10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Warriors -5.5, Over/Under: 239
The NBA Playoffs continue in this exclusive Northern California affair, as the reigning champion Golden State Warriors are desperate to turn the tide and avoid falling into an unenviable 0-3 hole against the upstart Sacramento Kings, in Game Three of their first round series from ORACLE Arena in San Francisco. Before we get into the drama surrounding the Dubs, let’s take some time to shed some light on arguably the best story of this season: the resurrection of the Kings (48-34, 3rd in Western Conference), who snapped the longest running postseason drought in the Association at SEVENTEEN years. Indeed, it’s been a long time coming for Sacramento, who finally shed the label as one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the league to make a seismic leap into dare we say it, contender status. So, how in the hell did they manage to finally turn things around you ask? Well, these paupers turned monarchs did it by hiring the right people, drafting the right players, making some inspired personnel moves, and above all else, putting in THAT WORK. You can trace the rebuild back to 2020 when the franchise hired Monte McNair as their President of Basketball Operations and General Manager, with the longtime executive eventually enacting a controversial trade sending (Guards) Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana in exchange for (All-Star Center) Domantas Sabonis, bringing more balance to the starting lineup and eliminating some of the redundancies from within the rotation. Then, last summer they hired Mike Brown as their Head Coach, giving the 53-year-old his first leading gig since he was fired in Cleveland back in 2014. The franchise’s TWELFTH different skipper over the last seventeen years, Brown has been nothing short of a revelation in the state capital, leading the club to their best record since the 2004-2005 campaign, all the while making them one of the most entertaining sides in the NBA; the Kings led the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game, while ranking second overall in field goal percentage (49.4%), first in two-point percentage (58.6%), ninth in three-point percentage (36.9%), along with third in both free-throws made (19.8) and assists (27.3). It really helps that they have two playmakers at very different positions, with Sabonis operating like a proverbial Swiss army knife in the frontcourt, stuffing the stat sheet with 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, while (All-Star Guard) De’Aaron Fox has emerged as a bonafide STAR in the backcourt. The fifth overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, the 25-year-old often seemed lost in the recurring chaos that used to be Sacramento’s calling card, but he has put it altogether in his sixth season in the NBA, earning his first All-Star nod along the way. The first recipient of the NBA’s Clutch Award (named after Jerry West, of course), Fox (pictured above) has been a joy to watch this season and a blur for those trying to defend him. Just ask the Warriors, who have been nothing short of vexed by the young floor general in this series; in the first two games, Fox has averaged 31.0 points on 46.0% shooting, along with 3.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 3.5 steals. After earning a hard-fought 126-123 victory in Game One, the Kings responded with a 114-106 triumph in Game Two on Monday night, which saw them create havoc in the form of ELEVEN steals leading to twenty-two turnovers for the visitors, which the hosts manufactured into twenty-five points. Fox accounted for four of those thefts, while leading the way alongside Sabonis with twenty-four points apiece. Despite shooting just 9-of-38 from beyond the arc (23.7%), Brown’s troops once again got to the charity stripe with aplomb, netting 21-of-29 attempts (72.4%), while hammering Golden State in the paint (54-40). From a betting perspective, the Kings are a stellar 47-36-1 against the spread this season and have covered six of the last eight meetings with the Dubs. Thye are 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games regardless of the venue, while performing very well in this regard away from Sacramento, covering all but two of their last ten contests away from the raucous crowd at Golden 1 Center. Furthermore, they’ve failed to cover just TWO of their last ten games away to the Warriors, while riding a five-game winning streak against the spread as a road underdog, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, Brown & Co could be without the services of Sabonis, who suffered a chest contusion after a controversial exchange with the Dubs’ Draymond Green (MUCH more on this situation in a bit). The big fella is officially listed as questionable, with his absence potentially creating a MASSIVE hole for the Kings, who will be looking to put their foot on the necks of the defending champions…
Meanwhile, with their backs against the wall, we’re about to see just what the Warriors (44-38, 6th in Western Conference) have in their proverbial bag of tricks as they look to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole against the Kings. Indeed, it’s been nothing short of an uneven season for Golden State, who have followed winning their fourth NBA Championship in eight years with a truly oddball campaign in which they were dominant at home yet hapless on the road, while many notable figures missed a plethora of time due to injuries/off the court issues. So, let’s get into what has ailed these Dubs, shall we? The most persistent problem has been the disparity between their play at home and on the road, which has been nothing short of remarkable for a veteran-laden team with this kind of championship pedigree. At ORACLE Arena, (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops have posted a stellar 33-8 record, averaging 119.7 points on 48.0% shooting, with a +2.8-rebounding advantage along with a healthy 30.5 assists in comparison to committing 14.9 turnovers, while yielding just 111.7 points on 45.1% shooting, 24.2 assists and forcing 13.7 turnovers. Away from San Francisco, they’ve scored a nearly identical 118.2 points on 47.6% shooting, with 29.2 assists, but have seen their turnovers increase to 16.5, while the rebounding margin has dipped into the red (-0.3). However, the biggest difference has been on the defensive end of the hardwood, where they simply haven’t been able to get stops with really any regularity; the Warriors have shipped a miserable 122.3 points per game in this regard on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39.7% from beyond the arc, while permitting 27.2 assists and forcing 13.4 turnovers. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you end up with a dismal road record of 11-30, which stands as the fourth-worst mark posted by a defending champion in NBA history. Sure, (reigning Finals MVP) Steph Curry missed twenty-six games with a variety of injuries this season, while (All-Star Forward) Andrew Wiggins, who was absolutely essential to the championship run last season missed the final twenty-five games due to a serious personal matter, but their respective absences fail to properly explain their team’s Jekyll and Hyde nature. Even at full strength, their defensive woes on the road haven’t subsided, as they’ve found themselves in a bonafide dog fight with the Kings; through the first two games, Kerr & Co have been gashed for 120.0 points on 45.3% shooting from the field, and though they’ve done a solid job of closing out on Sacramento’s shooters, they’ve been bullied on the offensive glass (-11), hammered in the paint (-40), and left in their wake in transition (-8). Furthermore, they’ve had a hard time keeping their opponent off the free-throw line, where they’ve netted 47-of-61 attempts (77.0%) over the two ties opposed to 36-of-45 for themselves (80.0%). Poor defending aside, Golden State is really compounding matters with their lack of care when in possession, for every time they turn the ball over, the Kings are off to the races, which reflects in their miserable -27 differential in points off turnovers, which included TWENTY-FIVE points off twenty-two turnovers in Monday night’s 114-106 defeat. Indeed, this is a lot of @#$% for Kerr’s charges to clean up as the scene shifts to ORACLE for these next two games, and though that would prove difficult enough under normal circumstances, this affair has now been thrown into a maelstrom of uncertainty with the suspension of the aforementioned Green (pictured above), who after being ejected following a controversial exchange with the Kings’ Sabonis in which the former Defensive Player of the Year appeared to stomp on the big man’s chest, was issued the one-game absence late last night. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR turn of events for the Dubs, who will be without one of the finest defensive players in the Association at a time in which they need him most. While it is debatable as to whether his actions in Game Two merited suspension, the veteran’s lengthy history in this regard ultimately sealed his fate. This isn’t the first time that his team has been forced to go to battle without him in the playoffs; Green was suspended for Game Two of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals following an ejection via flagrant foul against the Grizzlies, while his most infamous instance was during the 2016 NBA Finals, in which he was suspended for Game Six following a controversial flagrant foul on LeBron James. Though Golden State managed to eliminate Memphis last May, they ultimately fell to Cleveland in seven games of that memorable Final. From a betting perspective, the Warriors are a mediocre 39-43-2 overall against the spread this season, while covering five of their last ten games regardless of the venue. As we stated earlier, home has been good to them, as they’ve won nine of their last ten contests straight-up at ORACLE Arena, while covering all but two of them along the way. However, Sacramento has proven tricky for them, as they’re just 1-4 over their last five meetings when favored against their NoCal neighbors, while owning a 2-8 record against the spread in their last ten played at home. Furthermore, this particular round of the playoffs has vexed the Dubs of late, as they’re riding a four-game losing streak against the spread in the first round.