7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -13, Over/Under: 229
The NBA Playoffs continue as one team looks to punch their ticket to the next round while another simply tries to remain alive in Game Five of this first round matchup between the second-seeded Boston Celtics and the seventh-seeded Atlanta Hawks, from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. For the second postseason in a row, the Hawks (41-41, 7th in Eastern Conference) are staring down the barrel of a gentleman’s sweep in the first round as they have been thoroughly outplayed by a superior opponent. Last Spring, Atlanta survived the play-in to battle the top-seeded Miami Heat, who embarrassed them in five games. Twelve months later, and these birds once again escaped the play-in only to be paired up with the reigning Eastern Conference Champions, who have handled them with ease. Needless to say, this is NOT what management expected after their stunning run to the East Finals two years ago and certainly NOT what they envisioned when they swung for the proverbial fences in acquiring the services of (2021-2022 All-Star Guard) Dejounte Murray via trade in the offseason. So, what in the name of Dominique Wilkins has happened to these Hawks, you ask? Well, pairing Muray alongside (two-time All-Star) Trae Young (pictured above) was intended to give them one of the best young backcourts in the Association, with the former expected to cover for the defensive liabilities of the latter. While this tandem looked promising on paper, it really hasn’t translated to the hardwood; sure, Atlanta has been one of the better offensive teams in the league this season, ranking seventh overall in offensive rating (116.6) and third in points per game (118.4), but they’ve been a sieve on the defensive end of the court, relinquishing 118.1 points (26th Overall) and a defensive rating of 116.3 (22nd Overall). This imbalance ultimately cost (former Head Coach) Nate McMillan his job after fifty-nine games, leading the organization to hire Quin Snyder to be his successor. It’s been a homecoming of sorts for the 56-year-old, who spent the 2013-2014 campaign as an assistant in the ATL, and for all intents and purposes is expected to be the long-term answer moving forward. However, coming into a new job with just twenty-six games to go is a difficult ask for any coach, particularly one who was unemployed prior to being hired. During his time on the sidelines, the Hawks have been more prolific offensively (123.4 points), netting a stellar 49.3% of their attempts from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc, but they’ve also been worse defensively in yielding a disappointing 122.0 points on 50.5% overall and 37.7% from downtown. Though they looked dominant in their surprising play-in victory over Miami, it’s been a completely different story against Boston; Snyder’s troops have been burned for 120.5 points on 51.0% shooting from the floor and a staggering 42.2% from three, where they’ve outscored them by forty-five points over the course of these four games. In their most recent encounter, a 121-129 loss at State Farm Arena, the hosts simply couldn’t keep up with the visiting side, who shot a torrid 51.7% from the field, including 16-of-40 from long range (40.0%). Young did everything he could to keep it close, pouring in a game-high thirty-five points (twenty-one of which came in the fourth quarter) on 11-of-26 shooting (42.3%), 4-of-10 from three (40.0%), and 9-of-11 from the charity stripe (81.8%), while also dishing out fifteen assists. (Emerging Swingman) De’Andre Hunter was fantastic with twenty-seven points on an efficient 11-of-17 shooting (64.7%) and 3-of-6 from downtown (50.0%), while the aforementioned Murray added twenty-three points on 9-of-20 shooting (45.0%) and 4-of-8 from three (50.0%) with nine rebounds and six assists. However, after the final buzzer sounded, the 26-year-old purposely made contact with an official, earning a clear-cut suspension for tonight’s Game Five. From a betting perspective, the Hawks have been fairly poor against the spread this season in amassing 37-49 record, covering the spread just once in this series and just two of their last ten meetings with the Celtics overall. TD Garden has been a house of horrors in this regard, as they’ve failed to cover five consecutive trips to the Northeast, while posting a miserable 2-8 record against the spread when branded an underdog by the oddsmakers in this particular matchup. Furthermore, there are several other negative trends working against these birds, who are riding a six-game losing streak against the spread in games when they’ve been an underdog of eleven points or greater, which is the case tonight, while also covering just ONE of their last ten encounters with opponents owning a win percentage of .600 or greater, which once again is the case tonight. History is working against Atlanta in this one, for teams that have fallen behind 1-3 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win said series just 4.7% of the time, meaning that the deck is stacked considerably against them in this do-or-die trip to Beantown.
Meanwhile, the Celtics (57-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are on the verge of punching their ticket to the Eastern Conference Semifinals for the second consecutive season, setting up a looming encounter with the 76ers that is sure to be nothing short of a bloodbath much in the same vein as last year’s battle with the Bucks. After coming up short in the NBA Finals, Boston was met with some unexpected adversity in the offseason, as they eventually parted ways with (former Head Coach) Ime Udoka due to a scandal involving a female member of his coaching staff. Indeed, firing a man less than six months after he earned Coach of the Year honors and took the franchise to its first Finals appearance in a decade is far from ideal, but we’ll credit the organization for handling it the way they did and eventually promoting Udoka’s chief lieutenant, Joe Mazzulla to the head gig. And how did this gambit turn out for the shamrocks, you ask? Well, all Mazzulla did was lead them to fifty-seven wins, six more than last year and their most since stringing together back-to-back 60-win campaigns between 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. The key has been growth, for despite being just 34-years old, Mazzulla has done a tremendous job of continuing the work began by his predecessor, further cultivating his troops prowess on the offensive end of the hardwood without compromising the tremendous strides that they made defensively a year ago. On the season, the Celtics finished top-five in the Association in points scored (117.9) and allowed (111.4), along with offensive (118.0) and defensive rating (111.5), while ranking second overall in both three-pointers made (16.0) and attempted (42.6), and seventh in assists (26.7). In all honesty, it’s rather remarkable that they managed to exhibit such growth when you consider how many injuries they endured throughout the season, with five of the top eight players in the rotation missing at least fifteen games apiece. Let’s run down the list, shall we? Mazzulla’s second-leading scorer Jaylen Brown missed fifteen contests due to a facial injury, while (last year’s Defensive Player of the Year) was out for twenty-one games with a variety of maladies. Then there are bigs, Al Horford and Robert Williams, with the former missing nineteen games and the latter only participating in thirty-five outings, twenty of which were starts. So, how did they manage to remain among the East’s elite, you ask? Well, it sure doesn’t hurt having (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum, who just continues to get better with each passing season. It’s hard to believe that this guy is still only 25-yaers old, for he has continued to play well beyond his years. After a campaign in which he posted career-highs in a slew of categories, Tatum (pictured above) has gone on to shatter those figures, averaging 30.1 points on 46.6% shooting, including 35.0% from downtown, along with 8.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. That production has carried on over into this series with the Hawks, who he’s torched for 28.5 points on 44.8% shooting and 40.0% from beyond the arc, along with 9.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.0 block. When we last saw he and the Celtics, they outlasted Atlanta in Sunday evening’s 129-121 victory at State Farm Arena, in which the tandem of Tatum and Brown scored thirty-one points apiece, netting a combined 20-of-42 from the field (47.6%) and 15-of-17 from the charity stripe (88.2%), with eleven rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks. Smart added nineteen points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%) with four rebounds and assists apiece, while (newly minted Sixth Man of the Year) Malcolm Brogdon chipped in with fourteen points, four boards, and four dimes. Furthermore, the aforementioned Williams was healthy and active in this one, totaling thirteen points, fifteen rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals and blocks apiece in just under twenty-nine minutes of action, keying their defensive showing down the stretch. However, arguably the most indispensable player in this series has been (veteran Swingman) Derrick White, who has been balling out on both ends of the court, averaging 19.8 points on a stellar 48.0% shooting and an even better 52.0% from long range, along with 4.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.3 blocks, nailing a plethora of open triples all the while administering suffocating defense on Atlanta’s backcourt. The 28-year-old has been tremendous since Boston acquired him at the trade deadline last year, and when he’s putting up twenty-four or twenty-six points like he did in Games One and Two, this team is VERY difficult to contend with. From a betting perspective, the Celtics were a solid 48-37-1 against the spread this season, while covering the spread in eight of their last ten games regardless of the venue. TD Garden has been good to them of late, with nine wins straight-up and eight covers in their last ten home games, while also posting a solid 7-3 record against the spread as a favorite. As we touched upon earlier, they’ve really owned the Hawks, covering eight out of their last ten meetings, while riding a five-game winning streak in that regard when those encounters have been played in the Northeast. Historically, Boston has had Atlanta’s number in the playoffs, besting them eight times in ten overall matchups with this all but assured to be number nine for as we stated earlier, owning a 3-1 series virtually guarantees victory, with the team that leads winning said series over 95% of the time.