time in three years. Indeed, (Head Coach) Brian Dutcher has kept the proverbial ball rolling after taking over for his longtime mentor, Steve Fisher, amassing a stellar 150-46 record (.765) over the last six seasons, with four NCAA Tournament appearances to his credit. The 63-year-old has arguably the deepest rotation in the field, going nine deep with all but two of them being Seniors (the other two are Juniors). Sure, there may be the only one Aztec to score in double-figures this season (Matt Bradley), but there are another seven players who average over 6.0 points per contest. Their depth also affords them the luxury of maintaining their relentless defensive pressure, with Dutcher employing wholesale substitutions as if he were a hockey manager. As a result, SDSU has been one of the toughest defensive units in the country, relinquishing just 63.1 points (25th Overall) on 41.1% shooting from the field (41st Overall), including a scant 28.8% from beyond the arc (6th Overall). Furthermore, there is plenty of length to be found in this group, particularly along the wings where they can clamp down on the opposition. In the big dance alone, they’ve held the opposition below sixty points in all but one of their matchups, while permitting an average of 57.3 points on a miserable 34.1% shooting and 17.0% from downtown, while owning a marked advantage on the glass (+5.3) and yielding a mere 8.8 assists. When we last saw San Diego State, they followed their upset of the number-one overall seed in the tourney, with a narrow 57-56 victory over (6 Seed) Creighton last Sunday Afternoon. As they have throughout this competition, the Aztecs proved that they are adept at winning ugly, which was once again the case as they shot just 37.9% from the field and 3-of-13 from beyond the arc (23.1%). While most teams may find it difficult to overcome such shooting woes, Dutcher & Co have relished such an affair, their size and physicality the offensive juggernaut that is the Blue Jays, relegating the Big East residents well below their own standards, including 40.0% shooting overall and 2-of-17 from downtown (11.8%), while permitting a scant nine assists with as many turnovers. In this case it was quantity over quality, for SDSU made the difference on the offensive glass, where they’re twelve offensive rebounds helped lead to eleven more field goal attempts, which compensates for the low shooting percentage. After shining versus the Crimson Tide on Friday night, (Senior Guard) Darrion Trammel came back to Earth with twelve points on 5-of-14 shooting (35.7%) and 1-of-4 from three (25.0%), though that aforementioned depth proved vital as (Junior Guard) Lamont Butler stepped up with a game-high eighteen points on 8-of-11 shooting (72.7%) and a perfect 2-of-2 from long-range. From a betting perspective, San Diego State is a solid 19-15-2 against the spread overall this season, having covered seven of their last ten games regardless of the venue, including each of their last six outings and all four of their games in the big dance. The Aztecs have won ten consecutive games outright when favored by the oddsmakers, while covering the spread in seven of them, including four of the last five affairs. Furthermore, Dutcher’s troops have covered six straight games contested at neutral sites, while just as many covers when following a straight-up win and five in a row following a cover. Lastly, they are 4-0-1 against the line when favored by 0.5-6.5 points, which is the case tonight. With a win tonight, SDSU will write yet another chapter of history as they participate in their first National Championship Game in school history, which is remarkable for a program that had never progressed past the Sweet Sixteen prior to this tournament run.