7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Knicks -6.5, Over/Under: 206.5
The second round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs rages on as the New York Knicks look to even the series against the ruthless Miami Heat in Game Two of this Eastern Conference Semifinal from Madison Square Garden. Easily the most surprising team left in these playoffs (or are they?), the Heat (44-38, 7th in Eastern Conference) find themselves presented with a golden opportunity to put their foot on the neck of their opponent and take a commanding 2-0 lead back to South Beach. Wait a minute, wasn’t this team in the Play-In? Yes, Miami looked very much dead in the water after dropping the first of two Play-In games before rallying to avoid disaster against the Bulls. And what did they earn for their troubles, you ask? A first-round date with the Bucks, the number one seed in the East and owner of the best record in the Association. However, rather than simply go through the motions, (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops took it to Milwaukee, stealing Game One (130-117) before eventually eliminating them in five games, becoming just the sixth team in NBA history to upset a one seed in the first round. Of course, this wasn’t necessarily your typical 1/8 matchup, folks, for while the deer were without (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo for the bulk of the first three games, the Heat received an all-time eruption from (All-Star Swingman) Jimmy Butler, who utterly annihilated a unit that many felt was the league’s finest. Over the course of those five games, Butler (pictured above) averaged a ridiculous 37.6 points on a torrid 59.7% shooting from the field, including 44.4% from three, along with 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals, punctuated by a virtuoso FIFTY-SIX points in Game Four (the fourth-most ever scored in a single playoff game in NBA history) before finishing off the Bucks with forty-two points in Game Five. And now the basketball gods have seen it fit to bless with a late 90’s throwback in the form of Miami/New York, a classic rivalry that reveled in its attitude, physicality, and vitriol. With memories of P.J. Brown hurling Charlie Ward into the crowd, Larry Johnson throwing punches as Jeff Van Gundy hangs wildly from Alonzo Mourning’s leg, and Allan Houston’s series-clinching runner to upset the top-seeded Heat providing us with a parade of memories heading into Game One from MSG, Miami continued to do what they do, which is finding ways to win no matter what. It was a slow start for the visitors, who trailed 32-21 after the first quarter, shooting a dismal 7-of-27 from the field (25.9%) and 4-of-17 from beyond the arc (23.5%), but it wouldn’t take long for Butler & Co to find their footing, cutting the deficit to just five points heading into halftime. Then came the third stanza, which is where this affair shifted in favor of the Heat, who would go on to outscore the hosts 31-20, netting a blistering 12-of-21 attempts overall (57.1%), including 5-of-10 from downtown (50.0%), assisting on ten of their dozen field goals. This turning of the tables was aided by the advent of various members of the supporting cast, as (unheralded swingman) Max Strus totaled eight points in the period, while (veteran Forward) Kevin Love, whom they added via the buyout market two months ago turned back the clock with six points and three beautiful outlet passes resulting in six consecutive points in transition. As for Butler, he would account for eight points of his own in the quarter, though the fourth would be a different story as he rolled his right ankle coming down from a midrange jumper, curtailing his effectiveness down the stretch. With that said, his teammates were ready to pick up the slack, as (veteran Point Guard) Kyle Lowry came off the bench to pour in nine crucial points in the final frame, while also making a wealth of plays with a pair of rebounds and assists along with THREE blocks en route to securing a hard-fought 108-101 victory. In the end, Miami shot just 42.4% from the field and 13-of-39 from three-point range (33.3%) but managed to outscore New York by eighteen points in that latter regard, while also besting them from the charity stripe (23-of-29) where they held a +11 advantage. Despite finishing the contest on a bum wheel, Butler totaled twenty-five points on an efficient 8-of-16 shooting from the floor (50.0%) and 9-of-11 from the free-throw line (81.8%), with eleven rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals to his name. Getting back to the supporting cast though, it would have been impossible for this team to have stolen Game One without the play of so many others. After weeks of being a nonfactor due to an ankle injury, Lowry turned back the clock with eighteen points five rebounds, six assists, and four blocks, while (unheralded Guard) Gabe Vincent invoked Steph Curry with a playoff career-high twenty points and five assists, bombing away from the perimeter on 5-of-12 shooting (41.7%). From a betting perspective, the Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last ten games regardless of the venue, including four of their last five and three straight. Being an underdog has suited them very well, as they’ve posted a 7-3 record over their last ten outings when getting points from the oddsmakers, with four covers in their last five such situations. Furthermore, Spoesltra’s charges have covered SIX straight games when playing on one day of rest, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, all eyes will be on Butler, who is listed as questionable with that aforementioned sprained ankle, though given his history we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he suited up tonight and played well at that. Remember, this is a team that is without the services of both (2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (hand) for the remainder of the playoffs, along with (veteran Guard) Victor Oladipo, who tore his patellar tendon during the previous series, so their depth is still very much in question.
Meanwhile, the renaissance of the New York Knicks (47-35, 5th in Eastern Conference) hit a proverbial pothole in last Sunday’s 108-101 defeat, though there is plenty of basketball left to be played in this second-round series between bitter rivals. Before we look at Game One from the perspective of the Knickerbockers, let’s take a moment to reflect on how they got to this point. After missing out on the playoffs altogether last season, New York has returned with a vengeance, bucking meager preseason expectations to advance to the East Semifinals for the first time since 2013. So, how have they done it, you ask? Well, you would be hard-pressed to find many folks outside of the Big Apple gassing up this group last Fall, particularly after their failed attempts to land (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell, who had been flirting with a homecoming for months. However, the organization was never able to come to an agreement with the Jazz for his services, ultimately bowing out of negotiations altogether. However, that failed deal would loom VERY large in the coming months, for it would ultimately prove to be a blessing in disguise as it turned out they didn’t need Mitchell in the first place. That’s because they signed (emerging Guard) Jalen Brunson, who has gone on to exceed every expectation that the anyone could have had for him. After spending the previous four seasons as a member of the Mavericks’ supporting cast, Brunson (pictured above) eventually worked his way into the starting five before authoring some eye-opening performances in last year’s playoffs, which raised the value of the impending free agent considerably. When the opportunity arose to sign with the Knicks, with his father, Rick, serving as an assistant coach, the 26-year-old put pen to paper on a four-year, $104 million contract and has done nothing but live up to those figures, posting career-highs across the board with averages of 24.0 points 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 0.9 steals while netting 49.1% of his attempts from the field, including 41.6% from beyond the arc. Poetically, New York matched up with Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, the team that beat them to signature of the aforementioned Mitchell, setting up what was supposed to be a tightly contested series between the guy they got versus the one that they had pursued doggedly. Well, if we’re looking as the Knicks five-game conquest of the Cavs through that particular lens, then Brunson was the undisputed victor; the first-time All-Star averaged 24.0 points 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2.2 steals as his side won both games at Madison Square Garden with ease before eliminating Cleveland on their home floor in Game Five (106-95). (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s troops emerged victorious due to being the far more physical team, outrebounding their opponent 227-186, aided greatly by a +29 advantage on the offensive glass, while also controlling the tempo of play by getting to the charity stripe, where they were +34 on attempts and +27 on makes. Furthermore, they were relentless in their defensive pressure, forcing seventy-six turnovers (+13) leading to 100 points via those mistakes and a +17 advantage over the course of the series. Shifting to this East Semifinal against the Heat, it’s clear that the Knicks are going to have their work cut out for them, for they benefitted greatly from the Cavaliers’ total lack of postseason experience, which simply isn’t the case in this particular matchup. This was evident in Game One, as Miami was keen to absorb the early onslaught from the home side, who shot a blistering 55.8% from the field, led by fifteen points from Brunson and another thirteen points from (young Swingman) R.J. Barrett, while defensively holding the visitors to just 38.3% shooting through the first two periods of play. However, the second half would prove to be a much different story, as the hosts went ice cold in the third quarter netting a miserable 8-of-24 from the floor (33.3%) and continued to lay brick after brick from the perimeter (2-of-13), with nearly as many turnovers (3) as assists (4). The fourth quarter would see them revert to previous offensive prowess on 9-of-19 shooting (47.4%), but five more turnovers and a curious reluctance to hunt for the aforementioned Butler (who sprained his ankle midway through the period) on the defensive end ultimately crushed their hopes of taking a 1-0 lead in this series. In the end, New York did the bulk of their damage in the paint, where they absolutely hammered the Heat 62-38, which made up for their dismal three-point shooting (7-of-34). However, they struggled from the charity stripe (12-of-20) and were utterly undone by their own mistakes; the Knicks committed thirteen turnovers, which may not sound like an unreasonable number, but they saw Miami manufacture them into TWENTY-TWO points, parlaying to a 14-point deficit for Thibodeau & Co which was clearly decisive in such a close game. Barrett and Brunson finished with twenty-six and twenty-five points, along with seven assists apiece but combined for a miserable 1-of-12 showing from beyond the arc (8.3%) and nine turnovers. (Young Forward) Obi Toppin, who replaced the injured Julius Randle in the starting lineup, played well with eighteen points and eight rebounds, and was the only Knick who could hit paydirt from deep, knocking down four triples. From a betting perspective, the Knicks are 5-4-1 against the spread over their last ten outings regardless of the venue, while covering five of their past ten contests at Madison Sqaure Garden. They’ve matched that record when favored by the oddsmakers, while splitting their last ten encounters with the Heat in terms of covering the spread. On the injury front, it’s getting a bit dicey for New York, who were already without the aforementioned Randle for Sunday’s opener, but could also miss Brunson, who is dealing with soreness in his own ankle, as both players are currently listed as questionable for Game Two.