9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Warriors -6, Over/Under: 227.5
They may be unusually lower seeds in these particular playoffs, but you couldn’t tell after watching the first chapter of what is sure to be an entertaining series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors, who clash once again in Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals from Chase Center. It’s rare that teams are able to successfully remake themselves so late in the season and parlay that into a lengthy playoff run, but that appears to be precisely what the Lakers (43-39, 7th in Western Conference) are doing. After missing the postseason altogether last year and meandering below .500 for roughly two-thirds of the campaign, Los Angeles effectively disassembled their rotation at the Trade Deadline, swapping out six players that were deemed poor fits for their designs in favor of a new cadre of talent that has breathed new life into what was an otherwise mediocre unit. So, let’s run down the changes, shall we? (General Manager) Rob Pelinka earned his money in February, parting ways with the likes of (former MVP) Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Thomas Bryant, and Juan Toscano-Anderson in exchange for the services of (former Laker) D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Mo Bamba over the course of three separate deals. As a result, the Lakers owned the best record in the Association post-Deadline, with an 18-8 record down the stretch to propel them from thirteenth place in the crowded Western Conference to the seventh seed via the Play-In. Simply put, this renovated rotation suits (Head Coach) Darvin Ham’s plans far better than their predecessors, offering better spacing, playmaking, and shot creation on the offensive end, along with size and length in the frontcourt and wings on defense. Indeed, the offense has opened up over the last two months, as Los Angeles has averaged 118.0 points on a healthy 48.7% shooting, including 37.1% from beyond the arc, along with 25.5 assists in comparison to committing 13.0 turnovers. With that said, they key for Ham’s troops has been a historic disparity from the charity stripe, where the club led the league in free-throws attempted (26.6), while yielding the fewest attempts to their opponents (20.8). Think about that for a moment, for this is a team that attempted 476 more free-throws than the opposition this season, while netting 372 more singles over the course of the campaign. That advantage has only become more pronounced in the playoffs, where they milked it for everything that they could in Tuesday night’s thrilling 117-112 victory over the Warriors, which saw the visitors calmly step to the line and knock down 25-of-29 free-throws (86.2%) opposed to a scant 5-of-6 from the hosts. Ham clearly had a particular gameplan in mind for the defending champions, as (eight-time All-Star Forward) Anthony Davis remained in the paint to guard the rim, while the rest of his teammates hounded the Dubs’ Steph Curry (much more on him in a bit) at the expense of serving up a plethora of three-point opportunities to his teammates. The results were telling: Golden State netted a ridiculous 21-of-53 treys, outscoring the visiting side by a staggering FORTY-FIVE points in that regard, but Los Angeles eviscerated them in the paint (54-28), while enjoying a +20 advantage from the free-throw line. Per Ham’s orders, his charges closed off the paint, racking up fifty-three rebounds and TEN blocks, which has certainly been a theme of this postseason, with a playoff high SIXTY-FIVE blocks, thirty of which attributed to the aforementioned Davis (pictured above). Though he has certainly laid some eggs in the playoffs thus far, the 30-year-old has also authored some truly dominating performances, and Game One may just be the best of the bunch; Davis became just the fifth player in NBA history to record thirty points and twenty rebounds in the playoffs, and the first Laker to do so since Shaquille O’Neal roughly twenty years ago, racking up thirty points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.9%), twenty-three rebounds, five assists and four blocks. That quartet of swats doesn’t begin to count the myriad of shots that he altered, particularly during a second half in which he played the ENTIRE twenty-four minutes, including a late block of Curry in the waning minutes of play with the game very much on the line. (Four-time MVP) LeBron James finished with twenty-two points on just 9-of-24 shooting (37.5%) and 1-of-8 from downtown (12.5%), eleven rebounds, four assists, and three blocks, though was buoyed by a strong showing from the supporting cast as Russell and (Backup Point Guard) Dennis Schroder accounted for nineteen points apiece along with five rebounds, nine assists, and a pair of steals. Shroder along with Vanderbilt and Austin Reaves did a tremendous job of hounding the aforementioned Curry all over the hardwood, though it will be interesting to see if they can continue this approach moving forward, particularly after the Warriors opted to have him take matters into his own hands and play less off the ball late in the affair. From a betting perspective, the Lakers have covered the spread in four consecutive meetings with the Dubs, while also posting a 4-1 record against the spread over the last five games overall regardless of the opponent. Though 5-5 against the spread in their last ten outings away from the City of Angels, they have thrived as underdogs, covering all but three of their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered five straight games in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Meanwhile, for the second consecutive series, the Warriors (44-38, 6th in Western Conference) find themselves trailing after the opening salvo, though they hope that this particular matchup with the Lakers will turn out just like its predecessor did less than a week ago. For the first time since drafting Curry (pictured right) back in 2009, Golden State trailed a series 0-2 in their first-round affair with Sacramento, who they would eventually conquer in a thrilling seven-game set. After struggling like hell on the road throughout the course of the regular season, the Dubs stormed into Golden 1 Center and left victorious not once, but TWICE, including a triumphant Game Seven in which they trounced the hosts, 120-100, headlined by a staggering FIFTY points courtesy of Curry, the first 50-point performance in a Game Seven in NBA history. By now we know the story when it comes to the home/road splits for this team, as (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops were a stellar 33-8 at Chase Center opposed to a miserable 11-30 everywhere else, posting the third-worst road record for a defending champion. So, what has been the problem, you ask? Well, this unit has left a lot to be desired defensively in this regard, shipping 122.5 points per game on 48.6% shooting and 39.7% from beyond the arc, which equates to a 10.8-point increase for their opponents. However, their defense was nothing short of impressive against the Kings, relegating the highest-scoring team that the NBA has seen in over thirty years well below their standards with 113.7 points on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 30.6% from downtown, with 22.0 assists in comparison to forcing 14.0 turnovers. Keep in mind that this is a team that was rarely completely healthy during the regular season, as Curry missed twenty-six games due to a variety of ailments, while (versatile Forward) Andrew Wiggins participated in just thirty-seven contests, missing the final twenty-five outings due to personal reasons. In fact, after featuring those two players alongside (longtime stalwarts) Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in the starting lineup in nineteen of the first twenty-four games, that quartet would only see the floor together EIGHT times the rest of the way. Armed with a full complement of weapons, it’s been a very different story in the playoffs, which now brings us to Tuesday night’s insane 112-117 loss to the Lakers, marking just the third time that Kerr’s side has tasted defeat in a Game One on their home floor. There is an awful lot to unwrap in this one, as the hosts shot a ridiculous 21-of-53 from beyond the arc (39.6%), where they outscored Los Angeles by a whopping FORTY-FIVE points. However, that volume from the perimeter was out of necessity as the visitors completely closed off the paint, with their size and length giving the Dubs a wealth of issues every time they drove to the rim. Case in point: Kerr’s charges attempted exactly as many shots from three as they did from two, netting just 22-of-53 inside the arc (41.5%) and were outscored by twenty-six points in the paint. And then there was the disparity from the charity stripe. We covered how good the Lakers are at getting to the line and limiting their opponents attempts from there, but the Warriors have been the complete opposite; no team in the Association attempted fewer free-throws (20.2), while in turn shipping the sixth-most attempts from the line (25.2), with a -412 margin on total attempts and a -275 difference on total makes. Talk about strength versus weakness… And it is with that said that Golden State shot a mere 5-of-6 from the stripe (83.3%), with Los Angeles outscoring them by TWENTY points in that regard, which when coupled with the disparity in the paint completely washed away their massive advantage from downtown. Curry led the team with twenty-seven points but did so on just 10-of-24 shooting (41.7%), while Thompson and (emerging Guard) Jordan Poole added twenty-five and twenty-one points respectively, with the triumvirate shooting a combined 18-of-40 from long-range (45.0%). Wiggins would finish with fifteen points, while (veteran Center) Kevon Looney was a monster on the boards with TWENTY-THREE rebounds, while doing his best to combat the aforementioned Davis in the paint. Looking ahead to tonight’s second chapter, it will be interesting to see how Kerr adjusts, for there were a number of things that he introduced late in Game One that could gain traction; putting the ball in Curry’s hands from the inbound allowed the reigning Finals MVP to create more space for himself and helped key a late 14-0 run that very nearly saw the Dubs retake the lead, while a shift to zone defense completely disrupted any rhythm the Lakers had after building a brief 14-point lead. From a betting perspective, the Warriors have failed to cover four consecutive encounters with the Lakers dating back to the regular season, while posting a mediocre 5-5 record against the spread over their last ten contests regardless of the opponent. They have also matched that mark over their last ten games at home and when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, being favored against Los Angeles hasn’t been good to them, as Golden State has covered the spread in only four of their last ten meetings when giving up points, including each of the last three such affairs.